Preseason - Around the League

[90sBills]

11 minutes ago, finn said:

I'm not saying the games are coin flips. I'm just pushing back on the notion that we can't talk about many variables in play without being accused of making excuses. The coin analogy was meant to illustrate probability, not to claim every game comes down only to luck. Obviously, many factors contribute to probability. 

 

That said, I do worry that losing four times to KC will get into the head of this Bills team. That might have happened to the Kelly-era Bills. I'm convinced that if they had beaten the Giants, they would have won at least one more Super Bowl, maybe more than one more. Kelly's nerves were jangled against the Redskins, and Thurman quit against the Cowboys. Those were two warriors, too. 

I guess my issue when people bring up coin tosses is the probabilities between football teams are not the same as the probabilities of coin tosses. With coin tosses you know absolutely without a doubt that tails will come up despite how many heads has happened. With a team game like football there are so many variables that the outcomes will not necessarily be even between two teams. 
 

I do believe the Bills will get over KC and it could happen this season. Completely agree on your Super Bowl comments. Man it still hurts thinking about those. Damn. 

[SoTier]

2 hours ago, finn said:

You should join my critical-thinking class. In fact, we'll be addressing the Straw Man fallacy next week. I don't use sarcasm on my students, but I'll use it on you since, as a veteran poster, you should know better. "Yes! In fact every success in every sport is due entirely to luck. Thank you SO much for understanding my position!"

 

I urge you to re-read my post. I said when teams are this close, probability plays an outsized role, and you can get lopsided results that do not reflect just how even the teams are. Yet shallow thinkers, never trained to bracket their knee-jerk reactions and actually think, insist that Destiny or Greatness are the real reason for the result. So Mahomes is far better than Allen, and the Bills are inferior as a whole to the Champions. 

 

I'm very glad I don't live in that world. I'm sure it's comfortable, but I would miss using my mind. 

 

There's no better example of the outsized role luck (probability) plays in a football game between closely matched team than the 13-seconds game.  Neither team could stop the other.  The Chiefs won the coin toss, and the Bills never got to touch the ball.  If the Bills had won the coin toss, they were likely to go to the Super Bowl.

 

[NewEra]

15 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

Every year a lot of people on this board write off the chiefs. And every year they reach the championship game, go to the Super Bowl, or win the Super Bowl lol.

 

No matter how bad the chiefs may look in certain stretches during the regular season, it's straight up foolish to write them off.

Agreed.  I think the KC offense will be much improved with the return of Rice and, imo, they had one of the best drafts in the league.  Simmons has the ability to change the dynamics of their OL.  Losing Thuney will hurt, but having a LT that doesn’t suck is going to make a big difference.  Norman Lott has great pass rushing potential from the inside and I really like what Gillote brings on the edge in terms of creating pressure.  I would’ve been happy with Jalen Royals in rd 2 and they got him in rd 4.  Add Nohl Williams to the CB unit and Breshard Smith to eventually become McKinnon 2.0 and it’s a home run draft in my book.  
 

KC isn’t going anywhere- I expect them to be better than last year on O and about the same on D.  Like we say every year-  we can beat them in the playoffs if we’re reasonably healthy and the D line can get pressure and disrupt their flow.  Both have been issues the last 2 playoff meetings. 

[Nihilarian]

1 hour ago, 90sBills said:

The rest of his post were refs, injuries, and bad executions (missed fg) as reasons we lost. 

Did I manage to pull those out of thin air, or did they actually happen? 

 

Speaking of luck and coin flips. In that 13-second game, hadn't Josh Allen been calling the same coin toss all season long and winning it most of the time? Then, in that particular game, he called for the same thing that had helped them all season, and it went the other way. The Chiefs won the toss and proceeded to drive down to the field and score to win the game. As I stated, the NFL changed its rules after that game to allow both teams possession in OT. 

