Magox

I didn't say it was to "overpay" players, I gave a perfectly reasonable and entirely objective analysis backed up by statistical facts that puts Rousseau in the top 15% at his position. It's right there for anyone to see, I have posted it with links up above. In fact, even Sportrac has him at around a $25M AAV. So you may disagree with that, but it's not an overpay based on his overall stats. Also, in regards to AJ Brown, they could still manipulate the cap numbers to that they don't have to take that gigantic $51M cap hit in 2030 and spread it out to remaining voided years.

I think I misunderstood, you are saying he's worth $20M AAV rather than $24M ? I can understand that, and that is a defensible position.

He's not a game wrecker, but you can't get a game wrecker at $20M. Game wreckers that are going up for a new contract will all be $30M+ a year. You can still sign a game wrecker for the other side to go along with Rousseau. The Eagles have 6 guys they are paying over $20M AAV and another 6 guys that they are paying $12M - $18M. You can do it, you just have to have an owner willing to pony up the up front real $$$

See my post above. I posted stats, not subjective analysis which is pretty much what all the naysayers are using as their argument. "I don't feel he's worth that". "I think we need to get a game wrecker for that kind of money". It's difficult to argue against feelings. It's easier to make valid arguments when you can post objective analysis by using real facts. The facts show that this past season, his stats show that he is ranked somewhere between 10 - 15 in the league at the DE spot. A DE at 10 - 15 in the league who is up for a new contract will get around $24M AAV. That's not an opinion, that is a fact. Now if you think that this past season where he objectively was a top 10 - 15 guy was an anomaly and that is as good as it is going to get, then I'd understand your argument. But no matter how much you or anyone else wants to denigrate the year he just had, you will never be able to whitewash his statistical output. Hence the Sportrac forecast has him at $25M AAV. And sorry Kirby, $12m AAV what you stated is absurd and any NFL GM would laugh at that suggestion.

That's fine, you may feel that way, but that doesn't change the fact that the way you feel about it is how it actually played out. Check his stats here https://www.pff.com/nfl/players/greg-rousseau/76889 - 15th in the league in solo tackles at DE - 10th in the league in Tackles for loss as a DE - 3rd in the league in forced fumbles at DE - 10th in the league in Stops at DE -19th in the league in sacks at DE - 18th in the league in Hurries at DE - 2nd in the league in QB hits at DE - 10th in the league in Total QB pressures - 11th in the league in Batted Passes -12th in the league in PFF ratings And he did this by being - 25th in the league in Total snaps - 32nd in Run defense snaps -17th in pass rush snaps Again, some of you may feel that he didn't do much, but the fact is that he did a lot more than what some of you are giving him credit for.

You are assuming that the only way to manipulate the cap figures is by spreading out the signing bonus to the remaining 5 years. There is a reason why teams use the voided years, it is to provide cap flexibility. Essentially when the voided years are first put into place they often times are empty or near empty shells. The signing bonus in itself wouldn't be added to the voided years, however the base salary years from the active years can be converted to a future signing bonus which then can be spread out to the remaining years (The 5 year resets with each time you restructure it). As an example, if the Bills lets say had a $15M base pay salary with a certain player in 2027, they could convert that to a bonus and then spread a large portion of that to the remaining years including the voided years. There are many ways to manipulate the cap. You just have to have an owner that is willing to pay the huge up front $$. Take a look at the AJ Brown extension. They added 4 voided years and were able to spread out the cap hit. It's a game of musical chairs, at some point the huge cap hits will take place, and it will be when the player is no longer on the roster meaning that there will be a day of reckoning. Josh Allen is going to be turning 29 years old, if you manipulate the cap with the anticipated huge cap growth, you don't have to face that day of reckoning in a debilitating manner for another 5 years out and even then you can still play musical chairs with the cap if Allen is still playing the way he is. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwi088ja7uGLAxX2QzABHaoWBW4QFnoECBIQAw&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.spotrac.com%2Fnfl%2Fplayer%2F_%2Fid%2F29087%2Faj-brown%23%3A~%3Atext%3D2024%2D2029%20Extension%2Caverage%20annual%20salary%20of%20%2432%2C000%2C000.&usg=AOvVaw1Ue4TgRQJ-yayW0r45rMkf&opi=89978449

I found this to be interesting, usually Sportrac is pretty close to the expected contract values. Sometimes they over and underestimate. Here is what they believe all the Bills extensions would look like. https://www.spotrac.com/news/_/id/2652/nfl-contract-extension-candidates#:~:text=Also: Josh Allen (QB%2C,OT Taylor Moton Cook they have around $10.25M, Shakir they pegged at $19.5M and Bills got him for max of $15M AAV. Bernard's expected value is very reasonable so I'd expect if the Bills could get that they'll pull the trigger on that one. Rousseau they have at $25M AAV. They understand what his value/production and don't go just by the headline raw sack numbers that many seem to do and they also understand how much the cap has risen and is expected to rise. This is how they objectively come up with their projections.

