All 22 Review: Bills vs Patriots

[thenorthremembers]

Going to give these a shot.  Likely not going to get too far into the weeds on it because it takes a lifetime to watch these things, but its helpful from a fan perspective to get an idea of the nuts and bolts.   I'll start with the offense and go by half.    If I have time I'll add the defense later on.    

 

1st Half Summary- Blame it on the coordinator

I think it's often too easy to blame coordinators for bad football, especially if you haven't watched the game tape to get a real understanding of what prompted certain calls.   That said, in the 1st half the Bills were essentially running the throw stuff at the wall and see if it sticks scheme.  The personnel groupings and formations were all over the place.  They tried everything from 10 personnel with 4 wide and trips, to 21 and 22 personnel with bunch formations, often using one wideout.   It was like Joe Brady was trying to reinvent the wheel of high school play calling.   Brady came into the game knowing the Patriots run a heavily man-based defense, and most of what they were trying to do was win outside the hashes with wideouts who can't beat man coverage.    The game plan in the first half was lazy, and akin to a coach deciding to watch zero tape of the opposing defense.   

 

Notes:

Its man defense- where are the crossers, digs, and slants?  

Multiple instances of wideouts and tight ends running short of the sticks

Need to start running more out of the shotgun

 

2nd Half Summary- Blame it on the Quarterback

The Bills were in 11 personnel around 25% of the time in the first half.   In the second half they stopped getting cute and ran 11 personnel 72% of the time.    On top of that they finally ran a crossing route!  A lot has been made about the wideouts being bad in this offense.  While they aren't speed demons who can split two high safety or win on go routes, they can produce when asked to do what they do well.    That said, the QB needs to be who he was in the first four games and take what the defense gives him.   Sadly, that's not the QB the Bills got in the second half.  While he was more productive, the All 22 showed he was dead set on doing what he wanted rather than taking what was there.

 

Have screenshots of the plays below but no clue how to post.  

 

5:17 Left 3rd Quarter- Kincaid absolutely smokes the safety at the same time Josh tries the back shoulder to  Shavers.  If he waits a second longer, he likely has Kincaid for 6.

 

11:18 Left 4th Quarter- Crossing route is wide open to Knox.  Josh comes off the read.

 

5:11 Left 4th Quarter- Josh doesnt take the easy outbreaking route to Kincaid.  Instead he throws to Cook on the sideline covered and is lucky to get a PI.

 

5:01 Left 4th Quarter- This one is on Samuel- Call looks to be a Go or a Post.   Corner drops off 10 yards.  Instead of breaking off his route to a out or comeback Samuel keeps running towards the CB.  Would have been an easy 6-yard gain plus space to run.

 

4:52 Left 4th- Josh doesnt take the open crosser to Coleman.  Cook doesnt block free rusher.  Sack

 

2:43 Left 4th- Josh has Cook wide open on the crosser, doesnt take it for an easy 5 yard gain.  Also has Palmer on an outbreaking route for 7 or more. Scrambles, has Knox open coming back towards the hash for a 17 yard pass, doesnt take it.  Launches a pass across the field to Coleman in the back of the endzone.   Out of bounds.

 

2:31 Left 4th- Shakir and Kincaid immediately open on crosser short of sticks.   Johnson has single coverage on a wheel route to the endzone-why isnt Cook in the game!  Samuel wide open at the front of opposite side of the endzone- likely an impossible throw.

 

 

Game Summary- The good news is the Bills beat themselves.  I am not sure what Joe Brady was doing in the first half of the game.  I am also not sure what Josh Allen was doing in the 2nd half.   The Bills need another outside WR, but they arent as hapless there as I thought before I watched the film.   Put this one away, dont shoot yourself in the foot next time you play the Pats.   The Patriots didnt do anything great on defense.  I have every expectation that Allen wont play like this in the second meeting.  

 

Player Grades

 

Bull Market

The Offensive Line- They lost a few reps but otherwise they were fantastic.  Specifically, the left side of the line played very well

 

Kincaid- He had a great night and it would have been even better if he played more reps.  I dont care if its as a slot, outside WR, or either tight end position, he needs to be in the game unless he's injured or needs a breather.   His blocking still leaves a little to be desired.  But outside of Cook or Allen he is the best weapon the Bills have on offense.  

 

Better than I Expected

Dawson Knox- Not flashy but he did his job.   He was open when he needed to be, whether the QB saw him or not.   

 

Josh Palmer- Not a game breaker by any means but he is the best outside receiver the Bills have in terms of understanding leverage and route running.   Needs to be on the field more. 