 

Last season, did the referees not have two bad spots on two different drives for first downs that didn't give Buffalo the first down? As I recall, the announcers seemed to think the Bills made a first down?

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nij522rqrls

 

Was I wrong about all the defensive injuries at the end of the season to starters in both 2023 and 2024?

 

Was AJ Kline about to go on vacation just before he was called up to play and played against KC in that playoff game? For that 2023 playoff game, Buffalo players who were OUT, starting CB Christian Benford, Starting safety Taylor Rapp, and LB Baylon Spector. Then there were the questionable players, Terrel Bernard, Rasul Douglas, and Taron Johnson. Then, the players on IR, Tre White, Matt Milano, Von Miller, and Jordan Phillips.  Good lord!

 

In 2024, Taylor Rapp (hip/back), who was out, and Christian Benford, who exited the game with a concussion in the first quarter, while Matt Milano and Taron Johnson were listed as available but had been limited earlier in the week with injuries. Starting safety and starting cornerback both out for this game, and a rookie who had been injured for most of the preseason was forced to start. 

 

There were real reasons as to why the Buffalo Bills lost those close playoff games to their #1 enemy. I look at them more as reasons rather than excuses.  

 

[finn]

2 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

Listen, I get that I really don't have a place with next level thinkers like yourself. But some of us smooth brains look at how teams execute in critical moments as way to evaluate them. We don't chalk that consistent execution or failure to execute up to luck, to do so would invalidate the difficulty of executing in those situations.  It would remove credit from the teams that do. It would effectively rewrite the history of the game.

 

I know that seems intriguing to the most brilliant minds but us simple people tend to think those moments are made up of failed execution. Situations like letting a defensive lineman plant your QB a millisecond before he hits a wide open WR. Leaving the seams completely unprotected with almost no time in the game remaining. Not recognizing a blitz package forcing an off script throw and then dropping a pass or multiple passes. But I get this is a simple view. The simple view actually puts responsibility on the teams for outcomes while the brilliant minds know it's all just random.  

 

Who would argue that we aren't close? Nobody. The argument is what does close actually mean? Coin flips or being consistently outflanked and outmaneuvered. 

Apologies, I didn't mean to be insulting. My point really is pretty obscure, and I wasn't very articulate expressing it. I'm trying to get at a phenomenon I haven't seen described elsewhere, and it's hard to pin down. Let me try once more:

 

I see two teams, seemingly even overall, face off. One wins, barely. Here is the phenomenon: Commentators disproportionately praise the winners, downplaying or ignoring their many mistakes, while condemning or lamenting the loser, focusing on their mistakes while pretty much ignoring the good things they did, which might even exceed the good things the winning team did. Even if the difference came down to a single bad call by the ref, or a player slipping in the mud, the one team is Glorious, the other a Loser, the one enjoying nothing but admiration, the other little but criticism. That strikes me as lazy thinking, a surrender to emotion (on the part of both sides). 

 

I get that this emotional response is part of the fun of being a fan. But the Spock in me rolls my eyes whenever I hear, for example, Mahomes lauded as The Holy One and Allen as the guy who can't get it done. If I'm Mahomes, after any of those playoff victories against the Bills, I'm saying to Allen, "Man, that could so easily have gone either way," and my triumph would be accordingly tempered by this humbling fact. 

[Mikie2times]

5 hours ago, finn said:

Apologies, I didn't mean to be insulting. My point really is pretty obscure, and I wasn't very articulate expressing it. I'm trying to get at a phenomenon I haven't seen described elsewhere, and it's hard to pin down. Let me try once more:

 

I see two teams, seemingly even overall, face off. One wins, barely. Here is the phenomenon: Commentators disproportionately praise the winners, downplaying or ignoring their many mistakes, while condemning or lamenting the loser, focusing on their mistakes while pretty much ignoring the good things they did, which might even exceed the good things the winning team did. Even if the difference came down to a single bad call by the ref, or a player slipping in the mud, the one team is Glorious, the other a Loser, the one enjoying nothing but admiration, the other little but criticism. That strikes me as lazy thinking, a surrender to emotion (on the part of both sides). 

