4 drives ended by dropped passes

[Billsfan1972]

2 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

OK, but not fair to Davis to credit it as a drop then either given the stigma that exists for him, and in that game, particularly given his very significant contributions to 2 TD drives.  

 

Just sayin'.  

 

 

It hit him right in the hands, no one near him.  

 

Tired of credit being pro football player catching balls that are thrown on the money and they make the catch.  Every pass to Gabe that he caught was a perfect pass.  He went up for one, caught another a perfect sideline route and got his feet in (good for him), a good td catch on a perfect pass from Allen.  

 

Great receivers make contested catches and ones where they take a hard hit.

 

Gabe made the catches he was meant to make and dropped one he shouldn't have. 

[PBF81]

8 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

It hit him right in the hands, no one near him.  

 

Tired of credit being pro football player catching balls that are thrown on the money and they make the catch.  Every pass to Gabe that he caught was a perfect pass.  He went up for one, caught another a perfect sideline route and got his feet in (good for him), a good td catch on a perfect pass from Allen.  

 

Great receivers make contested catches and ones where they take a hard hit.

 

Gabe made the catches he was meant to make and dropped one he shouldn't have. 

 

So the last catch that he made here, for example, is a routine catch as you imply?  

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=axzo6SP7hSE

 

I also thought that his first TD catch, the negated one, was an exceptional non-routine catch as well, and one that not every WR makes.  

 

I'd like to find a video clip of that "drop," particularly since it wasn't catalogued as a drop by the league.  

 

 

[Billsfan1972]

14 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

So the last catch that he made here, for example, is a routine catch as you imply?  

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=axzo6SP7hSE

 

I also thought that his first TD catch, the negated one, was an exceptional non-routine catch as well, and one that not every WR makes.  

 

I'd like to find a video clip of that "drop," particularly since it wasn't catalogued as a drop by the league.  

 

 

Yes he threw a perfect pass to where only Gabe could catch it and it landed like a pillow in his lap.  He wasn't fighting the DBfor possession (i.e. his hands on the ball).  Sorry I have higher standards.  Great pass and Gabe made the play. 

 

The dropped pass the announcer said immediately "Gabe wishes he had that one back".

[PBF81]

21 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Yes he threw a perfect pass to where only Gabe could catch it and it landed like a pillow in his lap.  He wasn't fighting the DBfor possession (i.e. his hands on the ball).  Sorry I have higher standards.  Great pass and Gabe made the play. 

 

The dropped pass the announcer said immediately "Gabe wishes he had that one back".

 

Yeah, I remember it.  

 

Only one offical drop through five games however, notably better than last season and very much line with good WRs.  

His 3.8% drop % puts him in the company of Waddle, Aiyuk, AJ Brown, and Davante Adams.  

 

 

[Billsfan1972]

23 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Yeah, I remember it.  

 

Only one offical drop through five games however, notably better than last season and very much line with good WRs.  

His 3.8% drop % puts him in the company of Waddle, Aiyuk, AJ Brown, and Davante Adams.  

 

 

That is one stat I never get, because that was as obvious a drop as there can be. 

 

I don't dislike Davis, and happy he had a productive day, and averaging 4-4.5 catches a game would be a good start as the # 2.   

[PBF81]

4 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

That is one stat I never get, because that was as obvious a drop as there can be. 

 

I don't dislike Davis, and happy he had a productive day, and averaging 4-4.5 catches a game would be a good start as the # 2.   

 

Yeah, I'm not sure how they measure those either.  But last season it's what everyone used to degrade the guy.  

 

IMO he's having a great season. 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

OK then, from what I'm reading, to date, the answer to the question is zero, barring the K, right?  

 

Yes. I don't know how much clearer I could be on that. 

 

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

As to Groot, had his play over the first four games last season continued he'd have been not only a 1st-team, but All-Pro as well, and would have finished tied for 2nd in sacks a mere 2.5 sacks behind Bosa, 2nd in TFLs and tied for 14th in QBHits.  But he waned and went the opposite direction over the last dozen games, even in his next four before his injury.  AKA, ... didn't even approach happening.  

 

If Oliver continues his play linearly, then he'll have exceeded Aaron Donald's 2nd best season, and logged more TFLs than Donald ever logged, by 5, and will have exceeded Donald's QBHits numbers in all but 3 seasons.  Are you truly optimistic that that even comes close to occurring?  

