Hapless Bills Fan

The whole point of vaccines as an epidemiological tool is to prevent the spread of disease. The problem is scientists hate to "cowboy up" and say they're sure when there really isn't direct data yet to say. For logistical reasons, that wasn't part of the clinical trials - it would require testing everyone regularly and their contacts! So that doesn't get done, and we wait until enough people are vaccinated that we can look at whether the disease transmission rate actually drops. Pfizer, which was used extensively in Israel, has some of the better data - but that doesn't mean that the J&J and Moderna don't, just that the returns aren't in yet. I put some stuff on this up in the locked "Facts only" thread.

I took pics of mine and scanned to a pdf.

And how could the Bills backfill for this? (originally posted on Mario Addison's Instagram)

I agree with the point that "there was no reason to stay in Buffalo for any amount less than what someone else is offering. Now there is". My point was, that you can hear a big-number contract, and you don't really know what, if anything, is actually guaranteed to go into the player's pocket. That's the cold hard reality of contracts in the NFL: they can sound great, but with so little guaranteed, the details matter. Say McKenzie was offered a contract that would be reported as "3 years, $6M dollars". That sounds great! He must really love the culture in B'lo to come back for so much less! Then we find out that $1.5M of that are various incentives. Now it's a 3 year, $4.5M contract with a $200k signing bonus and nothing else guaranteed. The salary is structured so that it's $1 M, $1.4M, $1.6M salary and $50k of workout and per-game roster bonuses each year. The team can cut him at the end of August and he takes home $250k, which isn't bad money by ordinary humans' standards but it ain't what we think when we hear "3 years, $6M" Whether he gets the $1M that will guarantee day 1 of the 2021 season is going to depend on how well the offensive system and ST suit him, his competition, how well he clicks with the coaches and QBs, and so forth. He knows all that with Buffalo. Buffalo says "if you want to bet on yourself, we can give you a better guarantee -$350M - and same the first year salary." We'll give you the chance to earn the KR/PR job. If you make good you can set yourself up for a bigger payday next year, either here or elsewhere." The point is, he could be reported as turning down a big contract to stay in Buffalo but when it came to the nuts-n-bolts of what's likely to be earned, he could still have had as good or a better deal for the next season here. I think you're selling McKenzie way short here. He had 1 drop on 34 targets last season. By that standard, what would you say about some of our other guys, like Gabe Davis who had 3 scored drops on 62 targets? Not to mention Knox.... McKenzie didn't join the Bills as a great route runner, and his route running visibly improved between 2019 and 2020, to the point where he was regularly asked to run routes, and not just used as "gadget boy". McKenzie's main problem is that he's 5'8" and weighs 173 lbs. He's never going to be offered the chance to make the "You or Me, and it's gonna be ME" contested catches Allen is willing to throw at 6'2", 216 lb Gabe Davis. Neither is he gonna be able to block like Gabe Davis showed he can, because in blocking, other things being equal, mass and momentum matter.

😅😅😅 And where were you standing, Good Sir, whilst passing them out?

No, they weren't. And as myself and others have pointed out, there are known extensions (Matakevich) and known void years (Sanders) that aren't reflected in fan-facing sites like Spotrac. As far as the contracts we knew about, they may have been over, but not by nearly that amount. Maybe $1M or $2M.

Clowney is striking me as one of those "Looks Like Tarzan, Plays Like Jane" types. What makes you see him differently? I think Seattle and Tennessee have some pretty solid teams, team cultures, and coaching. If they got "see ya buddy!" effort out of Clowney why would McDermott and Frazier be different? IMHO what made Clowney look great was playing with a DL that included JJ Watt, Brandon Dunn, and DJ Reader and as a bookend to Whitney Mercilius. When JJ Watt is getting 16 sacks and teams are all worried about him, it's easier to rack up 9 of your own, especially when the rest of the front 7 are solid. When you're expected to be "the Man" and lead the team to feast, it's harder to "eat"

I think "best is as best does". I lost my appetite for being happy about how a Bills position group looks "on paper" in the year 2012. Ouch.

She did, but that was 3 years ago and to both their credits, they seem to have both grown up some. But it might be like drafting Tom Brady - most of the time when you pick a QB in the 6th round, the best you can hope for is that it ends quietly. More on the statement from the lawyer: https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/03/23/deshaun-watsons-lawyer-says-allegations-are-false-accuses-accuser-of-blackmail/ This seems weak sauce to me. Since these are all apparently women Watson hired to provide massage services, shouldn't his lawyer already have names and the dates/locations? How does the lawyer intend to "fully investigate their claims" that information from his client wouldn't enable?

We either need to invest in a DE or a DLman in the 1st 3 rounds if there's anyone we like. I think we need to invest in another FA on DL as well. Obada was a vet minimum guy last year. I doubt this used up the money they freed by renegotiating Tre.

