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Thurman#1

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Everything posted by Thurman#1

  1. The quick answer is no. Manziel's problem was his atttitude and inability to work hard.
  2. It's all about the team. Everything else matters, now and always. You don't draft for this year. If you do, you're not doing it right. Needs for this year are filled in FA and trades. Diggs fills the primary need. Most of the rest of the offensive improvement will come down to how much better Josh got. BPA, at positions of relative need, which is most of them, but not all. One could answer because Reid may have thought that RB was the BPA at a position of relative need.
  3. Getting a good player? Yeah, maybe but maybe not. But surely there'll be plenty of good ones still available. But probably 60% of those guys will underachieve expectations.
  4. Worth remembering, though, that sometimes drops are caused by passes thrown too fast, without touch. Not all of them, by any means, but Josh sometimes rifling short passes in at high speeds contributed to the problem. Though he did improve over his rookie year. We've seen real improvement in many areas of his game, and that's really encouraging.
  5. Great work. It's hard for me to care that much about first round mocks with the Bills not drafting till the 2nd, but I appreciate your effort and think that's a great job. I saw that in The News today Daniel Jeremiah said that because of COVID and how everyone's been in the buildings for so long not out there mixing, that he'd talked to several GMs who said that they thought that this year the mock drafting crowd is further off than they've ever been. I think it was Jeremiah again, in the same article, who also said that because the scouts from every team aren't out there together talking and building groupthink and consensus unconsciously, that between the teams there may be far less consensus about who should go where. There may be a lot of teams astonished that this guy went so early and this guy went so late. I'm looking forward to seeing how correct that opinion is. It'd be fun if there are a lot of surprises this year. In any case, I'm amazed by the amount of work and care you and Gunner and others put into it. Fantastic.
  6. Trades do make it even more difficult, but even if the NFL outlawed trades for a year, or if each pick was just #1, #2, #3, with who does the pick completely eliminated as a factor, it isn't almost impossible, it's beyond reasonable probability.
  7. Just fine. That Fins win in the shortened season you talked about? I was living in Rosslyn, just across the bridge from Georgetown that year. I jogged over the bridge and the fans were going absolutely fricking insane. Traffic was stopped on M Street and every single car was hammering on the horns while fans on the sidewalks jumped up on hoods and danced and nobody in the cars minded. They didn't mind one tiny little bit that it was a shortened season. Then or now. That one that was really close in the 4th quarter with the Fins ahead 17-3 and 10:10 remaining in the 4th and Washington goes for it on 4th and one, and everyone knows it's going to Riggins and it does and Miami packs the box and when Riggins busts through the line there's nobody left between him and the goal and he sprints 43 yards for a TD, and Washington goes on to win? Any football fan older than about five years old at that point does. It was a terrific game. How many remember that Washington had gone 8-1 that year in a shortened season? Not many. How many Washington fans care? Basically none do. That Riggins run is one of the franchise's iconic moments, still played on local TV again and again and again.
  8. I think they're going to be trying to find an edge who'll deserve to be paid that kind of money.
  9. None of the draft pick value charts would allow that to happen without teams giving us 40 - 50% discounts, and teams just don't do that. Still, he could do that if he trades away a day two pick next year. He's not going to do that, though. Thank goodness
  10. Demanding certain positions will likely lead to disappointment. They'll go BPA, particularly early. Positions of need factor into their boards, but they won't be using checklists, nor should they. It's bad draft strategy. I'd hope that maybe 3 - 4 guys would see significant time this year, as backups, platoon guys, etc. If there's a starter, that'd be great, but not so likely, injuries excepted. Two to three years down the road it'd be great to see two and hopefully three guys develop into starters. I'd make that number higher if we had a first-round pick this year. But we don't.
  11. Yeah, I really blame him for getting so few yards on those passes they don't throw to him and the times when someone else ran the ball. A really good RB would have run his stats up from the bench. The question isn't how well he did when they didn't get him the ball. It's how well he did when he did get the ball. And the answer to that is ... he did very well indeed.