 

While I'd be as excited as you to see this, the reality is that it's very unlikely to occur.  Oliver's had four seasons to post elite numbers and he's never come close.  Both players have been plagued with significant inconsistency in their game-to-game play.  In fairness Groot is only in his second season and did suffer an injury last season, but having said that, the phrase "injury prone" shouldn't be not of a concern re: him.  

 

And frankly, if they do, then that takes care of your hesitation regarding the requisite "elite players required to win the Super Bowl," right?   

 

In fact, given their level of play to date, why do concerns even exist then if they're both playing at elite levels?   I mean to date an "elite DT" and an "elite DE"?   That's what the going opinion here is now.  

 

 

Do I think Ed and Groot can continue at this pace? Yes I think they can - note CAN and not WILL. It is possible. Why? Because they have the talent to do it. I think Ed Oliver's raw productions numbers have undervalued his performance the past two years and have consistently said so on here. When the underlying analytics are as strong as they were eventually the numbers will follow. I also think last year he was dominant when healthy and less dominant when playing hurt. I don't see this as a sudden improvement - I see it as following on from that healthy spell he had in the middle of last season - particularly that Minnesota, Cleveland, Detroit run. Groot I think there is a bit of a lower ceiling on, but he is a very high floor player and if he can hit his ceiling throughout the rest of the year he is certainly capable of being in the conversation too. 

 

An yes, if they maintain their play level then we still have the chance to go into the playoffs with the minimum 4 elite level guys you need. I said that in my very first post on in this discussion. We have Josh, Stef, Von who is a question mark coming back and Ed and Groot who are the two who could possibly step up into that conversation. If two of the three defensive guys were to play at that proper elite level then yes the Bills can still win a Superbowl. But two guys who have proven themselves capable of that top end consistency are gone for the year. So the chances are reduced because you are now relying on less proven commodities. I don't know why you needed to ask that my views on it are completely clear in previous posts. 

 

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

So you'd give a GM 8 seasons, AFTER drafting a generational talent like Allen, who would then be 30 going into that next season, with an entirely new GM? 

 

"Starters in the NFL" isn't the standard here, by your definition it's "elite players."   Moss is a starter.  Zay Jones is a starter.  Brown is a starter.  Cook's a starter.  Davis is a starter and he's persona non grata here.  LOL  

 

We definitely have two different standards.  I would never even consider keeping a GM beyond five years if he hasn't produced a single elite player, the likes of which you state that we need 4-5 of to win a Super Bowl, particularly with a generational talent like Allen then merely rotting on the vine.  

 

To wit, if 4-5 elite players are needed, and if you want to avoid serious cap issues, you'll need to draft at least 3 of them.  One every 7 or 8 seasons will never see more than 2 on the field at the same time.  

 

Yes. He has drafted a lot of starters and not enough elite difference makers. That is my take on Brandon Beane. It has been since before you turned up here. And yes, I'd give him the chance of the current guys and one more draft class a year of being on the field before I'd really consider moving on. I do think there is pressure on him to unearth a true difference maker, but equally he is good at his job. I wouldn't give someone who is bad at their job 8 years but Beane isn't bad at his job. He is good at it, but could still be better. The overall talent of this roster is top half dozen or so in the NFL but is probably a bit thicker in the middle and thinner at either end. 

 

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

You said this;  

 

Since our discussion revolves around his drafts, how so?  

 

I include his peers as the GMs of the teams that have been the most uniformly competitive over the past several seasons, not the GM of the Falcons, Texans, or Broncos.  

 

He's produced absolutely zero "elite players" in his drafts after his very first pick of Allen, which was a successful poke-n-hope for Allen, pending Groot & Oliver.  

 

Which GMs havent produced more than a single elite player in the last five drafts of theirs from '18 to '22?  

 

And for peers," again, let's consider the teams that have been our primary rivals over the past three seasons, namely KC, Philly, the Rams, Bengals, Niners for example.  AKA, teams that we'd need to beat if we want our elusive Lombardi.  

