Bills don't "need" a WR, they need to use the ones they have better

[vtnatefootball11]

27 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

I guess the Bills see his value in the versatility it gives their offense to do anything they want. With 1 TE on the field they are 8th in passing efficiency, with 2 TE's they are 3rd and with 3 TE's they are 1st.

 

A large part of our success is having 3 TE's that have dual capabilities so that even in run heavy formations we can actually come out and be successful passing because we have created mismatches with the defense having to bring in bigger, slower, less athletic players to stop the run.

 

Now, I am not saying that to defend his contract, it's still absurd, but at least that gets to why they are OK with it right now.

 

Also, is it not strange that the Bills existed for so long without even a single good TE on the roster and now they have 3 of them?

 

Agree, very strange to be this rich at TE! And I don't hate the idea of leaning into the multiple TE looks even further. Just wish we had a Moulds to go with them (or heck, even a Lee Evans or Stevie Johnson would be perfect! ). 

 

[Big Turk]

4 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Kincaid missed the Atlanta game, and barely played in carolina (14 snaps) since that was just the james cook show.  Last week he played only 23 snaps and was outsnapped by knox and hawes, but also by samuel and shavers - and still managed 6 catches and 101 yards.  So in the last 4 weeks including the bye he's only played 37 snaps and has 7 catches for 124 yards and a TD.  

 

Wondering if they are doing a bit of load management with him and planning to unleash him fully down the stretch and into the playoffs?

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

6 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Wondering if they are doing a bit of load management with him and planning to unleash him fully down the stretch and into the playoffs?

 

Knee injury last year, oblique injury this year both probably factor into it.  

[Billy Claude]

5 hours ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Jeudy is currently rocking a 40.7% catch rate with cleveland this year.  QB does matter when it comes to catch %.  

 

Team Comp% where Moore has played in his career:

 

Jets 2021 - 59.2% - 29th in the league

Jets 2022 - 56.9% - 32nd in the league

Browns 2023 - 56.9% - 32nd in the league

Browns 2024 - 59.8%- 31st in the league

 

Now having said all that - and having seen him play - I'm not a big fan.  Him and Samuel are the only guys bringing vertical speed to the equation at the moment though, so at some point they may need to ramp up his snaps a bit - especially with Samuel being notoriously unavailable.  

 

However, except for 2023 his catch rate was significantly lower than team average.   As an apple to apples comparison, Jeudy (obviously a much better WR) had a catch rate of 63% last year while averaging 13 yards per catch versus Moore's 8.8.   If you are only getting 8.8 yards per reception your catch rate should be almost RB level.

 

I question why  people feel that Brady should call some deep shots for Elijah Moore when Moore has no history of any success doing that.  The guy has 9 receiving TDs in 4.5 years,  more than half of which occurred in a 6 week period at the end of his rookie season.

 

 

 

 

Edited 9 hours ago by Billy Claude

[GerstAusGosheim]

On 11/6/2025 at 1:36 PM, BillsVet said:

This is the offense McD wants

 

100%. Sean hated the high flying O from 2020-21 that fans loved and made the Bills so exciting to watch. Couldn't wait to get rid of Daboll and Diggs.

 

Beane drafts, and Brady coaches, to execute Sean's "complimentary football" philosophy. For now, it's working. We'll see. But if we face a team in the playoffs that can stop the run, it's over. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

On 11/6/2025 at 12:14 PM, NoSaint said:

I think two things can be true- they need better receivers but haven’t fully optimized what they have 

I think it's a Brady issue. He's so committed to the short passing game. And the reads in his offense go from short to long. I also think being so anti risk and anti turnover has rewired Allen's train of thought too. 

On 11/6/2025 at 12:53 PM, wjag said:

The Bills don't have a deep threat, because they don't want one.  That's my opinion.  Their game has evolved to running the ball and quick hits, high percentage passes.  They want to play a ball control, clock eating game.  Deep throws risk turnovers.  I hope they bring throws to RBs back in to the office.  Can't figure out why they have abandoned them.

Exactly this. 

 

Question. When was the last time Brandon Beane drafter a WR with too end speed? Even a late dart throw? Now what WRs has he taken? Coleman, Shorter, Shavers....heck he was Assistant GM in Carolina when they had Benjamin and Funchess. 