  12. No. Fournette's fifth year option would be for $10,189,000 in 2021 according to OverTheCap.com. That's nutty money, particularly when you've already got a cheap talented #1 RB. He was damn good last year, so my guess is Jax doesn't let him go cheap. They're not going to get a 1st for him, IMO, but it also isn't likely to be a 5th and a 6th or something along those lines. No, thanks. EDIT: Joe B. has a good point about maybe getting a comp pick back for him after this year. Hadn't considered the possibility of just keeping him for one year. That would make it a bit more likely but I just don't see it myself. Still think Jax isn't going to let him go at a price that would make it a reasonable move for us.
  13. You say JAGs, castoffs or end of career guys. But in fact, neither McCoy nor Singletary fit those three categories. McCoy got here when he was 27 and had three terrific seasons here. And Singletary is a young talented guy, one of the better backs in the league. As for the rest, you've got a number of FBs listed there, and that's not much more than a distraction, as they won't ever run up many good stats, but in fact, our FBS haven't been JAGs, castoffs or end of career guys either. They've been very good player, but not really ball carriers. And since 2015 you've got two different scheme / regime changes, so any team in that circumstance will probably see a lot of roster churn and that's likely to include a lot of #2s, #3s, #4s and guys who are primarily special teams players. As for wanting two really good RBs in case one gets injured ... why only RB? What happens if Allen gets injured? Or Tre-Davious or Tremaine or ... When a guy gets injured there's likely to be a bit of a dropoff. The idea is to limit the dropoff because there's no way to have equal talent everywhere for your second stringers. Take the Chiefs last year. Here are their RBs: Damien Williams, the 31 year-old LeSean McCoy, Darwin Thompson and Darrel Williams. Where are the two guys who aren't JAGs, castoffs or end of career guys? Hell, where's one? It seems very likely that they'll bring in another guy or two in the draft and FA. But if you're drafting for this year, you're not doing it right. Draft picks, especially higher-round picks, should be taken with the long-term in mind. And in the long-term, we've got our #1 RB for the next few years in Singletary. And we've got longer-term needs at Buffalo nickel, interior OL, CB, LB assuming we might not be able to afford to re-sign Milano, and our very old EDGE group. Not one under 30.
  14. OK, we're not so far apart then. Enjoy the draft and the season.
  15. There are a lot of good guys in the midrounds. I like AJ Dillon myself, but Evans looks good to me, as do Moss, Perine and Eno Benjamin. Oh and Joshua Kelley too. A lot of different types depending on what they're looking for.
  16. Matt Waldman in his deep dive on RBs (I started a thread about it recently with the link if you're curious) said that Taylor was like a matador stepping out of the way in pass blocking situations, just avoiding it. I have to admit, I hate hearing that and I suspect that for our FO, who say that they like guys who love football, will really downgrade Jonathan Taylor for this issue. Waldman still had him 2nd-best in the class, felt he was the best pure runner in the group but said he was just unwilling to pass-block. Here it is:
  17. I remember the name but not much more than that, I'm afraid. Good story. Thanks for posting it.
  18. I'm kidding nobody, I'm making a point. The measuring stick is not the Chiefs. It's not any one team. Every year people install a new "measuring stick." That way is madness. That way you're always aiming at a moving target. When your goal is what Beane and McDermott's is ... to be consistently competitive over the long term, you look at the small group of teams that have managed that and you use that group as your target. What you absolutely do not do is pick one team. Because the next year you'll have to go with a new team, whoever wins the Super Bowl that year. You look at the group who have gone where you want to go and been competitive for a long time. The Chiefs have absolutely not been competitive for a long time. For a long time they've been good enough to make the playoffs and get knocked out by the good teams. You can make an argument that they had a shot last year. It's a reasonable contention but I disagree. Their defense just wasn't good enough, and that's why they lost every one of the four games they lost and then the Pats game. Last year on the other hand, they'd greatly upgraded the D and had several games where the offense wasn't all that productive but the defense made up for it. In 2018 they had zero wins when they scored less than 26. In 2019, three wins where they scored 24 or less. I'm not in any way arguing they're not a great team. They are. But the difference between the very good team of 2018 and the excellent team of 2019 was defense. And they haven't yet proved themselves consistent, though it wouldn't surprise me a tiny little bit if they do over the next few years. And when they do, they will become one of the group of teams that are the measuring stick for teams that want to be competitive not just for a year or two but consistently over the long term. You say, " How awful of a plan that must be, having a top tier offense." It isn't an awful plan. But it's only half of a really good plan. The best plan is to not have a major weakness on either side of the ball. In 2018 the final score of the Super Bowl was 13 - 3. The best teams, the consistent ones, can win many types of games because both units are good. The Chiefs defense meant they weren't on the field for that game. And the year before that, Philly won with the 7th-ranked offense and the 4th-ranked defense. Follow the latest winner and the target's always moving. Which is why you don't play it that way. Oh, and OF COURSE you have to outscore the Chiefs. Same with every team. But you can outscore a team 47 to 45 or 10 -7. Works either way, against every team including KC. Outscoring a team is done by both sides of the ball.
