Thurman#1

Really? Singletary "was not shifty enough in the open field to break a big gain, nor was he fast enough to squirt out of there for a big gain by outrunning the defensive linemen and LBs"? Seriously? You think he can't even outrun linemen? Frankly, that observation is nutso. Good grief. He's among the top five or so shiftiest backs in the league. He caused missed tackles at just about the highest rate in the league. Those are ridiculous interpretations. And while Singletary isn't a 4.4 guy he is certainly fast enough to outrun DLs and most LBs, particularly in the open field. In any case, the vast majority of passes to RBs around the league aren't aimed mostly at getting big gains. Coaches hope that a certain percentage will be broken long but they're mostly going to be shorter catches. You look at the best pass-catching backs in the league and you see that Tarik Cohen averages 7.6 yards per catch, Ekeler around 10, Fournette 7.5, James White 8.8, even Kamara averages 8.5. They're not worried about Singletary because he's not going to be breaking off 30 yarders all the time. Virtually nobody does.

Good stuff.

Yes, he's traded up. But except for the major haul of picks they acquired to bring in a QB, where they ended up lucking into not only a QB but also Edmund with the extras ... Beane's never traded away anything from the first two days. More than that, he's never emptied out a round. That is to say, he's never traded a pick unless he either had another pick left in the same round or he'd already doubled up in an earlier round. If he keeps that up, he'll only trade away one of our two sixth rounders, unless he accumulates some extra picks from trading back or trading player for pick. So I could definitely see him trading up, but the folks who expect a big move upwards are expecting him to break his tendencies. Agreed that pass rusher and receiver are bigger needs than most realise, though I don't think size is the factor you do. If we need a big guy, they can just keep Duke Williams.

Using the Drafttek chart, and assuming that the 2nd pick in round 2 and round 3 are both the last picks to make them as cheap as possible, acquiring those two picks would cost us 270 + 82 = 352. Trading away all the rest of our picks, the 4th, the 5th, the two 6ths and the 7th would bring us in ... 44 + 23.4 +15 + 7.4 + 1 = 90.5. So, gee, we'd be almost there.Only short by 262 points. Which means he'd only have to throw in the #33 pick next year, the first pick of the 2nd round. Yeah, I think this could happen in Bizarro World.

Never mind our original pick. Packaging the rest of the draft wouldn't get us up to #32 unless some team was willing to give us a major discount. Like about 40% off. There never was a reasonable option to move up to the first. And with only three picks in the first 130, they're not likely to give up any of those. If they do move up in the 2nd, odds are it won't be by more than a pick or three.

Clowney, maybe? Or the Bengals trading the first pick or someone trading up for Tua?

Yards are very far from meaningless. On the contrary. yards is a very important stat. It corresponds perfectly with field position. The more yards you give up, the better field position the other team will have and the poorer yours will be on both offense and to a lesser degree defense. The fewer yards you give up, the better field position your team gets.

Picking one? Yards Allowed. Points Allowed is more important, but it isolates the defense very poorly. For example, if your QB throws a pick six, Points Allowed puts the blame for that on your defense, which is outright dunder-headed. If your RB fumbles and the other team recovers on your 1 yard-line and takes four plays to hammer it in, again, Points Allowed blames your defense seven points worth for what was actually a pretty decent defensive series. Worse, if on the same fumble, your defense sacks them three times, forcing a 42-yard field goal, Points Allowed blames your defense for what is actually a resounding success. Defense holds the opposing offense to zero yards on three plays? Your returner fair catches? Your offense gains zero yards on three plays and the opponent runs the punt back for a TD? Points Allowed says your defense is at fault. The defense is probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 60% - 75% responsible for Points Allowed. Field position is huge in how likely a team is to score on any give drive, and the offense and STs have tremendous say in how bad or how good the opposing offense's field position is. Number of drives faced is also huge in how successful your defense will be in Points Allowed. If your defense faced 20 more drives than another team did, they'll allow more points even if they're exactly as good. And again, offense has a huge role in how many drives your defense will face. Yards Allowed almost completely isolates the defense. Over the course of a season yards defended will not be wildly different from team to team. Is it a perfect measure? Nah, far from it, there is none that's close. Turnovers in particular are also big, though some of that - particularly fumbles caused vs. fumbles recovered - comes down to luck. But if you have to pick one, Yards Allowed is probably the best. That's why it's how defenses are ranked.

