Absolutely Thrilled with the Win -- Who Do You Give THE Most Credit & Who Gets None?

[LABILLBACKER]

....at least he didn't say McNarcolespy....

[Mr. WEO]

22 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

If from the top down this team did not respect McDermott they would have folded like a napkin 

 

Sean McDermott is tough and gritty and our team has displayed that for years.. you punch us we get up and punch you back in the mouth.. you think you have us pinned, we're about to reverse you... Never stopping always clawing 

 

Yeah Josh Allen is our Superstar Sean McDermott is a hell of a football coach.. you need to have the ability to have the guys rally around you and believe in your message .. even when the game is bleak 

 

And our defense came to play the last couple drives when we needed it.. if they didn't believe in McDermott and his message they would have folded like a wet paper bag

 

he was probably thinking this game is a shootout and I don't know if I can get multiple stops 

 

If I can get one stop with this two-point conversion a touchdown an extra point wins the game 

 

he was playing to get out of there before overtime

 

17 minutes ago, Got 2 Billieve said:

Wrong! McDermott came in and set the standard and vision of what type of football team he wants to run culture wise.  That's why they drafted Josh Allen.  Remember when the fans were upset because they said Allen instead of Rosen on draft night.  Having said that Josh is amazing and his values align with that vision which include being accountable and hardworking.  It's a collaborative effort.  That is what Sean excels at.  He certainly didn't excel in game management as a head coach for the first several seasons as we all know.  He was all about culture and what type of organization he envisions.  

nah.  Regular season Josh has them on pace.  Come playoffs, Allen plays lights out and the Defense is poorly prepared and McD makes inexplicable calls (last night Coach was in “playoff” form). 
 

when the Bills perennially exit before they should, McD fires a Coordinator. That’s his “tone”.

[WinterSoldier17]

I don’t care about the least credit, but to anyone watching that game last night Josh Allen was on a different plane of existence. He was lethal, lights out, and was NOT going to lose that game. He’s always fighting and clawing for that win.

 

It was an incredible football game, and I’ll just say that I’m happy that JA17 is our leader and QB at the helm of this ship. I had real chills from watching this classic, and make no mistake…this was a classic! There might not be a better NFL game all season than what we were privy to last night. 
 

Twas’ beautiful! 🤩 

[Buffalo Boy]

1 hour ago, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

I'm just curious.  After the TD by Cook, it was 27-19.  Why go for 2 point conversion there ?

 

Why not just kick the extra point and have the score be 27-20 ?  Down by just 1 TD

 

Anybody know what McDermott was thinking ?

He wasn’t …. He wasn’t thinking….i said it in the game thread…..inexplicable 

[HIT BY SPIKES]

43 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

I think if you really put your mind to it, you could make an even more lame post…,

 

I will leave that for you.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

14 minutes ago, Buffalo Boy said:

He wasn’t …. He wasn’t thinking….i said it in the game thread…..inexplicable 

I feel like teams are going for the two pointer earlier these days…I’m gonna try to do some digging on it but I really feel like I’ve seen that quite a few times recently 

 

posters are a bit behind on the new hot analytics trend I think 😂. (Although that doesn’t mean it’s right)

 

in fact failing early probably worked out as they knew they were chasing an extra fg late and I have little faith any individual 2 pointer was anywhere near a 50% success rate that game haha 

Edited September 8 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[LABILLBACKER]

12 minutes ago, Buffalo Boy said:

He wasn’t …. He wasn’t thinking….i said it in the game thread…..inexplicable 

It made absolutely no sense. And from there we just kept chasing points with 3 failed 2pt conversions. Prater probably would've gone 5/5. 🤔

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

36 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

It made absolutely no sense. And from there we just kept chasing points with 3 failed 2pt conversions. Prater probably would've gone 5/5. 🤔

Hahaha I straight up confused myself replying to this and had to delete it twice…wasn’t that the missed two pointer where the ravens had too many men moving us up to the 1? I’ve definitely seen teams go for that in all spots.  There were so many two pointers that I was thinking of a later one initially lol pretty good shot you get the 2 pointer and if you don’t there’s time to get another in a game where the ravens are scoring at will and you gotta figure out some way to maybe steal a possession somewhere down the road 

Edited September 8 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

We only went for 2 after the Baltimore penalty on the PAT. 

