Why is it so hard for fans to admit reality?

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

3 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

 

How many of those were "true" one score games versus "name only" one score games where a team scores a garbage time TD to make it look good but never really had a chance to win?

 

Mahomes lost his last 2 one score games he played against Allen. And he had the ball last both times and didn't get it done.

 

https://jaydpauley.medium.com/is-winning-close-games-in-the-nfl-luck-6118d3d8a701

I wanna look into this but it’ll take a ton of time haha it’s felt like a crazy anomaly where the bills just blow people out when they win so frequently that they just don’t get a lot of those cheap fake one score wins where they give up a meaningless td late.  I’ve gotta try to figure out how to look into it though 😂

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I wanna look into this but it’ll take a ton of time haha it’s felt like a crazy anomaly where the bills just blow people out when they win so frequently that they just don’t get a lot of those cheap fake one score wins where they give up a meaningless td late.  I’ve gotta try to figure out how to look into it though 😂

 

Last one I really remember like that was the Browns game last year where the Bills had a big lead and the Browns made it a little closer late and lost by 8.

[BillsPride12]

I haven't read through this entire thread but I think where a lot of the optimism comes from right now is how bad the AFC looks overall.  We have just as good of a shot to get in the playoffs and make some noise as anybody.  Obviously I don't think the Bills have looked like a consistently great team throughout the season and in other years I wouldn't have any faith in anything big happening but you just can't rule out the Bills making something happen in the playoffs when you look at the competition.  One of the more interesting NFL seasons in awhile.  

[Big Turk]

4 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

That analysis looks at teams, without consistency of coach and QB and by outcomes of 3 points or less. So if one was to say does a random team with a random coach in a small sample have a likelihood of finishing a game decided by 3 points or less at basically neutral probability? Sure. The 3 points alone almost make it a defacto coin flip. I said 7 or less. Which will make good teams fall more on the right side as history has shown, just not with McD. 

 

So the Bills should be punished for kicking teams asses instead of letting them stick around more. Got it.

 

Chiefs have always played more close games when they should have blown teams out.

Edited December 25, 2023 by Big Turk

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

4 minutes ago, BillsPride12 said:

I haven't read through this entire thread but I think where a lot of the optimism comes from right now is how bad the AFC looks overall.  We have just as good of a shot to get in the playoffs and make some noise as anybody.  Obviously I don't think the Bills have looked like a consistently great team throughout the season and in other years I wouldn't have any faith in anything big happening but you just can't rule out the Bills making something happen in the playoffs when you look at the competition.  One of the more interesting NFL seasons in awhile.  

Seems like defensive lines are just dominating and offenses have looked really bad as a result.  I get the feeling at times that some of the negative posters don’t watch a lot of non bills football because this has been a trend with nearly all the contenders 

 

sf had a rough patch but they have been consistent since…everyone else though looks like they’re next letdown game can come at any moment 

Edited December 25, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Mikie2times]

2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

So the Bills should be punished for kicking teams asses instead of letting them stick around more. Got it.

 

Chiefs have always played more close games when they should have blown teams out.

It would be reasonable to assume as the competition gets more difficult the likelihood of us being in a one score game grows. At which point, we do not perform favorably . It is essentially the demise of this team against stats like DVOA. Good teams are not expected to have losing records in games decided by 7 points. That makes the burden for victory excessive. The greats show they handled these situations with winning records and sometimes overwhelmingly so. We do not. We never have, So to think this will just up and change. We have a very long history of underperforming that say it will not.

[BillsPride12]

3 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Seems like defensive lines are just dominating and offenses have looked really bad as a result.  I get the feeling at times that some of the negative posters don’t watch a lot of non bills football because this has been a trend with nearly all the contenders 

 

sf had a rough patch but they have been consistent since…everyone else though looks like they’re next letdown game can come at any moment 

I would actually put SF on a tier all by themselves right now.  That's the one team that has looked like a true Super Bowl team throughout the season even including that 3 game skid they had midway through the season but yeah there's not one other team in the league that I really trust this year and that hasn't gone through their own letdowns.  I'm at a weird place with the Bills right now with the way the conference looks.  I think they could absolutely beat any team in the AFC but I wouldn't be shocked at all if they lost to any of them either.  Just a weird season man.

