THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Reloading

[SoTier]

3 hours ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

Gunner I like most of what you post.  But don’t sugar coat it.  Diggs was pretty bad the second half of last season.  He could not get open down the field.  He was dropping passes and looked disinterested. 
 

I think he is pretty much done.  A lot of guys have their day.  But he isn’t balling out til he is 35 like a Larry Fitzgerald Jerry Rice or Tony Gonzalez.  He was excellent for awhile, but not nearly in that pantheon.    
 

The Bills did great to dump him on Houston for a 2nd round pick.  

 

Sadly, I think you might be right.   The Diggs we saw on the field and along the sidelines in the second half of last season wasn't the Stefon Diggs whom Bills fans cheered for the previous three seasons.  Maybe he was hampered by some nagging injury that was never revealed or maybe he just slowed down enough that he couldn't be what he was before.  In either case, his frustration showed, and maybe in a new situation, he can regain some of his previous form.

[Mat68]

3 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

That's interesting, what you say about Samuel.   I have trouble seeing him having some kind of career year.   I see him as being the player he's been for several years, but in an offense that gives him more opportunities.  It's interesting to me to think of him as you suggest.  

 

As I try to visualize the passing attack, I'm asking myself. "Who is going to be the guy who's the premier guy, the feature guy.  Not that he dominates so much with big numbers, but is the guy we think of as the go-to guy?   Because Diggs was that guy, and that guy is important.   

 

That guy could be Kincaid.  He doesn't strike me as a leader, as a feature guy.   He may grow into more of a leadership role this year, but his play would have to step up from last season.  

 

As you say, it could be Samuel.   I don't see Samuel that way.  I think Samuel needs a premier guy next to him for Samuel to be valuable.  

 

Hard to see Shakir as that guy. 

 

And that leaves Coleman.  Who knows?  Maybe Coleman and Samuel, together, present a combination of match-up problems that forces defenses to reshape, which in turn gives Kincaid and Shakir room to operate.  That's definitely an offense where targets would be distributed more evenly, as you say.  

 

 

I do not expect Samuel to take over that role.  I think its likely he sees more volume than he has at any point in his career.  I think the targets go Kincaid, Shakir, Samuel, Coleman and Cook.  Coleman may move up that list but I think Kincaid and Shakir will be the early driving forces.  
 

Everyone bringing up analytics with Coleman but want to ignore it when explaining the decisions made this offseason in the wr room.  The most effective pass catchers in 23 for Buffalo were Kincaid, Shakir and Cook.  What changed midway through the season?  They moved targets away from Diggs, Davis and Knox to Shakir, Kincaid and Cook.  
 

Coleman out of the box will take the Davis role and similar targets maybe a tick less but more efficient catch rate.  They building off last year but upgrading the complimentary pieces.

[Mikey152]

I don't know how they are going to turn out or anything, but as somebody who lives in Columbus Ohio and watches a lot of Big 10 football, Curtis Samuel and KJ Hamler were two of the most dynamic college football players I have ever seen. Neither of them really had a position so they got drafted lower than their talent dictated, but both are crazy fast (wouldn't be surprised if they are two of the 10 fastest offensive players in the NFL) and make magic happen with the ball in their hands. Our offense COULD be outstanding if one or both of them hits.

 

It's a big if, but not out of the realm of possibility. Nevermind Shakir and Coleman and Kincaid.

 

Edited April 30 by Mikey152

[NickelCity]

Thanks for the write up. I'm really excited to see our offense this year, and curious to see the defense.

[Shaw66]

42 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

I do not expect Samuel to take over that role.  I think its likely he sees more volume than he has at any point in his career.  I think the targets go Kincaid, Shakir, Samuel, Coleman and Cook.  Coleman may move up that list but I think Kincaid and Shakir will be the early driving forces.  
 

Everyone bringing up analytics with Coleman but want to ignore it when explaining the decisions made this offseason in the wr room.  The most effective pass catchers in 23 for Buffalo were Kincaid, Shakir and Cook.  What changed midway through the season?  They moved targets away from Diggs, Davis and Knox to Shakir, Kincaid and Cook.  
 

Coleman out of the box will take the Davis role and similar targets maybe a tick less but more efficient catch rate.  They building off last year but upgrading the complimentary pieces.

That's an interesting take.   I have trouble seeing Shakir and Kincaid leading the way.   They both seem like complementary pieces.  

 

Does anyone know of a good in-depth breakdown on the 2023 passing game?   First half and second half were so dramatically different.   Was it just Brady going in another direction; was Diggs slumping, or did they move away from him intentionally?   Kincaid first half/second half?  