  19. While I do think Brady was an awful lot of the reason the Pats did so well over the years, I find it hard to argue with Belichick at #1 with his record of success. And I hate the guy, and think they cheat. But with his record I think it's hard to argue. To put a terrific lineup out there for so very long with low low draft picks in each round is a great achievement.
  20. That metaphor just doesn't fit the situation. I mean, you can pretend if you want that every draft pick works out the way you think it will, but that's what it would be ... pretending. Remember 1st rounder Laurence Maroney? Only slightly, right? Me too. Ki-Jana Carter, 1st overall? Yeah, they overdrafted him but everybody liked him in the top ten or fifteen picks. Remember Kenny Irons in the 2nd? Bishop Sankey in the 2nd? Montee Ball in the 2nd? I could go on and on. It's pretending also that the best few FAs left are Pintos. That's just nonsense. If you wanted to make that metaphor more realistic you'd have to put it something like ... you can get an inexpensive Corvette with minimal wear (college ball) knowing that a very fair number of them turn out to be lemons though plenty perform well, or you could bring in a more beat-up nicked-up old muscle car that you have a terrific history on with an engine that has shown itself to perform well over time but also knowing that most cars bought that way don't have much left in terms of ceiling and will wear out within the next few years. You don't want an FA? Fine, fair enough. The FAs are Pintos? Nonsense.
  21. A top twelve RB? How is he not? 6th highest RB YPA in the league among backs with 100 or more carries. Raise the standard up to 150 carries and he's 2nd highest. More, the backs that were higher played on the Niners (Mostert and Breida), Ravens (Edwards), Cardinals (Drake), Titans (Henry). All of those teams except the Cardinals have offensive lines that are conspicuously better than ours. He was absolutely performing as a top 12 back in the NFL the last half of the season. You've made it plain you don't want to see that, but that doesn't make it any less true.
  22. The measuring stick isn't the Chiefs. If you do it that way, what you are aiming for will change every single year as different teams built different ways win the trophy. You're aiming at a moving target that way. The measuring stick is the teams that have been consistently competing for a championship. Why? Because they've made it clear that's what their goal is. And with those teams (Pats, Steelers, Ravens, Packers ... maybe one or two more and maybe you can squeeze the Chiefs in there. But what you find about those Chiefs is that they've been good on offense for a while but only really competing for a championship this year when they finally got their defense among the best ones in the league. What you find among all of them is that they have a damn good QB and that neither the defense nor the offense is bad. You want some balance. Oh, and the Chiefs scored 28.2 points a game. Arguing that the Bills have to be TD better each week or they're not good enough is ridiculous.
  23. Brandon Beane, please draft the best players available. Please don't draft a QB early, but other than that do what's best for the long-term good of this team, please, and that's get the BPA.
  24. Yes, please. Here are his freshman highlights. I love the way he won't go down, the way he bounces off, throws people away and just runs through contact. This year, Dillon faced stacked boxes on 75% of his plays, as BC's offense was predictable and Dillon-heavy. That makes it hard and yet he was consistently productive. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8rBNT-LQ3Cs In any case, the great thing about this year's RB crop is that you can get real NFL talent right through the middle rounds. There are a lot of guys they could grab and get real production.
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