Oh, please. That old "some team's reject" argument is just plain ridiculous. Here are just some of the Hall of Famers (or future ones) who have been at some point in their careers FAs before playing very well with another team: Reggie White, Drew Brees, Deion Sanders, Charles Woodson, Brett Favre when he still had some terrific football in him, Tom Brady ... Not to mention Bryce Paup, London Fletcher and Takeo Spikes (yes, he was officially an RDA when Cincy didn't match) for the Bills. Sam Adams, Hyde and Poyer, James Lofton, and Big Ted Washington also come to mind. Also, Priest Holmes, Simeon Rice, James Farrior, Mike Vrabel, Mark Ingram, Tyrann Mathieu and Mitchell Schwartz for the champion Chiefs, Richard Sherman for the other Super Bowl team, Andrew Whitworth, Alex Mack, Calais Campbell, Allen Robinson II, Za"Darius Smith, ... it goes on and on and on. And we don't need to get somebody who other teams are scared of. It would be fine if we did but it is anything but a need. The guy other teams are scared of is Devin Singletary. We'd be just fine pulling a move like the Polian-Levy Bills did when they needed a 2nd RB behind Thurman and they brought in a "reject," (your word, not mine) from Green Bay who had averaged 4.0 yards per carry in his three years there which led to the Packers letting him go in free agency. Kenneth Davis did just fine here as "some team's reject."

It's really not doubtful at all. Last year Beane signed Yeldon three days before the draft.

I think that's fair ... if the guy turns out to be a gadget player. I believe there's a fair argument that Shenault can become a good receiver who can also be used as a gadget player. I'm not 100% convinced, but I think it's possible. He still needs work on route running, and yet he often gets separation. That's a guy who might become a receiver down the road, IMO. Isn't McCaffrey at his heart a gadget player, though? Not that Shenault is McCaffrey. But isn't McCaffrey an example of a really successful gadget guy? In any case, you don't draft people for how well they will do their first year, particularly not in this situation with such a strong roster. You draft a guy for to enrich the roster, to maximize the talent pool over the time he's here. Few if any of the guys we draft this year will be likely to start or do much more than platoon, play STs or be depth, injury replacements or play in spots. That's not a problem when it's caused by a good roster. A big problem when it's caused by bad drafting, but so far Beane's drafting has been good. You could be right, though, that he turns out to just be a gadget guy. And maybe that as a gadget guy he might not have much impact. If so, a team that picks him early will be disappointed.

Man, that's word for word what I should have said. Can't believe I spent so much time on it. Food for thought. Thanks.

Interesting. I've been sort of hoping they wouldn't go corner in the 2nd, that they could fill that need later. I keep falling into that trap, whatever I'm thinking about that day, that's the position I hope they go with round 2. It's seductive. You've given me something to think about. Thanks again. Your work is amazing, I honestly don't know how you manage it. Great stuff.

To go up 5 - 6 slots they're going to probably have to give up their 4th rounder. With only three picks in the top 130, I don't see that happening. I guess we'll see.

Dugger, Greenard and Terrell Lewis available at #53. I imagine the FO would be thrilled if it falls that way. Thanks, Gunner. Great stuff. I see maybe four or five other guys of interest going in the next ten or so picks. Should be interesting.