[Sweats]

But, if you listen to the media and some Bills fans, the team is imploding, and everyone should be fired effective immediately........UGH

[harmonkillebrew]

1 hour ago, Mat68 said:

I do not expect Samuel to take over that role.  I think its likely he sees more volume than he has at any point in his career.  I think the targets go Kincaid, Shakir, Samuel, Coleman and Cook.  Coleman may move up that list but I think Kincaid and Shakir will be the early driving forces.  
 

Everyone bringing up analytics with Coleman but want to ignore it when explaining the decisions made this offseason in the wr room.  The most effective pass catchers in 23 for Buffalo were Kincaid, Shakir and Cook.  What changed midway through the season?  They moved targets away from Diggs, Davis and Knox to Shakir, Kincaid and Cook.  
 

Coleman out of the box will take the Davis role and similar targets maybe a tick less but more efficient catch rate.  They building off last year but upgrading the complimentary pieces.

It feels more like we're treading water, rather than improving. The offense improved a bit when we ran more under Brady and Kincaid and Shakir stepped up for sure, but it didn't change the end result in the playoffs.  Now you take away two primary threats from before - Diggs and Davis - and Kincaid and Shakir will get more attention. Will Samuel and Coleman make up the difference?  There will be no real outside threat and I imagine teams will quickly sniff that out and our Offense will stagnate due to the lack of a diverse attack.  But if we can run it down peoples throats and then score TDs in the red zone at a high rate we'll be ok. 

[SoCal Deek]

Yikes that’s a ton of words! As I’ve said repeatedly, the Bills swung for the fences following 13 seconds, believing they were right on the proverbial doorstep…and they missed. Now, they have to reload. Will they be better? Does it matter? They didn’t have a choice but to turnover the roster. 
 

Not sure what all the rest of the analogies and yapping is about. 

[TH3]

21 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I often find that it’s useful to forget the money and the hype and the stars and instead to think about the game of football at its most basic.  I think about what it’s like to have a career as a high school football coach trying to win a championship.  

 

In high school, the raw material for building a roster is left mostly to chance (putting aside the little bit of recruiting that goes on in some places).  The head coach has very little control over the quality of players who show up on the first day of tryouts; the physical capabilities of most of those players was largely determined in random bedrooms 16 or 18 years earlier, and now here they are.  The coach’s job is to choose a roster from among the guys trying out, and then to train and mold them into a team that wins football games.

 

The programs with the best coaches have up years and down years like everyone else, but they tend to have more up years.  Why?  Because their brand of leadership, their teaching ability, and their strategic and tactical approach to the game is better than most other coaches.   So, even in years when the gene pool has left the coach a little short-handed compared to some other schools, their seasons often are quite successful. 

 

(I have had the opportunity to observe this phenomenon up close twice in my life.  I played high school basketball for Bob Hettler, one of the greatest high school coaches in New York State history, and I was on the faculty with Morgan Wootten, one of the greatest high school coaches in U.S. history.  The players changed year after year, but the winning more or less never stopped.  (Wootten did have the advantage of being able to recruit, at least a bit.)  Only occasionally did the talent fall together in just the right way to have a true championship caliber team, but even in down years, their teams stood out.)

 

Coaches know when the talent they have is outstanding and when it’s just okay.  Good coaches adapt to the challenge each season and look for the ways that this group of players can succeed, whether this group offers raw physical talent that is better or worse than last year’s group.  That’s the coach’s job, and good coaches find ways to win. 

 

Coaching is coaching, at any level.  Pro football coaches face the same annual roster turnover that high school coaches deal with.  There are differences, of course: The high school coaches have bigger problem, because their roster will be a collection 16-18 year-old kids with their own issues.  The pro coach, on the other hand, can expect at least semi-adult behavior from most of their players. 

 

The big difference, however, is the pro coach gets raw material selected from the very best players in the country.  The pro coach, year after year, is going to start the season with a training camp roster of 90 of the biggest, fastest, smartest, and toughest football players in the world.  And that means that the differences in team success based on physical talent become smaller:  the guy being tackled and the guy tackling both excel at their jobs.  For sure, if your team has more of the best guys, your team has an advantage, but in the NFL it’s very difficult to collect and hold onto talent that is physically dominant at several important positions.  In the current era, it isn’t possible to collect and keep stars like the Kelly-era Bills did.  

 

I’m not saying that getting the best talent doesn’t matter.   Of course, it matters.  What I’m saying is that not having the best talent doesn’t mean that you can’t compete.  With coaching, talent that is excellent but not the best can play a team-game that neutralizes the talent advantage any particular team might have.  Of course, if I have the best talent AND the best coaching, then the talent will be the difference.

