Billsrhody

Luck is #4 in total QBR (espn metric). http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr I think this is a better representation of where QBs rank.

Wow.. watching this a couple times I think spiller actually would've scored. his man had dropped off of him and no one was close to him.. he would have had one man to beat.

P1: QB P2: ILB, OLB P3: WR

Surprise Surprise

You cant make that argument.. teams play defense differently when they're up by 30 points.

So because they have some overlapping ideology they're "basically the same guy"?

I think we really need either the #1 or #2 pick this year to lock up either Geno Smith or Matt Barkley.. if we lose to the pats, we shouldn't win another game.

Per Todd McShay: The most underrated quarterback in the country? ESPN NFL draft analyst Todd McShay said it’s Alabama junior AJ McCarron. “This guy keeps getting a little better every time I watch him in terms of the little things you have to do to be a successful quarterback,” McShay said during a teleconference with reporters this morning. “I’d love to see him come back for his final year of eligibility and just continue to ascend. “It wouldn’t shock me if we’re talking for the 2014 draft A.J. McCarron as a potential top 20 overall draft pick because he’s got enough tools. I just I like the way he plays the game.” McShay said he is aware of the reputation of Alabama quarterbacks being asked to manage games and little else. He said that might’ve hurt how some view McCarron. “I feel he got typecast coming into the year because he’s an Alabama quarterback,” he said. McShay added that McCarron does manage the game well, but also has a good arm. “He has a good arm,” McShay said. “It’s not elite, but it’s very good. He can make all the NFL throws. He’s really good in terms of his accuracy throwing on the run.”

You do realize that Barkley could go #1 overall? I think you're in the minority on that one...

No I watched the whole thing. He wasn't good up until that last drive, but he was good when it counted. Besides that he's having a great year.. building off of a good year last year. He's got prototypical size and seems like a pretty smart well spoken kid. Whats not to like?

Just watched him drive down the field to win the game against LSU's defense.. he made a believer out of me. I'd love to see him in a bills uniform next year.

I really like Geno Smith but I do think Barkley will be better than him. I want one of those two guys though no matter what.. I dont want another second rate QB prospect.

Roethlisberger is no better than Vick? Seriously? Although I would rather draft a QB.. Big Ben is 5 times as good as Vick.

I'm not saying those players are in those categories right now, just that they're likely to end up there. If Matt Ryan's career plays out like Donovan McNabbs then he would end up being above average too.. I think most people would say that Ryan will end up having a better career than McNabb. The guy is only 27. By all accounts luck is going to be great and Griffin probably will as well except for the injury concerns. Ponder has had a couple of bad games but he's only in his second year and looks like he has the stuff to play in this league. You're right, he hasnt been great this year. But I'm not trying to say how good he is now, just how he'll be viewed at the end of his career.

Hear what you guys are saying about there being an average category.. although I think you pull about an equal number of guys from both the above average pool and the below average pool so that it wouldn't really make a difference. I made sure I distributed the recent rookies pretty evenly too so I wasn't too optimistic on all of them. If you get a "great" QB 16% of the time, I would almost spend every first round pick on a QB until I was sure I had one.

Yea you're probably right. I just wanted to have a clear split one way or another. I think Culpepper and Pennington are closer to above average than they are to below average. They were good starters in the league for multiple years. With the new guys I just used what we've seen so far but I agree that there isn't much evidence to support either way. I think no matter what.. we definitely need to spend a first round pick on a QB this year.

I decided to do a little research and look at every QB drafted in the first round over the last 15 years (43 in total). I broke them into four categories in order to evaluate them (Great, Above Average, Below Average, Bust). You can check out how I ranked them below. I used my best guess on the guys that are less than 3 years out but I tried to do it as objectively as possible. This is what I came up with overall: 16.3% great 30.2% above average 30.2% below average 23.3% bust If you look at just QBs drafted in the top 10 (26 in total): 19.2% great 30.8% above average 26.9% below average 23.1% bust So essentially it looks like you have pretty much exactly a 50% chance of getting something good out of drafting a QB in the top 10. Surprisingly, the odds dont drop off too much for the entire first round (46.5%). The Bills are 0/1 in the past 15 years on drafting guys in the first round, they really haven't taken too many chances. Odds are the next one will work out, right? The potential first round picks in this years draft are: M Barkely (USC) G Smith (WV) T Wilson (ARK) L Jones (OU) Gotta get one of the first 2 in my option.. here's to hoping we do. Here's my research: QBs Drafted 1998 - P Manning (1), R Leaf (2) 1999 - T Couch (1), D McNabb (2), Ak Smith (3), D Culpepper (11), C McNown (12) 2000 - C Pennington (18) 2001 - M Vick (1) 2002 - D Carr (1), J Harrington (3), P Ramsey (32) 2003 - C Palmer (1), B Leftwich (7), K Boller (19) , R Grossman (22) 2004 - E Manning (1), P Rivers (4), B Roethlisberger (11), JP Losman (22) 2005 - A Smith (1), A Rodgers (24), J Campbell (25) 2006 - V Young (3), M Leinart (10), J Cutler (11) 2007 - J Russell (1), B Quinn (22) 2008 - M Ryan (3), J Flacco (18) 2009 - M Stafford (1), M Sanchez (5), J Freeman (17) 2010 - S Bradford (1), T Tebow (25) 2011 - C Newton (1), J Locker (8), B Gabbert (10), C Ponder (12) 2012 - A Luck (1), R Griffin (2), R Tannehill (8), B Weeden (22) Great (7) P Manning, E Manning, P Rivers, B Roethlisberger, A Rodgers, M Ryan, A Luck Above Average (13) D McNabb, D Culpepper, C Pennington, M Vick, C Palmer, A Smith, J Cutler, J Flacco, M Stafford, C Newton, J Locker, C Ponder, R Griffin Below Average (13) D Carr, B Leftwich, R Grossman, J Campbell, V Young, B Quinn, M Sanchez, J Freeman, S Bradford, T Tebow, B Gabbert, R Tannehill, B Weeden Bust (10) R Leaf, T Couch, Ak Smith, C McNown, J Harrington, P Ramsey, K Boller, JP Losman, M Leinart, J Russell

You conveniently left out half of the QBs who are starting in the NFL who were drafted in rounds 1-3 over the past decade.

I wish he didnt play so poorly against the one good opponent he faced. @ South Carolina 11-31 (35.5%) 109 yds, 0 td, 1 int. What happened to the WR?

Kind of curious now.. who would you not trade Fitz for?

Why wouldn't they run a screen or a draw? Something that had very low risk and still had the potential to get the first down? Then they could have punted and pinned Tennessee deep. That would have been a better plan wouldnt it have?

and of my BC eagles!

Good thought.. the raiders will give up a 2nd round pick in 2013, unless they reach the AFC Championship this year (then it becomes a 1st). Unfortunately we'll probably be competing with Oakland and KC for the rights to draft the best QB in the draft.