Game week thread - Chiefs at Bills

[T.E.]

3 hours ago, Success said:

I'm ALREADY annoyed about the "Bills always beat them in the regular & lose to them in the playoffs" narrative.

If it makes you feel any better, the media never gives the Bills any credit for routinely beating them in the regular season.

[DapperCam]

Almost all of our games vs KC are close. I don't expect this one to be any different. KC looks a lot more mortal this season. Defense isn't as stout in past seasons, and Mahomes has gone on a heater, but still has looked uncharacteristic for large stretches.

[Kirby Jackson]

I’m having a hard time getting excited for this game. In years past, especially last year, I thought about the matchup all week. That stadium was electric last year when Josh took off on 4th down. It just feels like this game doesn’t really matter. Obviously it matters in terms of winning the division and potentially in terms of seeding. The reality is, the regular season is just kind of “there” now. It would be great to have the 1 seed. It would be great to win the division and host playoff games. It would be great if KC had to come here in the playoffs. At the end of the day, all that matter is what happens in January and, God willing, February. Maybe I’ve gotten spoiled or jaded but this just doesn’t get me all hyped like it used to. At this point, a Super Bowl Championship is the only thing that matters.

Edited 1 hour ago by Kirby Jackson

[90sBills]

18 minutes ago, beebe said:

the chiefs are highly likely going to have to finish 11-6 to make the playoffs because they're currently in the back seat vs nearly the entire afc if they finish 10-7. assuming a win vs washington tonight, they'll be 5-3 entering their bye week, with this remaining schedule:

 

Chiefs -1 at Bills (53% chance of win)

Chiefs -1 at Broncos (53%)

Chiefs -3.5 vs Colts (60%)

Chiefs -4.5 at Cowboys (63%)

Chiefs -6.5 vs Texans (68%)

Chiefs -5 vs Chargers (64%)

Chiefs -14 at Titans (85%)

Chiefs -4.5 vs Broncos (63%)

Chiefs -8.5 at Raiders (73%)

 

that equates to 5.82 expected wins on top of the 5 they'd have after winning tonight.

 

so 10.82 expected wins. 

 

11 wins, they're in. 

 

10 wins, they're very likely out. 

 

the chargers and broncos have easier schedules than the chiefs by comparison and both have tiebreakers over KC. the bills are a virtual playoff lock. the patriots could lose 5 of their final 9 games and would make the playoffs 86% of the time (per NYT bot). the colts are already at 7 wins. the afc north will likely produce just one playoff team. the jaguars are the shakiest of the playoff contenders but could be 5-3 with a win vs raiders and still get to play the titans twice as well as the jets (and have beaten KC head to head). 

 

the bills could deliver a serious blow to kc's playoff chances. 

 

 

Tom Brady/Patriots beat the Chiefs in the 2018 regular season and again in the AFC title game that same year. 

 

Joe Burrow/Bengals beat the Chiefs in the 2021 regular season and again in the AFC title game that same year. 

 

 

Spags wasn’t there for those Pats games. But yeah Bengals showed it can be done. 

[90sBills]

6 minutes ago, T.E. said:

If it makes you feel any better, the media never gives the Bills any credit for routinely beating them in the regular season.

Because it’s ultimately meaningless when they lose in the playoffs. Once or twice is ok. You gotta see that 4 times is ridiculous. I hope the media keeps driving that narrative into the playoffs should they see KC again. Maybe the team will be sick of hearing it and do something. 

[Gregg]

33 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I’m having a hard time getting excited for this game. In years past, especially last year, I thought about the matchup all week. That stadium was electric last year when Josh took off on 4th down. It just feels like this game doesn’t really matter. Obviously it matters in terms of winning he division and potentially in terms of seeding. The reality is, the regular season is just kind of “there” now. It would be great to have the 1 seed. It would be great to win the division and host playoff games. It would be great if KC had to come here in the playoffs. At the end of the day, all that matter is what happens in January and, God willing, February. Maybe I’ve gotten spoiled or jaded but this just doesn’t get me all hyped like it used to. At this point, a Super Bowl Championship is the only thing that matters.

 

It does matter. The Bills need to catch NE. Also get the head-to-head tiebreaker vs KC in case both teams go into the playoffs as WCs. Denver is 6-2 with KC 4-3 going into tonight so a WC may be the Chiefs only shot at the playoffs. If the teams meet in the playoffs I would rather it be played at Highmark instead of Arrowhead. Also 6-2 just looks and feels a lot better than 5-3. This game matters. It matters a lot.

Edited 2 hours ago by Gregg

[bills742]

 

[90sBills]

10 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

Almost all of our games vs KC are close. I don't expect this one to be any different. KC looks a lot more mortal this season. Defense isn't as stout in past seasons, and Mahomes has gone on a heater, but still has looked uncharacteristic for large stretches.

I disagree. They looked mortal last season. They took that smoke and mirrors show all the way to the Super Bowl. 
 

This year, so far, they’re a lot more formidable on offense. It started when Worthy came back for the Baltimore game. Now Mahomes has all his receivers. He threw an uncharacteristic pick 6 in the Jax game but otherwise has looked like 2022 Mahomes, especially the last two games. 

6 minutes ago, Gregg said:

 

It does matter. The Bills need to catch NE. Also get the head-to-head tiebreaker vs KC in case both teams go into the playoffs as WCs. Denver is 6-2 with KC 3-3 going into tonight so a WC may be the Chiefs only shot at the playoffs. If the teams meet in the playoffs I would rather it be played at Highmark instead of Arrowhead. Also 6-2 just looks and feels a lot better than 5-3. This game matters. It matters a lot.