 

People can argue endlessly about the talent on this roster and that roster, but at the end of the day success in the NFL is going to come down to how well coached your team is.  Does your coach get your team into the strategically and tactically correct offenses and defenses year-in, year out and game-in, game-out.  Does your coach get your team physically and mentally prepared to execute those offenses and defenses? 

 

In that context, consider for a moment what has happened to the Bills roster in the past three months that has the fan-base and the media all in a tizzy:  The Bills lost six big names from their roster:  White, Morse, Davis, Diggs, Hyde, and Poyer.  When each of those six came into the league, the draft market place valued them, by draft round, this way:  1, 2, 4, 5, 5, 7.  Add ‘em up:  24. 

 

And now consider the Bills’ top-six acquisitions over the past three months.  Samuel, Coleman, Bishop, Carter, Davis, Van Pran-Granger.  2, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5.  Total:  18. 

 

I’m not arguing for a second that there’s anything but the least-sophisticated logic to that analysis.  You can’t really just add up draft value and determine which college is better.  But those numbers aren't meaningless.

 

Those numbers are some evidence of the fact that the talent every team starts with, at least in terms of what the league thought of them when they came in.  Going into most drafts, most GMs would take 2, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5 over 1, 2, 4, 5, 5, 7. 

 

In terms of the quality of talent that will take the field in September compared to what the Bills had three months ago, I think I’ll take exactly where the Bills are today.  Think about the departures:  White, may still be a player, but at the very best he’s about to wind down, Morse, never the greatest physically, and his days were ending, Davis, the guy everyone loves to hate, Hyde slowing down and needs to go for his own health, Poyer, some years left, perhaps, but not his best. Diggs, may still be good, but not so good that he's worth the headache.  

 

Start looking at them player by player, or at least paired:  Would you rather have Diggs and Davis or Coleman and Samuel?  Would you rather have Morse or Van Pran-Granger?  Bishop or (pick one) Hyde or Poyer?  White or Carter?  Collectively, I'd rather have the youngsters than kept or extended all of those guys.

 

Now, for sure, not all of the rookies necessarily will pan out, and it may take them a year to begin to play at the level that’s needed for them to succeed in the league, but looking at the Bills three months ago and now, I will definitely take the uncertainty of these young talented players over the uncertainty of old, injured, troublesome talented players. 

 

Would the Bills be in an even better position if Beane had managed the draft in another way?   I don’t think so.  The extra talent one of the top three receivers in the draft would have brought to the team couldn’t offset the loss of the rest of the players the Bills drafted.  Said another way:  six guys are gone, and I like my chances better if I get six new guys instead of two (the new receiver and Curtis Samuel). 

 

In terms of how Beane and McDermott have done in their jobs, well, it depends if I’m a glass-half-empty or glass-half-full guy.  I like that they’ve improved the team, but I also have to ask why a group of unproven guys actually is better than the gang that just left?  How did the Bills get in the position they were in, with a group of guys who no longer were quite good enough to win, and with no backups in sight?

 

However they got to that position, I think if you asked McDermott if he likes the talent he has today, he’d say, “Absolutely!”  Can you win a Super Bowl with this talent?  “Absolutely!”  And that’s not just power-of-positive-thinking Sean speaking.  I mean, he and we thought he could win it with the talent he had last year, and if this is actually a better group, then why shouldn’t he think he should win this year? 

 

Translate this back to high school football.  It’s as though McDermott is coaching high school and has a five-star recruit at QB, several locks at D-1 scholarships (Milano, Oliver, Cook, Coleman, Torrence) and several guys who very well also might go D-1.   Considering D-2 and D-3, he has maybe 20 kids who are going to play in college.  Maybe one other high school in the state has a 5-star QB.  Some other schools might have two five-star players, but unless they have a five-star at QB, they can’t be as good together as the five-star QB he has.  Some other schools may end up with a few more D-1 guys than he has, but the reality is that doesn’t make all that much difference. 

 

Ask McDermott the high school coach if he likes were he is right now, and I’m sure he’ll say, “Absolutely.”  Ask him, the pro coach, and he'll say, "Absolutely."

 

I like what Beane has done since the end of the last season, and I’m looking forward to the 2024.  The Bills will be in the middle of the contest for the Lombardi. 

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

 

 

Hey Billy Shaw - Do you remember renting our families house in Clarence for the 1968 season? My father took a sabbatical that fall - I was 4 - but I remember you as the largest man I ever saw;)!! 

