What do you think are chances 4 starting QB?

[Pyrite Gal]

As part of the quest to create yet another meaningless number and stat in pro football, I decided to conjure up a Bills Starting QB Index (or the BSQI to make it sound far more impressive than it is which is not saying much).

 

My BSQI is a statement of of what I think is the % chance that a particular player is likely to be the starter on opening day.

 

Among the factors that I used to produce these numbers were:

 

1. What does the team say publicly on the depth chart

2. How future oriented do I think we are and what is the upside of a player

3. The contract he has and the amount of scratch Ralph is paying him

4. Injury reports

5. A players performance historically

6. A huge dose of how a player performed in the last game (it is a what did you do for me lately league)

7. A combination of chicken entrails and mystic crystals placed in a paper bag and whirled over my head and then cast on the ground to reveal an answer (aka what does my gut tell me)

8. Other factors I haven't remembered to write down

 

At any rate, using this tested statistical method, I produced the above numbers which I think represent the current chances each QB will eventually emerge as the starter. In general, I think that the fact Holcomb is first on the depth chart recognizes the reality that on the field last year he was far more effective than Losman.

 

However, I think that Holcomb's age and the fact he has never grasped and held the starting QB job anywhere makes it pretty doubtful he is the Bills QB of the future. By playing him the Bills do little to prepare a player who will likely lead them to the playoffs in 2007 as KH would have to be resigned in what would be his 11th season and for any player in double digits a contract has got to be a speculative thing.

 

Marv and Ralph as Golden Boys want to win NOW as who knows when the grim reaper will knock on their door so if Holcomb givs them that much more of a chance to win than Losman, I do not doubt they will go with Holcomb. However, all things being equal (which they never are in real life) I think they want the heavy investment in the young QB to pay off and Losman will get every chance to do the job.

 

I think Holcomb is fist on the depth chart as a recognition of reality but also as a challenge to JP to see how he responds. Nall was acquired as he is another outside possibility that he has learned a lot watching Favre and practicing and though quite doubtful he will step up and grab the starting position by the throat.

 

Nall has the advantage of being a younger past NFL back-up than Holcomb with some possible potential (though not even the achievments as a spot starter of Holcomb) but lacks the college rep and upside of Losman. he strikes me as being here as much because of a lack of belief in JP due to his play and Holcomb due to his age than because of any real world production he has had.

 

Ochs and Woodbury strike me much as camp fooder and scout team types. Ochs is competing to show enough to merit being on the PS and if Woodbury makes the team it will be as an ST player who happens to also play QB rather than as a QB whp also happens to play ST.

 

So my current BSQI (the emphasis is on the first two letters) gies an equal 4 out of 10 shot to Losman and Holcomb (though if you pushed me even though JP is #2 on the depth chart even greater fake numeric specificity would give Losman a lead at 40.1% and Holcomb at best 39.9%) shows a pretty even battle. Nall will get a good look-see but needs to produce quickly when the pre-season starts a it is already an uphill battle for him to be more than the disaster QB. Yet all things are in play under the new regime.

 

However, it is voluntary minicamp and one should really not read too much into the results produced this weekend where the boys were practicing inside against their own team. While this weekend should not be discouted totally as you only get one chance to make a first impression and this was the first time on the field under Jauron, results are fairly meaningless this weekend.

 

So, overall answering this challenge involves way too much thought and specificity than this deserves at this point. However, given that there have been repetitive posts on TSW with folks fact-free opinion on the QB situation, I thought i would post this as an opportunity for folks to furnish instead their fake-fact opinions on the QB battle.

[Dr. Trooth]

I do not know how anyone could make any type of informed answer to this. The poll would, essentially, be a beauty contest.

 

Why? Because no one really knows what this offense is going to be about. Most may assume that because Fairchild is the OC, he will replicate the Rams offense. If that is the case then, one would have to give Kelly Holcomb the nod because the Rams offense was based on quick decisions (throws) down the field (not deep down field - Holcomb's arm doesn't have that range). JP looked much like a deer in headlights last season not seeming to know when and where to thow. Nobody knows much about Nall... for all we know, he could be head and shoulders above everyone else. I certainly don't have a clear picture of what Fairchild's offense is going to like like and I don't know of any TBDers that do.

 

The "trooth" is ... we don't know what we don't know.

[JimBob2232]

I say 70% Losman 20% Nall 10% Holcomb.

 

I say this because we know what we have in holcomb. A good backup. Either of the other two COULD turn out to be great. We need to make a decision on losman one way or the other. Give him his time this year. Let him prove himself.

[Rico]

I voted for Other #s Ithink placed below.

[CajunBillsBacker]

Definitely JP Losman - 40% Kelly Holcomb - 40% Craig Nall- 20% Craig Ochs- 0% Tory Woodbury- 0%

[JDG]

Nall - 50%, Losman - 30%, Holcomb - 20%

[KOKBILLS]

I'll go with 100% JPL because I'm a dreamer...