[Big Turk]

Just now, Mikie2times said:

It would be reasonable to assume as the competition gets more difficult the likelihood of us being in a one score game grows. At which point, we do not perform favorably . It is essentially the demise of this team against stats like DVOA. Good teams are not expected to have losing records in games decided by 7 points. That makes the burden for victory excessive. The greats show they handled these situations with winning records and sometimes overwhelmingly so. We do not. We never have, So to think this will just up and change. We have a very long history of underperforming that say it will not.

 

How do you blame Allen for losses where he gives the team the lead within 2 minutes and the D loses it?

 

That's nonsensical. Is he supposed to play linebacker too? Block kicks? 

 

It's happened at least 5 times and I am pretty sure if I went back and looked at more games it would likely be more. 

[Mikie2times]

Just now, Big Turk said:

 

How do you blame Allen for losses where he gives the team the lead within 2 minutes and the D loses it?

 

That's nonsensical. Is he supposed to play linebacker too? Block kicks? 

 

It's happened at least 5 times and I am pretty sure if I went back and looked at more games it would likely be more. 

I don't blame Allen

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, Mikie2times said:

I don't blame Allen

 

But you quote other QBs records

[Mikie2times]

Just now, Big Turk said:

 

But you quote other QBs records

It is the easiest stat to link up with and as it relates to Sean and all of Allen sample is also his sample. I also wouldn't expect any predictor on record to be evident until as a whole the team is good. Until that point, I would agree, it's either negative or random. Once they're good, as we have been since Allen joined, I would have the expectation that more outcomes would be in favor of us just as a product of bing better along with the somewhat hidden "clutch" element great QB's display. Josh just can't overcome Sean and I really have no reason to think that has changed. I liked our defensive gameplan at KC late. But as a whole I needed way more question marks answered this year that just haven't happened and our playoff exit, at least in my mind, seems horribly obvious at this time (as much as I hope to god I'm wrong). 

[Big Turk]

4 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

It is the easiest stat to link up with and as it relates to Sean and all of Allen sample is also his sample. I also wouldn't expect any predictor on record to be evident until as a whole the team is good. Until that point, I would agree, it's either negative or random. Once they're good, as we have been since Allen joined, I would have the expectation that more outcomes would be in favor of us just as a product of bing better along with the somewhat hidden "clutch" element great QB's display. Josh just can't overcome Sean and I really have no reason to think that has changed. I liked our defensive gameplan at KC late. But as a whole I needed way more question marks answered this year that just haven't happened and our playoff exit, at least in my mind, seems horribly obvious at this time (as much as I hope to god I'm wrong). 

 

I dunno...I just don't remember many times that Allen hasn't delivered for us in those situations. The most common scenario in close losses is that he scores with under 2 minutes left to give the Bills the lead and the team blows it.

 

Even in the Minnesota game where he lost the lead late with that idiotic fumble they recovered for a TD with under a minute left he drove them down to kick the thing FG.

 

I'm always rolling with Allen if we need a TD to win the game under 2 minutes. He has been masterful in those situations.

Edited December 25, 2023 by Big Turk

[Mikie2times]

1 minute ago, Big Turk said:

 

I dunno...I just don't remember many times that Allen hasn't delivered for us in those situations. The most common scenario in close losses is that he scores with under 2 minutes left to give the Bills the lead and the team blows it.

 

Even in the Minnesota game where he lost the lead late with that idiotic fumble they recovered for a TD with under a minute left he drove them down to kick the thing FG.

 

I'm always rolling with Allen if we need a TD to win the game under 2 minutes. He has been masterful in those situations.

I agree, which makes our sub .500 record very damning. 

[Orlando Tim]

It has probably been said but luck is when opportunity meets preparation. We are the better team, we made dumb mistakes but we're able to pull it out anyways. It was also bad luck we lost to the Pats* and Denver so sometimes luck is good and sometimes bad. 

[Mikie2times]

7 minutes ago, Orlando Tim said:

It has probably been said but luck is when opportunity meets preparation. We are the better team, we made dumb mistakes but we're able to pull it out anyways. It was also bad luck we lost to the Pats* and Denver so sometimes luck is good and sometimes bad. 

Its a pendulum in my opinion. As the forces get more difficult your ability to overcome things gets more difficult. We could do so against the Chargers. It won't likely happen in the playoffs.  Unless our ability to manage and prepare has somehow changed or improved. Which perhaps it has. Who knows. 

[MikePJ76]

Bailey Zappe and The undermanned 3-11 patriots just went into denver who had an extra day to prepare and beat them essentially knocking them out of the playoffs. 

