Hypothetical NFL players that could be traded for a 1st

[Kirby Jackson]

This was posted today from Bill Barnwell. Found it kind of interesting. Obviously it is a hypothetical but a fun read:

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/45824150/nfl-trade-tiers-2025-players-worth-first-round-pick-all-32-teams-contract-value

[MJS]

Spencer Brown but no Dion Dawkins? They are both awesome.

[Bruffalo]

Greg Rousseau being worth a first round pick feels like a bit of a stretch.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Interesting article.

I think he overvalues some QBs. I would not give up two first round picks for Hurts or Caleb Williams. I wouldn't give up a first for Purdy either. 

I wouldn't give up a first round pick for Rousseau if I was another team but if a team offered a top 20 pick I would take it and let Rousseau go. I doubt it would work for salary cap issues but I'd take my chances with another top 20 DE draft pick on a rookie deal. I think Brown could be allpro level RT. If his back is ok it would take more than a first round pick for me to let him go. I know he is not a LT but for me the distinction is not that big of a deal. 

 

I love how he values Allen. If you played the hypothetical of his wife demanding he move to LA and he demanded a trade or hexwoudl retire, what would the compensation be. If the Vegas Raiders offered 3 first and 3 second round picks amd you had to trade him that still might not be enough. Hes better than Watson ever was and I think Watson got 3 firsts and a couple seconds. Maybe a team like Minnesota that was capable of winning it all now would make some insane offer like 4 first round picks. I know it won't ever happen but its fun to speculate what it would actually take. 

[Low Positive]

14 minutes ago, MJS said:

Spencer Brown but no Dion Dawkins? They are both awesome.

Age

[GoBills808]

@Doc Brownplz read this

 

basically all the top wideouts mentioned predicted to go for MORE than just a first round pick

 

another reason you shouldn't conflate trading a first round pick for a WR and drafting one in the first round

[MJS]

10 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

Age

Tackles can play for a long time.

[GunnerBill]

I don't think Spencer or Groot would fetch a first round pick. Think Barnwell major over estimates a lot of these. The list of guys that would fetch a first round pick in trade excluding QBs is pretty small IMO (excluding rookies):

 

The top 7 or 8 young WRs (JJ, Chase, AJB, Lamb, Nabers etc...) maybe three or four OTs (Sewell, Slater, Wirfs etc), then a handful of the elite pass rushers (Garrett, Hutch etc..) and some of the top corners (Surtain, Stingley, Sauce etc) 

 

But I think the list is probably no more than 25. 

Edited 19 hours ago by GunnerBill

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

I don't think Spencer or Groot would fetch a first round pick (excluding rookies). Think Barnwell major over estimates a lot of these. The list of guys that would fetch a first round pick in trade excluding QBs is pretty small IMO:

 

The top 7 or 8 young WRs (JJ, Chase, AJB, Lamb, Nabers etc...) maybe three or four OTs (Sewell, Slater, Wirfs etc), then a handful of the elite pass rushers (Garrett, Hutch etc..) and some of the top corners (Surtain, Stingley, Sauce etc) 

 

But I think the list is probably no more than 25. 

when we traded our pick for Diggs he was like WR 15

[GunnerBill]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

when we traded our pick for Diggs he was like WR 15

 

Nah, he wasn't. His production might have been but he was a top 5 receiver and the best route runner in football. I know you disagree on that, fine. 

[QCity]

He factors in contract value and current age.

[GoBills808]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

Nah, he wasn't. His production might have been but he was a top 5 receiver and the best route runner in football. I know you disagree on that, fine. 

no

 

he was never a top 5 receiver until he got here. he was producing at the 15-20 range. 15 is a generous rank for him when arrived and we still happily sent the first rounder

[Billl]

28 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

no

 

he was never a top 5 receiver until he got here. he was producing at the 15-20 range. 15 is a generous rank for him when arrived and we still happily sent the first rounder

The fact that he had a very reasonable contract factored heavily into that. 

[MJS]

31 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

no

 

he was never a top 5 receiver until he got here. he was producing at the 15-20 range. 15 is a generous rank for him when arrived and we still happily sent the first rounder

It was a widely held view that Diggs was better than what he was producing in Minnesota and that he could be a #1 receiver if he had more opportunities. He was the subject of a lot of trade rumors because of that, and because he was unhappy there.