 

They're looking at expected points added by the decision to go for PAT or 2. 

 

Kicking PAT: 95% success rate * 1 point = 0.95 expected points

2 pt conversion from the 2 yard line: 40% success rate * 2 points = 0.8 expected points

2 pt conversion from the 1 yard line: 60% success rate * 2 points = 1.2 expected points

 

You can tinker with the success rates, but that's the basic idea. 

 

Thanks for this.  And you're exactly right. 

 

Logically and statistically, McD made the right decision on the first two-pointer.  When it failed anyway, he was forced to go for the subsequent 2-pointers.  Each decision was rational by itself.  But we failed on each of them so hindsight says it would have been better to kick all those EPs.  

 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 minute ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Thanks for this.  And you're exactly right. 

 

Logically and statistically, McD made the right decision on the first two-pointer.  When it failed anyway, he was forced to go for the subsequent 2-pointers.  Each decision was rational by itself.  But we failed on each of them so hindsight says it would have been better to kick all those EPs.  

 

It’s funny cuz one of the most famous two pointer principles is you’re probably not gonna fail on two (especially when one starts on the 1 yard line) yet we sure did 😂. Kinda got hosed on the first one though 

[Buffalo Boy]

26 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Thanks for this.  And you're exactly right. 

 

Logically and statistically, McD made the right decision on the first two-pointer.  When it failed anyway, he was forced to go for the subsequent 2-pointers.  Each decision was rational by itself.  But we failed on each of them so hindsight says it would have been better to kick all those EPs.  

 

  A coaches job is to make the right decision at that specific moment in the game. 
   The team was reeling. We were already in “ catch-up” mode and no one should have had any expectation that our D would stop Baltimore making every point sacrosanct.

   Going for the first one down 8 points was not the right call in that game at that moment.

[paulmm3]

PFF isn't perfect but I think they got this one right. Best players were Josh and Ed Oliver and I thought the OL held up well. Worst players for me were Rapp, Bernard, and Milano.

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, Buffalo Boy said:

  A coaches job is to make the right decision at that specific moment in the game. 
   The team was reeling. We were already in “ catch-up” mode and no one should have had any expectation that our D would stop Baltimore making every point sacrosanct.

   Going for the first one down 8 points was not the right call in that game at that moment.

 

From a game theory, statistical, and/or probabilistic point of view, it was the right decision.  Simple math says so.

 

From a subjective point of view, it's hard to say.  How much would've that first two-point conversion, which was likely to be converted, meant beyond the scoreboard in terms of momentum and team morale?  How much would failing the two-point conversion - which was unlikely but did happen - hurt momentum and morale?  Given the probabilities, was it worth the risk?  You decide.  But I think a lot of coaches would've made the same decision that Sean made.  

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

11 hours ago, Niagara Dude said:

I personally believe the Bills need to get Power ready because our current safety position is terrible

Owen Power plays safety? 

[Buffalo Boy]

45 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

From a game theory, statistical, and/or probabilistic point of view, it was the right decision.  Simple math says so.

 

From a subjective point of view, it's hard to say.  How much would've that first two-point conversion, which was likely to be converted, meant beyond the scoreboard in terms of momentum and team morale?  How much would failing the two-point conversion - which was unlikely but did happen - hurt momentum and morale?  Given the probabilities, was it worth the risk?  You decide.  But I think a lot of coaches would've made the same decision that Sean made.  

I think you are right.

But, what is maddening is he is conservative when he needs to let it hang out and risky when prudence might be more prudent.

[In Summary]

I'm reading 51 snaps and 2 solo tackles for Dorian Strong. Can we say he did OK, or was he a liability? 

[Mr. WEO]

19 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Thanks for this.  And you're exactly right. 

 

Logically and statistically, McD made the right decision on the first two-pointer.  When it failed anyway, he was forced to go for the subsequent 2-pointers.  Each decision was rational by itself.  But we failed on each of them so hindsight says it would have been better to kick all those EPs.  

 

We can conclude the Bills aren’t a 60% from the 1 yard line team

[BigAl2526]

Josh Allen deserves the most credit, obviously.  Not sure who to blame, but the run defense was abysmal.

[stuvian]

McDermotts conditioning program enabled us to overcome the Ravens power run game in the 4th quarter and deliver the win