 

Bear Market

Keon Coleman- He caught a touchdown but the tape isn't good.   He flat out can't beat corners off the line in man coverage.   The coordinator doesn't put him in advantageous positions.     Much better in the second half because Brady finally started calling crossing routes.  But he is a very limited player at this point in his career.  

 

Shavers- Not to dunk on a kid that barely made the team but for those of you waiting for him to be the savior at WR, stop.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited 2 hours ago by thenorthremembers

[RunTheBall]

Idk wtf Brady was thinking. Instead of attacking NE weaknesses, he lined up and said “This is what we are doing, try and stop it” and NE did. Just awful gameplan all around. It doesn’t take a Film Bro to see Pats* weakness was coverage LB and safeties, yet except for Kincaid we didnt attack the middle constantly. Instead, he kept trying to win against solid man corners with WRs who’ve proven they can’t beat solid man coverage. Just ridiculous. There should have been a ton of screens/wheels/slants to RBs out of the backfield when we forced in them into heavy personel. Instead, we ran like 80% of the time. The tendency to run from under center and throw from shotgun was egregious and arrogant. He also got away from the run game way too quick. NE had a good scheme to stop what we like to do, but instead of trying a different scheme he just gave up.

 

[ScotSHO]

Josh was likely concussed.  He got his head slapped off the turf early in the 3rd quarter. 

 

Josh is also a pro's pro, so he'll never get pulled unless the lights go out for >10 seconds.

[GoBills808]

the throw to Shavers looks like a half field read based on that cover1 presnap look

 

ball is just not going to Kincaid's side once safety declares

[thenorthremembers]

17 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

the throw to Shavers looks like a half field read based on that cover1 presnap look

 

ball is just not going to Kincaid's side once safety declares

 

It looked like the Patriots were trying to disguise Cover 1 pre snap.    Its cover 1 man, but the weak side safety didn't declare until post snap.  Regardless you have 1 on 1 with Kincaid on a safety with a middle deep strong side safety that isn't likely to make a play on it.    Agree he went into a half field read but thats the frustrating part.

 

Have screenshots of the plays just cant post them. 

[HappyDays]

22 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

2:43 Left 4th- Josh has Cook wide open on the crosser, doesnt take it for an easy 5 yard gain.  Also has Palmer on an outbreaking route for 7 or more. Scrambles, has Knox open coming back towards the hash for a 17 yard pass, doesnt take it.  Launches a pass across the field to Coleman in the back of the endzone.   Out of bounds.

 

I can't speak for all of your notes without going back and checking each play, but this is one I know you are wrong about. Here's the 2nd and 10 play:

 

Cook isn't running a crosser, he's just the checkdown option and he ends up double covered. Allen quickly gets through his progressions and back to Cook because everything else is blanketed. However as he gears up to throw to him he sees the right most LB's body leverage has him in position to crush Cook even if the pass is completed. He wisely turns down the throw and goes into scramble mode because that's the only remaining option. And Knox (or Kincaid?) is never getting the ball on the scramble drill because his defender is directly behind him ready to break it up. Allen briefly points left as if to signal to him to break to the open space but Knox/Kincaid doesn't see it and at that point Allen has no options so he throws it away.

 

I put this play's failure on Brady. The first read is Coleman running vertical against their best CB Gonzalez? Yeah that's not gonna get it done. It's hard to see the exact routes on the trips side because the all-22 camera weirdly doesn't show everything but it looks like everybody is just running verticals and all of the routes are easily capped. It doesn't look like this play ever had any good options unless Coleman flat out beat Gonzalez. Brady needs to be better than this in critical moments.

[GoBills808]

Just now, thenorthremembers said:

 

It looked like the Patriots were trying to disguise Cover 1 pre snap.    Its cover 1 man, but the weak side safety didn't declare until post snap.  Regardless you have 1 on 1 with Kincaid on a safety with a middle deep strong side safety that isn't likely to make a play on it.    Agree he went into a half field read but thats the frustrating part.

 

Have screenshots of the plays just cant post them. 

ill post it for you

 

i dont know how disguised it was...pure cover 1 presnap

 

 

Allen is reading weakside the whole way, never even peeks R, so he definitely sees safety declare

that ball is never going to kincaid imo

[34-78-83]

47 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

 

 

1st Half Summary- Blame it on the coordinator

I think it's often too easy to blame coordinators for bad football, especially if you haven't watched the game tape to get a real understanding of what prompted certain calls.   That said, in the 1st half the Bills were essentially running the throw stuff at the wall and see if it sticks scheme.  The personnel groupings and formations were all over the place.  They tried everything from 10 personnel with 4 wide and trips, to 21 and 22 personnel with bunch formations, often using one wideout.   It was like Joe Brady was trying to reinvent the wheel of high school play calling.   Brady came into the game knowing the Patriots run a heavily man-based defense, and most of what they were trying to do was win outside the hashes with wideouts who can't beat man coverage.    The game plan in the first half was lazy, and akin to a coach deciding to watch zero tape of the opposing defense.   

