Magox

Extending Rousseau, Benford, Cook, Josh Allen restructuring Dawkins, Brown releasing Von Miller and Daquan frees up $65m towards the cap next year. Plus with the expected huge salary cap increases over the next couple years, I think it’s a lot more manageable than people may think.

Here is what I know, Tim Settle and Poona Ford both were lackluster when they played here and then went on to the Texans and Chargers and then they played at above average levels. I don’t know why that happened just that it did.

I hear ya, I think this is a position where you do pay more than what most teams pay for that position grouping. Right now WR’s are the second highest paid position grouping. It’s very possible Jamar Chase will get $40m a year when he signs. The guys who defend those guys are CB’s, it makes sense to spend money to defend those guys. Also, spending about $35m a year between both your boundary CB’s is not a matter of having two higher end capable guys out there playing defense, but having guys like that allows your defense a lot of flexibility to do things that the Bills have never had the luxury to do which is blitz a lot more often and have lots of guys play close to the line of scrimmage which can be very effective in disguising coverages. Plus the idea that this will tie up a lot of money in this grouping and handcuff the team I don’t believe is accurate. The salary cap will go up $10m -$20m this year alone and probably $20-$40m over the next two years. Signing both these guys would have a low cap hit next year and a relatively manageable one two years from now, which would be easily absorbed by the increase in the cap.

That is very true, I myself believe that in order to compete against this playoff Chiefs team, you have to have both your boundary guys be able to maintain tight coverage for a minimum of 3 seconds, this allows the defense to utilize various pressure packages which in turn dictates play. Right now, the Chiefs are dictating everything and the combo of Reid and Mahomes are able to easily to make plays on their first read. I’m convinced that for the Bills to have any chance at holding the Chiefs below 25 points that they need this and I think they should make a good strong offer, you could offer $60m over 4 years with $45m of it guaranteed. The higher guaranteed money could allow a slightly lower overall contract. I’ve been thinking about this a good bit and I’m convinced that this is the route.

That is exactly how I viewed it as well. The defense as a whole fell apart after Salah left and honestly I think their will to play at a high level disappeared once the bottom dropped out

Sport trac has him at 4 year $58m and Profocus has him at 3 year $42m https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/market-value/_/id/25243/dj-reed I think these make sense

Salary cap is expected to go up $10 -$20m next year and with all the new streaming deals and overseas games and added exposure to the NFL, I think you will continue to see hefty increases over the next few years. Any signings or extensions won’t really be felt on a significant level for 2-3 years from now. The Bills could afford to put $35 m a year on one of the most critical positions in the game and I think more than anything that weakness was exposed vs the Chiefs and Ravens or for that matter throughout the year on third downs.

Correct, that is the Bills M.O to pay one and the other be a draft pick or a mid level FA guy. And it hasn’t worked, I hope they change that. Some team may overpay for Reed and I could see why but I think both he and Benford could sign for around $35-38m a year and the flexibility it would give this defense would make it worth it.

I don’t think DJ Reed will be $20m but closer to $13-$15m a year. That you can afford

They have to play more man to man and blitz than they have in the past. The best defenses are doing this with success more often than in the recent past.

He does draw a decent bit of flags but that also speaks to how aggressive he plays WR’s. If he was elite he would cost $25m a year. He’s not elite but he is good and effective which is why he can be had for a lot less than $25m a year.

Here is Kair and Rasul both getting easily cooked because of either how far off they played off the WR’s or when they did play press man were easily defeated. No matter who you have rushing the passer on these plays it wouldn’t have made a difference.

For me his comp is Tyreek Hill. His explosiveness and speed will be right at the top in the league, his game day speed matches his timed and track speed. He has the ability to run some routes very well and I could envision him his rookie year not just being some guy who primarily runs go sort of routes but he could be used in the screen game. He attacks defenses with violence and if he gets through one seam or breaks a tackle siyonara, he’s off to the races. Bills like to play a lot of the 4 X 1 formations, more so than any team in the league I believe and Amari would be the 1 isolated on the outside. This usually on man to man coverages forces either a 1 on 1 with the DB or draws a safety to help with the over the top passes, he’s the sort of guy that could excel on those sort of plays. Tyreek Hill was very raw and had drop issues himself coming out of college. A guy with this sort of ability would not be around with a top pick if he didn’t have drop issues. It’s a bit of a gamble but I think the potential upside justifies it.

