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Everything posted by billsfan89
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Masterclass by McD - drops the Pats from #1 overall to #4
billsfan89 replied to Einstein's topic in The Stadium Wall
If Kraft is truly willing to hand over control of the organization to a coach then it isn't a bad job. You have a young QB in place, you have the number 4 pick and a decent amount of draft capital overall while also being in a good position cap space wise. The question is will Kraft actually be hands off and let a regime come in and have 3 years to fully execute a rebuild properly? If Kraft hands the keys over to a regime it's not a bad job but if you are dealing with a meddling owner it is not an appealing job at all. -
I am not saying that great teams don't have elite non-QB players, but rather that you don't always need 10 elite players to win. KC has 2-3 really good defensive players but it's not a star studded roster on defense. On offense Kelce hasn't been a star player for a couple of years and I don't see much elite talent outside of Mankins and Humphries on the offensive line. They just mainly have a lot of solid starting caliber players contributing their roles and executing a system around an electric QB. I think KC stopped having completely stacked star laden rosters after they traded away Tyreke Hill and started paying Mahomes on a big contract. I also am not so sure a "war daddy" pass rusher whose turning 30 on a massive contract and will cost a ton of valuable draft capital is the missing piece either. As good as Garrett is I think the Bills needs on defense won't fully be solved by adding Garrett. Don't get me wrong Garrett would tremendously help the team but he wouldn't be a panacea either. I also disagree that finding "good" but not elite players like Groot, Shakir, Bernard, and Cook are players you can rather easily "find". I do agree that they are certainly easier to find than an elite talent like Garrett but I also don't think those types of players don't hold very good value either. I also think the value of finding an elite talent in the draft is so much greater than trading a lot of draft capital for an elite talent so having more picks means a better chance to find those elite players at the beginning of their career. In the end my philosophy comes down to is Garrett at a cost of a lot of draft and cap capital going to be that last big piece that puts the team over the top? I don't think he will be and I think the long term damage that such a move could yield is not worth the risk.
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Masterclass by McD - drops the Pats from #1 overall to #4
billsfan89 replied to Einstein's topic in The Stadium Wall
Generally I agree, it's a nice side effect of the game to have hurt the Pats draft slot but in the end the Pats fortunes are gonna rest largely on how good or bad Drake Maye and their next coaching staff is so it is not as though the Bills did all that much damage. -
Masterclass by McD - drops the Pats from #1 overall to #4
billsfan89 replied to Einstein's topic in The Stadium Wall
I think the Jets will only drop 1 spot if they win which isn't too bad. Going from the 5/6 slot to 7/8 while bad isn't tragic. Going from 1 to 4 is a big drop relatively speaking. -
Masterclass by McD - drops the Pats from #1 overall to #4
billsfan89 replied to Einstein's topic in The Stadium Wall
Broncos just blowing out KC 24-0 at the half kind of took the wind out of the sails of the Fins and the Jets looked locked in to play spoiler. -
Masterclass by McD - drops the Pats from #1 overall to #4
billsfan89 replied to Einstein's topic in The Stadium Wall
I think Pats fans were hoping to have the number 1 pick and sell it off to the highest bidder to get picks. The Bears got a haul for the Bryce Young pick adding a 2nd rounder and DJ Moore while also adding a future 1st and 2nd rounders to their back pockets. Pick 4 is still gonna land them a premium prospect but not having pick 1 is a kick in the pants for them. I honestly think the Bills could have won had they stuck with Mitch. -
I think the difference in the way I look at NFL roster is that unlike the other big 4 sports (outside of QB) the need for star players is not as dramatic. The NFL is almost the ultimate "Quantity over Quality" league in that it's almost more about having no weaknesses and some depth as opposed to having 3-4 "star" players on each side of the ball. I look at KC the gold standard currently and the Brady era Pats the old gold standard and I often saw/see those teams being more so about consistently finding "starting caliber" players in the draft and developing a solid overall team around an elite QB. The Pats from the 2001-2006 run had a few elite defensive players but were mostly a bunch of role players and solid starters sprinkled in around 3-5 elite to very good defensive players (Seymour, Ty Law, and Bruschi types) and an offense that was Tom Brady and decent but not spectacular supporting cast. I think that the Bills despite clearing out a lot of veterans and trading away Diggs have assembled a very good roster around Josh and they have a chance to build a better team once the dead cap clears and they have a nice complement of draft picks. The Bills have a top 5 offensive line in the league around Josh, a top 5-7 RB core, a top 5 TE combination, and a better than average WR group now that they acquired Cooper. The Bills defensively are a better than average unit who while susceptible to some lapses aren't a bad unit at all. I get the feeling to add those 1-2 big pieces to get the team "over the top" but that's usually not the most prudent way to build the roster. Draft and develop add some free agency pieces as needed. Trading away a haul of picks for a 30 year old pass rusher on a massive contract is just not seeming like a fantastic move to me as injuries to that one player can derail the resources that could have produced 2-3 starters and 2-3 depth pieces. Chase Young is a free agent and given that he's not really lived up to his draft status and been banged up the Bills could probably add him for sub 10 million. Really reminding me of the Clowney career trajectory where he gets good but not massive 1 year deals for teams looking to patch the edge for a season but no team ever wanting to commit fully.