 

 

On draft performance I have referenced to you before the work @JGMcD2's work on this on this very forum. Then there is PFF (this was up to an including 2021) and ESPN (up to 2022 but going back as far as 2012.... though it breaks down for each year). They are all trying to do the same thing... find a way of putting a value on draft performance. But the overriding theme is they all consistently have the Bills as pretty strong performers. 2017 (which totally agreed was McDermott, not Beane) and 2018 are their two best drafts - White, Dawkins, Milano, Allen, Johnson have been 5 cornerstones just from two classes. 

 

As for counts for the teams you mention between 18 and 22 I have:

 

Chiefs - 1 (Creed Humphrey)

Eagles - 2 (Jalen Hurts [some might dispute, I don't] and Jordan Maitala)

Rams - 0

Bengals - 3 (Jessie Bates, Joe Burrow, Ja'marr Chase)

49ers - 3 (Deebo Samuel, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner)

 

And what do the final two on that list have in common? Multiple top 10 picks in that time. So while I think Beane is at the lower end he isn't a million miles below his competitors. 

 

 

 

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yes. I don't know how much clearer I could be on that. 

 

 

Do I think Ed and Groot can continue at this pace? Yes I think they can - note CAN and not WILL. It is possible. Why? Because they have the talent to do it. I think Ed Oliver's raw productions numbers have undervalued his performance the past two years and have consistently said so on here. When the underlying analytics are as strong as they were eventually the numbers will follow. I also think last year he was dominant when healthy and less dominant when playing hurt. I don't see this as a sudden improvement - I see it as following on from that healthy spell he had in the middle of last season - particularly that Minnesota, Cleveland, Detroit run. Groot I think there is a bit of a lower ceiling on, but he is a very high floor player and if he can hit his ceiling throughout the rest of the year he is certainly capable of being in the conversation too. 

 

An yes, if they maintain their play level then we still have the chance to go into the playoffs with the minimum 4 elite level guys you need. I said that in my very first post on in this discussion. We have Josh, Stef, Von who is a question mark coming back and Ed and Groot who are the two who could possibly step up into that conversation. If two of the three defensive guys were to play at that proper elite level then yes the Bills can still win a Superbowl. But two guys who have proven themselves capable of that top end consistency are gone for the year. So the chances are reduced because you are now relying on less proven commodities. I don't know why you needed to ask that my views on it are completely clear in previous posts. 

 

 

Yes. He has drafted a lot of starters and not enough elite difference makers. That is my take on Brandon Beane. It has been since before you turned up here. And yes, I'd give him the chance of the current guys and one more draft class a year of being on the field before I'd really consider moving on. I do think there is pressure on him to unearth a true difference maker, but equally he is good at his job. I wouldn't give someone who is bad at their job 8 years but Beane isn't bad at his job. He is good at it, but could still be better. The overall talent of this roster is top half dozen or so in the NFL but is probably a bit thicker in the middle and thinner at either end. 

 

 

On draft performance I have referenced to you before the work @JGMcD2's work on this on this very forum. Then there is PFF (this was up to an including 2021) and ESPN (up to 2022 but going back as far as 2012.... though it breaks down for each year). They are all trying to do the same thing... find a way of putting a value on draft performance. But the overriding theme is they all consistently have the Bills as pretty strong performers. 2017 (which totally agreed was McDermott, not Beane) and 2018 are their two best drafts - White, Dawkins, Milano, Allen, Johnson have been 5 cornerstones just from two classes. 

 

As for counts for the teams you mention between 18 and 22 I have:

 

Chiefs - 1 (Creed Humphrey)

Eagles - 2 (Jalen Hurts [some might dispute, I don't] and Jordan Maitala)

Rams - 0

Bengals - 3 (Jessie Bates, Joe Burrow, Ja'marr Chase)

49ers - 3 (Deebo Samuel, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner)

 

And what do the final two on that list have in common? Multiple top 10 picks in that time. So while I think Beane is at the lower end he isn't a million miles below his competitors. 

 

 

 

Not to quibble, but Beane also had multiple top ten picks between 18-22.

[Billsfan1972]

Btw just saw the Ravens' drops on Sunday and while Jackson botched the last three minutes, some of those drops were egregious.  A few were not great passes, but since the press loves Lamar, blamed the receiver.

 

No doubt Gabe would be the surest handed receiver there.

Edited October 10, 2023 by Billsfan1972

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

Not to quibble, but Beane also had multiple top ten picks between 18-22.