 

Notes:

Its man defense- where are the crossers, digs, and slants?  

Multiple instances of wideouts and tight ends running short of the sticks

Need to start running more out of the shotgun

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks for providing your breakdown. That takes time!

 

Regarding the section I quoted above, I don't agree that the Pats ran much man. Unless you're talking about man under or cover 2 man, or something like that? They were locked in with 2 deep safeties over the top for the vast majority of the contest. Even when they went to cover1, the 2nd safety came down late from way up high. They invited the Bills to run because of the confidence they had in their front 7 and it was honestly a bit surprising the Bills didn't have more rush attempts.

Edited 1 hour ago by 34-78-83

[thenorthremembers]

7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

ill post it for you

 

i dont know how disguised it was...pure cover 1 presnap

 

 

Allen is reading weakside the whole way, never even peeks R, so he definitely sees safety declare

that ball is never going to kincaid imo

The play is certainly cover 1 post snap.  When I look at the setup I see cover 2 pre snap.   

[blacklabel]

42 minutes ago, ScotSHO said:

Josh was likely concussed.  He got his head slapped off the turf early in the 3rd quarter. 

 

Josh is also a pro's pro, so he'll never get pulled unless the lights go out for >10 seconds.

 

Yeah I don't like to speculate but I had the same thought. I thought it was kinda interesting how they showed the replay and pointed out how he bonks his head on the turf but wouldn't cut to a shot of him on the sidelines or anything. That's not super unusual but typically they go to a shot of whichever player is being talked about. Made me wonder if he was getting checked out on the sidelines or something. 

 

And then he came out in the second half and had some good plays but also seemed like he was pressing a bit to make a big play and he just either didn't see some open guys out there or he did and didn't fire it for whatever reason. 

 

At the same time, it seems like they're good for one kinda "WTF was that?!" game every year in the McBeane Era. Last year it was Houston. Year before that was Jacksonville, etc. 

Edited 1 hour ago by blacklabel

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, thenorthremembers said:

The play is certainly cover 1 post snap.  When I look at the setup I see cover 2 pre snap.   

ok

i guarantee you allen and kincaid didnt

[thenorthremembers]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

ok

i guarantee you allen and kincaid didnt

Thats fine and youre likely right.  I am just telling you what I see.  Ive coached but I am also trying to learn.

[Success]

It bugs me to hear that it looked like we were just lazy in the 1st half.

 

I have generally felt like this regime doesn't quite understand how important these New England games are to the fanbase.

 

[thenorthremembers]

8 minutes ago, 34-78-83 said:

Thanks for providing your breakdown. That takes time!

 

Regarding the section I quoted above, I don't agree that the Pats ran much man. Unless you're talking about man under or cover 2 man, or something like that? They were locked in with 2 deep safeties over the top for the vast majority of the contest. Even when they went to cover1, the 2nd safety came down late from way up high. They invited the Bills to run because of the confidence they had in their front 7 and it was honestly a bit surprising the Bills didn't have more rush attempts.

 

Yes Cover 2 Man Under.   

[Big Blitz]

31 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I can't speak for all of your notes without going back and checking each play, but this is one I know you are wrong about. Here's the 2nd and 10 play:

 

Cook isn't running a crosser, he's just the checkdown option and he ends up double covered. Allen quickly gets through his progressions and back to Cook because everything else is blanketed. However as he gears up to throw to him he sees the right most LB's body leverage has him in position to crush Cook even if the pass is completed. He wisely turns down the throw and goes into scramble mode because that's the only remaining option. And Knox (or Kincaid?) is never getting the ball on the scramble drill because his defender is directly behind him ready to break it up. Allen briefly points left as if to signal to him to break to the open space but Knox/Kincaid doesn't see it and at that point Allen has no options so he throws it away.

 

I put this play's failure on Brady. The first read is Coleman running vertical against their best CB Gonzalez? Yeah that's not gonna get it done. It's hard to see the exact routes on the trips side because the all-22 camera weirdly doesn't show everything but it looks like everybody is just running verticals and all of the routes are easily capped. It doesn't look like this play ever had any good options unless Coleman flat out beat Gonzalez. Brady needs to be better than this in critical moments.