On 11/6/2025 at 1:04 PM, Magox said:

 

I think this is largely true but I would quibble that it isn't so much that Brady isn't adept to it but more so that the approach is a high percentage ball control offense.

 

Honestly, I don't believe Allen has the trust in the receivers to look their way as often as he could.  You only have so many seconds to make a decision back there on where you want to distribute the ball and clearly the receivers are not typically his first or second looks.  But there have been quite a few occasions I've seen this year where Wide receivers were open and he just didn't get it there.   I'm not blaming him, no QB sees everything, its just that his confidence level is not there to make them one of his early reads in some of those spots.

 

I think little by little he has to have certain plays that he feels comfortable with to look to get the ball out to those receivers.   

You say trust and I agree, but trust comes through reps. 

 

Seems year after year we sign a few random WRs to 1 year deals. They leave and we restock with new. Allen was at his best as a passer when he had a few guys he was familiar with to throw to. Diggs, Davis. Even wanted Brown and Beasley brought back one year because he was familiar with and trusted them. They need to commit to guys at the position and not have a revolving door. Timing and trust matter.

[Pete]

21 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I think it's a Brady issue. He's so committed to the short passing game. And the reads in his offense go from short to long. I also think being so anti risk and anti turnover has rewired Allen's train of thought too. 

Exactly this. 

 

Question. When was the last time Brandon Beane drafter a WR with too end speed? Even a late dart throw? Now what WRs has he taken? Coleman, Shorter, Shavers....heck he was Assistant GM in Carolina when they had Benjamin and Funchess. 

You say trust and I agree, but trust comes through reps. 

 

Seems year after year we sign a few random WRs to 1 year deals. They leave and we restock with new. Allen was at his best as a passer when he had a few guys he was familiar with to throw to. Diggs, Davis. Even wanted Brown and Beasley brought back one year because he was familiar with and trusted them. They need to commit to guys at the position and not have a revolving door. Timing and trust matter.

🤮 I would trade all of those WR for Steve Smith

Edited 8 hours ago by Pete

[harmonkillebrew]

Kincaid and Shakir are the Bills passing Offense, but smart Defenses will plan around that. We can't sit pat with mediocre boundary WRs. 

Palmer has more potential to contribute, once healthy. Coleman is a dud. Samuel still has some deep speed, but inconsistent route running. 

Gabe might bring back that downfield threat, but not off a torn meniscus. 

 

The O is good, but we need playoff good. And not having a downfield element threat will hold us back

[Rockinon]

57 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I think it's a Brady issue. He's so committed to the short passing game. And the reads in his offense go from short to long. I also think being so anti risk and anti turnover has rewired Allen's train of thought too. 

I don't believe this to be the case, really. There have been some deep shots. Most are going to TEs, though. Just watched a video breakdown by PFF, found in another thread. The Bills are using the TEs to make defenses think it's an obvious running play but instead it's a pass. Often a deep ball and it's been very successful.

[BuffaloBillyG]

5 minutes ago, Rockinon said:

I don't believe this to be the case, really. There have been some deep shots. Most are going to TEs, though. Just watched a video breakdown by PFF, found in another thread. The Bills are using the TEs to make defenses think it's an obvious running play but instead it's a pass. Often a deep ball and it's been very successful.

Ok. When you talk PFF, understand that they clarify a "deep ball" much different than what most fans are talking about. When your PFFs talk deep ball they are talking about any pass that is thrown over 20 yards to include deep outs, crossers ECT. When fans refer to a deep ball most of the time it's a go route, 40+ air yards ECT.

[DaVinci]

Well it didnt work the last 2 playoff games against KC. May be they will play better this year.

[Big Turk]

2 hours ago, GerstAusGosheim said:

 

100%. Sean hated the high flying O from 2020-21 that fans loved and made the Bills so exciting to watch. Couldn't wait to get rid of Daboll and Diggs.

 

Beane drafts, and Brady coaches, to execute Sean's "complimentary football" philosophy. For now, it's working. We'll see. But if we face a team in the playoffs that can stop the run, it's over. 

 

I mean I am equally excited to watch this team move the ball with ruthless efficiency and just pile up points.  I don't care how they do it, just do it.

