Bills are just 4 games away from being the most patient fanbase in the Super Bowl era.

[Chaos]

this is an interesting related stat.

 

There are a total of 10 first or second year  (Rookie) Head Coaches (5) that made it to the super bowl. 

 

Don McCafferty (Baltimore Colts, Won Super Bowl V

Red Miller (Denver Broncos, Lost Super Bowl XII

George Seifert (San Francisco 49ers, Won Super Bowl XXIV

Bill Callahan (Oakland Raiders, Lost Super Bowl XXXVII

Jim Caldwell (Indianapolis Colts, Lost Super Bowl XLIV
 

Second-Year Head Coaches (5)

Ray Malavasi (Los Angeles Rams, Lost Super Bowl XIV

Mike Tomlin (Pittsburgh Steelers, Won Super Bowl XLIII

Jim Harbaugh (San Francisco 49ers, Lost Super Bowl XLVII

Doug Pederson (Philadelphia Eagles, Won Super Bowl LII

Sean McVay (Los Angeles Rams, Lost Super Bowl LIII

Edited 9 hours ago by Chaos

[GunnerBill]

How many of those fired a coach who at the time was top 15 all time win percentage?

 

That is the point. There really is no equivalent for where the Bills are at.

[Boatdrinks]

Strange title. Pretty sure the fan base doesn’t hire/ fire coaches. Most patient ownership maybe, if it’s quantified by firing coaches. 

[Billsflyer12]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

How many of those fired a coach who at the time was top 15 all time win percentage?

 

That is the point. There really is no equivalent for where the Bills are at.

John Fox with Broncos had .719 winning percentage, 3 Divisional games losses, 1 Super Bowl loss and was fired.  Gary Kubiak won Super Bowl 50 the next season, his 1st with the team in 2015.

Edited 8 hours ago by Billsflyer12

[Chaos]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

How many of those fired a coach who at the time was top 15 all time win percentage?

 

That is the point. There really is no equivalent for where the Bills are at.

Its really not.  If the goal is a championship, or even just getting to the Super Bowl something needs to change, or you are hoping for an unprecedented result essentially a lighing strike.  All the coaches and QBs in that list were good.  However, none of those coaches had a QB in the running for to be the league MVP year after year.

And a change does not mean getting rid of McDermott.  While its  seems unthinkable, there are a couple of teams who might be poised to get to the Super Bowl immediately (maybe the lions or rams, who could trade a QB who fits McDermott's preference for a game manager style QB, and a boat load of picks to use to assemble something resembling a Defensive Guru, defense. 

[Simon]

1 hour ago, NoSaint said:

Do we think we have more of an Andy dalton problem or a Marvin Lewis/norv Turner problem?

 

Probably more a Reid/Mahomes problem, imo.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Billsflyer12 said:

John Fox with Broncos had .719 winning percentage, 3 Divisional games losses and 1 Super Bowl loss and was fired.  Gary Kubiak won Super Bowl 50 the next season, his 1st with the team in 2015.

 

That is fair but he wasn't a first time Head Coach. And that Broncos Superbowl team is the worst champion of my fandom. McDermott has hard AT LEAST three teams better than them.

[Chaos]

2 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

Strange title. Pretty sure the fan base doesn’t hire/ fire coaches. Most patient ownership maybe, if it’s quantified by firing coaches. 

Technically you are 100% correct. But from the perspective a fan forum, there are plenty of guys, who will still tell you you need to trust the process and be patient.  And historically, ownerships do tend to be responsive to their customers. 

 

Edited 8 hours ago by Chaos

[BigDingus]

That's what happens when your HC oversees the one side of the ball that's been a perpetual issue in the playoffs, yet you have no way to fix it without letting him go. 

 

You can replace the OC or ST coach, but the defense stays the same regardless. And it's not just about the scheme & play calling, it's about the allocation of money & draft resources on rosters spots... all of which contribute to the defense declining each year. 

 

Pairing Mahomes with Andy Reid was the best thing ever for his career. He has a great offensive coach to support his career, all while allowing them the flexibility to change the defense if something isn't working. Allen doesn't have the option, not as long as McDermott is HC.

[Chaos]

3 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

That's what happens when your HC oversees the one side of the ball that's been a perpetual issue in the playoffs, yet you have no way to fix it without letting him go. 

 

You can replace the OC or ST coach, but the defense stays the same regardless. And it's not just about the scheme & play calling, it's about the allocation of money & draft resources on rosters spots... all of which contribute to the defense declining each year. 

 

Pairing Mahomes with Andy Reid was the best thing ever for his career. He has a great offensive coach to support his career, all while allowing them the flexibility to change the defense if something isn't working. Allen doesn't have the option, not as long as McDermott is HC.

All existing evidence supports your analysis, as far as I can tell. 

[Billsflyer12]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That is fair but he wasn't a first time Head Coach. And that Broncos Superbowl team is the worst champion of my fandom. McDermott has hard AT LEAST three teams better than them.

