Magox

I am convinced that the biggest weakness we had against the Chiefs was the inability to disguise coverages and take Mahomes off of his first read. He was getting the ball out in 2.29 seconds which means no matter who who the Bills would have had whether it was a Myles Garrett or Max Crosby it wouldn’t have made a lick of difference on those first read throws which was the vast majority of his drop back passes. There are a few reasons for this, one being that the scheme was entirely too predictable and Mahomes knew pre snap exactly where he was going to go. Another reason was personnel issues at CB, Benford has become a decent press man cover corner even though his wheel house is more suited for zone - man match defensive coverage. When Benford went out, the Bills lost their best press man cover corner and all that was left was Rasul who is below average on man to man coverage and Kair who was utterly rudderless meaning that this severely impacted the Bills ability to blitz and the available aggressive schemes they could dial up. The Bills only blitzed 6 times and Mahomes was 3 for 4 with 3 first downs on those blitzes. Here is an example of how badly Rasul covered one of those plays. I am also convinced that McD who at heart loves coaching the DB aspects of the game must have been extremely frustrated this year watching the Bills secondary get sliced up on third downs and not being able to stop top tier passers from throwing on his defense. The Bills very likely will not bring back Kairr nor Douglas and I do not believe they will be satisfied with entrusting a rookie boundary CB to play the critical role of pairing up with Benford. I think they will go for a DB who excels at press man and zone man match defense and for me the big splash signing this FA should be DJ Reed. He is really good at playing man to man, he’s only 28 years old, he has the quickness to hang with KC’s quicker WR’s. He’s ultra competitive, he’s got that dawg in him, knows the division very well and probably can be had for around $13-15m a year sort of deal. Having him and Benford will allow the defense to scheme up more disguises, have more pressure packages and allow the defense to dictate more on high leverage moments.

He will be in the $12 -$14m range. RB valuations were too low the pendulum swung too low and it will come back to a more reasonable medium.

Obviously I would love to have Max Crosby but honestly it doesn’t make a lot of sense. He would cost at least two first rounders at a bare minimum and lots of money, which means other key players probably wouldn’t be able to be extended. I think allowing Solomon to develop and extending Rousseau and having Smoot and Epenesa there along with either a 1st round or one of the two second round picks towards a pass rusher would make the most sense. Cut Von and go get yourself the best man to man DB available in FA (DJ Reed) would be my preferred route. We already have 2 safeties that play the Chinn role in Rapp and Bishop. The safety type player they need is the one who can make plays on the ball and not allow the deep passes. Justin Simmons fits that role and despite his age he has lots of experience and is a playmaker. He shouldn’t cost that much either.

Oh god, we are now at the stage of blaming Josh for not working out hard enough 🙄

In terms of his physical tools and the explosiveness and twitch he plays with, he's extremely unique. If he was a better catcher of the ball, he wouldn't be around at the end of the 2nd round. The Bills would have to do their homework and see if they could develop him, if they think they could then he would excite me more so than any other receiver that would be available at the end of the 2nd round. We know that the Bills like their receivers to be able to block and we know that they want to attack the field vertically more, McD said as much in his presser, I think he's the sort of physical profile of a player that they will take a long hard look at.

Of course we are not far off, which is why usually all these hot takes right after the game are usually silly. Beane said as much, there isn't much to change and that if they had the opportunity with 3 minutes left down 3 with the ball in Josh's hands that he'd sign right up for that. We had our chances and we could have won that game. With that said that doesn't mean there aren't things to improve and for me, first and foremost is changing up the defense to play more man to man and to disguise your looks. Mahomes/Andy Reid killed us with their first options. Mahomes was throwing to his first option most of the time, which means no matter who you had rushing the passer it wouldn't have made a flip of a difference on those passes. Mahomes averaged 2.29 seconds per pass, that is indicative of a defensive scheme issue more so than a player personnel one. Secondly, we will need to replace Elam/Douglas and my first option is that we go into FA and the splash signing should be DJ Reed. He is a man to man specialist, knows the division very well and has a fierce competitive edge to him. He's quick and should be able to match up against KC's quicker receivers. He and Benford both manning the outside should allow a lot of flexibility for the defense to run more blitzes. Third, go after a guy like Calais Campbell who is an ageless wonder, still very powerful against the run and he's got that dawg in him. Not sure if you guys have seen his defensive speeches right before games but he's a natural leader and would add juice to the defensive line to shore up the run. In the draft with your three premium picks get an Edge rusher, Run stuffing DT and a WR. Get more help at safety and CB with some other draft picks and need to see Javon Soloman, Cole Bishop, Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid take up their games another notch. The offense is going to be really good again, that's pretty much set unless injuries plague them. The defense for me is what needs most of the revamping and honestly I think it's more schematic than anything else.

