Magox

I don't doubt you but I would like to see it as well. Honestly, I don't like this sort of thinking, you essentially cancel out players that could be better than the guys who have the dimensions you are looking for. Similar to a degree of how many on this board and probably the Bills were so adamant during last years draft process to not go after Ladd McConkey. Obviously and clearly that was a mistake, he will end up being an All Pro. People didn't want to consider him because they believed he was only a slot guy, where in reality he is multi dimensional and could excel at any of WR spots, despite his snap utilization at the slot this past year. The point is, you shouldn't cross off people because you believe they aren't your prototype or fit. Really good players can find ways to get on the field and get the job done.

Except it won't be 7 or 8% of the cap. In 2025 he'd end up being less than 3%, in 2026 with the way caps are now constructed he'd be around 4%, 2027 he'd be around 5%. Look at Nick Bosa's contract, which was a 34M AAV extension. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/29037/nick-bosa#:~:text=2023-2028 Rookie Extension,average annual salary of %2434%2C000%2C000. His first year was 4.9% of the cap, second year was %5.74 and third year is 7.35% And look at how the 49ers constructed the 4th, 5th and 6th years, much of it is in base salary, which means they can convert it to a bonus and spread it out in the remaining years including the voided year. If you extrapolate that with the fact that a $24M AAV vs $34M AAV that is approximately 30% less, which if you include the rate of inflation from the point of when Bosa signed it vs when Rousseau could sign his, you are talking about nearly 40% difference. Lets split the baby and use 35%. 4.9% of which is what Bosa had for his first year would be 3.1% for 2025, second year Bosa accounted for 5.74% of the cap which would translate 3.9% and three years out Bosa accounted for 7.35% which would translate to 4.9% So yeah, you would get it exactly what you said would be acceptable to you, which was a 4% type of guy for the first three years.

Not that game, the DB's and scheme were the main problem. Mahomes got the ball out in 2.29 seconds vs the Bills, he got the ball out in 3.32 seconds against the Eagles. What that means is that Mahomes was hitting his first read vs the Bills all game long, whereas against the Eagles they were snuffing that option out and by the time he was getting to his second read the Eagles pressure was getting home.

For those that want to understand how it would work: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna188186

He's a good space eating run stuffer who doesn't get pass pressure and he's 30. His contract value for 2025 is around $8M, which is borderline too high. He could help the team but not at this contract value.

I understand this logic and on the surface it makes sense but the potential cons to this would be: - If he does put up bigger numbers and continues to ascend then we are probably talking around $27M + AAV - Extending him frees up around $9 M in cap space for 2025

I would love to have someone more proven or athletically gifted as well, but apparently based off analytics he can serve a role that the Bills need and if they can get him this cheaply and then draft a WR with one of their 3 premium picks who could turn out to be a long-term answer, then I think this could make a lot of sense. It would be a low cost, potential high reward sort of signing. And it would leave more money to go after DE, DT, CB and Safeties in a more substantive manner via FA or trade.

I was making this case a couple days ago He would be a very low cost option, most likely under $7m a year and from an analytics standpoint he is a good separator, wins against man to man and apparently is good at winning vertical routes. This should be a serious consideration for the Bills and pair it with a WR draft choice. Moneyball!

I have seen this argument made before.

Maybe “considerably” is too strong of a word, definitely better though. The other difference is that Rousseau is still continuing to improve, people don’t like that I use the word “young”, that’s just their Tremaine Edmunds PTSD talking and that PTSD has no bearings on reality. Tremaine had peaked after 2-3 years which was an above average LB with a lot of range. Rousseau has not shown any sign of peaking, he is ascending hence the career highs on a number of measurable metrics.

No one can deny that he had a very good game, the problem is that in his 7 years he had one season above 10 sacks, his pass pressure rate, tackles for loss, stops, batted passes, tackles, forced fumbles, QB hits were all for the most part considerably worse than Rousseau By any objective measure, Rousseau is considerably more valuable. Just look if you don’t believe me and then look at Rousseau’s stats https://www.pff.com/nfl/players/josh-sweat/50120 We’ve seen this story before, where a player plays amazing in the Super Bowl and then some team overpays for their services relative to their overall production

You can disagree on how you perceive his value but you can’t takeaway the stats. His stats indicate he is a top 15 DE. In regards to Brown, I never said he wouldn’t be on the team, you added that qualifier. What I said is that they could be used which is a true statement

Depends on how you look at it. Shakir is an excellent slot receiver but if you move him to the boundary he'd be a below average receiver. Just from the slot perspective, he may be a higher end just slot guy then Rousseau as a DE. I could make the argument that Shakir is a top 6/7 slot guy, and I can make a reasonable argument that Rousseau is a top 15 DE. From that perspective Shakir excels at his position more so than Rousseau. But since Shakir cannot line up effectively from the boundary position, his value diminishes. Shakir probably should have come in at around $18M AAV, the Bills got a hell of a deal on that signing.