I get it, but he did have a very productive year this past year and 3 years from now the cap is most likely going to go up another $70-$85M more. And if the owner is as committed to winning as lets say a Jeffrey Laurie and is willing to do all the voided year cap manipulations, then you can easily make it work, retain your players and still go after high quality targets in FA or via trade.

I know the answer to this but I want to ask you, what percentage of the cap would go towards his 2025 and 2026 season if he signed a typical 4 year $24M AAV extension with 2 voided years?

According to Rousseau, it appears that it was a scouting issue. https://www.golongtd.com/p/missing-rings-buffalo-bills-flush Either way, yes you want your players playing their best when it counts the most. Sometimes, good offensive play calling against a bad defensive scheme can make lots of players look bad. Look at the Chiefs vs Philadelphia, was that game representative of 1st ballot HOF guys in Mahomes and Kelce? The interior line for KC is good and they were abused. The play calling was terrible, they were one dimensional and as a result players looked bad. It happens, what I think is more important to view is the player recent production, their age and trajectory of play. Rousseau had many top 10 stats in the NFL, that is not in dispute and he did have back to back games with sacks against Lamar Jackson and Bo Nix in the playoffs. I don't believe for one second that the Bills decision makers will hold that game against him. At $24M AAV, if all DE's were up for a new contract this year, there would probably be at least 15 guys who would get higher payouts than Rousseau, which means that based off his recent production and age and his rate of trajectory, and the rate of recent and anticipated cap growth, that AAV is in line.

It's not my model, just my inputs. They could easily bring in Garrett if ownership wanted to spend the money. How do you think the Eagles are able to pay $30M AAV to AJ Brown, $25M AAV to Devonta, $51M AAV to Hurts, $20M AAV to Lane Johnson, Mailata $22M AAV, Saquon $12M AAV, Landon Dickerson who is a guard at $21M AAV, Goedert $14.25M AAV, Bryce Huff $17M AAV (He's a linebacker), Darius Sley - $14M AAV, Bradberry $13M AAV? Their owner Jeffrey Laurie is willing to have all these voided years and pay out monster real cash payouts every single year. Meaning, that they know how to manipulate the cap AND that they have an owner who is willing to truly pony up the $$$. To go back to your question, Garrett has two years remaining on his contract, the cap hits are relatively low at $19.7M cap hit for 2025 and $20.3M for 2026. He would want an extension, and I'm guessing the extension would look like 3 years $95M. They could add two voided years, convert his option bonus from 2025 and flatten it out and spread it through the remaining 4 years + 2 Voided years and bring down his cap number for 2025 from $19M to under $10M. The owner has to have the cash to pay the up front bonuses to make it work. Extending all the players that I suggested and bringing in a new player means that a lot of real $$$ not cap money but real money would be needed this year to make that work.

The age excuse would have more validity if Rousseau wasn't clearly ascending year over year. Did you read the stats and where he ranks against other edge rushers? He had many season bests and many categories where he ranked in the top 10. Such as pressures, QB hits, stops, fumbles caused, passes batted down, tackles for loss. These aren't unimportant stats, they add to the value of an edge rusher.

No, you didn't read the post. It has 6 tables and it shows how much cap savings you will get for 2025 if you extend, restructure, cut and trade. It's right there, just plug in what I had instructed. As an example: if you extend Josh Allen it saves you $11.7M for 2025 Extend Rousseau it saves $9.7M for 2025 Extend Cook it saves $3.3M Extend Bernard, Shakir and Benford it saves a total of $5.1M Cut Von Pre June 1 it saves $8.3M Cut Daquan Pre June 1 saves $1.7M Restructure Dion saves $9.8M Total = $48M of cap savings for 2025 Click on the link https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/buffalo-bills#google_vignette and plug it in. If you don't believe it, take it up with Overthecap

I just did...I gave you the instructions on how to do it. It sounds like you just want to be an old stubborn man.

I just showed how above the post. It's right there, all you have to do is click on the link and follow the instructions I provided.

Sure, I'd be happy to. There is this cool tool provided by OVERTHECAP https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/buffalo-bills#google_vignette If you click on the link You should be on the Bills team when you click the link and be able to scroll down and you’ll see where it shows 55 active players. The first row will be the players, the second is cap number and the third and fourth are grouped together show dead money and 4th is cap savings. In that 3rd and 4th row grouping you will see a grey area where you can toggle the 6 options which are cut pre June 1, cut post June 1, trade pre June 1, post June 1, extension and restructure. When you select any of those it changes the outcome on the 4th row cap savings. Choose extend Cook, Shakir, Rousseau, Bernard, Benford, Josh Allen Cut Daquan, Cut Von Miller Pre June 1 (If you do post June 1 you get even more savings) Restructure Dion Dawkins This frees up over $40M in cap space. Which brings back all the players and you still have lots of money to get new players!

It is math and there is plenty of money to bring back Cook, Shakir, Benford, Bernard, Rousseau and still spend money in FA. It can easily be done.

If any "Game wrecker" is up for a new contract now, they can't be had for $24M AAV, they will all be $30M AAV and the very top 3-4 will be between $33M- $36M AAV. $24M AAV is a top 20% starting edge rusher pay for guys entering into their prime.