This guy with one of the second round picks could be interesting. He will probably be the fastest guy in the combine. Incredibly talented just is kind of raw and had issues with drops. He plays as fast as what his timed speed is which will be in the 4.2’s Good physical blocker as well. If he has his head on straight and works on his craft I could see him being a game breaking WR.

Our offense is not a boundary WR centric offense. You are all dreaming if you think there will be a premium pick or FA selection this upcoming year at the boundary WR spot. They will hope that Keon develops and look to get a competent replacement for Amari if he doesn't return. The only way they would use a premium pick is if the player was too good to pass up. This will be a year when both FA pickups and premium picks will be used on the defensive side of the ball.

This draft is loaded with DT’s which is the biggest need that the Bills have. CB will be another huge need as well with Rasul and Kair most likely not returning.

This is exactly what I’ve been saying the past couple days. People can want to blame Rousseau or Von and the lack of pressure, but it would be misguided blame. Andy Reid schemes open plays and Mahomes was able to read the plays pre snap and he was consistently throwing to his first option and each time it was netting 8-12 yarders. The problem wasn’t personnel from the ends, you could have had Myles Garrett and he wouldn’t have gotten to Mahomes on time. You can’t when Mahomes is getting the ball out in 2.29 seconds. The defense has to show new looks and disguise their coverages more effectively and not have Mahomes constantly throw it to his first read. The biggest problem from the defensive side wasn’t personnel but rather our defensive gameplan and it’s predictably

I would say 10 - 15 more years

I'm as pained as anyone but this idea that you are going to get rid of the entire defense and start over is ludicrous. Who are you going to replace them with? I'm ok with replacing certain players but you better have someone in place to take over their spot that you think can do the job better or just as well at the least. Honestly, the biggest problem on the defensive side of the ball wasn't individual efforts from the players, it was schematic. How many passes did Mahomes make where he threw the ball to his first read within 2.25 seconds? Tons Time after time the Chiefs were able to scheme up where someone would be open very quickly and time after time Mahomes was able to read it pre snap and know exactly where he was going to throw it and time after time that player was pretty open for an easy 8 yarder. They just ran horizontal routes all day long and they executed them, not to mention the Mahomes called runs which we had no answers for. The defensive philosophy needs to change, they need to run more disruptive plays/blitzes, they need to have lots more disguised coverages with men in the box and they need the CB's who can execute man to man coverages for these sort of plays. With that said, here are the list of Unrestricted FA's RB Ty Johnson FB Reggie Gilliam WR Amari Cooper WR Mack Hollins OL Tommy Doyle DT Quinton Jefferson DT Jordan Phillips DT Austin Johnson DE Dawuane Smoot CB Rasul Douglas S Damar Hamlin LS Reid Ferguson Out of this group the keepers are: Ty Johnson Reggie Gilliam Mack Hollins Jordan Phillips (on a minimum contract) Reid Ferguson If they can get a good deal then these are the ones open for consideration: Amari Cooper (If they can get him for under $10M a year, which I doubt) Tommy Doyle Dawuane Smoot Damar Hamlin (if he could agree to a minimum contract with the thought that he will be a backup) Extend: Cook Rousseau (I know everyone is down on him but he didn't have many opportunities to get after Mahomes, Mahomes was getting the ball out so quickly that the ends didn't have many true opportunities) Benford Bernard FA/draft needs: Will need a man specialist to replace Rasul Will need to get someone to replace Von Miller If Amari doesn't come back we need his replacement Need to get two big monster DT's that can stop the run effectively and push the pocket. Player development needs: Need Kincaid to step up Need Cole Bishop to take a nice leap of improvement Need Keon Coleman to improve The Coaching Staff: On offense, not much needs to change philosophically. Brady was excellent On Defense, gear up this defense to stop the Chiefs. More blitzes, more disguised coverages, more man to man.

