Are McBeane secretly creating an elite offense?

[DapperCam]

56 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Is that a thing that's done by anyone consistently? Does it correlate to winning games?

Whenever I've looked at pass distribution charts, deep throws to boundary WRs haven't been high-frequency areas. It's mostly where you take shots when you get 1-1 matchups, where you have broken plays, or if you have an unbelievable talent outside you may go for a couple shots there. 

These are all 5+ year old examples but everyone of them states you make your hay within 10 yards of the LOS and int he middle of the field. Once you get more than 10 yards down the field on the outside, success plummets. Is this a particular weakness of the Bills or is it a feature of the game? I can't even find any data to tell us how we're performing on the boundary compared to the rest of the league.

https://operations.nfl.com/gameday/analytics/stats-articles/where-s-the-best-spot-on-the-field-to-complete-passes-and-not-get-picked-off/
https://medium.com/the-sports-scientist/evaluating-quarterback-efficiency-using-heatmap-plots-9e9a5b6342cd
https://opensourcefootball.com/posts/2020-08-22-nfl-pass-location-visualization/

I don't think we necessarily need a high volume of "deep" passes to boundary WRs. But we have almost no passes to boundary WRs that aren't within 5 yards of the LOS, and when we do throw 10+ yards to a boundary WR during any time this season that wasn't the 4th quarter of the Ravens game we've had little success.

It's a problem, because it allows defensive coordinators to clog up the middle and stop the run and basically dare you to throw to the outside. The Texans did this masterfully last season. The Bills answer to this has been to have long 10+ play drives with many first downs in order to score a TD. That gives almost no margin for error, and a single negative play or penalty kills the drive. Being a well rounded team is important so a good DC can't just take away what you are good at.

[GoBills808]

3 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

People HATE this offense now and it’s understandable because it seems somewhat backwards when you have Josh Allen as your QB. The logical thing would be to maximize possessions. But I think during the inevitable KC playoff game, McDermott isn’t going to try and out-offense them this time (definition of insanity, right?) I think the Bills are going to try something new and keep the ball out of Mahomes hands via James Cook. Maybe we will get a glimpse of that during this game. 

Actually the one time we did try to out-offense the Chiefs we had the game won in 2021

 

Last couple times we've played them in postseason we've tried ball control and they just grind us down

[Mikey152]

21 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

I don't think it's a surprise. I mentioned that rather explicitly.

A couple of you guys are getting distracted about this whole "you HAVE to be able to throw the ball" point. Well, If you read my post, I've got great news for you. Not only CAN we pass the ball, but it would appear we're one of the best teams int he league at it right now. Sleep easy. 

Are you intentionally ignoring the data that says this isn't true?

This is why it is better to not engage…

 

They have no problem using variance in those same numbers to show how much Cooper impacted the Bills, despite his super low snap count and production.

 

numbers, eye test…it’s whatever supports their emotions at the time.

[BullBuchanan]

2 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Actually the one time we did try to out-offense the Chiefs we had the game won in 2021

 

Last couple times we've played them in postseason we've tried ball control and they just grind us down

Our situational defense has been drastically inferior to theirs. We definitely won't reverse that this year, but maybe we can close the gap?

[Donuts and Doritos]

 

[Mikie2times]

5 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

I guess the point is that some people on the internet think the Bills have "passing woes".

I don't. The data doesn't. Internet people do. 

"Eye tests" are about the least reliable way to measure anything. 100 people have 200 eyes and all of them lie.

This is a great argument, similar to one we heard in the offseason about how we didn't need to add any weapons to the greatest offense in franchise history. What's  funny is the video you posted should clearly explain what the pitfalls of this offense are. The entire video is about the necessity for balance to maximize output. How do you think a defense responds to a team that won't throw the ball more than 5 yards downfield? The entire defense starts to condense making all other possible outcomes less successful. What happens in high leverage situations like the last drive of a divisional playoff game where we have to pass in a traditional way and can't be dependent on screens and Cook? Guys can't get open.

 

Beane already sold the snake oil. We don't need anymore.  