I didn't say it was to "overpay" players, I gave a perfectly reasonable and entirely objective analysis backed up by statistical facts that puts Rousseau in the top 15% at his position. It's right there for anyone to see, I have posted it with links up above. In fact, even Sportrac has him at around a $25M AAV. So you may disagree with that, but it's not an overpay based on his overall stats. Also, in regards to AJ Brown, they could still manipulate the cap numbers to that they don't have to take that gigantic $51M cap hit in 2030 and spread it out to remaining voided years.

I think I misunderstood, you are saying he's worth $20M AAV rather than $24M ? I can understand that, and that is a defensible position.

He's not a game wrecker, but you can't get a game wrecker at $20M. Game wreckers that are going up for a new contract will all be $30M+ a year. You can still sign a game wrecker for the other side to go along with Rousseau. The Eagles have 6 guys they are paying over $20M AAV and another 6 guys that they are paying $12M - $18M. You can do it, you just have to have an owner willing to pony up the up front real $$$

See my post above. I posted stats, not subjective analysis which is pretty much what all the naysayers are using as their argument. "I don't feel he's worth that". "I think we need to get a game wrecker for that kind of money". It's difficult to argue against feelings. It's easier to make valid arguments when you can post objective analysis by using real facts. The facts show that this past season, his stats show that he is ranked somewhere between 10 - 15 in the league at the DE spot. A DE at 10 - 15 in the league who is up for a new contract will get around $24M AAV. That's not an opinion, that is a fact. Now if you think that this past season where he objectively was a top 10 - 15 guy was an anomaly and that is as good as it is going to get, then I'd understand your argument. But no matter how much you or anyone else wants to denigrate the year he just had, you will never be able to whitewash his statistical output. Hence the Sportrac forecast has him at $25M AAV. And sorry Kirby, $12m AAV what you stated is absurd and any NFL GM would laugh at that suggestion.

That's fine, you may feel that way, but that doesn't change the fact that the way you feel about it is how it actually played out. Check his stats here https://www.pff.com/nfl/players/greg-rousseau/76889 - 15th in the league in solo tackles at DE - 10th in the league in Tackles for loss as a DE - 3rd in the league in forced fumbles at DE - 10th in the league in Stops at DE -19th in the league in sacks at DE - 18th in the league in Hurries at DE - 2nd in the league in QB hits at DE - 10th in the league in Total QB pressures - 11th in the league in Batted Passes -12th in the league in PFF ratings And he did this by being - 25th in the league in Total snaps - 32nd in Run defense snaps -17th in pass rush snaps Again, some of you may feel that he didn't do much, but the fact is that he did a lot more than what some of you are giving him credit for.

You are assuming that the only way to manipulate the cap figures is by spreading out the signing bonus to the remaining 5 years. There is a reason why teams use the voided years, it is to provide cap flexibility. Essentially when the voided years are first put into place they often times are empty or near empty shells. The signing bonus in itself wouldn't be added to the voided years, however the base salary years from the active years can be converted to a future signing bonus which then can be spread out to the remaining years (The 5 year resets with each time you restructure it). As an example, if the Bills lets say had a $15M base pay salary with a certain player in 2027, they could convert that to a bonus and then spread a large portion of that to the remaining years including the voided years. There are many ways to manipulate the cap. You just have to have an owner that is willing to pay the huge up front $$. Take a look at the AJ Brown extension. They added 4 voided years and were able to spread out the cap hit. It's a game of musical chairs, at some point the huge cap hits will take place, and it will be when the player is no longer on the roster meaning that there will be a day of reckoning. Josh Allen is going to be turning 29 years old, if you manipulate the cap with the anticipated huge cap growth, you don't have to face that day of reckoning in a debilitating manner for another 5 years out and even then you can still play musical chairs with the cap if Allen is still playing the way he is. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwi088ja7uGLAxX2QzABHaoWBW4QFnoECBIQAw&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.spotrac.com%2Fnfl%2Fplayer%2F_%2Fid%2F29087%2Faj-brown%23%3A~%3Atext%3D2024%2D2029%20Extension%2Caverage%20annual%20salary%20of%20%2432%2C000%2C000.&usg=AOvVaw1Ue4TgRQJ-yayW0r45rMkf&opi=89978449

