Mark Gaughan article

[Simon]

D has had five drafts with the Bills, meaning he's had 15 first-day picks. He's used 13% of those picks (2 out of 15) on offensive linemen. Yet 23% of your starters are offensive linemen (5 out of 22).

 

If you're going to go there, then you have to totally disregard FA's and assume that every single starter on the Bills can only come from the draft. Otherwise those numbers are absolutely meaningless.

TD has chosen to bolster the OLine with more proven, reliable and NFL-tested FA's than he has draft picks. If anything, that says to me that he places greater emphasis on finding the right guys on the OLine and and is willing to take greater risks when filling the rest of our needs with unproven draft picks.

[The Dean]

If you're going to go there, then you have to totally disregard FA's and assume that every single starter on the Bills can only come from the draft. Otherwise those numbers are absolutely meaningless.

TD has chosen to bolster the OLine with more proven, reliable and NFL-tested FA's than he has draft picks. If anything, that says to me that he places greater emphasis on finding the right guys on the OLine and and is willing to take greater risks when filling the rest of our needs with unproven draft picks.

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Stop making sense. You know it has NO PLACE here.

[Orton's Arm]

If you're going to go there, then you have to totally disregard FA's and assume that every single starter on the Bills can only come from the draft. Otherwise those numbers are absolutely meaningless.

That's baloney. In his tenure here, TD has neglected the offensive line on the first day of the draft. You're saying he's made up for it via free agent signings. But just as the round a player was selected in shows the level of commitment for draft picks, so too player salaries show the level of commitment for free agent signings. TD's o-line free agent signings have ranged from average to cheap, because nobody else was dumb enough to want most of those guys.

 

TD has chosen to bolster the OLine with more proven, reliable and NFL-tested FA's

He has? Other than Villarrial, who are these proven and reliable free agents? Teague, a guy Denver didn't want? Castoffs like Gandy and Anderson? C'mon man.

If anything, that says to me that he places greater emphasis on finding the right guys on the OLine and and is willing to take greater risks when filling the rest of our needs with unproven draft picks.

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Of the 22 projected starters for this year, 9 came via TD's drafts. In other words, TD has tried to compensate for his draft-day failures by buying a team through free agency. Problem is, a team built in this way will get old very fast. Ours has.

[GG]

That's baloney. In his tenure here, TD has neglected the offensive line on the first day of the draft. You're saying he's made up for it via free agent signings. But just as the round a player was selected in shows the level of commitment for draft picks, so too player salaries show the level of commitment for free agent signings. TD's o-line free agent signings have ranged from average to cheap, because nobody else was dumb enough to want most of those guys.

 

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If you are going to make this accusation, please go over the 5 yr draft history and tell us exactly which OLs Bills should have drafted when their pick was up on the first day. We'll even give you the benefit of 20/20 hindsight to pick & choose the winners.

 

The only one that comes to mind is Steinbach, but then we'd still have VABills' favorite pet rock on the roster.

[34-78-83]

If you are going to make this accusation, please go over the 5 yr draft history and tell us exactly which OLs Bills should have drafted when their pick was up on the first day.  We'll even give you the benefit of 20/20 hindsight to pick & choose the winners.

 

The only one that comes to mind is Steinbach, but then we'd still have VABills' favorite pet rock on the roster.

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Yep.

 

Also remember that there is generally a 3 year learning curve for getting good production from an offensive lineman that is drafted. Hence more of a focus (failed or not) on FA linemen. There are only a few exceptions to this (Big Mike should have been one at pick #4 but wasn't).

[Rico]

If you are going to make this accusation, please go over the 5 yr draft history and tell us exactly which OLs Bills should have drafted when their pick was up on the first day.  We'll even give you the benefit of 20/20 hindsight to pick & choose the winners.

 

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And if you choose to do this little exercise, feel free to give yourself back the 2003 #1 that the Pats fleeced from us with Drew, and the 2004 #2 + 5 and the 2005 #1 that we spent while still reeling from the Drew trade.

[Orton's Arm]

If you are going to make this accusation, please go over the 5 yr draft history and tell us exactly which OLs Bills should have drafted when their pick was up on the first day.  We'll even give you the benefit of 20/20 hindsight to pick & choose the winners.

