Jordan Palmer on Allen - It’s more about the loss Brian Daboll, who Bellicheck says is elite

[NewEra]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think that graph particularly helps your case @Beck Water. It shows Josh has had 7 multiple INT games in the 20 Dorsey has been OC. To count back the previous 7 times that he threw multiple picks is 51 games and takes you to the Pats meltdown at the start of his second season. 

 

Now I will caveat that point with I don't think all of this on Dorsey or that Dorsey is terrible. I have some concerns over him but I don't think Monday was on him. I don't think that the majority of the blame for Josh's dip since the middle of last year belongs with Dorsey either, though I do think there are schematic things that we need to look at and focus on. I do think at times he has lacked a bit of creativity and his offense is a bit bland. That said, nor is Brian Daboll a genius. I do think he is a very good OC and he got way too much stick when he was here... but this isn't as simple as Daboll = good; Dorsey = bad. There is a lot more too it and I think there is some revisionist history going on here. 

@Beck Water seems to be the consensus that current 17 is not the same as 17 under Daboll.  
 

That was the point you were contending with me.  I said “Right…. But let’s not act like the current Josh allen is the same josh allen we saw under Daboll”. Where you replied with “isn’t he” and posted stats. I said watch the game, it’s obvious. Then more stats.  And stats. Watch the game.  His QB play has slipped over the last 13 games.  
 

again…..I’m not saying that Dorsey is the reason, but it’s his job to figure out how to get better results.  He’s got 16ish games to do so

[PatsFanNH]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

He does, look at Bills record last 6 year

 

FOH w this

I meant it more like a question. I did not know if he did or did not do it.. I was asking by the way the OP was written. 

[appoo]

1 hour ago, PatsFanNH said:

Daboll was never a OC here. I forgot Weiss lol the first one I forgot lol.

 

I have a question, shouldn’t Allen be able to run the O himself after 6 years? Or at least be able to overcome some head scratching play calls? 

I think the Peyton Manning OC thing is pretty overstated. Not even Brady was really doing what you suggested. 

The other thing is that the Bills didn't have playcalling problem against the Jets, and like most veteran QBs, Josh has checks he can goto based on looks. But that really wasn't an issue. All of Josh's problems really came down to a handful of plays with either bad choices or poor ball placement which put them in bad spots. 

[Punching Bag]

6 hours ago, FrenchConnection said:

Tom’s not going to an assistant coach. And besides, he’s already a minority owner of another team. And Fitz makes a lot more money on Amazon than QB coaches make. What Inwould do is pay Jordan Palmer the largest QB coach contract in NFL history. But then again it’s not my money. 

 

If Jordan Palmer would become Bills QB coach he could not be Josh Allen's offseason QB coach, one in which he worked out with other QBs.

NFLPA would not allow it and surprised Coach Diabolical was allowed as much remote contact as he had.

 

Jordan Palmer has a good career now which is likely sustainable for a long time and is one that he does not need to put so many hours week after week. 

 

Joe Brady was hired to be QB coach and that is what he needs to do.  Unless this position is just a place holder as it was with a previous QB coach.

 

Josh does not have the QBs with years of experience anymore - that happens when they pay you millions and millions of dollars - but if he wanted to fund help not on PS or coaching staff I think Bills would work with him.

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

Ignore my question and post artwork.

 

Oh, FFS(2).

 

That's incredibly rude and dismissive.  I gave you one pass for the condescending and dismissive "it isn't helping you much...watch the games" topped off with a political reference, but calling a graph of data "artwork" is above and beyond.

 

As far as your question:  I don't use the word "regression".  I don't consider it meaningful in the context or meaning most people here (including your previous post) appear to use it.  I already made the point "I think Dorsey and Allen should get a bit of a pass on the games where Josh was playing with a torn UCL last season", which would be (wait for it) every game after the 2nd half of the Green Bay game, until (perhaps) the last 3 games of the season where Josh said he could pretty well return to his previous throwing motion - but that takes time to re-train.