[BullBuchanan]

10 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

This is a great argument, similar to one we heard in the offseason about how we didn't need to add any weapons to the greatest offense in franchise history. What's  funny is the video you posted should clearly explain what the pitfalls of this offense are. The entire video is about the necessity for balance to maximize output. How do you think a defense responds to a team that won't throw the ball more than 5 yards downfield? The entire defense starts to condense making all other possible outcomes less successful. What happens in high leverage situations like the last drive of a divisional playoff game where we have to pass in a traditional way and can't be dependent on screens and Cook? Guys can't get open.

 

Beane already sold the snake oil. We don't need anymore.  

And the data shows we have balance.

What you're suggesting is a hypothetical future in which we don't have balance. That scenario does not exist. If opposing defenses want to stack the box against Josh Allen, it will likely result in some of the most hilarious outcomes in the history of professional football.

You do realize we still have Josh Allen, right? Just because they aren't asking him to be Daunte Culpepper dropping bombs to Randy Moss all day, doesn't mean he lacks the ability to exploit a one-dimensional defense.

I'd recommend worrying about things that are actual issues, like the state of our RB room, or our defensive playmakers, rather than something that will almost certainly never happen.

Edited 5 hours ago by BullBuchanan

[GoBills808]

19 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Our situational defense has been drastically inferior to theirs. We definitely won't reverse that this year, but maybe we can close the gap?

i mean that seems to be the plan

 

I don't have a lot of confidence in it working. trying to play ultra conservative small ball offense puts a premium on winning on the margins (fewer posessions mean points/play -/drive become more important, maximizing efficiency of timeouts and playcalls, clock management, coherence of offense+defense in gameplan and down/distance situations, etc)...that all requires a very steady hand at the wheel. and that's just never been our strong suit

 

leaning into this ball control style exerts more pressure where we're weakest imo. it's a philosophical mismatch. trying to shorten games and playing for par just puts the whole team into a box...we need the kind of offense that can put pressure on opposing teams' offenses because they can't afford to waste a possession, not the kind of offense that wants to trade TOP for more series/game. in trying to stick to 'complementary football' they've somehow managed to design a team that addresses flaws instead of enhances strengths. i just don't think it makes sense

[Chaos]

7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I don't have a lot of confidence in it working. trying to play ultra conservative small ball offense puts a premium on winning on the margins (fewer posessions mean points/play -/drive become more important, maximizing efficiency of timeouts and playcalls, clock management, coherence of offense+defense in gameplan and down/distance situations, etc)...that all requires a very steady hand at the wheel. and that's just never been our strong suit

I would feel better if every game was a track meet, and we tried to make the other team try to keep up with Allen 

[Mikie2times]

10 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

And the data shows we have balance.

What you're suggesting is a hypothetical future in which we don't have balance. That scenario does not exist. If opposing defenses want to stack the box against Josh Allen, it will likely result in some of the most hilarious outcomes in the history of professional football.

You do realize we still have Josh Allen, right? Just because they aren't asking him to be Daunte Culpepper dropping bombs to Randy Moss all day, doesn't mean he lacks the ability to exploit a one-dimensional defense.

I'd recommend worrying about things that are actual issues, like the state of our RB room, or our defensive playmakers, rather than something that will almost certainly never happen.

Let me know how balanced we look when either the run game is taken away or we need to pass. Your preview is Atlanta and New England, maybe the divisional round the last two years.  

 

Football is situational. The formula that you say is efficient is only efficient with a lead and when we can run. It could be made even more efficient, as it was to some extent last year, with some type of downfield passing threat to keep the box clean. Even if our condensed passing game is efficient, it isn't functional or practical in other situations. Situations that the best teams in the NFL have to excel in to be considered to be the best teams in the NFL. This team has been top 5 in DVOA since 2020. It puts up stats, but fails in having enough ways to win when the defense is rarely one of them. Allen alone, Cook, and a usually hobbled Kincaid are not going to give us a championship team. Again, Beane thinking, why we are here, why we keep doing this year after year.   