- Andy Reid Schemes up good plays against our defense - Mahomes is great at reading the defense pre snap and is able to get out the pass very quickly to that first read for typically an easy 8 yarder (Reminds me of Brady) - When the combo of Andy and Mahomes scheme and execute that quickly it takes out the edge rushers effectiveness - Spags dials up great blitzes in high leverage moments - KC typically converts in high leverage moments just a tad more efficiently than the Bills Yes, the ref spotted the ball incorrectly which very well may have changed the outcome of the game, but even so the Bills were stuffed on 4 Tush push's that is more than they were stuffed all year. Gotta tip your hat to them scheming and executing that play incredibly well. Kincaid made a huge drop, with that catch the Bills would have been in the drivers seat with a 1st down at the 35 yard line with just under 2 minutes to play and 2 timeouts. With that said, the Spags blitz was executed perfectly, it completely fooled Josh pre snap and Josh had to make an incredible play (which he did) to beat it, unfortunately Kincaid didn't come down with the ball. But even before then, it shouldn't have gotten to a 4th and 5 situation and the Bills didn't make the plays to avoid that situation. I think what drove me the craziest this game aside from KC constantly executing those quick 8 yarders throughout the game is that time and time again the roll out run for Mahomes was never stopped, you would have thought after the first time it worked that they would have not allowed that to happen but it happened 4 times and each time was a positive play for them. Whatever happened to Milano or one of the other LB's spying Mahomes? If you have a spy then that play doesn't work all 4 times and when the Bills did put a spy Milano ended up making a great sack on Mahomes trying to scramble away from the play. I honestly think that the Bills defense needs to go back to the drawing board and change up how they play defense, a sort of defense that is tailor made against limiting the Chiefs. Study up on what the teams that do the best against them do, look at their personnel, look at their scheme and change it up. Tinkering around the edges or getting another piece on defense is not going to stop those quick 8 yard passes that are thrown within 2 seconds of the ball being snapped. They need to play with tons of disguises and do something unconventional because what this defense is doing against the Chiefs just isn't working. On the offensive side of the ball, the offense is right there where they need to be. If Josh could maybe do one thing that is better than he is already doing is learn the art of the quick pass similar to Brady and Mahomes and take the quick easy yardage. On that last drive, on the first down, Josh had the RB out wide that if he had made the throw to him it would have gotten anywhere from a minimum of 4 yards to very possibly depending on how well the ball was placed to a first down. Aside from that, you would like to see your players make clutch plays and this is two years in a row where last year Diggs makes a big drop that was hugely important to an even bigger drop by Kincaid. When it's the 4th quarter and the game is on the line, you expect championship teams to have their players come down with those passes. How many championships have been won by players making unbelievable grabs? The Giants and the Patriots both had incredibly difficult and huge catches that they made. The David Tyree catch in 2008, without that catch the Giants don't win that game. Or Julian Edelman's catch, same thing, without it Brady has 1 less Super Bowl ring. Those players made the plays, two years in a row now our players when given the opportunity don't.

Merritt Island, Florida over at my dads and we will be watching the game together with him my mom and my brother, just like every other game! I just hope we can enjoy a Bills victory for him more than anything else. Go Bills!

It certainly is odd

From Von Miller’s IG account. He posted it today. Big game incoming from Von!

Great news! Improves our odds of reaching a Super Bowl next year and maybe making him next cycle’s Ben Johnson. Would have a lot more leverage in getting a huge payday and control of operations.

Fantastic read, this team is mentally ready.

No one has been able to stop it, I think the Dolphins in one of the games stopped a 3rd and 1 and the Bills proceeded to get it on the 4th and half a yard. That tush push TD went in easily and could have gone for 3 yards. The Bills scored easily on the TD from the 1 yard line. Not buying that at all Until a team proves they can stop it, you continue to go for it. It is the only play in football where everyone knows it’s coming and knowing that despite that fact and that the Bills have the highest success rate that goes well into the 90% range (along with Philly), you run it until it is stopped

What I don’t understand is the Bills hesitancy to do the Allen tush push on 3rd and 2’s. When they run that play they typically get 1-3 yards, I don’t care if it’s ugly boring football it’s effective and they should absolutely be running that play every time when they are on the opponents side of the field. That’s a couple times now that I believe that play should have been run. I hope they rethink that

TB will be very motivated

Marv sounds excellent for being 99, his mind is still sharp and I can only hope to be in that sort of condition at that age.

Hell of a comment from Kelce on Josh

I can’t think of anyone’s opinion on football that I would consider more credible than Belichek’s

This is Cole Bishop’s big opportunity and some of his strengths can be used against man to man coverage against Kelsey