2 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I think it's a Brady issue. He's so committed to the short passing game. And the reads in his offense go from short to long. I also think being so anti risk and anti turnover has rewired Allen's train of thought too. 

Exactly this. 

 

Question. When was the last time Brandon Beane drafter a WR with too end speed? Even a late dart throw? Now what WRs has he taken? Coleman, Shorter, Shavers....heck he was Assistant GM in Carolina when they had Benjamin and Funchess. 

You say trust and I agree, but trust comes through reps. 

 

Seems year after year we sign a few random WRs to 1 year deals. They leave and we restock with new. Allen was at his best as a passer when he had a few guys he was familiar with to throw to. Diggs, Davis. Even wanted Brown and Beasley brought back one year because he was familiar with and trusted them. They need to commit to guys at the position and not have a revolving door. Timing and trust matter.

 

I mean, Allen seems to be at his best now when we can comfortably sit back and watch him pick apart defenses and have almost zero concern about a turnover happening.

 

And score more points than any of those teams ever did.

Edited 7 hours ago by Big Turk

[Scott7975]

On 11/6/2025 at 3:59 PM, Big Turk said:

 

Huh? Can you please stop making things up?  Saying what you believe to be true is cool, but not when it is completely contradictory to facts...then it's just silliness.

 

 

you can make stats say anything you want. Over the last 3 games the Bills move down to 13th. That list is probably heavily skewed overall because of the comeback game week 1. 

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

On 11/6/2025 at 12:42 PM, Big Turk said:

 

Palmer was starting to come on in that Falcons game and then got hurt...excited to see if that continues once he is back.

I find this thought perplexing … he caught A pass.  Not sure how people equate that with “Palmer is coming on”. He’s basically what he’s always been: a JAG with limited upside. 

[Thurman#1]

8 hours ago, Billy Claude said:

 

However, except for 2023 his catch rate was significantly lower than team average.   As an apple to apples comparison, Jeudy (obviously a much better WR) had a catch rate of 63% last year while averaging 13 yards per catch versus Moore's 8.8.   If you are only getting 8.8 yards per reception your catch rate should be almost RB level.

 

I question why  people feel that Brady should call some deep shots for Elijah Moore when Moore has no history of any success doing that.  The guy has 9 receiving TDs in 4.5 years,  more than half of which occurred in a 6 week period at the end of his rookie season.

 

 

 

 

Jeudy's catch rate last year was 62.1% while Moore's was 59.8%. That difference on the number of catches Moore had is statistically insignificant. It's basically a two-catch difference over the course of a season.

 

Same for the team catch percentage, which was 62.3%, again not significant. And that includes all team receptions, including RBs and TEs, who generally catch at higher rates because they're getting easier passes. Looking at WRs only, Moore was 2nd highest on the team among WRs with more than three targets. Moore's longest catch that year was 44 yards, and only Jeudy had a longer one among all pass catchers on that team.

 

In 2023 the team catch percentage for all positions was 59.5% while Moore's was 56.7%, and he had the 2nd highest catch % on the team that year, second to David Bell at 60.9% on 14 catches, though Amari Cooper was at 56.3% and he was targeted with much longer Y/A than was Moore. Moore's longest was 42 yards.

 

This is his fifth year and his longest catch each year was 62, 42, 42, 44 and this year 31 so far. He's been targeted long before, with some success as the consistency of long plays shows.

 

In his second year, with the Jets, catching passes from Zach Wilson, Flacco and Mike White he had the highest catch % among WRs with ten catches or more, ahead of rookie Garrett Wilson by less than 1%.

 

 

As a rookie, Crowder and Berrios were way ahead of everyone else in catch %, while the rest of those with ten catches or more were all within 3% of each other.

 

Here's his rookie highlights. If I've counted correctly there are 7 plays of 20 yards or more, including 5 with more than 20 air yards.

 

 

Here's last year from Cleveland. Four plays over 20, including two with over 20 air yards, including a beautiful long TD caught deep in the corner of the end zone that went about 35 yards in the air.

 

You don't see him doing pure bombs. But he does do long routes. Effectively.

 

Ick. You made me look at Cleveland and Jets numbers.