KC is 4-3. If they win tonight they’d only be 1 game behind Denver and the Chargers with games remaining against them.

[Gregg]

7 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

I disagree. They looked mortal last season. They took that smoke and mirrors show all the way to the Super Bowl. 
 

This year, so far, they’re a lot more formidable on offense. It started when Worthy came back for the Baltimore game. Now Mahomes has all his receivers. He threw an uncharacteristic pick 6 in the Jax game but otherwise has looked like 2022 Mahomes, especially the last two games. 

KC is 4-3. If they win tonight they’d only be 1 game behind Denver and the Chargers with games remaining against them.

 

My bad you are right they are 4-3. Those Broncos - Chiefs games are going to be must see TV this year.

Edited 2 hours ago by Gregg

[90sBills]

Just now, Gregg said:

 

My bad you are right they are 4-3. Those Broncos - Chiefs games are going to be must see TV this year.

Yup. It’s good to see the other teams in that division stepping up. 

[transplantbillsfan]

23 minutes ago, bills742 said:

 

 

Man if we could get a HEALTHY Jones and Palmer back, that would be huge!

 

I'd almost prefer it if one of Bernard and Milano stays out in favor of Shaq Thompson, who I REALLY hope ends up starting from now on.

[HOUSE]

The Chiefs are coming and they bring their own referees with them

No prediction

[Peace Frog]

KC vs Bills comparison

 

WR - KC

TE - even

O-line - even

RB - even

QB - slight edge to KC

 

D-line - KC

LB - KC

DB - KC

Safety - KC

 

ST - even

 

Coaching - KC

 

Intangibles - even

 

Final score prediction: Chiefs - 34, Bills 25

 

 

[Gregg]

1 minute ago, HOUSE said:

The Chiefs are coming and they bring their own referees with them

No prediction

 

 

[hondo in seattle]

4 hours ago, Success said:

I feel good about this one.  There are games where the team hasn't seemed as motivated as usual this year - but that won't be a problem w/ this one.

 

 

I don't feel good about this one. I don't believe our main problem is motivation. I think the major issue is talent.  

Every level of our defense has struggled this year.  Yet every level has also had at least one good game.  Can they all play well at the same time against KC?

 

Our running offense has been good but we're probably going to need our passing attack to be productive, too.  Mostly, our downfield passing game has sucked, except in the 4th quarter of the Ravens game.  Can Brady, once again, figure out how to call an effective downfield pass game?

I have big questions and fear for the worst while hoping for the best.  

 

 

33 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I’m having a hard time getting excited for this game. In years past, especially last year, I thought about the matchup all week. That stadium was electric last year when Josh took off on 4th down. It just feels like this game doesn’t really matter. Obviously it matters in terms of winning he division and potentially in terms of seeding. The reality is, the regular season is just kind of “there” now. It would be great to have the 1 seed. It would be great to win the division and host playoff games. It would be great if KC had to come here in the playoffs. At the end of the day, all that matter is what happens in January and, God willing, February. Maybe I’ve gotten spoiled or jaded but this just doesn’t get me all hyped like it used to. At this point, a Super Bowl Championship is the only thing that matters.

 

I'm just as excited as usual.  Though in years past, this was a battle of juggernauts, and it felt like one of them would end up in the SB.  This year, I don't think either of these teams are - at present - in the top two of the AFC.  Though maybe they just haven't peaked yet.  

[oldmanfan]

I am encouraged by the play of the D line yesterday.  We need pressure on Mahomes.  When we have the ball we need Palmer back and Kincaid to be healthier, but I expect a big diet of Cook again until the Chiefs show they can slow him down.

[The Jokeman]

30 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

Because it’s ultimately meaningless when they lose in the playoffs. Once or twice is ok. You gotta see that 4 times is ridiculous. I hope the media keeps driving that narrative into the playoffs should they see KC again. Maybe the team will be sick of hearing it and do something. 

Or maybe we can beat the Chiefs in the regular season this year and lessen and/or prevent them from playing them in the post season with as tight things are in their division/Conference is this year.

[90sBills]

1 minute ago, The Jokeman said:

Or maybe we can beat the Chiefs in the regular season this year and lessen and/or prevent them from playing them in the post season with as tight things are in their division/Conference is this year.

Sure. It can certainly play out that way. Don’t count on the media to drive any narrative close to this notion. That’s what we’re talking about here, media narratives. 
 

I think both teams will be in the postseason regardless of Sunday’s outcome. 

[Kirby Jackson]

56 minutes ago, Gregg said:

 

It does matter. The Bills need to catch NE. Also get the head-to-head tiebreaker vs KC in case both teams go into the playoffs as WCs. Denver is 6-2 with KC 4-3 going into tonight so a WC may be the Chiefs only shot at the playoffs. If the teams meet in the playoffs I would rather it be played at Highmark instead of Arrowhead. Also 6-2 just looks and feels a lot better than 5-3. This game matters. It matters a lot.

I “get it” but we’ve seen this before. All of those things are “nice” but they don’t matter. What matters is doing it in January. I’m not going to overreact one way or the other to a game on November 2nd. There’s way too much that’ll happen between now and when it matters. I won’t be excited/satisfied with an AFCE title and an appearance in the AFC Championship again. 

Edited 1 hour ago by Kirby Jackson

[QLBillsFan]

27 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

KC vs Bills comparison

 

WR - KC

TE - even

O-line - even

RB - even

QB - slight edge to KC

 

D-line - KC

LB - KC

DB - KC

Safety - KC

 

ST - even

 

Coaching - KC

 

Intangibles - even

 

Final score prediction: Chiefs - 34, Bills 25

 

 

Cook is best RB in this game, not particularly close. Otherwise fair enough. Bills 31-30.