 

I was hoping we could find a common point of reference to actually have a discussion, but I guess not. 

 

 

[NewEra]

10 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Oh, FFS(2).

 

That's incredibly rude and dismissive.  I gave you one pass for the condescending and dismissive "it isn't helping you much...watch the games" topped off with a political reference, but calling a graph of data "artwork" is above and beyond.

 

As far as your question:  I don't use the word "regression".  I don't consider it meaningful in the context or meaning most people here (including your previous post) appear to use it.  I already made the point "I think Dorsey and Allen should get a bit of a pass on the games where Josh was playing with a torn UCL last season", which would be (wait for it) every game after the 2nd half of the Green Bay game, until (perhaps) the last 3 games of the season where Josh said he could pretty well return to his previous throwing motion - but that takes time to re-train.

 

I was hoping we could find a common point of reference to actually have a discussion, but I guess not. 

 

 

This all started because you called out me and rebutted my statement that current josh isn’t 2020-21 josh.  I don’t understand why you would even waste your time rebutting that.  
 

sorry if I offended you by saying you should watch the games….. but it’s quite obvious that he has not been playing QB at the same level as he was in 20-21.  You can spout off whatever stats you want….. but it doesn’t change the fact that my statement is correct.  Current Josh is not the same.  I don’t have to list stats to be right.  No footnotes needed.  The world has eyeballs and it agrees with me.  

What’s there to discuss?  The point you’re disputing is absolutely correct.  There’s no need to have a discussion about it.  Everyone knows he’s playing worse.  

 

Edited September 14, 2023 by NewEra

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

@Beck Water seems to be the consensus that current 17 is not the same as 17 under Daboll.  
 

That was the point you were contending with me.  I said “Right…. But let’s not act like the current Josh allen is the same josh allen we saw under Daboll”. Where you replied with “isn’t he” and posted stats. I said watch the game, it’s obvious. Then more stats.  And stats. Watch the game.  His QB play has slipped over the last 13 games.  
 

again…..I’m not saying that Dorsey is the reason, but it’s his job to figure out how to get better results.  He’s got 16ish games to do so

 

I don't think Daboll/ no Daboll is the difference. - and actually in the post you are responding to above, it sounds like @GunnerBill agrees with that.  Let me quote from the post you're responding to:

"Now I will caveat that point with I don't think all of this on Dorsey or that Dorsey is terrible. I have some concerns over him but I don't think Monday was on him. I don't think that the majority of the blame for Josh's dip since the middle of last year belongs with Dorsey either......this isn't as simple as Daboll = good; Dorsey = bad. There is a lot more too it and I think there is some revisionist history going on here. "

 

That summarizes the point I am trying to make.  I think Josh has had good games where he was patient and took what the defense gave him under Dorsey, including a couple at the end of last season.  I think Josh had impatient games where he did NOT take what the defense gave him, where he forced things and played like "Sugar High Josh", in the 2021 season under Daboll.

 

I think where Josh really began to be "not the same QB" was starting from the 2021 Jacksonville game to the end of the regular 2021 season.  We don't remember because he pulled himself together and played brilliantly in the playoffs (could not have played better) to end the season, but he had a truly horrible stretch of play in November and into December - again, under Daboll.

 

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, Beck Water said:

 

I don't think Daboll/ no Daboll is the difference. - and actually in the post you are responding to above, it sounds like @GunnerBill agrees with that.  Let me quote from the post you're responding to:

"Now I will caveat that point with I don't think all of this on Dorsey or that Dorsey is terrible. I have some concerns over him but I don't think Monday was on him. I don't think that the majority of the blame for Josh's dip since the middle of last year belongs with Dorsey either......this isn't as simple as Daboll = good; Dorsey = bad. There is a lot more too it and I think there is some revisionist history going on here. "

 

That summarizes the point I am trying to make.  I think Josh has had good games where he was patient and took what the defense gave him under Dorsey, including a couple at the end of last season.  I think Josh had impatient games where he did NOT take what the defense gave him, where he forced things and played like "Sugar High Josh", in the 2021 season under Daboll.