[Rockinon]

18 hours ago, Lost said:

I woulda rather ran our RB room back with Cook/Ty Johnson and using that 4th rd pick on another WR.   As it is it seems like we're putting an awful lot of stock into Coleman devolping into a #1 receiver this season and Shakir into a number 2.  Id like a little more insurance than that.

Our #1 receiver might end up being Kincaid.

[Sweats]

1 hour ago, SoTier said:

 

Sadly, I think you might be right.   The Diggs we saw on the field and along the sidelines in the second half of last season wasn't the Stefon Diggs whom Bills fans cheered for the previous three seasons.  Maybe he was hampered by some nagging injury that was never revealed or maybe he just slowed down enough that he couldn't be what he was before.  In either case, his frustration showed, and maybe in a new situation, he can regain some of his previous form.

 

 

 

 

 

My feeling is that the coaching staff just decided to not make him the showcase and focal point of our O anymore and rely primarily on other guys to fill that role, which had proven that we didn't need Diggs at the backend of last season. I'm sure Diggs wasn't happy about this, and it affected his attitude, which in turn affected his play.

 

.......my opinion only.

[Rockinon]

1 hour ago, Mat68 said:

I do not expect Samuel to take over that role.  I think its likely he sees more volume than he has at any point in his career.  I think the targets go Kincaid, Shakir, Samuel, Coleman and Cook.  Coleman may move up that list but I think Kincaid and Shakir will be the early driving forces.  
 

Everyone bringing up analytics with Coleman but want to ignore it when explaining the decisions made this offseason in the wr room.  The most effective pass catchers in 23 for Buffalo were Kincaid, Shakir and Cook.  What changed midway through the season?  They moved targets away from Diggs, Davis and Knox to Shakir, Kincaid and Cook.  
 

Coleman out of the box will take the Davis role and similar targets maybe a tick less but more efficient catch rate.  They building off last year but upgrading the complimentary pieces.

This is very close to what I've been thinking. I think the offense figured some things out toward the end of the season and will only get better from here. There were all ready some young play makers on offense last year. They are now going to have bigger roles.

[amprov56]

5 hours ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

Gunner I like most of what you post.  But don’t sugar coat it.  Diggs was pretty bad the second half of last season.  He could not get open down the field.  He was dropping passes and looked disinterested. 
 

I think he is pretty much done.  A lot of guys have their day.  But he isn’t balling out til he is 35 like a Larry Fitzgerald Jerry Rice or Tony Gonzalez.  He was excellent for awhile, but not nearly in that pantheon.    
 

The Bills did great to dump him on Houston for a 2nd round pick.  

Thank you great post Bill Polian once said the Buffalo Bills historically hang on to players on the downward slope simply because they are fan favorites. Sammy Watkins caused an emotional breakdown among many much like Diggs! Great post 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, TH3 said:

Hey Billy Shaw - Do you remember renting our families house in Clarence for the 1968 season? My father took a sabbatical that fall - I was 4 - but I remember you as the largest man I ever saw;)!! 

Sorry, I am not Billy Shaw.  I picked the name to honor Robert Shaw and the movie he made in 1966, A Man for All Seasons.  

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, harmonkillebrew said:

It feels more like we're treading water, rather than improving. The offense improved a bit when we ran more under Brady and Kincaid and Shakir stepped up for sure, but it didn't change the end result in the playoffs.  Now you take away two primary threats from before - Diggs and Davis - and Kincaid and Shakir will get more attention. Will Samuel and Coleman make up the difference?  There will be no real outside threat and I imagine teams will quickly sniff that out and our Offense will stagnate due to the lack of a diverse attack.  But if we can run it down peoples throats and then score TDs in the red zone at a high rate we'll be ok. 

I think that teams that believe the Bills can't get deep will be looking at the backside of Samuel, Shakir, Coleman, and Cook.   I think receivers are going to be crossing all day long, with one or another slipping deep on various plays.    

 

Someone will go over 1000 yards.  Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid, or Coleman.  Three others will get between 600 and 800.  Cook and Knox will add a few hundred yards each, and there'll be miscellaneous other guys contributing.  Allen will get comfortably over 4000 again this season.  

[billsfan89]

4 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

Sadly, I think you might be right.   The Diggs we saw on the field and along the sidelines in the second half of last season wasn't the Stefon Diggs whom Bills fans cheered for the previous three seasons.  Maybe he was hampered by some nagging injury that was never revealed or maybe he just slowed down enough that he couldn't be what he was before.  In either case, his frustration showed, and maybe in a new situation, he can regain some of his previous form.