 

The only one that comes to mind is Steinbach, but then we'd still have VABills' favorite pet rock on the roster.

518007[/snapback]

Over the last five years, other teams have had the same opportunities to build their offensive lines that TD has had. The bottom line is that as of right now, Buffalo's offensive line is the second-worst in the league. Whether other teams found offensive linemen via high draft picks like Levi Jones, or second day picks, or undrafted free agents, doesn't concern me. If TD wants to neglect the offensive line on the first day of the draft, he needs to make up for it with success on the second day, or in free agency. He's done neither.

[GG]

Over the last five years, other teams have had the same opportunities to build their offensive lines that TD has had. The bottom line is that as of right now, Buffalo's offensive line is the second-worst in the league. Whether other teams found offensive linemen via high draft picks like Levi Jones, or second day picks, or undrafted free agents, doesn't concern me. If TD wants to neglect the offensive line on the first day of the draft, he needs to make up for it with success on the second day, or in free agency. He's done neither.

518015[/snapback]

 

Yes, I've seen your rant. No need to repeat it.

 

I asked to see the names of those starting OLs that were taken on the first day of each Bills' draft conducted during TD's era, where the Bills had a chance to grab them.

 

Do the homework...

[Beerball]

Over the last five years, other teams have had the same opportunities to build their offensive lines that TD has had. The bottom line is that as of right now, Buffalo's offensive line is the second-worst in the league. Whether other teams found offensive linemen via high draft picks like Levi Jones, or second day picks, or undrafted free agents, doesn't concern me. If TD wants to neglect the offensive line on the first day of the draft, he needs to make up for it with success on the second day, or in free agency. He's done neither.

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TD sucks. Take two of these and call me in the morning.

 

linky

[Orton's Arm]

Also remember that there is generally a 3 year learning curve for getting good production from an offensive lineman that is drafted. Hence more of a focus (failed or not) on FA linemen. There are only a few exceptions to this (Big Mike should have been one at pick #4 but wasn't).

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There is also a learning curve for free agents to learn your blocking system and develop chemistry with each other. Stability is an important part of building a line. That's why the draft is so important. You're supposed to draft successful players, and have them spend their entire careers with your organization.

 

If you bring in a free agent, one of two things will happen: 1) either he will be good/expensive enough that you'll need to start him right away, despite the chemistry thing, or 2) he'll be bad/cheap enough to let him sit for a year and learn your scheme, in which case he won't have much of an impact.

 

Unless you are fortunate enough to sign a free agent early in his career--as San Francisco was when they signed Jennings--you'll be stuck with a guy who can give you a few good years, after which you'll have to start the whole chemistry thing all over again. This is one of the reasons why good lines are seldom if ever built via free agency.

[Orton's Arm]

Do the homework...

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You're not my teacher.

[34-78-83]

There is also a learning curve for free agents to learn your blocking system and develop chemistry with each other. Stability is an important part of building a line. That's why the draft is so important. You're supposed to draft successful players, and have them spend their entire careers with your organization.

 

If you bring in a free agent, one of two things will happen: 1) either he will be good/expensive enough that you'll need to start him right away, despite the chemistry thing, or 2) he'll be bad/cheap enough to let him sit for a year and learn your scheme, in which case he won't have much of an impact.

 

Unless you are fortunate enough to sign a free agent early in his career--as San Francisco was when they signed Jennings--you'll be stuck with a guy who can give you a few good years, after which you'll have to start the whole chemistry thing all over again. This is one of the reasons why good lines are seldom if ever built via free agency.

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I'll give you the chemistry factor (something I did not think of), but the learning curve for FA's is usually a matter of a couple to a few games as opposed to 3 seasons.

[MRW]

Unless you are fortunate enough to sign a free agent early in his career--as San Francisco was when they signed Jennings--

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Yeah, San Francisco's looking pretty fortunate there.

 

Jennings as a 3rd round pick? Great value. Paying multi-millions for Jennings as a free agent? Not so much.

[Orton's Arm]

Jennings as a 3rd round pick?  Great value.  Paying multi-millions for Jennings as a free agent?  Not so much.