Another Panther - Heads will explode on this Board I don't have as much problem with it as some, especially at the start where they had to somehow persuade FA to sign for a team that had a 17 year playoff drought - but we are getting to the point where jokes about agents Photoshopping their FA clients into Panthers gear and faxing that to the Bills FO might have some element of truth

Yes, I missed that.

Good points all, I did not take into account pushing a couple of $0.815M - $0.82M cap hits out of the 51-highest, since that's where we are now, and good point on the Sanders reported "void year" of $1.375M (Overthecap has it, though not quite correctly, one has to do math). That means signing McKenzie only counts about $0.34M. The fundamental point is: since Spotrac shows us at >$3.4M negative cap before signing McKenzie, that money has to have already come from somewhere. Of course, adding in Sanders void year to Matakevich extension, that's now $2.3M. If there are a couple other "accounting tricks" in some of the signings or, if (say) AJ Klein also renegotiated his roster bonus into signing bonus for $0.9M....it's possible that there could be $3.8M of space already buried in the contract details of our current signings. Hmmm.

Extremely doubtful. The Josh Allen and Tre' Edmunds works will start with a decision to pick up their 5th round option in early May - May 5th Then it will be an extension, that will impact 2022 at the earliest. Beane won't open his book of strategy to you, but if he says something like "we'll work on resigning Josh Allen's contract this summer or early fall", that's what he means.

Not necessarily. Spotrac has the Bills at -$3.4M in cap space That's without the Matakevich extension, so maybe -2.4M afterwards (a 2 year contract that pays him the same could easily shave $1M off this year's cap) This is after Trubisky, Wallace, Taiwan Jones, and Hollister signings but without McKenzie At a guess, they have a couple offers out (I think they may want Dean Marlow and Darron Lee said he had an offer sheet) McKenzie's cap hit is said to be $1.15. Call it maybe another $3.4M for McKenzie, plus Marlow and Lee or similar "value" FA pickups at LB and safety. $5.8-ish million needed to stay in the "black" on cap with the above $1.5M for draft picks ---------------------------------- $7.3-ish needed just for that Restructuring White to free up $7.5M, fundamentally could just be enough to keep us "in the black" on current commitments or maybe 2 more "value" FA pickups, and sign rookies I don't see Ertz in here, nor another guy who costs $5-6M on cap That's not to say the Bills can't make a bigger signing happen, by re-structuring Dion or others. It's just to reiterate what I said yesterday - since the NFL won't allow teams to carry a negative cap, Feliciano's contract and the rest of these guys going through, meant that someone already restructured that Spotrac hadn't caught up with yet.

Just a note that there's "take less" and "take less". A team can offer him a bit higher annual dollar value and a multi-year contract, and if it doesn't have much in the way of guaranteed money or the money comes in the back end, it will only put more in his bank account if he stays on the team. If McKenzie has good agents, they looked hard at the quality of the QB, how the OC uses his players, and what the rest of the roster is like and considered that. There's an aspect of "bet on myself" too. If he has a "breakout" year, he could theoretically win a bigger contract next year. Arizona and Miami wouldn't like being lumped in that "wasn't in a position to win" though

This makes more logical sense

Why do you say his hands are suspect? It doesn’t show in his catch % or drops, both good

Instagram model seems to have worked out ok for Poyer. But I think I understand what you mean. Discrete professionals who get paid well for services they agree to provide would seem like the better way to go for these guys

I don't think that follows, no. This could all settle out like many a wealthy athlete's troubles have done in the past...Kobe, Ben Roethlisberger, Greg Hardy, the barroom brawl with off duty officers for McCoy etc. Money and a great legal team can make a lot of problems go away. On the other hand, maybe this will be too big to go away and/or will result in legal action as well as civil charges. The point is, a successful trade for Watson will be a "chips all in" move for the FO that trades for him. They will have to give up serious resources in the way of players and picks, and earmark serious cap towards him. Those kind of moves are career-enhancing for the GM who makes the move if it all works out...and a career-buster for the GM who makes that move only to see the team lose the draft/player resources, AND the services of the player they traded them for for a critical period of time. He'd be a "cautionary tale".

I could be wrong, but I don't think that was ever in the possibilities

Gabe Davis seems happy he's back

I have lost track. Last count I heard was 22.

Until demonstrated otherwise, Allen to Diggs is the pathway to points. Now that I think about it....Allen has said several times that his HS baseball coach used to call him "Tortuga" (tortise), in other words...a Turtle Stefon Diggs attended University of Maryland...The TERRAPINS, in other words, a Turtle Allen to Diggs...the TURTLE offense!!!! GO BILLS!

Reported that several teams are still interested in trading for Watson: https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/03/21/report-several-teams-remain-interested-in-a-deshaun-watson-trade/