Magox

He doesn't, that's clear. He just needs a collection of good, competent guys who can each fulfill their roles. This has been proven throughout recent history a number of times with the Chiefs and Patriots and I think Allen is right there with those guys.

I go with Hollywood Brown or Palmer from San Diego and draft one with one of your first 3 picks

The thing is that he was highly productive in college, so it’s not as if he’s just a workout warrior. He’s an All American, All SEC, been starting for 3 years, and the passer rating when he’s targeted is elite. That height, length, jumping ability and speed is going to come in very handy against top TE’s I like him

Even though Shakir who I would characterize as “just a slot guy” is a guy who excels at the slot. The slot position has become a lot more valuable than it has in the past as it allows offensive play callers to utilize players to take advantage against matchups that are presented. But where people get it wrong in how they view slot receivers is that they believe that if a player can’t excel at the boundary that they just throw the scrap players to the slot. Nothing is further from the truth. To play the slot you have to have a different skill set than a boundary receiver. Boundary receivers operate more on an island where their primary objective is to beat the man in front of them. A receiver from the slot has more responsibilities and relies more on reading defenses on how to attack vulnerabilities. Obviously this is an oversimplification as playing in both positions you have to do some of all of the above. It’s sort of like comparing tackles to guards, they both have to block against incoming rushers and run block, in essence they do the same just that they need different skill sets to accomplish their goals. And since tackles have to usually go up against the better pass rushers on an island they are generally viewed more valuable than guards. But again, where people get it wrong is that they believe a middling to low end #1 WR is more valuable than a top end Slot. Thats like saying Alontae Taylor who is one of the worst starting tackles is more valuable than Chris Lindstrom who is one of the best guards. Simply because he plays a position of higher general value. Shakir has the 14th highest WR epa and 2nd highest who plays in the slot in the NFL. https://www.nfeloapp.com/nfl-receiving-leaders/ The EPA metric is one of my favorite ones as it is a metric that measures efficiency of that player when opportunities are presented. Expected Points Added. EPA is calculated by subtracting the expected points before a play from the expected points after the play. Just like any other stat or metric they aren’t determinative or the end all but it is a metric that I believe is very insightful. Shakir’s true value isn’t so much his route running, he’s decent on that front, it’s that he catches just about everything thrown his way, he makes clutch plays and that he is a YAC monster. At $15m AAV it is a huge bargain for the Bills

I agree with the thrust of your post, wholeheartedly. I do quibble with Mahomes having all day to throw. That’s not what happened, Mahomes got the ball out in 2.29 seconds vs the Bills meaning that he was hitting his 1st read. The problem that game was more scheme and on the DB’s. To put things into perspective Mahomes got the ball out in 3.32 second against the Eagles, that is over a whole second more, meaning that the Eagles were snuffing out his 1st read and by the time he got to his second read the DL got to him to the point where he uncharacteristically began seeing ghosts and running into pressure.

I wouldn’t view it that way, even though I am adamantly opposed at chasing top end WR’s via FA specially when the defense has 4 pretty big holes to address, I am definitely open to drafting a WR with a first round pick. If the WR hits you get tremendous value and it is a position of need. Coleman I believe will be a good WR in this league but he’s not the deep ball specialist that I believe the team lacks. McConkey is multidimensional, he can line up anywhere on the WR spectrum and excel. Is he better suited inside? Sure, but so are a lot of high end WR’s in the league. Make no mistake, if Ladd had been drafted by the Bills he would have added more value to the team than any other WR that was available by the time the Bills had their 1st round pick. This is not to denigrate Coleman, I like him and he will be a net plus for this team moving forward. It’s more of a pro Ladd post and that those that pigeon hole him as “just a slot guy” are flat out wrong.

DK Metcalf's rankings 24th in targets 32nd in the league in receptions 22nd in the league in receiving yards 39th in the league in TD's 35th in the league in drops 14th in the league in yards per reception 49th in the league yards after catch per reception 43rd in the league in passer rating when targeted 10th in the league in Average depth of target 33rd ranked WR in PFF This is measured against other WR's. He's entering into his last year of the contract, which means he will want a new contract. I'm guessing he'll want around $28-$32M AAV. He has a limited route tree, he's essentially a go route specialist (even though he does it remarkably well), but even when he's targeted he doesn't stand out. Teams know to play safeties over him and that essentially nullifies what he's best at. He would be best against aggressive 0 blitzes on man to man coverages where you can take deep shots, but that's a limited role. Doesn't make too much sense to me but if he were to land on the Bills I'd find a way to do some mental gymnastics to get on board.

I’m not defending their methodology just pointing out how they tabulate it

It’s a relative rating vs his peers from all previous combine attendees at that particular position. So a 10.0 means he’s the highest rated ever measured.

Holy smokes! If he’s available he would have to be the choice.

I don't doubt you but I would like to see it as well. Honestly, I don't like this sort of thinking, you essentially cancel out players that could be better than the guys who have the dimensions you are looking for. Similar to a degree of how many on this board and probably the Bills were so adamant during last years draft process to not go after Ladd McConkey. Obviously and clearly that was a mistake, he will end up being an All Pro. People didn't want to consider him because they believed he was only a slot guy, where in reality he is multi dimensional and could excel at any of WR spots, despite his snap utilization at the slot this past year. The point is, you shouldn't cross off people because you believe they aren't your prototype or fit. Really good players can find ways to get on the field and get the job done.