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Yes, they're overpaying for him. But if he can stay healthy, there will be years of continuity at that position.

[Dan Gross]

TD sucks.  Take two of these and call me in the morning.

 

linky

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Goes well with this. I'd suggest a double-dose for Limp Noodle.

[dave mcbride]

The notion that Jammer "fell" was because everyone was sure that the Lions would take him at #3. He filled a huge need for them, and the Lions didn't seem to be in the market for a QB, as they still wanted to see what Mike McMahon had to offer. That didn't necessarily mean that Jammer carried with him a rating of a player worthy of going #3 overall.

 

Indeed, even at the time of the draft, most pundits agreed that this class looked weak. Peppers was the only genuine blue chip prospect, and he went #2 because the expansion Texans wanted to draft their franchise QB right off the bat.

 

It is also a myth that teams were interested in trading up for Harrington. His stock had risen rather quickly and late in the game, but at the end of the college season he was viewed as a late first rounder. The Bills were one team that was NOT interseted in him, as they had concerns about his arm strength in adverse weather conditions. Matt Millen REALLY tried to pimp that #3 pick even moreso that TD did, and he also had trouble finding a suitor.

 

There was no consensus selection when we picked #4. I even recall Chris Berman being at a loss for who the team was going to take -- and he essentially made a guess that it would be an OT, but didn't say which one. We all know that the team has for years told him ahead of time who they were going to take in return for a promise that he'd keep it close to the vest until the final moment. That tells me that TD was not sure who he was taking with that pick either. In fact, he was hoping that a deal would be made to move down. A similar thing happened the following year, when it was actually Mort who reported the possibility of our drafting Willis. That was clearly news to Berman at the time.

 

Recall also that MW wasn't even the consensus pick at the time within the organization. There were reports that Gregg REALLY wanted Roy Williams to the point where he was affectionately referring to him as his son, since they shared the same surname. (Does anyone ever remember the same references to Big Mike?)

 

As I've said before, there is enough stuff for which to blame TD, where I wouldn't necessarily point the finger at him for the Mike Williams bust. I find it funny that many of the same people that want to villify TD for not paying enough attention to our OL, are the same ones that are so upset about the MW pick. Imagine how much better off our OL would be now if MW had turned out to be the perrenial All Pro RT that he was projected to be!

 

We were picking in a bad spot, where there wasn't much in the way of value. Hind-sight is always 20-20, but we would have been much better off with John Henderson, Roy Williams, or Dwight Freeney. Henderson came with injury concerns -- and the other guys would have been considered reaches. The Colts were mocked for taking Freeney about 7-10 spots too soon. And the Cowboys actually traded down a couple spots to get RW.

 

Maybe the lesson to be learned here is screw "draft value". Identify the guys you want at a specific position that you think will best fit your team and take them before you think someone else will. That's what Dungy did with Freeney -- and it's what the Pats have been doing for years.

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the best offensive tackle in that draft came just a few picks after the bills pick, and his name isn't bryant mckinnie. levi jones went 10th overall, much to the chagrin of mel kiper et al. the bengals were very high on him, and they turned out to be right.

[JDG]

Yes, I've seen your rant.  No need to repeat it. 

 

I asked to see the names of those starting OLs that were taken on the first day of each Bills' draft conducted during TD's era, where the Bills had a chance to grab them.

 

Do the homework...

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Since Holcomb's Arm has begged off, allow me to step in with an analysis of 1st-day OL picks for 2002-2004.

 

2002 - Williams and McKinney. The Mel Kiper-maligned Levi Jones was a huge hit for Cincy in the first, while the 1st was rounded out by Marc Colombo - a huge bust for the Bears. In the second, I think Mike Pearson has had injury problems in Jacksonville, and Langston Walker is only just now starting for the Raiders this season - and at guard at that. Jeff Hatch in the 3rd was a complete bust.

 

Four first-day centers. LeCharles Bentley in the 2nd is a hit, as is Seth McKinney in the 3rd. McKinney was taken behind Fred Weary and Marvin Fowler, the former who doesn't even play on the Texans(!), and the latter who is a utility-backup lineman nowadays.