 

I get that this emotional response is part of the fun of being a fan. But the Spock in me rolls my eyes whenever I hear, for example, Mahomes lauded as The Holy One and Allen as the guy who can't get it done. If I'm Mahomes, after any of those playoff victories against the Bills, I'm saying to Allen, "Man, that could so easily have gone either way," and my triumph would be accordingly tempered by this humbling fact. 

Everybody over reacts to the winner and loser. Usually a lot of good opportunities to bet as a result. Football is not a game where the better team always wins. It can be used both for us and against us. I find it is used on our behalf just as much as it isn't.

 

As an example, I thought Baltimore outplayed us in the 2nd playoff game. Which would make two straight games and what I think will be three straight games after Sunday. But a lot of people here look at the 2nd playoff game as a reason for more optimism, because we won. To me we got outplayed by a large margin in the 2nd half. After what was about as good of a 1st half as we could play. 

 

I think you need to see the nuance in the game. All the situational elements that lead to big swings. How points are being scored. Then likely multiple games against that opponent. Then you can get some sense of what is real. But in that, I would never expect most fans or the media to care a stitch about any of this. But realistically, as time progresses, should they care? For example, at this point, despite knowing we are on KC's level, should we believe we will execute better than them in the final 5 minutes? I see no reason to think that and I don't think it's random. We either don't execute at the player level or at the coaching level in clutch moments. Which at that level of play, situational football is literally an entire element of a team, like offense, defense, and special teams is.

 

So sure, we are really close in a lot of ways with KC and the narratives are bit overblown. Indy was really close to New England as a similar example. Likely even better. But like Indy, we aren't close to being our best when it matters most. They did just that the year they won the Super Bowl with that huge 4th quarter comeback. That is what it finally took. We will need a similar exorcism of the demons to actually change these narratives.  

 

 

 

Edited September 1 by Mikie2times

[90sBills]

3 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

 

There were real reasons as to why the Buffalo Bills lost those close playoff games to their #1 enemy. I look at them more as reasons rather than excuses.  

 

When a team has lost four times to the same team at the most critical point of those seasons, ‘reasons’ ring hollow at some point. It sure has for me. It hasn’t for you, apparently.

[BarleyNY]

5 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

There's no better example of the outsized role luck (probability) plays in a football game between closely matched team than the 13-seconds game.  Neither team could stop the other.  The Chiefs won the coin toss, and the Bills never got to touch the ball.  If the Bills had won the coin toss, they were likely to go to the Super Bowl.

 

Except that there would never have been a coin toss without the catastrophic coaching malfeasance that preceded it. 

[Mikie2times]

6 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

There's no better example of the outsized role luck (probability) plays in a football game between closely matched team than the 13-seconds game.  Neither team could stop the other.  The Chiefs won the coin toss, and the Bills never got to touch the ball.  If the Bills had won the coin toss, they were likely to go to the Super Bowl.

 

Well, first we would have to have won our first OT game in Josh Allen's career, which is probably likely. Then we would have to beat the best version of the team we couldn't beat. Which is not as likely. But yes, after those two things happened we would have went to the Super Bowl. 

[Nihilarian]

3 hours ago, 90sBills said:

When a team has lost four times to the same team at the most critical point of those seasons, ‘reasons’ ring hollow at some point. It sure has for me. It hasn’t for you, apparently.

I get it. It does get frustrating at times to be a Buffalo Bills fan.

 

Although it's not like this head coach stands still and makes no changes to improve the team.  The ST coordinator was recently changed, and for the first time, this new coach has good experience in ST. The head strength and conditioning coach was recently changed due to all the injuries. That 13-second DC was changed. The Buffalo OC has been changed several times since 2017, and the last time was during the season after six losses. 