 

This is the nfl in 2023.  If the bills are not careful they will be in the same situation next week with new england.  The bills will need super josh to win next week.

 

I bet the giants are going to put a scare into the eagles tomorrow also.

[Big Turk]

56 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

Its a pendulum in my opinion. As the forces get more difficult your ability to overcome things gets more difficult. We could do so against the Chargers. It won't likely happen in the playoffs.  Unless our ability to manage and prepare has somehow changed or improved. Which perhaps it has. Who knows. 

 

Bills typically play their best against better teams, which is a good sign.

 

Bills are 3-1 against the Dolphins, Cowboys and Chiefs with 2 of the wins being blowouts and the one loss was in OT to a Philly team we had a big lead on for most of the game with their kicker making a preposterous FG under the conditions to send the game to OT.

Edited December 25, 2023 by Big Turk

[Cash]

3 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Ok, to all flaming me, I’ll take the hits.  Lucky was the wrong word; as Shaw said fortunate would have been better.  I just want the Bills to win it all like everyone here, and when they play like they did yesterday they won’t make it.  
 

I still remember sitting with my dad and brother just shy of my 5th birthday, at the first game at the Rockpile in 1960.  I had the joy of watching them win the two AFL championships, the misery of the late 60’s and early 70’s, the joy then of OJ in his prime.  I’ve had the misery of coaches like Hank Bullough and Rex Ryan, and the joy of Lou Saban and Marv and maybe Sean.   The misery of GMs like Harvey Johnson and Tom Donahue and the joy of Polian and Beane.  The Super Bowl years, and the playoff run now with Josh leading the way. I’ve seen it all and lived it all.

 

And the constant through all this is the fan base.  All of us love our Bills even when they drive us batty.  Last night’s game drove me batty so I reacted by my post.  And other Mafia took me to task.  And that is as it should be.

 

Merry Christmas to my fellow fans.  Here’s to victory in ‘24!

Good response here. Let me just add my two cents: not all luck has to be bad luck. In the long run, about half of the breaks should go for you, and about half against you. We Bills fans are used to most of the breaks, or at least the really impactful ones, going against us. But that doesn’t mean we need to apologize or feel guilty, or in any way feel diminished, when a couple breaks go our way. 

[Big Turk]

6 minutes ago, Cash said:

Good response here. Let me just add my two cents: not all luck has to be bad luck. In the long run, about half of the breaks should go for you, and about half against you. We Bills fans are used to most of the breaks, or at least the really impactful ones, going against us. But that doesn’t mean we need to apologize or feel guilty, or in any way feel diminished, when a couple breaks go our way. 

 

As I posted up-thread, the Bills have been the 4th most unlucky team in the NFL this year...they are well overdue for some things to go their way in games .

 

Last year the Bills were 7th luckiest team...not surprisingly they finished 13-3. 2021, they were the 2nd most unlucky team...not surprisingly they found themselves in almost the exact same scenario they are in this year...7-6 and had to fight hard down the stretch to make the playoffs at 11-6.

 

In 2020, they again were the 3rd luckiest team and finished 13-3.

 

Based on trends and how it seems to alternate we very well might have luck on our side again next year.

 

Edited December 25, 2023 by Big Turk

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Saturday Night started by not being able to run the ball.

 

Punted 3x to start the game. 
 

Didn’t get the run going until the last drive of the first half. 
 

So I think that was the first half, lopsided TOP.

 

The second half was turnovers and penalties that slowed the team down. 

 

I am concerned about Diggs not being able to get loose at all.

 

Kincaid has disappeared since the 1st half of the Eagles game and with 2-games left now, he’s been limited to dump-offs all year. Where is the playmaking? 

 

Allen and the Bills reverted to playing again in that helter skelter style, Allen running around, plays out structure.

 

Things the Bills have going for them:

1. The Offensive Line continuity

2. Stable of useable running backs

 

3. Allen felt like he bailed out of the pocket early a few times, but c

 

 

Things the Bills have to work on

1. Where is the quick rhythmic passing game with Diggs and Kincaid? Couldn’t sustain drives, and haven’t seen that elite Diggs route-running paying off for several weeks now. 

 

2. Von Miller’s tape couldn’t have been good in film review. I watched him all game and he got pushed past the QB almost every play. The Bills are giving him every opportunity to turn back on.