 

 

 

 

Edited 2 hours ago by Thurman#1

[Big Turk]

3 hours ago, AlCowlingsTaxiService said:

I find this thought perplexing … he caught A pass.  Not sure how people equate that with “Palmer is coming on”. He’s basically what he’s always been: a JAG with limited upside. 

 

He caught 2. The first was a play-action bomb down field on the first play for the Bills for like 40 yards and the second was a deep over for 20 yards. That was the play he got hurt on early 2nd quarter. If he stayed healthy likely would have had a 100+ yard game.

 

I always liked Palmer in San Diego and he was often targeted deep and often was wide open.

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Jeudy's catch rate last year was 62.1% while Moore's was 59.8%. That difference on the number of catches Moore had is statistically insignificant. It's basically a two-catch difference over the course of a season.

 

Same for the team catch percentage, which was 62.3%, again not significant. And that includes all team receptions, including RBs and TEs, who generally catch at higher rates because they're getting easier passes. Looking at WRs only, Moore was 2nd highest on the team among WRs with more than three targets. Moore's longest catch that year was 44 yards, and only Jeudy had a longer one among all pass catchers on that team.

 

In 2023 the team catch percentage for all positions was 59.5% while Moore's was 56.7%, and he had the 2nd highest catch % on the team that year, second to David Bell at 60.9% on 14 catches, though Amari Cooper was at 56.3% and he was targeted with much longer Y/A than was Moore. Moore's longest was 42 yards.

 

This is his fifth year and his longest catch each year was 62, 42, 42, 44 and this year 31 so far. He's been targeted long before, with some success as the consistency of long plays shows.

 

In his second year, with the Jets, catching passes from Zach Wilson, Flacco and Mike White he had the highest catch % among WRs with ten catches or more, ahead of rookie Garrett Wilson by less than 1%.

 

As a rookie, Crowder and Berrios were way ahead of everyone else in catch %, while the rest of those with ten catches or more were all within 3% of each other.

 

Ick. You made me look at Cleveland and Jets numbers.

 

 

 

 

 

I don't need him running 40 yards down field, I just think the Bills should target him right in the 20-25 yard range more often like the ball he caught in the Chiefs game.

 

He was wide open there again on one of Allen's short incompletions to Hawes earlier in the game.

 

I have a feeling if we go back and look he likely has been open a bunch of times on those plays over the season.

Edited 2 hours ago by Big Turk

[Big Turk]

4 hours ago, DaVinci said:

Well it didnt work the last 2 playoff games against KC. May be they will play better this year.

 

I mean they average more points against KC in the playoffs than during the regular season. The issue as always is the D allows an average of 14 more points to KC in the playoffs.

 

There is no way there should be that consistently large of a difference ove this many games between the two.

 

It's inexplicable.

Edited 2 hours ago by Big Turk

[Thurman#1]

5 hours ago, GerstAusGosheim said:

 

100%. Sean hated the high flying O from 2020-21 that fans loved and made the Bills so exciting to watch. Couldn't wait to get rid of Daboll and Diggs.

 

Beane drafts, and Brady coaches, to execute Sean's "complimentary football" philosophy. For now, it's working. We'll see. But if we face a team in the playoffs that can stop the run, it's over. 

 

 

They were going to keep Diggs until he forced his way out. 

 

Sean didn't like the INTs and turnovers, but he is not and was not stupid. He loved the high numbers and explosive plays.

[Big Turk]

8 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

They were going to keep Diggs until he forced his way out. 

 

Sean didn't like the INTs and turnovers, but he is not and was not stupid. He loved the high numbers and explosive plays.

 

And he still does since the Bills lead the NFL in explosive plays this year.

[Thurman#1]

28 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

I mean they average more points against KC in the playoffs than during the regular season. The issue as always is the D allows an average of 14 more points to KC in the playoffs.

 

There is no way there should be that consistently large of a difference ove this many games between the two.

 

It's inexplicable.

 

 

Yup. Mind you, it was very clear that Allen looked awful the first two or three playoff drives at KC last year. But he came alive and the offense was damn good the rest of the way.

 

The problem was the defense. The D was pretty healthy most of the season but right at the end they had a ton of health issues and they were just not the same last year in the playoff game at KC without the injured group.

Edited 2 hours ago by Thurman#1