 

Buffalo did attempt to hire Steve Spagnuolo as their defensive coordinator, but instead, sadly, he chose the Chiefs. The Bills should be fine with Bobby Babich, as he was a rookie DC in 2024 and should improve under McD. Buffalo did lead the NFL in turnover differential in 2024. Also, let's not forget that McD called the defensive plays for the 2023 season, and considering all the injuries that season, I'd say he did a GD good job. #4 in points allowed and #9 in yards allowed. 

 

In my view, this current Buffalo Bills HC & GM strives for excellence and wants to win that final season game as much, if not more than, any fan.

[90sBills]

16 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

I get it. It does get frustrating at times to be a Buffalo Bills fan.

 

Although it's not like this head coach stands still and makes no changes to improve the team.  The ST coordinator was recently changed, and for the first time, this new coach has good experience in ST. The head strength and conditioning coach was recently changed due to all the injuries. That 13-second DC was changed. The Buffalo OC has been changed several times since 2017, and the last time was during the season after six losses. 

 

Buffalo did attempt to hire Steve Spagnuolo as their defensive coordinator, but instead, sadly, he chose the Chiefs. The Bills should be fine with Bobby Babich, as he was a rookie DC in 2024 and should improve under McD. Buffalo did lead the NFL in turnover differential in 2024. Also, let's not forget that McD called the defensive plays for the 2023 season, and considering all the injuries that season, I'd say he did a GD good job. #4 in points allowed and #9 in yards allowed. 

 

In my view, this current Buffalo Bills HC & GM strives for excellence and wants to win that final season game as much, if not more than, any fan.

Agree with all your points. I’m not one of those fire McD and it’ll be great type of fan. But his leash has to be shortened with every season that goes by without a championship. 
 

Cheers!
Go Bills!

[SoTier]

12 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

Except that there would never have been a coin toss without the catastrophic coaching malfeasance that preceded it. 

 

You are missing the point that @finn made that when 2 teams are closely matched, luck/chance becomes much more influential than normal.  I'm not talking about how the game was tied, but that it was tied, and that winning the coin flip gave KC the first crack at winning the game.

 

11 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

Well, first we would have to have won our first OT game in Josh Allen's career, which is probably likely. Then we would have to beat the best version of the team we couldn't beat. Which is not as likely. But yes, after those two things happened we would have went to the Super Bowl. 

 

KC couldn't stop the Bills any more than the Bills could stop the Chiefs in that game.   The way they were playing, the coin toss for OT was much more important than it might have been in any other game that season.   The game wasn't tied because the teams had failed to score in the second half, but because each team scored almost at will during the last few minutes of the fourth quarter.

[GunnerBill]

18 hours ago, NewEra said:

Agreed.  I think the KC offense will be much improved with the return of Rice and, imo, they had one of the best drafts in the league.  Simmons has the ability to change the dynamics of their OL.  Losing Thuney will hurt, but having a LT that doesn’t suck is going to make a big difference.  Norman Lott has great pass rushing potential from the inside and I really like what Gillote brings on the edge in terms of creating pressure.  I would’ve been happy with Jalen Royals in rd 2 and they got him in rd 4.  Add Nohl Williams to the CB unit and Breshard Smith to eventually become McKinnon 2.0 and it’s a home run draft in my book.  
 

KC isn’t going anywhere- I expect them to be better than last year on O and about the same on D.  Like we say every year-  we can beat them in the playoffs if we’re reasonably healthy and the D line can get pressure and disrupt their flow.  Both have been issues the last 2 playoff meetings. 

 

Agree. I think this will be the best Chiefs offense in at least 3 years. When Rice is back and they can roll our Rice, Worthy and Hollywood that is the best 1,2,3 at receiver Mahomes will ever have had. I think Simmons, even if has some rookie ups and downs is the most talented guy they've ever had at left tackle in this era too - certainly as a pass blocker.