I didn't notice it, but I don't doubt you. Hard to judge a persons career on one game. If we did that then lots of players wouldn't get extended or be given good contracts. I think as a whole, you definitely see a player on the rise. He did have sacks in both of the other playoff wins.

The decision to extend Rousseau has become a somewhat polarizing topic and I think it a bit warranted but I do believe there are many key points that the naysayers are overlooking. I'm going to look to make two different points, one will be revolved around his production and the other will be centered on the explosion of the salary cap and how people's perceptions of it are stuck in the previous years rates of cap inflation. Production and player capabilities Greg is 24 years old, he's still very young and he is an ascending player. Every year he's been in the NFL he has improved from the previous season. He has not hit his prime yet. His measurables are fantastic, 6'7 and 266 lbs and he's still filling out his body and he has good speed for being as large as he is. He had 8 sacks in the season which tied his highest total, he had two sacks in the playoffs which is his best Post season yet, he had his highest tackle total that this past season. He had his highest tackles for loss this year with 16 which made him 10th in the league. Rousseau is the 11th rated out of 211 DE's in PFF ratings. Rousseau had 63 pass pressures which ranked 10th out of 211 Edge rushers. Rousseau had 17 QB hits which ranked 2nd in the NFL for DE's. Rousseau had 3 batted passes which ranked 11th in the NFL for DE's. Rousseau had 3 Forced fumbles which ranked 3rd in the NFL for DE's. Rousseau had 35 Stops which ranked 10th for DE's in the NFL. And he did this with a relatively low snap count of 736 which ranked 25th in the NFL for DE's. I think too many people look at the raw sack total and then make judgements. Sacks are very important and I would say is one of the most if not the most important metric but the value of the player is so much more than just raw sack totals. It's clear that Rousseau gets a lot of pass pressures, that he hits the QB a lot, makes the QB throw the ball sooner than he'd like. He's really good against the run, bats down passes and causes fumbles which is important. From a value perspective, if you look at the statistics as a whole, objectively he is an 9-12 rated all around NFL DE in the league, which means out of 64 starters, he's in the top 15-25% Salary Cap and how many are not viewing it correctly The salary cap back in 2000 was $62M, today it stands at $275M The nominal growth of the Salary cap from 2012 - 2022 has averaged around 6% per year The growth of the salary cap over the past 3 seasons has been around 11% per year Just the past three seasons it has gone from $208M - $281.5M That is a growth of $73.5M in just 3 seasons alone which accounts for about a whopping 33% growth in the salary cap. With all the new Broadcasting streaming deals, the way the NFL is now going to begin measuring viewership and all the overseas efforts, many industry experts believe that this rate of growth will continue at least for the next 5 years. I bring the salary cap up because I believe that many people are still viewing salary cap figures with the lens of an old 6-7%outdated rate of growth that we had been used to seeing. Over the past three years the rate of growth of the cap has gone to 11%, which represents an 80% rate of growth from what we have been accustomed to have been seeing. In short, the cap has been going bananas and is projected to do so for the foreseeable near future. There are 10 players who are making $22M a year at the Edge position, that is Nick Bosa, Joshua Hines-Allen, Brian Burns, TJ Watt, Myles Garrett, Montez Sweat, Danielle Hunger, Rashan Gary, Maxx Crosby and Bradley Chubb. Bosa tops the league at $34M AAV. Parsons when he does his deal will probably be around $37M. Many of the top 10 players signed their deals 2-3 years ago, which means if they were signing a deal today, rather than making lets say $24M that they signed then, they would be receiving $30M + today. Also, if you don't extend Rousseau, then you have to replace him and there is already a hole and a major need to get another Edge rusher. This means that you now need to get 2 Edge rushers that can play effectively. It's hard enough to find 1, finding 2 makes it that much more difficult. If you look at Rousseau's recent production, that he's 24, that he has all the physical traits that you are looking for and that he has shown a propensity to continue to ascend every year in the NFL. Then objectively speaking, signing him to a $23- $24M AAV contract makes a lot of sense and by the time 2027 comes around his contract will only most likely be around 6% of the cap. That's a deal! And I'm sticking to it!

Landry is on the block. He can get after it

Yeah, I'm not sure. They make the assumptions without seeing what the extension would look like. Will be interesting to see once the contract details are out.

You should be on the Bills team when you click the link and be able to scroll down and you’ll see where it shows 55 active players. The first row will be the players, the second is cap number and the third and fourth are grouped together show dead money and 4th is cap savings. In that 3rd and 4th row grouping you will see a grey area where you can toggle the 6 options which are cut pre June 1, cut post June 1, trade pre June 1, post June 1, extension and restructure. When you select any of those it changes the outcome on the 4th row cap savings.

Not sure, that’s what Overthecap site shows. Have a look, you can see the savings or additional hits with extensions, releases, post June releases and restructures

The extension, depending on how it’s structured count have a net savings of around $1.8M for 2025 https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/buffalo-bills#google_vignette