[BullBuchanan]

14 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

Let me know how balanced we look when either the run game is taken away or we need to pass. Your preview is Atlanta and New England, maybe the divisional round the last two years.  

 

Football is situational. The formula that you say is efficient is only efficient with a lead and when we can run. It could be made even more efficient, as it was to some extent last year, with some type of downfield passing threat to keep the box clean. Even if our condensed passing game is efficient, it isn't functional or practical in other situations. Situations that the best teams in the NFL have to excel in to be considered to be the best teams in the NFL. This team has been top 5 in DVOA since 2020. It puts up stats, but fails in having enough ways to win when the defense is rarely one of them. Allen alone, Cook, and a usually hobbled Kincaid are not going to give us a championship team. Again, Beane thinking, why we are here, why we keep doing this year after year.   

How do you figure it's only efficient with a lead? Did you even watch the video?

We've made deep runs plenty of times now and we've fallen short for the same reason every year, namely our defense wasn't up to the task (especially in 2021), and we didn't execute the couple plays a game where we needed to on offense (2023,2024). I think if we had an elite defense, which they tried to build by getting Von Miller, then we'd see them just keep airing it out like they used to. In absence of that, it's come down on Josh's shoulders needing him to be perfect, which he was until he wasn't on the final plays of 2023 and 2024.

The scheme they are running now, takes that pressure off of him, because now Cook can carry an equal or even outsized share of the load. A use of 2 and 3 tight end sets with 3 TEs capable of being dangerous int eh passing game, allow sus to take advantage of anyone that decides they want to try to shut down the run game. You stack the box, they go over the top to Knox, Hawes and Kincaid. You bring in lighter personnel to defend that? Cook buries you on the ground.

23 minutes ago, Chaos said:

I would feel better if every game was a track meet, and we tried to make the other team try to keep up with Allen 

We tried that for years, and it always failed in January. Should we keep doing it until Allen retires?

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

i mean that seems to be the plan

 

I don't have a lot of confidence in it working. trying to play ultra conservative small ball offense puts a premium on winning on the margins (fewer posessions mean points/play -/drive become more important, maximizing efficiency of timeouts and playcalls, clock management, coherence of offense+defense in gameplan and down/distance situations, etc)...that all requires a very steady hand at the wheel. and that's just never been our strong suit

 

leaning into this ball control style exerts more pressure where we're weakest imo. it's a philosophical mismatch. trying to shorten games and playing for par just puts the whole team into a box...we need the kind of offense that can put pressure on opposing teams' offenses because they can't afford to waste a possession, not the kind of offense that wants to trade TOP for more series/game. in trying to stick to 'complementary football' they've somehow managed to design a team that addresses flaws instead of enhances strengths. i just don't think it makes sense

I don’t get the negative spin being put on running games in some of these comments tbh…everyone makin it sound like we’re just trying to run out the clock lol. This team has absolute beef to pound the run and we want to do it less? It’ll never make sense to me.  The running game is just as capable of hitting big plays as the passing game especially if teams start loading the box which takes second level defenders away.  Nothing puts more pressure on an opposing defense than a good running game 

 

like yea obviously we miscalculated at wr, you want guys that can actually do things in the passing game on top of run blocking lol but the general hate for running the ball I see on here is pretty shocking. It really is a big part of keeping that chiefs defense on their toes.  They probably have the best pass defense in the league with a coordinator that’s sending all kinds of crazy blitzes 

[Mikie2times]

1 minute ago, BullBuchanan said:

How do you figure it's only efficient with a lead? Did you even watch the video?

We've made deep runs plenty of times now and we've fallen short for the same reason every year, namely our defense wasn't up to the task (especially in 2021), and we didn't execute the couple plays a game where we needed to on offense (2023,2024). I think if we had an elite defense, which they tried to build by getting Von Miller, then we'd see them just keep airing it out like they used to. In absence of that, it's come down on Josh's shoulders needing him to be perfect, which he was until he wasn't on the final plays of 2023 and 2024.