 

I think there is a very good chance the Chiefs are better than last year but win fewer regular season games because their schedule is tough and their division is much improved over where it was a couple of years ago. 12 or 13 wins a top 3 seed, another AFCW title and a more dangerous team than ever in the post season is my prediction. That said, my gut feeling is they won't make the SB this year. I just feel like someone will get them this time. 

[GunnerBill]

11 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

 

Buffalo did attempt to hire Steve Spagnuolo as their defensive coordinator, but instead, sadly, he chose the Chiefs. The Bills should be fine with Bobby Babich, as he was a rookie DC in 2024 and should improve under McD. Buffalo did lead the NFL in turnover differential in 2024. Also, let's not forget that McD called the defensive plays for the 2023 season, and considering all the injuries that season, I'd say he did a GD good job. #4 in points allowed and #9 in yards allowed. 

 

In my view, this current Buffalo Bills HC & GM strives for excellence and wants to win that final season game as much, if not more than, any fan.

 

Did they? The Bills had a DC who'd just led the #2 defense in the NFL at the point Spags was hired by the Chiefs. 

[BarleyNY]

26 minutes ago, SoTier said:

You are missing the point that @finn made that when 2 teams are closely matched, luck/chance becomes much more influential than normal.  I'm not talking about how the game was tied, but that it was tied, and that winning the coin flip gave KC the first crack at winning the game.

 

No one is arguing that in a game with equal opponents that luck can’t determine the victor. What many of us are arguing is that the playoff games against KC were not such games. The difference, as has been noted, was coaching, talent and/or preparation. Those all can also create a small margin that determines victory. 

 

The “bad luck” narrative has been pushed by the Bills through their media connections for what? Two seasons now? It’s BS. But it’s the only excuse that doesn’t point back to McDermott and Beane as being responsible. What’s more, I’d argue that it’s harmful to the team. The mentality of a champion is that they are in control of outcome the contest - even if that’s not completely true. The mentality has to be that every obstacle can be overcome, whether those challenges arise from the opponent, referee, environment, or anything else - including yourself/your own team.

 

Approving of the mentality of “Aw, shucks! Look at that bad break. Oh, well. Not our fault. Maybe next year.” is incredibly detrimental to the odds of winning a championship. It’s the job of the coaches and FO to stamp out that kind of thinking, not promote it. 

[Royale with Cheese]

I'm just going to say it.....

 

Jamie Erdahl is hotter than Kay Adams.

 

[90sBills]

39 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

I'm just going to say it.....

 

Jamie Erdahl is hotter than Kay Adams.

 

Disagree. Early GMFB Kay Adams was the whole reason this show had traction. 

[Royale with Cheese]

1 minute ago, 90sBills said:

Disagree. Early GMFB Kay Adams was the whole reason this show had traction. 

 

She's just too skinny and tiny.

[Mikie2times]

4 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

 

No one is arguing that in a game with equal opponents that luck can’t determine the victor. What many of us are arguing is that the playoff games against KC were not such games. The difference, as has been noted, was coaching, talent and/or preparation. Those all can also create a small margin that determines victory. 

 

The “bad luck” narrative has been pushed by the Bills through their media connections for what? Two seasons now? It’s BS. But it’s the only excuse that doesn’t point back to McDermott and Beane as being responsible. What’s more, I’d argue that it’s harmful to the team. The mentality of a champion is that they are in control of outcome the contest - even if that’s not completely true. The mentality has to be that every obstacle can be overcome, whether those challenges arise from the opponent, referee, environment, or anything else - including yourself/your own team.

 

Approving of the mentality of “Aw, shucks! Look at that bad break. Oh, well. Not our fault. Maybe next year.” is incredibly detrimental to the odds of winning a championship. It’s the job of the coaches and FO to stamp out that kind of thinking, not promote it. 

“Luck is when preparation meets opportunity” 

[90sBills]

5 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

She's just too skinny and tiny.

She was healthier looking before. These days she could definitely use a few cheeseburgers.