I found this to be interesting, usually Sportrac is pretty close to the expected contract values. Sometimes they over and underestimate. Here is what they believe all the Bills extensions would look like. https://www.spotrac.com/news/_/id/2652/nfl-contract-extension-candidates#:~:text=Also: Josh Allen (QB%2C,OT Taylor Moton Cook they have around $10.25M, Shakir they pegged at $19.5M and Bills got him for max of $15M AAV. Bernard's expected value is very reasonable so I'd expect if the Bills could get that they'll pull the trigger on that one. Rousseau they have at $25M AAV. They understand what his value/production and don't go just by the headline raw sack numbers that many seem to do and they also understand how much the cap has risen and is expected to rise. This is how they objectively come up with their projections.

I get it, but he did have a very productive year this past year and 3 years from now the cap is most likely going to go up another $70-$85M more. And if the owner is as committed to winning as lets say a Jeffrey Laurie and is willing to do all the voided year cap manipulations, then you can easily make it work, retain your players and still go after high quality targets in FA or via trade.

I know the answer to this but I want to ask you, what percentage of the cap would go towards his 2025 and 2026 season if he signed a typical 4 year $24M AAV extension with 2 voided years?

According to Rousseau, it appears that it was a scouting issue. https://www.golongtd.com/p/missing-rings-buffalo-bills-flush Either way, yes you want your players playing their best when it counts the most. Sometimes, good offensive play calling against a bad defensive scheme can make lots of players look bad. Look at the Chiefs vs Philadelphia, was that game representative of 1st ballot HOF guys in Mahomes and Kelce? The interior line for KC is good and they were abused. The play calling was terrible, they were one dimensional and as a result players looked bad. It happens, what I think is more important to view is the player recent production, their age and trajectory of play. Rousseau had many top 10 stats in the NFL, that is not in dispute and he did have back to back games with sacks against Lamar Jackson and Bo Nix in the playoffs. I don't believe for one second that the Bills decision makers will hold that game against him. At $24M AAV, if all DE's were up for a new contract this year, there would probably be at least 15 guys who would get higher payouts than Rousseau, which means that based off his recent production and age and his rate of trajectory, and the rate of recent and anticipated cap growth, that AAV is in line.

It's not my model, just my inputs. They could easily bring in Garrett if ownership wanted to spend the money. How do you think the Eagles are able to pay $30M AAV to AJ Brown, $25M AAV to Devonta, $51M AAV to Hurts, $20M AAV to Lane Johnson, Mailata $22M AAV, Saquon $12M AAV, Landon Dickerson who is a guard at $21M AAV, Goedert $14.25M AAV, Bryce Huff $17M AAV (He's a linebacker), Darius Sley - $14M AAV, Bradberry $13M AAV? Their owner Jeffrey Laurie is willing to have all these voided years and pay out monster real cash payouts every single year. Meaning, that they know how to manipulate the cap AND that they have an owner who is willing to truly pony up the $$$. To go back to your question, Garrett has two years remaining on his contract, the cap hits are relatively low at $19.7M cap hit for 2025 and $20.3M for 2026. He would want an extension, and I'm guessing the extension would look like 3 years $95M. They could add two voided years, convert his option bonus from 2025 and flatten it out and spread it through the remaining 4 years + 2 Voided years and bring down his cap number for 2025 from $19M to under $10M. The owner has to have the cash to pay the up front bonuses to make it work. Extending all the players that I suggested and bringing in a new player means that a lot of real $$$ not cap money but real money would be needed this year to make that work.

The age excuse would have more validity if Rousseau wasn't clearly ascending year over year. Did you read the stats and where he ranks against other edge rushers? He had many season bests and many categories where he ranked in the top 10. Such as pressures, QB hits, stops, fumbles caused, passes batted down, tackles for loss. These aren't unimportant stats, they add to the value of an edge rusher.