 

 

My favorite part of this play is Gonzalez with his hands all over Keon holding up the route while Josh is still in the pocket going thru progressions. 
 

WE NEVER DRAW ILLEGAL USE OF HANDS. 

 

EVER

[HappyDays]

2 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

My favorite part of this play is Gonzalez with his hands all over Keon holding up the route while Josh is still in the pocket going thru progressions. 
 

WE NEVER DRAW ILLEGAL USE OF HANDS. 

 

EVER

 

Nah that's just basic hand fighting. That's never getting called nor should it be. DBs are allowed to place their hand on their man in coverage as long as they not forcibly restricting their movement. If DBs weren't allowed to do that they wouldn't be able to orient themselves in coverage and you might as well just eliminate pass defense at that point.

 

Edited 1 hour ago by HappyDays

[Big Blitz]

5 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Nah that's just basic hand fighting. That's never getting called nor should it be. DBs are allowed to place their hand on their man in coverage as long as they not forcibly restricting their movement. If DBs weren't allowed to do that they wouldn't be able to orient themselves in coverage and you might as well just eliminate pass defense at that point.

 

 

I don’t necessarily have a problem with it - but it’s called all the time and it feels like against us at least once a game.   
 

That looked like Chiefs style coverage they operate knowing they can’t call it all game - especially against the perceived inferior WRs vs Superior CB

How many times was Elam called for that?

[GoBills808]

47 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I can't speak for all of your notes without going back and checking each play, but this is one I know you are wrong about. Here's the 2nd and 10 play:

 

Cook isn't running a crosser, he's just the checkdown option and he ends up double covered. Allen quickly gets through his progressions and back to Cook because everything else is blanketed. However as he gears up to throw to him he sees the right most LB's body leverage has him in position to crush Cook even if the pass is completed. He wisely turns down the throw and goes into scramble mode because that's the only remaining option. And Knox (or Kincaid?) is never getting the ball on the scramble drill because his defender is directly behind him ready to break it up. Allen briefly points left as if to signal to him to break to the open space but Knox/Kincaid doesn't see it and at that point Allen has no options so he throws it away.

 

I put this play's failure on Brady. The first read is Coleman running vertical against their best CB Gonzalez? Yeah that's not gonna get it done. It's hard to see the exact routes on the trips side because the all-22 camera weirdly doesn't show everything but it looks like everybody is just running verticals and all of the routes are easily capped. It doesn't look like this play ever had any good options unless Coleman flat out beat Gonzalez. Brady needs to be better than this in critical moments.

right lol i referenced this specific play earlier in another thread!

 

why run 3 verts and a double move from shotgun w a 3step drop instead of playaction or something? nobody's even looking back by the time Allen hits the top of his drop

 

 

 

[HappyDays]

5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

right lol i referenced this specific play earlier in another thread!

 

why run 3 verts and a double move from shotgun w a 3step drop instead of playaction or something? nobody's even looking back by the time Allen hits the top of his drop

 

 

 

 

Yeah I don't know. It is just bad play design. Cook as the checkdown is drawing the attention of both LBs, so why isn't one of those verticals breaking off left into that massive voided space? It's hard to tell what the intent even is here.

 

Our personnel isn't built to run all verticals on 2nd and 10, especially into the teeth of a talented and well coached secondary. The goal here needs to be pick up 6-12 yards to either move the chains or get into a manageable 3rd down. I don't like that our offense has that restriction but Brady has to call the offense around the personnel he's been given. Throughout this whole game Brady got away from what we do well.

[rajinka]

1 hour ago, RunTheBall said:

Idk wtf Brady was thinking. Instead of attacking NE weaknesses, he lined up and said “This is what we are doing, try and stop it” and NE did. Just awful gameplan all around. It doesn’t take a Film Bro to see Pats* weakness was coverage LB and safeties, yet except for Kincaid we didnt attack the middle constantly. Instead, he kept trying to win against solid man corners with WRs who’ve proven they can’t beat solid man coverage. Just ridiculous. There should have been a ton of screens/wheels/slants to RBs out of the backfield when we forced in them into heavy personel. Instead, we ran like 80% of the time. The tendency to run from under center and throw from shotgun was egregious and arrogant. He also got away from the run game way too quick. NE had a good scheme to stop what we like to do, but instead of trying a different scheme he just gave up.

 

And this is where I was at in the scheme ppl open mindset in the keon thread.  Brady alot of times doesn't play to his players strengths and attack the d's weakness.  pretty much line up and run what they wanna run