 

And dreamers dream...

[taterhill]

NALL BALL

[inkman]

NALL BALL

687004[/snapback]

 

Sounds too much like "Gnaw Ball". I don't know about you but that doesn't conjure up good feelings for me.

[stinky finger]

Nall......y'all

[bluenews]

I voted for Other #s Ithink placed below.

686939[/snapback]

 

I second for Other #s Ithink placed below.

[Beerball]

What do you think are chances 4 starting QB?

 

JP Losman - 40% Kelly Holcomb - 40% Craig Nall- 20% Craig Ochs- 0% Tory Woodbury- 0%

 

Have you combined Ochs and Woodbury? Ochbury? Woodoch?

[Orton's Arm]

Craig Nall has the big arm you need to hit those deep throws in the Fairchild offense. Also, Nall's QB rating is 139.4, while Losman's is just 63.5. Bear in mind a lot of Nall's success came against a very good Chicago defense in a game late in the year. I'm not sure whether the game was at Chicago or Green Bay, but either way it was someplace cold and windy. Of the three players, Nall clearly has the most upside--if he can continue to play at the level he's achieved in his limited playing time. He's also the only QB of the three selected by the current regime. But if Nall isn't what the coaches were hoping for, Holcomb is a very solid plan B.

[stuckincincy]

Craig Nall has the big arm you need to hit those deep throws in the Fairchild offense.  Also, Nall's QB rating is 139.4, while Losman's is just 63.5.  Bear in mind a lot of Nall's success came against a very good Chicago defense in a game late in the year.  I'm not sure whether the game was at Chicago or Green Bay, but either way it was someplace cold and windy.  Of the three players, Nall clearly has the most upside--if he can continue to play at the level he's achieved in his limited playing time.  He's also the only QB of the three selected by the current regime.  But if Nall isn't what the coaches were hoping for, Holcomb is a very solid plan B.

687202[/snapback]

 

Sometimes, an unknown qb - Nall - enters the game, and like an unknown pitcher coming up from the minors, does well. After a while, he gets figured out by the opposition.

 

Given the GB qb situation - the Emperor waffling and preening his feathers, the heir apparent drafted last year, so why didn't they care to hang on to this inexpensive wunderkind?

[JDG]

Given the GB qb situation - the Emperor waffling and preening his feathers, the heir apparent drafted last year, why wouldn't they hang on to this inexpensive wunderkind?

687218[/snapback]

 

Because Nall had no intention of blowing his free agency on accepting a job as a 3rd-String Clipboard holder?

[stuckincincy]

Because Nall had no intention of blowing his free agency on accepting a job as a 3rd-String Clipboard holder?

687219[/snapback]

That's a point I haven't considered.

[cooldudeav]

Craig Nall has the big arm you need to hit those deep throws in the Fairchild offense.  Also, Nall's QB rating is 139.4, while Losman's is just 63.5.  Bear in mind a lot of Nall's success came against a very good Chicago defense in a game late in the year.  I'm not sure whether the game was at Chicago or Green Bay, but either way it was someplace cold and windy.  Of the three players, Nall clearly has the most upside--if he can continue to play at the level he's achieved in his limited playing time.  He's also the only QB of the three selected by the current regime.  But if Nall isn't what the coaches were hoping for, Holcomb is a very solid plan B.

687202[/snapback]

I agree entirely. Ive got Nall at 75 percent. Losman at 18 and Holcomb at 7 percent. Forget the other two.... Wait a minute i feel bad for the two losers i will give them each half a persenct and drop Nall to 74 percent.

[Bill from NYC]

Beginning of season:

 

Holcomb: 50%

 

Losman: 40%

 

Nall: 10%

 

End of season:

 

Losman: 50%

 

Nall: 40%

 

Holcomb: 10%

 

I view the above prediction as good news, in that one of these kids will out-shine a career backup.

[34-78-83]

Craig Nall has the big arm you need to hit those deep throws in the Fairchild offense. 

Like Bulger ??

Also, Nall's QB rating is 139.4, while Losman's is just 63.5.

So we're comparing ratings (a west coast offense statistic to begin with) of a guy in cleanup duty and a guy with 8 starts ever ? Meaningful stuff

Of the three players, Nall clearly has the most upside--if he can continue to play at the level he's achieved in his limited playing time.

Clearly? Based on? Yes Holcomb can be ruled out of the upside dept but....

He's also the only QB of the three selected by the current regime.

I'll give you that.

  But if Nall isn't what the coaches were hoping for, Holcomb is a very solid plan B.

So it's Nall, Holcomb or bust!! JP is just camp fodder?

[Ozymandius]

Nall 50% Losman 45% Holcomb 5%

 

Nall is the new regime's hand-picked QB and therefore the favorite. Losman is close because of his potential. Holcomb probably doesn't stand a chance because we are looking at this year as a rebuilding year, a system implementation year, and that means we are going to choose a "QB of the future" and have him learn on the job.