"Yards receiving are usually considered pretty reliable," you say. Yeah, reliable, but totally unreliable in terms of showing what you say it shows. Reliable to show how many yards the guy had receiving during that specific period? Yeah. Reliable for deciding who is better than who? Ridiculous. Receiving yards for one year are reliable to show how good or bad a receiver is? No, obviously not. If you believe that, you have to believe that Jordan Howard is awful at catching passes since he only had 69 yards this year, and the 298 he had as a rookie don't count for you. Darren Sproles must suck as a pass receiver for you because he only had 24 yards this year, and looking at only one year under one system in one set of conditions is apparently enough to show how good someone is. It's a pathetic argument. If you try to use this year's yards to decide who's good, you'd have to say that 2019 proved that Tevin Coleman is a worse receiver than Singletary. Yeah, that would be a ridiculous contention, but if you go with your logic, 2019 proved that even though when given the chance, Coleman has showed himself to be an excellent receiver when called upon, having years of 421 and 299 yards. But this year, Coleman had fewer than Singletary, so by your faulty logic we know Singletary is better. More, we can apparently show that TJ Yeldon is only 2/3rds of the receiver that Singletary is. according to the Maryland Method. Sure, Yeldon had 487 yards in 2018 when they threw to him, but by your logic, that doesn't matter, as apparently considering only the 2019 stats is enough to show how good someone is. By your argument you'd have to say that last seasons proves Singletary is a better pass receiver than Breida, for another. You'd have to be willing to kid yourself that last season proves that Singletary is twice the receiver that Ty Montgomery is ... it's all there in black and white as last year Montgomery only had 90 yards while Singletary had 194. It's a poor argument. And your argument about saying that the guy isn't an alcoholic because he lasted the whole season is precisely on point ... in showing how completely you've missed the point. Either way, an argument that simply doesn't work. Say a guy doesn't drink much for a whole season, as you suggest. Again, doesn't even begin to show whether he's an alcoholic or not. Was he in jail for that season? Was he a dry alcoholic, who's got his two-year badge but will be an alcoholic for life? Was he on naltrexone? Did he hire a guy to stop him drinking by keeping him away from temptation? When you have a small sample size you can't prove squat. Just as it is with football players, if you want to have even a slightly complete idea, you have to look at him over time and in different situations. If you don't want to be included in the "We don't know," category, fair enough. But in that case, the category you're putting yourself in is the "Doesn't know, but thinks he does" group. Which is the saddest of all groups. And man is your last paragraph a sad stab at logic. I highlighted it in red above, for everyone, where you were forced to completely misquote me to attempt to make a point. First, I said, "Singletary could easily become a much more frequent target next year. Or not. We don't know." You, in apparent desperation, reply to that by saying, "If it "easily happens" that a guy often improves in the second year, why isn't everybody a starter after the second year." You used quotation marks, for something I never said. You used quotation marks when you actually completely twist what I said. When you have to pretend someone said something they didn't, man, your inability to make your argument shows like a lighthouse beacon on a starless moonless night. To answer your question, I said "he could easily become a much more frequent target." Your question, "why isn't everybody a starter after the second year?" isn't relevant to what I said. But here's what is relevant, plenty of guys make their biggest improvements between their rookie and second seasons. And as I also said, some don't. But there's certainly a very decent chance he does. It's an extremely poor argument you're making. Maybe they'll work with him more this year on receiving. Maybe they'll call more passes to the RBs than they did last year. Maybe Allen will check down more on plays when it makes sense, the way he should have on that long bomb to Patrick DiMarco when Singletary was literally ten yards open. Or maybe Allen won't, or they won't run more pass plays targeting RBs. We don't know. What we do know, though, is there will be a ton of factors coming into play determining how many passes an RB in this offense catches .... same as there was last year and every year.

Oh, yeah, those half-fumbles and quarter-fumbles will kill you every time. Totally makes sense.

And again ... assuming that because somebody was #45 in receiving as a rookie that he's the 45th best receiver in the league or that 32 teams have a better receiving back is stunningly bad logic. The evidence doesn't even begin to show that. It's like arguing because a guy didn't drink much alcohol this week he's not an alcoholic. A million other factors in play, including time on the field, play calling, how good at and how often the QB checks down and on and on. That simply does not make sense in any way shape or form. Singletary could easily become a much more frequent target next year. Or not. We don't know. It certainly does make sense that they would work on his receiving with him. Guys going into their second year often improve. Not a sure thing he'll improve but it could easily happen. I still remember that play against Houston where Singletary was ten yards open and Allen threw long to the fullback, never looking towards Singletary to see he was wide open for a nice gain that would have put him in the open field.