Except it won't be 7 or 8% of the cap. In 2025 he'd end up being less than 3%, in 2026 with the way caps are now constructed he'd be around 4%, 2027 he'd be around 5%. Look at Nick Bosa's contract, which was a 34M AAV extension. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/29037/nick-bosa#:~:text=2023-2028 Rookie Extension,average annual salary of %2434%2C000%2C000. His first year was 4.9% of the cap, second year was %5.74 and third year is 7.35% And look at how the 49ers constructed the 4th, 5th and 6th years, much of it is in base salary, which means they can convert it to a bonus and spread it out in the remaining years including the voided year. If you extrapolate that with the fact that a $24M AAV vs $34M AAV that is approximately 30% less, which if you include the rate of inflation from the point of when Bosa signed it vs when Rousseau could sign his, you are talking about nearly 40% difference. Lets split the baby and use 35%. 4.9% of which is what Bosa had for his first year would be 3.1% for 2025, second year Bosa accounted for 5.74% of the cap which would translate 3.9% and three years out Bosa accounted for 7.35% which would translate to 4.9% So yeah, you would get it exactly what you said would be acceptable to you, which was a 4% type of guy for the first three years.

Not that game, the DB's and scheme were the main problem. Mahomes got the ball out in 2.29 seconds vs the Bills, he got the ball out in 3.32 seconds against the Eagles. What that means is that Mahomes was hitting his first read vs the Bills all game long, whereas against the Eagles they were snuffing that option out and by the time he was getting to his second read the Eagles pressure was getting home.

For those that want to understand how it would work: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna188186

He's a good space eating run stuffer who doesn't get pass pressure and he's 30. His contract value for 2025 is around $8M, which is borderline too high. He could help the team but not at this contract value.

I understand this logic and on the surface it makes sense but the potential cons to this would be: - If he does put up bigger numbers and continues to ascend then we are probably talking around $27M + AAV - Extending him frees up around $9 M in cap space for 2025

I would love to have someone more proven or athletically gifted as well, but apparently based off analytics he can serve a role that the Bills need and if they can get him this cheaply and then draft a WR with one of their 3 premium picks who could turn out to be a long-term answer, then I think this could make a lot of sense. It would be a low cost, potential high reward sort of signing. And it would leave more money to go after DE, DT, CB and Safeties in a more substantive manner via FA or trade.

I was making this case a couple days ago He would be a very low cost option, most likely under $7m a year and from an analytics standpoint he is a good separator, wins against man to man and apparently is good at winning vertical routes. This should be a serious consideration for the Bills and pair it with a WR draft choice. Moneyball!

I have seen this argument made before.

Maybe “considerably” is too strong of a word, definitely better though. The other difference is that Rousseau is still continuing to improve, people don’t like that I use the word “young”, that’s just their Tremaine Edmunds PTSD talking and that PTSD has no bearings on reality. Tremaine had peaked after 2-3 years which was an above average LB with a lot of range. Rousseau has not shown any sign of peaking, he is ascending hence the career highs on a number of measurable metrics.

No one can deny that he had a very good game, the problem is that in his 7 years he had one season above 10 sacks, his pass pressure rate, tackles for loss, stops, batted passes, tackles, forced fumbles, QB hits were all for the most part considerably worse than Rousseau By any objective measure, Rousseau is considerably more valuable. Just look if you don’t believe me and then look at Rousseau’s stats https://www.pff.com/nfl/players/josh-sweat/50120 We’ve seen this story before, where a player plays amazing in the Super Bowl and then some team overpays for their services relative to their overall production

You can disagree on how you perceive his value but you can’t takeaway the stats. His stats indicate he is a top 15 DE. In regards to Brown, I never said he wouldn’t be on the team, you added that qualifier. What I said is that they could be used which is a true statement

Depends on how you look at it. Shakir is an excellent slot receiver but if you move him to the boundary he'd be a below average receiver. Just from the slot perspective, he may be a higher end just slot guy then Rousseau as a DE. I could make the argument that Shakir is a top 6/7 slot guy, and I can make a reasonable argument that Rousseau is a top 15 DE. From that perspective Shakir excels at his position more so than Rousseau. But since Shakir cannot line up effectively from the boundary position, his value diminishes. Shakir probably should have come in at around $18M AAV, the Bills got a hell of a deal on that signing.

I didn't say it was to "overpay" players, I gave a perfectly reasonable and entirely objective analysis backed up by statistical facts that puts Rousseau in the top 15% at his position. It's right there for anyone to see, I have posted it with links up above. In fact, even Sportrac has him at around a $25M AAV. So you may disagree with that, but it's not an overpay based on his overall stats. Also, in regards to AJ Brown, they could still manipulate the cap numbers to that they don't have to take that gigantic $51M cap hit in 2030 and spread it out to remaining voided years.

I think I misunderstood, you are saying he's worth $20M AAV rather than $24M ? I can understand that, and that is a defensible position.