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"Pro Bowler" is arbitrary and a rather bad metric to determine the quality of a team around Josh Allen. Benford didn't make the Pro-Bowl but he's still a dam good player. I would rather the team have more shots to find cheap good starting caliber players around Josh and on defense than sinking in a lot of picks and cap space that could be used to resign younger developing draft picks like Groot, Shakir, Cook, Benford, and Bernard. I get that the Bills want to "win now" but sometimes making an aggressive move has bad unintended consequences.
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30 for a defensive linemen is at the end rage of their prime years as they tend to "fall off" around age 32-34. Von was still very good in 2022 he was on pace for 12.5 sacks that year despite only playing 55% of the teams defensive snaps but he got hurt and that's hurt his production never recovered fully (I would say that while Von was abysmal in 2023 he's been a decent player in 2024 still far from what Von was in 2022). The difference would be that while you get a significantly younger player in Garrett you are also giving up draft capital and cap space for a player whose still on the older range of things. So while there is still a big chasm between 30 and 33 it is still a bit risky to invest the draft and cap capital into an older player like that. Also given how good the Bills have been at drafting I would rather McBeane work the draft more and try and find a few upper mid-level talents like they did with Connor McGovern to plug some holes.
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Spencer Brown deserves his own thread.
billsfan89 replied to Buffalo_Stampede's topic in The Stadium Wall
Brown after a promising rookie season in 2021 was one of the worst RT's in the league in 2022. How far he's come that he's a beloved part of the team and everyone is thinking this massive extension he signed in 2024 is suddenly a bargain. -
What would it take? Below is my estimation. I think this would accompany Garrett restructuring his contract and the Browns possibly taking some money on given the hefty return. Bills get Myles Garrett 2025 5th round pick 2026 6th round pick Browns get Bills 2025 1st round pick Bears 2025 4th round pick Bills 2026 2nd round pick Bills 2025 6th round pick Bills 2026 5th round pick I think this amounts to quite a good haul for the Browns who get a late 1st, a early 4th, and a 2nd in 2026 for a soon to be 30 year old pass rusher plus a favorable pick swap in 2026 on late round picks. The Bills get their man and keep both their 2nd round picks in 2025 and get back a 5th in 2025 to ease the loss of picks. There's also a favorable 5th for a 6th swap going the Browns way in 2026. For me I think given how good the past few draft classes have looked very good (2022 and 2023 look great while the early returns on 2024 are solid) I would rather the Bills not plunge a lot of draft resources and cap space into a 30 year old player.
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While I think Vrabel is actually a solid choice for the Jets but even if they manage to get a good coach in there I just don't think they will turn it around unless the owner stops meddling in the teams operations. Woody Johnson has turned into the 2000's and early 2010's James Dolan and the Jets are just as dysfunctional as the Knicks were.