 

He ended up with two. The Bills only earned one. He had to trade up twice to turn the Allen pick into a top 10 pick. 

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I mean we did sign Rapp, so I don't think its fair to say we "trusted 2 old safeties" as they did bring in more depth and help there and Rapp would start on several teams.  

 

Also, hard to fault any of Beanes decisions on the defense when after 4 weeks we were first in Interceptions, takeaways and sacks plus 2nd in points allowed.  This included being the only D that held the Miami offense in check all season.  

 

Injuries like you said are outside of his control, but even after being down those guys early, this defense still had only surrendered 11 points late into the 4th quarter while playing a fresher team in London.  So the depth and quality of the players on this team is a credit to Beane.  

 

I know you are not knocking Beane, just expanding on these comments.  

 

 

They brought better depth in behind them, that is spot on. But they were trusting their vet guys to start and it was a risk. Both 32 and coming off significant surgery. I don't think they are total liabilities by any means but they are not the ultimate get out of jail free card they have been at times in the past to bail the Bills out. They have lost a step and those who were against bringing them back have legitimate arguments to say that was a mistake. I actually don't think bringing Poyer back was plan A. I think both parties expected him to be gone. But his market wasn't as hot as he expected and it got down to a number the Bills could live with. It is to all extents and purposes a 1 year deal and they will look for a long term answer next spring.

 

Agree with your general take on defensive performance.

[Mr. WEO]

4 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Yes he threw a perfect pass to where only Gabe could catch it and it landed like a pillow in his lap.  He wasn't fighting the DBfor possession (i.e. his hands on the ball).  Sorry I have higher standards.  Great pass and Gabe made the play. 

 

The dropped pass the announcer said immediately "Gabe wishes he had that one back".

 

 

sure you do.

 

anyway, that catch at the 3 was uncontested and landed right in Davis's "lap"?  lol that's messed up

 

you just gave yourself away with that obviously false statement.   rage on, High Standard Man!!

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yes. I don't know how much clearer I could be on that. 

 

Just double-checking.  

 

 

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Do I think Ed and Groot can continue at this pace? Yes I think they can - note CAN and not WILL. It is possible. Why? Because they have the talent to do it. I think Ed Oliver's raw productions numbers have undervalued his performance the past two years and have consistently said so on here. When the underlying analytics are as strong as they were eventually the numbers will follow. I also think last year he was dominant when healthy and less dominant when playing hurt. I don't see this as a sudden improvement - I see it as following on from that healthy spell he had in the middle of last season - particularly that Minnesota, Cleveland, Detroit run. Groot I think there is a bit of a lower ceiling on, but he is a very high floor player and if he can hit his ceiling throughout the rest of the year he is certainly capable of being in the conversation too. 

 

I for one hope that you're correct, but I kind of view it oppositely.  To me Groot has the higher ceiling.  Oliver's had four seasons now to prove that he can be a consistent force.  He's had difficulty ever stringing more than three maybe four good games together, and that without all but disappearing for large portions of the seasons otherwise, much less 8 games much less a full season of even average consistency.  This season hangs in the balance as we're discussing this.  [fingers crossed]  I'd love to see Oliver turn into that beast that everyone was expecting when we drafted him.  Oliver's in his prime this season, which may be why he achieves that.  Not that it matters at this point, but Groot had a more impressive body of work in college, he played up against much bigger opponents.  That doesn't apply so much to Oliver now, but it might to Groot.  

 

Rousseau, like Davis and Edmunds, and to a lesser extent a few other players, is only 23 and in fact just turned 23 several months ago.  

 

I can see either blossoming into elite players, but I wouldn't put money on Oliver doing it at this point.  IMO he's simply trying to show that he deserved his contract and has come out of the gates swinging.  We'll see whether he holds up, but if he does, let's not forget, it's taken him 5 seasons.  The player that he's been often compared to, Aaron Donald, was already elite as a rookie.  

 

Groot needs to stay healthy.  These naggers are looking like a possible issue.  Obviously I hope that both blossom into terrors.  It would be refreshing.  I'd also like to see Beane quit drafting 21 year olds.  