I think Diggs has 1-2 very good years left. I think he’s gonna have a strong season with Houston playing for his last “bite at the apple” money wise so to speak. But WR’s typically fall off around age 33/34. It’s very rare for WR’s to play at elite levels at age 34. So for Diggs entering his age 31 season still is at an age where WR’s produce well but he’s nearing the end of that window.

 

Short term the Bills may have dropped Diggs a year too early but it’s almost always better to dump a player a year too early rather than a year too late. 

[TH3]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Sorry, I am not Billy Shaw.  I picked the name to honor Robert Shaw and the movie he made in 1966, A Man for All Seasons.  

Haha  ….You should have said “Yes …..I remember!”

 

Not sure Billy Shaw still alive….but he did rent our house for that season….I think they were awful that year…

[HaldimandBills]

8 hours ago, harmonkillebrew said:

I don't know what happened second half of last year to Diggs, but I don't put it on him alone. I think Brady's scheme and play calling and a lack of a real #2 were as much to blame. With Davis hitting FA, I would have liked to see Coleman added to pair WITH Diggs, not try and replace him.  Now that would have been a WR room - Diggs, Keon, Samuel and Shakir! Could have given DCs fits. 

 

But I think they probably did well to move on from Diggs. They just should have done more to address WR. Our WR room already needed an upgrade with Davis not producing consistently, but then when he left and then they also traded Diggs, more was needed. 

 

You're justified in thinking this way but I am going to enjoy the 30 million after this year in cap savings and save my opinions about this new offense after seeing how our new approach going larger at X receiver pays off.

 

I think the Bills have a clear idea about having large men all over their receiving core to disguse some offensive looks and also help in the redzone. Far too often last year the Bills moved the ball at will between the 20s only to rely on Allen heroics in the redzone. With Coleman, Hollins, etc out wide it allows us to be less predictable on offense. As a DB you don't know if you're gonna be blocked into the dirt or having to play jump ball with a 6'3 receiver whose much more athletic and talented than Gabe Davis. This will also make it more difficult on the defenses who knew when we were running or passing in the redzone.

 

This team stalled because opposing teams threw their # 1 corner on Gabe Davis who could only run two routes and had no jump ball ability. Then they'd just run double coverage on Diggs. It wasn't until the Bills worked the intermediate part of the field where things started to turn. I also believe Shakir will be one our X receivers between the 20 yard lines. Guy is 6 foot. 190 pounds. He isn't small by any means and he has become an above avg. blocker as well. I like the idea of a sustaining drive offense as well. I think the less time the defense is on the field its better for injury purposes. Our defense has been a MASH unit for far too many playoff runs.

[Shaw66]

28 minutes ago, TH3 said:

Haha  ….You should have said “Yes …..I remember!”

 

Not sure Billy Shaw still alive….but he did rent our house for that season….I think they were awful that year…

Billy's still alive, so far as I know.   I hope he doesn't mind that I use his name and number.   I chose the name to honor and remember one of the all-time great Bills.  

 

And yes, 1968 was an awful year.  So awful that the Bills got the #1 overall pick.

[HaldimandBills]

4 hours ago, harmonkillebrew said:

It feels more like we're treading water, rather than improving. The offense improved a bit when we ran more under Brady and Kincaid and Shakir stepped up for sure, but it didn't change the end result in the playoffs.  Now you take away two primary threats from before - Diggs and Davis - and Kincaid and Shakir will get more attention. Will Samuel and Coleman make up the difference?  There will be no real outside threat and I imagine teams will quickly sniff that out and our Offense will stagnate due to the lack of a diverse attack.  But if we can run it down peoples throats and then score TDs in the red zone at a high rate we'll be ok. 

I am not sure about this. The Bills scored more points against the Chiefs than any other team this past season in that playoff game. That includes both regular and post season. The offense is not Broken and I believe will be better even without Diggs because we will be less predictable. Compared to the Niners and Ravens we were the Greatest Show on Turf.

 

Our defense let us down. 

 

A healthy interior DL and back 7 will do wonders for the Bills come playoff time. Bills need to figure out how to rush the passer in the playoffs. That has been the biggest travesty for the Bills. No sacks against the Chiefs in 2021. Bengals. 2002. Chiefs 2023. It wasn't even that we didn't get any sacks. We didn't even put pressure to sniff Mahomes or Burrow. With Brady offense we hopefully have less boom or bust series on offense and more time of possession that gives our d more of a break. 

 

Look at Miami. Fast scoring offenses often put a lot of stress on the defense which leads to more injuries.

Edited April 30 by HaldimandBills