 

I think where Josh really began to be "not the same QB" was starting from the 2021 Jacksonville game to the end of the regular 2021 season.  We don't remember because he pulled himself together and played brilliantly in the playoffs (could not have played better) to end the season, but he had a truly horrible stretch of play in November and into December - again, under Daboll.

 

I also said that I didn’t think Dorsey was the difference……

 

but it’s his job to figure it out

[colin]

2 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I don't think Daboll/ no Daboll is the difference. - and actually in the post you are responding to above, it sounds like @GunnerBill agrees with that.  Let me quote from the post you're responding to:

"Now I will caveat that point with I don't think all of this on Dorsey or that Dorsey is terrible. I have some concerns over him but I don't think Monday was on him. I don't think that the majority of the blame for Josh's dip since the middle of last year belongs with Dorsey either......this isn't as simple as Daboll = good; Dorsey = bad. There is a lot more too it and I think there is some revisionist history going on here. "

 

That summarizes the point I am trying to make.  I think Josh has had good games where he was patient and took what the defense gave him under Dorsey, including a couple at the end of last season.  I think Josh had impatient games where he did NOT take what the defense gave him, where he forced things and played like "Sugar High Josh", in the 2021 season under Daboll.

 

I think where Josh really began to be "not the same QB" was starting from the 2021 Jacksonville game to the end of the regular 2021 season.  We don't remember because he pulled himself together and played brilliantly in the playoffs (could not have played better) to end the season, but he had a truly horrible stretch of play in November and into December - again, under Daboll.

 

 

 

these daboll genius narratives aren't supported by the data, simple as that.

 

Josh is erratic, he's got to get better at that right now, it's just that simple.

[Beck Water]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think that graph particularly helps your case @Beck Water. It shows Josh has had 7 multiple INT games in the 20 Dorsey has been OC. To count back the previous 7 times that he threw multiple picks is 51 games and takes you to the Pats meltdown at the start of his second season. 

 

Now I will caveat that point with I don't think all of this on Dorsey or that Dorsey is terrible. I have some concerns over him but I don't think Monday was on him. I don't think that the majority of the blame for Josh's dip since the middle of last year belongs with Dorsey either, though I do think there are schematic things that we need to look at and focus on. I do think at times he has lacked a bit of creativity and his offense is a bit bland. That said, nor is Brian Daboll a genius. I do think he is a very good OC and he got way too much stick when he was here... but this isn't as simple as Daboll = good; Dorsey = bad. There is a lot more too it and I think there is some revisionist history going on here. 

 

Well, I guess it depends upon how you see things.  I spent my professional life looking for patterns, and especially when it came to process development, trying to figure out where when and why things went sideways, a need not necessarily best served by setting out arbitrary intervals and counting the number of failed batches within them.  That could lead you to decide "we had more failed batches since Rodomontade took over as supervisor - 8 vs. 4" - but failing to see that the number of failed batches actually spiked up at an earlier time interval and maybe we need to look at what changed right then.

 

This is frankly where my point about it being somewhat ironic for someone to talk about manipulating data to make a point comes from.  Here's what I see when I look at this "artwork":

I see that there were some early "teething pains" with Josh, where he was turnover-prone during his rookie season and into his second season.  After his 16th game, which happened to be September 29 2019 vs. NWE (4th game of his 2nd year), he really settled down and cleaned up the interceptions - UNTIL November 7, 2021, most of the way through his 4th season - that was the Jacksonville game.  Beasley was playing on what we later learned to be cracked ribs from the previous week, our OL was atrocious against the Jags pass rush, and Josh was reckless with putting himself and the ball at risk.

 

So looking at this as a process developer, I would say something changed for the better on September 29, 2019.  We know from Josh that he had some hard discussions with Beane and with McDermott about changing how he played after that game.  Then I would say something changed again on November 7, 2021 - WHILE DABOLL WAS STILL HERE.  And I would start to look at what that might be.