 

 

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

An yes, if they maintain their play level then we still have the chance to go into the playoffs with the minimum 4 elite level guys you need. I said that in my very first post on in this discussion. We have Josh, Stef, Von who is a question mark coming back and Ed and Groot who are the two who could possibly step up into that conversation. If two of the three defensive guys were to play at that proper elite level then yes the Bills can still win a Superbowl. But two guys who have proven themselves capable of that top end consistency are gone for the year. So the chances are reduced because you are now relying on less proven commodities. I don't know why you needed to ask that my views on it are completely clear in previous posts.  

 

Clarification my friend.   

 

You have a tendency to hedge and use a lot of 'if's', 'could's", and other potential type of descriptors.  I try to nail down the expectation.  It's easy to say this, that, or something else might/could happen, but if not, etc.  It's a lot different to state one's position firmly.  

 

Even above, you say ...

 

Quote

But two guys who have proven themselves capable of that top end consistency are gone for the year.

 

Presumably you mean Milano and Jones.  Jones has never even sniffed "elite" until the past few games.  The likelihood that he would have finished the season shattering anything that he's ever accomplished in a season, and at the age of 32, is highly unlikely.  So your statement is a reach insofar as Jones goes and IMO everyone's massively overreacting to his loss.  He posted a huge game against Howell @ the Skins, but the rest has hardly been anywhere close to that "elite" status.  

 

Milano, as you realize, I said prior to the season beginning, and for reasons that we both disagree on, we'd be screwed if he got injured for any length of time.  Well, ...  

 

I pointed out elsewhere recently that even to date with him in, our rushing D is low-end, ranked 25th in rushing YPG allowed and 31st in YPC allowed.  That's unlikely to improve significantly.  

 

but if Ed holds out this level of play and Groot does as well, IMO we're much better off on the DL and we'll finally have two more elite players that Milano was, yet Jones was not.  A two-fer if you will.  LOL  And yes, I'm joking.  

 

 

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Yes. He has drafted a lot of starters and not enough elite difference makers. That is my take on Brandon Beane. It has been since before you turned up here. And yes, I'd give him the chance of the current guys and one more draft class a year of being on the field before I'd really consider moving on. I do think there is pressure on him to unearth a true difference maker, but equally he is good at his job. I wouldn't give someone who is bad at their job 8 years but Beane isn't bad at his job. He is good at it, but could still be better. The overall talent of this roster is top half dozen or so in the NFL but is probably a bit thicker in the middle and thinner at either end. 

 

Yes, you've said that many times, that first sentence.  As to the rest, we've also discussed that many times.  I fail to see how a GM can be considered above-average with the drafting track record that Beane has.  You do not.  Free-Agency is much easier since it involves established players, good GMs can pluck elite players in teh draft better than their counterparts IMO.  I don't think that there's a lot of conventional NFL wisdom that speaks to the contrary however.  

 

 

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

On draft performance I have referenced to you before the work @JGMcD2's work on this on this very forum. Then there is PFF (this was up to an including 2021) and ESPN (up to 2022 but going back as far as 2012.... though it breaks down for each year). They are all trying to do the same thing... find a way of putting a value on draft performance. But the overriding theme is they all consistently have the Bills as pretty strong performers. 2017 (which totally agreed was McDermott, not Beane) and 2018 are their two best drafts - White, Dawkins, Milano, Allen, Johnson have been 5 cornerstones just from two classes. 

 

I spent a bunch of time looking for that but could never find it.  You provided no link, so I have nothing to look at.  

 

As to the rest, you and I were specifically talking about "elite players" per your insistence that "a team needs 4-5 elite players to win a Super Bowl."  That's what our discussion was pertaining to.  So let's stick to that.  

 

 

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

As for counts for the teams you mention between 18 and 22 I have:

 

Chiefs - 1 (Creed Humphrey)

Eagles - 2 (Jalen Hurts [some might dispute, I don't] and Jordan Maitala)

Rams - 0

Bengals - 3 (Jessie Bates, Joe Burrow, Ja'marr Chase)

49ers - 3 (Deebo Samuel, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner)

 

I'm not talking about specific GMs, but the teams that are elite.  

 

KC's a bit of an odd example because they're riding the elite player performances of Jones & Kelce, but which also challenges your 4-5 elite players theory.  