Not addressing RB in FA could be telling us that they want another young guy. Or it could be telling us that Beane wants the FA contracts to fall a bit more before he scoops one up. Again, he brought in Yeldon 3 or 4 days before the draft last year. He could do the same thing again this year. Keep 'em in the pressure cooker a bit longer 'cause they're not done yet. You noted the possibility but worth pointing out that this is in Beane's history. My guess is they do both, drafting someone in round 3 or after.

Don't know if I'd say he failed in the front office either. Being fired by Cleveland may well mean you know what you're doing. And that's where Lombardi was last fired from. After that he was hired by the Pats and quit after a year or two to switch professions. " 'I’d love to stay at the Patriots, and Bill [Belichick] and I have a great relationship, however I thought it was time for me to go into another career.” "Lombardi's reference to his contract expiring highlights how during his time in New England, he was still getting paid from the contract he signed to become Browns general manager in 2013. He was let go by the Browns after one season. "Lombardi, who has now landed with Fox Sports as a football analyst, said he has been working on a book. “ 'I thought if the clock was going too far along, I wasn’t going to have the time and opportunity to do that,' he said. 'It was my decision. Bill and I worked it out; there were only two people in the room when we decided what we were going to do.' ” "Lombardi noted that he has spent more than 30 years in the NFL, and is the only person to work for Bill Walsh, Belichick and Al Davis, which is something he wants 'to put on paper' in the form of the book. https://www.espn.com/blog/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4794850/michael-lombardi-explains-his-parting-of-ways-with-patriots I'm not a huge fan, but he's OK.

You fill needs with FA. The Diggs trade fits that too. With the draft you build the team. The draft is more for the future. If a guy can start right away, great, but that's not what you draft for. You draft to build your talent base. They have gone out of their way to point out that their goal is to be consistent for the long term. You don't do that by changing early draft picks to better fit immediate needs. You're likely to get shocked. Expect BPA

Roberts is really good as a returner. He'd still have the job if we got Shenault, I think. Wouldn't mind Shenault at all, though, if they think he's BPA.

You and I disagree more than we agree, but I'm with you on this. It would also have been a reasonable non-call, but by the rules did he commit the foul? Yup. It could have been maybe legal if he had extended his arms and made it obvious that he was patty-caking him to stop him. Instead he brought his arms in and made it look like he was putting his shoulder and helmet into the guy. It's a shame because it wasn't unsportsmanlike or vicious. But yeah, it broke the rule. We didn't lose that game because of the refs. We lost it because we weren't good enough in the second half. And it's not clear if anyone's still arguing with you here, but you're dead right on the parallel/perpendicular thing. The line a player makes is the way he's facing and moving. If you're moving/facing towards the sideline, if you keep running straight you'll hit the sideline. You don't hit a line if you're moving parallel to it. You hit a line if you're moving perpendicular to it. Ford was moving perpendicular to the sideline and parallel to the goal line. No dispute there.

Last year they added Yeldon just three or four days before the draft. I think it's very possible that they add a guy or two just before or after. If you get guys now, they're feeling the pressure and are likely to be very flexible on price. Yup, that's my guess.

He's an extremely thoughtful and well-connected guy. Puts out videos breaking down individual players virtually daily and all you have to do is watch to know that he knows what he is talking about. He's been a guest on Murph's show a bunch of times. As he says below, he's written for the New York Times, Football Outsiders and he makes his living these days mostly by selling his excellent draft guide the RSP (Rookie Scouting Portfolio). Look at this, and scroll down for a ton of videos: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxk6t1o84XOM67FL7YoxC1Q If Waldman is right and Taylor is an excellent pure runner but a matador as far as a pass blocker, he does not sound anything like a McDermott/Beane guy.