John Fox went to the Super Bowl in his 2nd season coaching with the Carolina Panthers.  My point is Fox in his career up till he was fired by Broncos had 7 playoff appearances, 2 Super Bowl appearances, 1 conference championship appearance, and 4 divisional round appearances and was still fired.  Those who ask all the time “who you going to get who is better?” the Broncos hired a coach who won the Super Bowl the very next season.

[GunnerBill]

18 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Its really not.  If the goal is a championship, or even just getting to the Super Bowl something needs to change, or you are hoping for an unprecedented result essentially a lighing strike.  All the coaches and QBs in that list were good.  However, none of those coaches had a QB in the running for to be the league MVP year after year.

And a change does not mean getting rid of McDermott.  While its  seems unthinkable, there are a couple of teams who might be poised to get to the Super Bowl immediately (maybe the lions or rams, who could trade a QB who fits McDermott's preference for a game manager style QB, and a boat load of picks to use to assemble something resembling a Defensive Guru, defense. 

 

It is. None have had a first time Head Coach and QB groomed in house who together are top 10 all time win percentage. And where the coach alone is top 15. 

 

I am not saying that means you can't fire McDermott. But what I am saying is your historical comparisons are meaningless.

7 minutes ago, Billsflyer12 said:

John Fox went to the Super Bowl in his 2nd season coaching with the Carolina Panthers.  My point is Fox in his career up till he was fired by Broncos had 7 playoff appearances, 2 Super Bowl appearances, 1 conference championship appearance, and 4 divisional round appearances and was still fired.  Those who ask all the time “who you going to get who is better?” the Broncos hired a coach who won the Super Bowl the very next season.

 

To be clear I have never made the "who is better?" argument for not firing McDermott. That is a stupid argument. You fire your coach when you think they are not the guy and not depending on who is or isn't available. 

 

My point in this thread is the historical comparisons are not really indicative of anything.

[2003Contenders]

1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

It's amazing how similar the Ravens and Bills are.  Unprecedented in terms of overall record over a long period of time with the same HC/franchise QB without a Super Bowl appearance.  Hats off to the Chiefs I guess.

And the common denominator? Neither team has been able to get past the Reid-Mahomes Chiefs. McDermott-Allen would have at least 2 Super Bowl appearances (perhaps as many as 4) if not for the Chiefs knocking them out. The Harbaugh-Jackson Ravens would have one appearance as well.

 

This must have been how the Colts and Oilers teams felt back in the 70s when the Dolphins and Steelers ruled. The Madden-Stabler Raiders were in the same boat until they eventually won a Super Bowl of their own. Hopefully we do the same one of these days.

[Chaos]

6 minutes ago, 2003Contenders said:

And the common denominator? Neither team has been able to get past the Reid-Mahomes Chiefs. McDermott-Allen would have at least 2 Super Bowl appearances (perhaps as many as 4) if not for the Chiefs knocking them out. The Harbaugh-Jackson Ravens would have one appearance as well.

 

This must have been how the Colts and Oilers teams felt back in the 70s when the Dolphins and Steelers ruled. The Madden-Stabler Raiders were in the same boat until they eventually won a Super Bowl of their own. Hopefully we do the same one of these days.

Mahomes is not better than Brady.  Peyton Manning, Big Ben, got past him multiple times.  Rich Gannon and Joe Flacco even got by them. 

Joe Burrows and the Bengals got by Mahomes.  So did the Patriots.  

 

[Brand J]

Complacent. Stale. Routine. Whatever you want to call it, the Bills and McD/Allen have seemingly reached this point. Not to mention only Cook and Oliver have elevated their play post second contract.

[Boatdrinks]

1 hour ago, MPL said:

suppose we'll find out on Sunday if we have an Andy Dalton problem. 

Maybe not. Young at practice today, so still possible he gets the start. 

[90sBills]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

I think Madden/Stabler did in the 70's

 

I believe they got it done in their 4th year together. 

[kitchen sink]

2 hours ago, Chaos said:

Theory 1:  every NFL management team in the Super Bowl has pulled the plug early on a coach or QB and only the Bills are doing it correctly. 
Theory 2: we are well past the conventional time for making a change in one of these roles. 

NFL's Longest Lasting Coach-Quarterback Duos to Never Reach a Super Bowl

I vote Theory 1.

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

It's amazing how similar the Ravens and Bills are.  Unprecedented in terms of overall record over a long period of time with the same HC/franchise QB without a Super Bowl appearance.  Hats off to the Chiefs I guess.

Yes hats off to the Chiefs, Eagles and even the Rams / Bucs for having the intelligence to surround their qb with a well run organization.  Which includes coaches and a GM selecting the right pieces. 

 

[Boatdrinks]

46 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Technically you are 100% correct. But from the perspective a fan forum, there are plenty of guys, who will still tell you you need to trust the process and be patient.  And historically, ownerships do tend to be responsive to their customers. 

 

Most Bills fans probably don’t frequent  a fan form. While it is obviously possible to make a big change during a period of team success, I’d venture these instances weren’t driven by a lack of fan support. They were likely driven by a GM, an impatient owner ( or both ). Perhaps a franchise QB had influence as well. Fans usually support their teams when they’re winning. I’m not lobbying for McDermott here - or against him. I just don’t think fans have much to do with these decisions. Winning is the name of the game.