The scheme they are running now, takes that pressure off of him, because now Cook can carry an equal or even outsized share of the load. A use of 2 and 3 tight end sets with 3 TEs capable of being dangerous int eh passing game, allow sus to take advantage of anyone that decides they want to try to shut down the run game. You stack the box, they go over the top to Knox, Hawes and Kincaid. You bring in lighter personnel to defend that? Cook buries you on the ground.

I watched the video, it's a great video. Just as coordinators call a run defense or pass defense, they scheme that defense to defend concepts. Without a downfield passing game it allows teams to take out what we do well. Which you don't see in the aggregate, but you see situationally and against certain teams. You will see it more as competition rises. At times the downfield passing game will be absolutely required and not having it hurts our chances for success. 

 

I don't mind that we play small ball at times, I would also like a great defense. That doesn't mean we can afford to just not develop one of the most critical positions in a modern day offense. Then design scheme to try and minimize those impacts. It makes us worse no matter what style we choose to play. Again, situationally, it becomes obvious.  

[Donuts and Doritos]

We're 15th in passing yards per game.

 

That's not "Elite" it's in the middle of 32 teams which is average.

 

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Passing Yards per Game | TeamRankings.com https://share.google/suDRiZc3evnT25wY6

 

[GoBills808]

28 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I don’t get the negative spin being put on running games in some of these comments tbh…everyone makin it sound like we’re just trying to run out the clock lol. This team has absolute beef to pound the run and we want to do it less? It’ll never make sense to me.  The running game is just as capable of hitting big plays as the passing game especially if teams start loading the box which takes second level defenders away.  Nothing puts more pressure on an opposing defense than a good running game 

 

like yea obviously we miscalculated at wr, you want guys that can actually do things in the passing game on top of run blocking lol but the general hate for running the ball I see on here is pretty shocking. It really is a big part of keeping that chiefs defense on their toes.  They probably have the best pass defense in the league with a coordinator that’s sending all kinds of crazy blitzes 

please

 

nobody hates running the ball well...what i do hate is the kind of 1985 'nothing puts more pressure on an opposing defense than a good running game' type thinking

 

we are ABSOLUTELY trying to run out the clock. that is literally the whole point of running the ball at the highest rate in the NFL. and what that produces is fewer possessions, the majority of which are inordinately run heavy (which is not in fact as capable of 'hitting big plays' as passing the ball has always been +ev compared to rushing on average, not even taking into account a QB who accumulates EPA and TDs at an historic rate) 

 

the concept that a james cook run puts more pressure on a defense than a josh allen pass is both historically and practically ridiculous

[Rockinon]

The Bills are #3 in yds/game and #4 in pts/game so far. That looks pretty elite to me. Some more consistency from the pass game and the Bills could very well be #1 by the end of the season. I think it's important to look at these stats because it really shows how much the pass game needs to improve, which really isn't that much. One or two more completed passes per game could very well make this offense number one. This could just be a matter of cleaning up some mistakes. 

 

My biggest issue with this team doesn't have anything to do with offense, though. I think the biggest weaknesses are on the defensive side of the ball so far. My hope is that the defense begins to turn the corner. Last week we saw some good signs. Let's hope the trend continues this weekend.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

please

 

nobody hates running the ball well...what i do hate is the kind of 1985 'nothing puts more pressure on an opposing defense than a good running game' type thinking

 

we are ABSOLUTELY trying to run out the clock. that is literally the whole point of running the ball at the highest rate in the NFL. and what that produces is fewer possessions, the majority of which are inordinately run heavy (which is not in fact as capable of 'hitting big plays' as passing the ball has always been +ev compared to rushing on average, not even taking into account a QB who accumulates EPA and TDs at an historic rate) 

 

the concept that a james cook run puts more pressure on a defense than a josh allen pass is both historically and practically ridiculous

lol I feel like bills fans should know better than probably every other fanbase how demoralizing and frustrating it can be when a team goes heavy and just rams the running game down your throat and you’ve got no answers.  
 