 

For guards, Kendall Simmons was a big hit in the first, Gurode and Fonoti have fizzled out from promsing starts in the 2nd, while Pitts became the Texans starting Tackle. Terrance Metcalf is finally starting this year for the Bears.

 

2003 - Two Tackles are taken before the Bills pick, Jordan Gross and George Foster (Denver), both of whom are starters. Of the remaining five first-day Tackles, only San Francisco's first-rounder, Kwame Harris is starting.

 

Only 3 first-day centers this year. Jeff Faine and Al Johnson are hits for Cleveland and Dallas in the 1st and 2nd, while Bruce Nelson, the 18th pick in the 2nd round, appears to be out of football already.

 

After Steinbach, there were four guards in the 3rd - two hits and two busts.

 

2004 - Five first-day tackles, including Robert Gallery and the Eagles' Shaun Andrews, who has since been moved to Guard in the 1st Round. The one second-rounder, Jacob Rogers, isn't even playing for Dallas, while Max Starks and Travelle Wharton are starting for Pitt and Carolina from the 3rd.

 

Two first-day centers, 2nd rounder Jake Grove starts for Oakland when healthy, and 3rd rounder Nick Hardwick is a starter in San Diego.

 

Five first day guards, all but one is starting - including Vernon Carey and Sean Locklear at Tackle for Miami and Seattle.

 

So, replay draft:

 

2002 - replace Ryan Denny with Seth McKinney

2004 - replace Tim Anderson with Sean Locklear

 

JDG

[Simon]

TD has chosen to bolster the OLine with more proven, reliable and NFL-tested FA's.........................

 

He has? Other than Villarrial, who are these proven and reliable free agents?

I should have been more clear and said he has chosen to bolster the line with guys he considered to be more proven, reliable and NFL-tested FA's.

Maybe we don't care much for how those guys have worked out, but TD has attempted to improve this line by acquiring players in FA like Vilarial, Teague, Gandy, Anderson, Campbell and Price. And all of those guys were a bigger financial investment than most our rookie draft choices.

 

 

Of the 22 projected starters for this year, 9 came via TD's drafts. In other words, TD has tried to compensate for his draft-day failures by buying a team through free agency.

 

Well, that's certainly one way to spin it.

Another way would be to say that TD has tried to create a good mix of youth and experience by utilizing both the draft and FA to build a contender; and that he has shown a propensity toward favoritism of his OLine unit by stocking it with guys who are generally higher paid and more NFL proven than untested draft picks; except of course when he used the highest draft pick of his career on an OLineman.

[GG]

Since Holcomb's Arm has begged off, allow me to step in with an analysis of 1st-day OL picks for 2002-2004.

...

 

So, replay draft:

 

2002 - replace Ryan Denny with Sean McKinney

2004 - replace Tim Anderson with Sean Locklear

 

JDG

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I (and NJ Sue) thank you for doing HA's homework.

[Orton's Arm]

The only one that comes to mind is Steinbach,

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Well, I'll just have to give you some more names then, won't I? How about Matt Light, the LT the Patriots drafted in the second round of 2001 (48th overall). Or Nick Hardwick, whom the Chargers chose with their 3rd round pick in 2004 (66th overall) and who is now starting at center. There's George Foster, drafted in the first round of 2003 by Denver (20th overall) who is now the Broncos' starting RT. The Bengals obtained the left side of their excellent o-line via first day picks from 2001 - 2004. Steinbach, the LG, was taken in the second round of 2003 (33rd overall), and LT Levi Jones was taken in the first round of 2002 (10th overall). The Seahawks are another team that's finding success due in part to an excellent offensive line. Their LG Steve Hutchinson came in 2001's first round (17th overall). Their starting RT, Sean Locklear, came in the 3rd round of the 2004 draft (84th overall). Pittsburgh is another team with a very strong offensive line; the right side of which was drafted on the first day, between 2001 - 2004. Kendall Simmons, right OG, came in the first round of the 2002 draft (30th overall). Max Starks, the starting RT, came in the 3rd round of the 2004 draft (75th overall). The Bills chose Tim Anderson one pick earlier.

 

All this is just from looking at just a few teams with successful offensive lines, and only at what they've done with their first-day picks from 2001 - 2004.