I am convinced that the biggest weakness we had against the Chiefs was the inability to disguise coverages and take Mahomes off of his first read. He was getting the ball out in 2.29 seconds which means no matter who who the Bills would have had whether it was a Myles Garrett or Max Crosby it wouldn’t have made a lick of difference on those first read throws which was the vast majority of his drop back passes. There are a few reasons for this, one being that the scheme was entirely too predictable and Mahomes knew pre snap exactly where he was going to go. Another reason was personnel issues at CB, Benford has become a decent press man cover corner even though his wheel house is more suited for zone - man match defensive coverage. When Benford went out, the Bills lost their best press man cover corner and all that was left was Rasul who is below average on man to man coverage and Kair who was utterly rudderless meaning that this severely impacted the Bills ability to blitz and the available aggressive schemes they could dial up. The Bills only blitzed 6 times and Mahomes was 3 for 4 with 3 first downs on those blitzes. Here is an example of how badly Rasul covered one of those plays. I am also convinced that McD who at heart loves coaching the DB aspects of the game must have been extremely frustrated this year watching the Bills secondary get sliced up on third downs and not being able to stop top tier passers from throwing on his defense. The Bills very likely will not bring back Kairr nor Douglas and I do not believe they will be satisfied with entrusting a rookie boundary CB to play the critical role of pairing up with Benford. I think they will go for a DB who excels at press man and zone man match defense and for me the big splash signing this FA should be DJ Reed. He is really good at playing man to man, he’s only 28 years old, he has the quickness to hang with KC’s quicker WR’s. He’s ultra competitive, he’s got that dawg in him, knows the division very well and probably can be had for around $13-15m a year sort of deal. Having him and Benford will allow the defense to scheme up more disguises, have more pressure packages and allow the defense to dictate more on high leverage moments.

He will be in the $12 -$14m range. RB valuations were too low the pendulum swung too low and it will come back to a more reasonable medium.

Obviously I would love to have Max Crosby but honestly it doesn’t make a lot of sense. He would cost at least two first rounders at a bare minimum and lots of money, which means other key players probably wouldn’t be able to be extended. I think allowing Solomon to develop and extending Rousseau and having Smoot and Epenesa there along with either a 1st round or one of the two second round picks towards a pass rusher would make the most sense. Cut Von and go get yourself the best man to man DB available in FA (DJ Reed) would be my preferred route. We already have 2 safeties that play the Chinn role in Rapp and Bishop. The safety type player they need is the one who can make plays on the ball and not allow the deep passes. Justin Simmons fits that role and despite his age he has lots of experience and is a playmaker. He shouldn’t cost that much either.

Oh god, we are now at the stage of blaming Josh for not working out hard enough 🙄

In terms of his physical tools and the explosiveness and twitch he plays with, he's extremely unique. If he was a better catcher of the ball, he wouldn't be around at the end of the 2nd round. The Bills would have to do their homework and see if they could develop him, if they think they could then he would excite me more so than any other receiver that would be available at the end of the 2nd round. We know that the Bills like their receivers to be able to block and we know that they want to attack the field vertically more, McD said as much in his presser, I think he's the sort of physical profile of a player that they will take a long hard look at.

Of course we are not far off, which is why usually all these hot takes right after the game are usually silly. Beane said as much, there isn't much to change and that if they had the opportunity with 3 minutes left down 3 with the ball in Josh's hands that he'd sign right up for that. We had our chances and we could have won that game. With that said that doesn't mean there aren't things to improve and for me, first and foremost is changing up the defense to play more man to man and to disguise your looks. Mahomes/Andy Reid killed us with their first options. Mahomes was throwing to his first option most of the time, which means no matter who you had rushing the passer it wouldn't have made a flip of a difference on those passes. Mahomes averaged 2.29 seconds per pass, that is indicative of a defensive scheme issue more so than a player personnel one. Secondly, we will need to replace Elam/Douglas and my first option is that we go into FA and the splash signing should be DJ Reed. He is a man to man specialist, knows the division very well and has a fierce competitive edge to him. He's quick and should be able to match up against KC's quicker receivers. He and Benford both manning the outside should allow a lot of flexibility for the defense to run more blitzes. Third, go after a guy like Calais Campbell who is an ageless wonder, still very powerful against the run and he's got that dawg in him. Not sure if you guys have seen his defensive speeches right before games but he's a natural leader and would add juice to the defensive line to shore up the run. In the draft with your three premium picks get an Edge rusher, Run stuffing DT and a WR. Get more help at safety and CB with some other draft picks and need to see Javon Soloman, Cole Bishop, Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid take up their games another notch. The offense is going to be really good again, that's pretty much set unless injuries plague them. The defense for me is what needs most of the revamping and honestly I think it's more schematic than anything else.