Everyone talks like mcd is the only guy in the nfl that likes to play nickel but that’s the base defense of the nfl and everyone is loaded up to get after passers.  A good running game fundamentally changes everything from how pretty much every opposing defense likes to play.  I don’t think epa per play is really capturing that.. the whole thing is all just pretty ironic because the threat of a josh Allen run has been opening up a lot in the passing game for years.

 

to each their own though I’ve gotta agree to disagree.  Maybe it doesn’t apply to you specifically but I think a lot of people are taking a good running game and what goes into it for granted 

 

[BullBuchanan]

25 minutes ago, Donuts and Doritos said:

We're 15th in passing yards per game.

 

That's not "Elite" it's in the middle of 32 teams which is average.

 

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Passing Yards per Game | TeamRankings.com https://share.google/suDRiZc3evnT25wY6

 

Passing yards per game isn't a stat that tells you anything meaningful. 

You could be 1st in passing yards per game with the lowest yards per attempt in the league. That doesn't mean you're good at throwing the football. It means you throw the football a lot in spite of how bad you are at it.

In the Bills case, they're the 5th best team  in the league at throwing the football. They just happen to not throw it that much. 

Edited 4 hours ago by BullBuchanan

[BillsFanForever19]

7 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

What I'm trying to tell you, and I'm guessing you didn't watch the video based on your responses, 

 

You're right. I didn't. Bc I've seen videos from this guy before. He uses debatebro tactics and backwards logic to argue insane points like "Quarterback is the most overrated position in sports" and that Mahomes isn't that great too seem like the smartest man in the room:

 

 

Which I assume you're falling for with comments like:

 

7 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

What folks aren't seeing however is just how successful the passing game has been so far. 

 

You point to YPA's and Pass Attempts v. Run and ignore what is clear on the field and in other metrics.

 

If our passing game was successful, then in games where we needed it and weren't as successful in running the ball as we've been in most games - we wouldn't have lost. All season, save for Week 1 when teams didn't know our formula and weren't aware of how woeful our WR's were at getting open, we've either ran wild with Cook or lost.

 

Last week it was the same formula. And it worked against Carolina. But we will need to pass at a Championship level to beat Championship teams. And we haven't shown the ability to beat teams when the Running game isn't all we need or need the pass to stay in the game.

[BullBuchanan]

30 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

please

 

nobody hates running the ball well...what i do hate is the kind of 1985 'nothing puts more pressure on an opposing defense than a good running game' type thinking

 

we are ABSOLUTELY trying to run out the clock. that is literally the whole point of running the ball at the highest rate in the NFL. and what that produces is fewer possessions, the majority of which are inordinately run heavy (which is not in fact as capable of 'hitting big plays' as passing the ball has always been +ev compared to rushing on average, not even taking into account a QB who accumulates EPA and TDs at an historic rate) 

 

the concept that a james cook run puts more pressure on a defense than a josh allen pass is both historically and practically ridiculous

Except apparently the math says that rushing slightly more than passing is the maximum +EV move.

2 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

You're right. I didn't. Bc I've seen videos from this guy before. He uses debatebro tactics and backwards logic to argue insane points like "Quarterback is the most overrated position in sports" and that Mahomes isn't that great too seem like the smartest man in the room:

 

 

Which I assume you're falling for with comments like:

 

 

You point to YPA's and Pass Attempts v. Run and ignore what is clear on the field and in other metrics.

 

If our passing game was successful, then in games where we needed it and weren't as successful in running the ball as we've been in most games - we wouldn't have lost. All season, save for Week 1 when teams didn't know our formula and weren't aware of how woeful our WR's were at getting open, we've either ran wild with Cook or lost.

 

Last week it was the same formula. And it worked against Carolina. But we will need to pass at a Championship level to beat Championship teams. And we haven't shown the ability to beat teams when the Running game isn't all we need or need the pass to stay in the game.

Then why are you even engaging with my post? The entire premise here is to talk about how Michael's insights correlate directly with what McBeane has been telling us, and if it's possible they've cracked the code.

If you just want to cry about how we should pass the ball more/better, there are already 1000 threads for that. This isn't that thread,

Edited 4 hours ago by BullBuchanan