As to the Eagles, I think you should include Jalen Carter who's already looking the part and playing better than any defensive player in his rookie season than anyone that Beane's ever drafted.  I mean we're talking about Oliver coming into his own five seasons in, and Groot three seasons in.  Carter's performing to top levels as a rookie.  Also, Davonta Smith who's playing better than any offensive skill position player Beane's ever drafted.  

 

The Rams, their rookie WR is also playing better than any offensive skill position player that Beane's ever drafted, but agree, but also I probably shouldn't have included them.  They were a one-year wonder that overachieved one season, but have gone 26-28 so far in their bookend seasons.  

 

Bengals:  Burrow comps with Allen as does Mahomes, But that's still more than Beane's zero, and while not elite, it should be pointed out that Higgins is also better than any offensive skill positon player that Beane's ever drafted.  

 

As to the Niners, three is also more than zero, and let's not forget Purdy, the highest rated QB in the league right now by a margin, 3rd in TD% ahead of Allen, 2nd in Compl. % right behind Allen, and 1st in Success Rate.  

 

 

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

And what do the final two on that list have in common? Multiple top 10 picks in that time. So while I think Beane is at the lower end he isn't a million miles below his competitors. 

 

You're deviating from the point, to start, and B, Beane could very easily have picked Creed Humphrey over Basham in round 2. 

 

Purdy was plucked by the Niners in round 7 as was Mailata for the Eagles.  

 

Hurts was a 2nd-rounder just before AJE.  

 

Higgins was a 2nd-rounder. 

 

Samuel was a 2nd-rounder, Warner a 3rd-rounder.  

 

So your theory above holds little if any water.  

 

At the end of the day, all of those GMs have picked better in their drafts for impact players and elite players than Beane has, apart from the QBs which all have done.  It's not difficult to be zero.  If all of our opponents this season score zero, we'll finish 15-2 and finally win that elusive Lombardi.  

 

 

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

8 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Go back a few weeks ago and most people were still saying we missed on AJE...yet here he is playing at a high level finally getting some chances to get real reps and get out from being buried.  For all we know, as the season goes on Elam may do just the same as she showed plenty of potential as a rookie last year and then got buried behind some pretty good corners in Tre, Benford, and Dane coming into this season as he still had some stuff to work on.  

 

 

Yes good point on Epenesa.    There were actually people advocating dumping Epenesa to keep Boogie Basham.    Elam is a talented player and progress is not always linear.

[Billsfan1972]

12 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

sure you do.

 

anyway, that catch at the 3 was uncontested and landed right in Davis's "lap"?  lol that's messed up

 

you just gave yourself away with that obviously false statement.   rage on, High Standard Man!!

Yes he jumped for the ball and caught it.  Wow a professional NFL WR paid $milions catching a ball.  I look at catches in traffic, where one takes a hard hit, fights the defender and makes the catch, reaches across his body and catches a badly thrown ball or picks it off prior to hitting the ground (i.e. Jax 3rd down conversion that McD challenged). 

 

Catching a timing sideline pass going out of bounds is what they practice every day.

 

Those were all perfect passes by Allen and Gabe made the catch.  Good for him (+ one drop).

Edited October 11, 2023 by Billsfan1972

[GunnerBill]

8 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yes good point on Epenesa.    There were actually people advocating dumping Epenesa to keep Boogie Basham.    Elam is a talented player and progress is not always linear.

 

Yea absolutely fair. The light for AJE went on mid 3rd season althought the Bills deserve some responsibility for that in that his first season was lost to a body transformation and then an adjustment to his play style. 

 

Equally they are asking Elam to basically change his game to fit their scheme.

 

Boogie Basham meanwhile is bad at football.

[colin]

21 hours ago, Tisker A Tasker said:

Dropping passes is what happens when you're sleepy.

 

so are injuries.

 

i read something -- a lack of sleep is like a 200+% increase factor for injuries.

[GunnerBill]

9 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Just double-checking.  

 

 

 

I for one hope that you're correct, but I kind of view it oppositely.  To me Groot has the higher ceiling.  Oliver's had four seasons now to prove that he can be a consistent force.  He's had difficulty ever stringing more than three maybe four good games together, and that without all but disappearing for large portions of the seasons otherwise, much less 8 games much less a full season of even average consistency.  This season hangs in the balance as we're discussing this.  [fingers crossed]  I'd love to see Oliver turn into that beast that everyone was expecting when we drafted him.  Oliver's in his prime this season, which may be why he achieves that.  Not that it matters at this point, but Groot had a more impressive body of work in college, he played up against much bigger opponents.  That doesn't apply so much to Oliver now, but it might to Groot.  