This guy with one of the second round picks could be interesting. He will probably be the fastest guy in the combine. Incredibly talented just is kind of raw and had issues with drops. He plays as fast as what his timed speed is which will be in the 4.2’s Good physical blocker as well. If he has his head on straight and works on his craft I could see him being a game breaking WR.

Our offense is not a boundary WR centric offense. You are all dreaming if you think there will be a premium pick or FA selection this upcoming year at the boundary WR spot. They will hope that Keon develops and look to get a competent replacement for Amari if he doesn't return. The only way they would use a premium pick is if the player was too good to pass up. This will be a year when both FA pickups and premium picks will be used on the defensive side of the ball.

This draft is loaded with DT’s which is the biggest need that the Bills have. CB will be another huge need as well with Rasul and Kair most likely not returning.

This is exactly what I’ve been saying the past couple days. People can want to blame Rousseau or Von and the lack of pressure, but it would be misguided blame. Andy Reid schemes open plays and Mahomes was able to read the plays pre snap and he was consistently throwing to his first option and each time it was netting 8-12 yarders. The problem wasn’t personnel from the ends, you could have had Myles Garrett and he wouldn’t have gotten to Mahomes on time. You can’t when Mahomes is getting the ball out in 2.29 seconds. The defense has to show new looks and disguise their coverages more effectively and not have Mahomes constantly throw it to his first read. The biggest problem from the defensive side wasn’t personnel but rather our defensive gameplan and it’s predictably

I would say 10 - 15 more years

I'm as pained as anyone but this idea that you are going to get rid of the entire defense and start over is ludicrous. Who are you going to replace them with? I'm ok with replacing certain players but you better have someone in place to take over their spot that you think can do the job better or just as well at the least. Honestly, the biggest problem on the defensive side of the ball wasn't individual efforts from the players, it was schematic. How many passes did Mahomes make where he threw the ball to his first read within 2.25 seconds? Tons Time after time the Chiefs were able to scheme up where someone would be open very quickly and time after time Mahomes was able to read it pre snap and know exactly where he was going to throw it and time after time that player was pretty open for an easy 8 yarder. They just ran horizontal routes all day long and they executed them, not to mention the Mahomes called runs which we had no answers for. The defensive philosophy needs to change, they need to run more disruptive plays/blitzes, they need to have lots more disguised coverages with men in the box and they need the CB's who can execute man to man coverages for these sort of plays. With that said, here are the list of Unrestricted FA's RB Ty Johnson FB Reggie Gilliam WR Amari Cooper WR Mack Hollins OL Tommy Doyle DT Quinton Jefferson DT Jordan Phillips DT Austin Johnson DE Dawuane Smoot CB Rasul Douglas S Damar Hamlin LS Reid Ferguson Out of this group the keepers are: Ty Johnson Reggie Gilliam Mack Hollins Jordan Phillips (on a minimum contract) Reid Ferguson If they can get a good deal then these are the ones open for consideration: Amari Cooper (If they can get him for under $10M a year, which I doubt) Tommy Doyle Dawuane Smoot Damar Hamlin (if he could agree to a minimum contract with the thought that he will be a backup) Extend: Cook Rousseau (I know everyone is down on him but he didn't have many opportunities to get after Mahomes, Mahomes was getting the ball out so quickly that the ends didn't have many true opportunities) Benford Bernard FA/draft needs: Will need a man specialist to replace Rasul Will need to get someone to replace Von Miller If Amari doesn't come back we need his replacement Need to get two big monster DT's that can stop the run effectively and push the pocket. Player development needs: Need Kincaid to step up Need Cole Bishop to take a nice leap of improvement Need Keon Coleman to improve The Coaching Staff: On offense, not much needs to change philosophically. Brady was excellent On Defense, gear up this defense to stop the Chiefs. More blitzes, more disguised coverages, more man to man.