 

And it turned out to be true. He came here and balled out for a few years and showed that the speculation was correct.

[Doc Brown]

33 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

@Doc Brownplz read this

 

basically all the top wideouts mentioned predicted to go for MORE than just a first round pick

 

another reason you shouldn't conflate trading a first round pick for a WR and drafting one in the first round

I just think draft capital is a better way of determining how much Beane invested at each specific position.  You obviously disagree.  I'd do that Diggs trade in a heartbeat again from where we were as a team with Josh still on his rookie contract because of every Justin Jefferson there's a Treylon Burks.  Anyone who watched the Vikings knew they were leaving a lot of meat on the bone with Diggs. 

 

I'm not even debating that Beane's failed miserably since then when it comes to drafting rookie WR's.  I know in his head he was thinking Diggs will be here at least through 2026, Davis can easily transition to the outside WR2 role, and McKenzie can effectively replace Beasley.  He should've been looking to draft a WR2 and an eventual Diggs replacement in the 1st or 2nd round going all the way back to 2021.  Doubling down at DE was stupid as Colliins and St. Brown for example were still on the board when the Basham abomination happened.  He could've traded up to draft Addison or Flowers who were his likely pick before that WR run happened and he had to pivot to Kincaid.  I was screaming to move up for Brian Thomas Jr. when he slipped that far.  He's failed miserably and the price is we're overpaying for middling FA's who've never even put up above 900 yards in a season in Samuel and Palmer.

[GoBills808]

Just now, MJS said:

It was a widely held view that Diggs was better than what he was producing in Minnesota and that he could be a #1 receiver if he had more opportunities. He was the subject of a lot of trade rumors because of that, and because he was unhappy there.

 

And it turned out to be true. He came here and balled out for a few years and showed that the speculation was correct.

correct

 

and there are quite a few of those kinds of guys in the league. jameson williams, darnell mooney, devonta smith, higgins, addison etc

[MJS]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

correct

 

and there are quite a few of those kinds of guys in the league. jameson williams, darnell mooney, devonta smith, higgins, addison etc

Hmm, I don't really agree with that. I think the Diggs situation was a little more unique. He was seen as a much safer bet to produce like a #1.

[GoBills808]

Just now, MJS said:

Hmm, I don't really agree with that. I think the Diggs situation was a little more unique. He was seen as a much safer bet to produce like a #1.

what you're remembering is it was a much safer bet that he'd be moved because he had the temperament of a 6year old. i dont remember anything suggesting he was more or less likely to succeed in that role than the guys i listed 

[Kirby Jackson]

11 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

because of every Justin Jefferson there's a Treylon Burks. 

 

Not to be nitpicky but I HATE this argument. This holds true for every single position. In fact, I’d venture to say WR success early, especially lately, is a higher hit percentage than most other positions. For every Josh Allen there is a Trey Lance. For every Joe Burrow there is a Mac Jones. For every Aidan Hutchinson there is a Jermaine Johnson. For every Penei Sewell there is an Alex Leatherwood.
 

I posted it earlier in the thread but basically 23 of the top 25 WRs in football were drafted in the top 3 rounds. Their average draft position was 41. I’ll bet that’s as high of a percentage of elite talent as any position outside of QB. You can’t be scared of missing because it’s tough to find elite talent later and the top guys don’t go to FA anymore.

[Doc Brown]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Not to be nitpicky but I HATE this argument. This holds true for every single position. In fact, I’d venture to say WR success early, especially lately, is a higher hit percentage than most other positions. For every Josh Allen there is a Trey Lance. For every Joe Burrow there is a Mac Jones. For every Aidan Hutchinson there is a Jermaine Johnson. For every Penei Sewell there is an Alex Leatherwood.
 

I posted it earlier in the thread but basically 23 of the top 25 WRs in football were drafted in the top 3 rounds. Their average draft position was 41. I’ll bet that’s as high of a percentage of elite talent as any position outside of QB. You can’t be scared of missing because it’s tough to find elite talent later and the top guys don’t go to FA anymore.

What's the bust percentage of WR's drafted in the back half of the first round?