 

Ed Oliver was a BEAST in college. Thinking otherwise means you never watched him. The level of competition point is fair, Groot played in the SEC but Ed was dominant against his competition. While I recognise his career has had some inconsistency - good as a rookie, disappointing but playing out of position as a 2nd year player, up and down year 3.... he was very consistent when he was healthy last year though. Since the start of last season whenever Ed Oliver has been healthy he has been a game wrecker. By the end of last season he was held together by sticky tape.

 

9 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

You have a tendency to hedge and use a lot of 'if's', 'could's", and other potential type of descriptors.  I try to nail down the expectation.  It's easy to say this, that, or something else might/could happen, but if not, etc.  It's a lot different to state one's position firmly.  

 

 

I don't think that is hedging I think it is being adult about it and recognising there are a range of possible outcomes. If you want a prediction - fine - then so long as he stays healthy I think by the end of the year Ed O will be right on the cusp and the conversation will be "he has had an elite season but is one season enough to say he is an elite player?" and Groot I think will have the best production numbers of his career in terms of pressures and sacks but won't be in the elite level conversation just yet.  

 

9 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Presumably you mean Milano and Jones.  Jones has never even sniffed "elite" until the past few games.  The likelihood that he would have finished the season shattering anything that he's ever accomplished in a season, and at the age of 32, is highly unlikely.  So your statement is a reach insofar as Jones goes and IMO everyone's massively overreacting to his loss.  He posted a huge game against Howell @ the Skins, but the rest has hardly been anywhere close to that "elite" status.  

 

Milano, as you realize, I said prior to the season beginning, and for reasons that we both disagree on, we'd be screwed if he got injured for any length of time.  Well, ...  

 

I pointed out elsewhere recently that even to date with him in, our rushing D is low-end, ranked 25th in rushing YPG allowed and 31st in YPC allowed.  That's unlikely to improve significantly.  

 

but if Ed holds out this level of play and Groot does as well, IMO we're much better off on the DL and we'll finally have two more elite players that Milano was, yet Jones was not.  A two-fer if you will.  LOL  And yes, I'm joking.  

 

No - Milano and White. And we didn't disagree at all on Milano pre-season. You keep accusing me of being one of the "linebacker will be alright" crowd I wasn't. I was in the "MLB is a liability on this team" crowd. I'm just big enough to say through 5 games Bernard has absolutely proved me wrong. And even on Sunday after Milano went down he was very good - ESPECIALLY against the run. I think WILL linebacker is very likely a weakness on this team now unless Williams can really get going quickly. 

 

9 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Yes, you've said that many times, that first sentence.  As to the rest, we've also discussed that many times.  I fail to see how a GM can be considered above-average with the drafting track record that Beane has.  You do not.  Free-Agency is much easier since it involves established players, good GMs can pluck elite players in teh draft better than their counterparts IMO.  I don't think that there's a lot of conventional NFL wisdom that speaks to the contrary however.  

 

Because Beane's draft record is better than average overall. Not many busts in 6 drafts. Not enough elite players though, on that we agree. You have to factor in stars, but drafting isn't only about stars. It is about having enough guys that can be solid starters in the NFL and enough people who can play roles to fill out your roster and he has been above average at finding both of those. A tick below in finding stars. 

 

9 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

 

As to the rest, you and I were specifically talking about "elite players" per your insistence that "a team needs 4-5 elite players to win a Super Bowl."  That's what our discussion was pertaining to.  So let's stick to that.  

 

I am sticking to that but that isn't the only way to judge a GM.

 

9 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

I'm not talking about specific GMs, but the teams that are elite.  

 

KC's a bit of an odd example because they're riding the elite player performances of Jones & Kelce, but which also challenges your 4-5 elite players theory.  

 

Mahomes, Jones, Kelce (all drafted by Dorsey, though Mahomes was Veach in all but name) Humphrey and Joe Thuney who they signed as a FA. 