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Shakir, Keon, and Samuel are all signed for next season, if the Bills want Hollins back they could easily sign him to a modest 1 year deal. I do wonder how they will approach replacing Cooper? I think there is a need for a true "Go to" boundary WR to replace Cooper in that role. Shakir is a slot machine and Keon I think can be a nice boundary WR2 while Samuel is a "supped up" gadget WR and Hollins a nice WR4/5 depth player. Do the Bills sink another high draft pick at WR hoping that Keon takes a step up and they can backfill the role? Or do they peel off some cap space and go after a vet or trade for a WR? I'd wager they would likely spend a draft pick in round 1 or 2 and then keep their options open for an in season trade if a vet is needed. But it is still going to be a big need assuming Cooper walks for one last bite at the free agency dollars.
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The issue with the Jets is coaching. The collection of talent is actually good even factoring in that Rodgers is at best a mid-level QB at this point in his career. But the Jets entered the season with a head coach who was not prepared to manage Rodgers and work around the defense having a little less talent. The head coach also didn't have a quality OC in place either. The talent was there for the team to at least push past 8 wins if they just had mid-level or better coaching and organizational infrastructure.
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Will Josh Start vs. Pats* (Josh's start streak)
billsfan89 replied to Heavy Kevi's topic in The Stadium Wall
I suspect they will hand the ball off to Davis and then have Mitch take the rest of the game. -
Week 17, NJ Jest v. Bills, GAME BALLS!
billsfan89 replied to Freddie's Dead's topic in The Stadium Wall
Total team domination effort but I think the following players deserve a game ball. Defense 1- Groot - Made the big stop on 4th and a foot early on which set the tone and kept the Jets off the board early. Plus he tipped the ball that was picked by Jordan Phillips. 2- Jordan Phillips - Great pick off the Groot tip. Smartly gave himself up after picking it off to avoid a fumble. 3- AJE - Opened the game out to a two possession lead with the safety sack big play. Offense 1- Josh Allen - Dude is just always out there making plays 2- Amari Cooper - Shows you why this offense needs him made the big play that effectively closed the game out pushing the lead to a three possession lead. -
Josh piled up 3 more TD's in an effort that locked up the two seed. I think he should get the MVP.
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12/29/24 GAMEDAY Week 17 Bills vs Jets 2nd Half Thread
billsfan89 replied to BuffaloBill's topic in The Stadium Wall
Bills get an irrelevant week 18 game because they locked up the two seed and thus give themselves a pseudo bye week. -
12/29/24 GAMEDAY Week 17 Bills vs Jets 2nd Half Thread
billsfan89 replied to BuffaloBill's topic in The Stadium Wall
Some penalties have derailed a couple of offensive drives. Frustrating as it could easily be a 3 possession lead but also the Jets had they managed to execute in the redzone better could be down just one possession or even up. The old cliche of a few plays making the difference is true. -
12/29/24 GAMEDAY Week 17 Bills vs Jets 2nd Half Thread
billsfan89 replied to BuffaloBill's topic in The Stadium Wall
Bills got a two possession lead to start the second half, can't complain too much. Defense let up some yards but made the big plays. -
12/29/24 GAMEDAY Week 17 Bills vs Jets 1st Half Thread
billsfan89 replied to BuffaloBill's topic in The Stadium Wall
Even if your season wasn't over you make that call. Just couldn't execute -
12/29/24 GAMEDAY Week 17 Bills vs Jets 1st Half Thread
billsfan89 replied to BuffaloBill's topic in The Stadium Wall
Defense with the huge stop! -
These posts can't be serious...
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12/29/24 GAMEDAY Week 17 Bills vs Jets 1st Half Thread
billsfan89 replied to BuffaloBill's topic in The Stadium Wall
Amazing to overcome two bad penalties that got this team into bad down and distance situations and get a TD. Team looks very sharp on offense. -
I like the Rams as a dark horse. Eagles/Lions are the two juggernauts and the Vikings/Packers/Commanders are all boasting solid records but the Rams should they secure their division are in a position where I can see them going on a run. I also like Tampa Bay for a dark horse as well should they win their division mainly because they still have that “championship DNA” like the Rams but also Baker is a tough QB and the Bucs have a solid overall amount of talent when healthy