 

9 hours ago, PBF81 said:

As to the Eagles, I think you should include Jalen Carter who's already looking the part and playing better than any defensive player in his rookie season than anyone that Beane's ever drafted.  I mean we're talking about Oliver coming into his own five seasons in, and Groot three seasons in.  Carter's performing to top levels as a rookie.  Also, Davonta Smith who's playing better than any offensive skill position player Beane's ever drafted.  

 

Carter has been very good but again I'm not calling a player elite based on 5 games. I think he is a stud though and by the end of the year we may well be talking about him as elite. Smith is a good WR2. He is really a 1B. But the best receiver on that team, as the best receiver on this team, came via trade. AJ Brown is elite. 

 

9 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

The Rams, their rookie WR is also playing better than any offensive skill position player that Beane's ever drafted, but agree, but also I probably shouldn't have included them.  They were a one-year wonder that overachieved one season, but have gone 26-28 so far in their bookend seasons.  

 

And they did not build their team through the draft basically AT ALL. 

 

9 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Bengals:  Burrow comps with Allen as does Mahomes, But that's still more than Beane's zero, and while not elite, it should be pointed out that Higgins is also better than any offensive skill positon player that Beane's ever drafted.  

 

Higgins like Smith is a 1B. I was a bit fan of him coming out. He's the guy I'd have taken if we didn't trade for Diggs. I think he will prove a good #1 somewhere next year but I don't think he is elite. 

 

9 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

As to the Niners, three is also more than zero, and let's not forget Purdy, the highest rated QB in the league right now by a margin, 3rd in TD% ahead of Allen, 2nd in Compl. % right behind Allen, and 1st in Success Rate.  

 

When I watch Brock Purdy I don't see an elite QB. I think he is good, but at the moment I think the elite is Kyle's offense not Brock Purdy. 

 

9 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

 

 

You're deviating from the point, to start, and B, Beane could very easily have picked Creed Humphrey over Basham in round 2. 

 

At the end of the day, all of those GMs have picked better in their drafts for impact players and elite players than Beane has, apart from the QBs which all have done.  It's not difficult to be zero.  If all of our opponents this season score zero, we'll finish 15-2 and finally win that elusive Lombardi.  

 

Beane could have drafted elite players outside round 1. No argument there. His second round picks in particular haven't been great. I mean all of them haven't. I gave you the numbers. Some have, some haven't. But it is by 1 or 2 players. Beane needs another major hit soon though. I completely agree. 

 

I think what this comes down to is you'd be much more trigger happy in terms of firings than I would. That is your prerogative. I do think there is some level of pressure on Beane to come up with more true elite difference makers. Stef, Matt and Tre are all in their late 20s. Tre is now off a second bad injury. Matt is going to be coming off one too. He needs an Ed Oliver, Greg Rousseau, AJ Epenesa, Dalton Kincaid, James Cook, O'Cyrus Torrence, Terell Bernard to really hit. Otherwise in 2/3 years we might be looking and saying this team is Josh and not much else. 

[Billsfan1972]

What do all these comments have to do with 4 dropped passes, which was the Thread.  

 

Not even reading them, but the last 3-4 pages and nary a mention.

 

I keep clicking on expecting to see a comment on them and it is I think well thought out responses and a # of other things, but not the passes dropped.

 

BTW I don't think officially any were called drops.  The broadcast didn't show replays of the Knox drop (was it one or just great coverage).  The Cook one was not an easy pass and again maybe one replay, and certainly catchable.  The Gabe one was a very easy pass to catch imo and right in his hands and lead him perfectly.  

 

Start a new thread. 

[Mr. WEO]

1 minute ago, Billsfan1972 said:

What do all these comments have to do with 4 dropped passes, which was the Thread.  

 

Not even reading them, but the last 3-4 pages and nary a mention.

 

I keep clicking on expecting to see a comment on them and it is I think well thought out responses and a # of other things, but not the passes dropped.

 

BTW I don't think officially any were called drops.  The broadcast didn't show replays of the Knox drop (was it one or just great coverage).  The Cook one was not an easy pass and again maybe one replay, and certainly catchable.  The Gabe one was a very easy pass to catch imo and right in his hands and lead him perfectly.  

 

Start a new thread. 

 

You guys ran out of dumb Gabe Davis takes so people moved on...