 

We overlook Nov and Dec of 2021 because Josh got his act together and played so splendidly in the playoffs.  But I think in hindsight, that's where the pattern started.  And I personally think Josh may have to do an exercise where he climbs a ladder and lets himself fall backwards a few dozen times, trusting some combinations of Kincaid, Sherfield, Knox and Hardy to catch him.  A "thought exercise" might be prudent here.

 

 

Edited September 14, 2023 by Beck Water

[Beck Water]

16 hours ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

It's not just about adjusting to different coordinators. Josh lobbied for Dorsey to stay as the OC...

 

As @Buffalo716 said above:

"They had a great Bond.. that Brian was able to develop since Josh was 22... Brian was able to rip into him and give him criticism... Without pushback

 

What all professional football players need..  a coach to coach them

 

I don't think Allen respects Dorsey enough to be coached by him... Sure he can play under him... But he doesn't fear and respect him enough to take in coaching"

 

The respect can easily be tied to Daboll's understanding of the game and that Josh bought into and recognized that. In any part of life, when you have that mentor who is on another level and you realize that - you accept that teaching and coaching, you give the respect and it is much easier to take constructive criticism from due to that trust and respect. Once that mentor leaves, yes you learned things and are better than you were before, but are you willing to accept constructive criticism from that next mentor if they are on a level or 2 below? Personally, in my work life, I struggle with that (generally because I know more than they do LOL). There are only a handful of people in my professional life I would accept constructive criticism from, because they are levels above me...

 

Josh's work with Jordan was mechanics...This isn't mechanical.

 

Jordan Palmer in the past has talked about watching film with his QB, and in fact having film night with the draft class where they watched with Josh and some of his other professional clients.  He's also talked about putting Josh together with 'mental coaching', whatever that means.

 

I agree with you that this isn't mechanical.

 

I do understand your point about it being easier to accept hard coaching from someone you completely respect as your clear superior.

 

But Josh has talked about how much he respects and how much he's learned from Dorsey: "my career changed when he walked in the building".

 

If Josh actually can not accept constructive criticism or "hard coaching" from Dorsey and take in what he has to say...then Josh made a foolish mistake in lobbying for a man he has stated he respects and has learned from to take over as OC, and Josh is going to do him the disservice of getting his ass fired.

 

As a professional, I would have comments about your stated approach on constructive criticism, but 'not my circus not my monkeys'

Edited September 14, 2023 by Beck Water

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

This all started because you called out me and rebutted my statement that current josh isn’t 2020-21 josh.  I don’t understand why you would even waste your time rebutting that.  
 

sorry if I offended you by saying you should watch the games….. but it’s quite obvious that he has not been playing QB at the same level as he was in 20-21.  You can spout off whatever stats you want….. but it doesn’t change the fact that my statement is correct.  Current Josh is not the same.  I don’t have to list stats to be right.  No footnotes needed.  The world has eyeballs and it agrees with me.  

What’s there to discuss?  The point you’re disputing is absolutely correct.  There’s no need to have a discussion about it.  Everyone knows he’s playing worse.  

 

 

Actually your statement I responded to was "But let’s not act like the current Josh allen is the same josh allen we saw under Daboll"

For one thing, that does appear to imply that Dorsey is the problem.  If you clarify that you don't believe Dorsey is the problem or the Dorsey/Daboll transition per se is the problem, we disagree about less.

 

My point is that at times, the 2021 Josh we saw, is exactly the Josh we're seeing today.  That's from watching the games, but data support this and I believe the graph I constructed from data (Oh, excuse me - the "artwork I posted") illustrates this point pretty clearly.   @Royale with Cheese pointed out that in fact, Josh's worst INT year so far was actually 2021 and his fumbling was horrendous.  We overlook this because Josh played lights out in the 2021 playoffs.

My second point is that at times during 2022, the Josh we saw was the equal of 2021 Josh - calm, poised, able to take what the defense gave him and methodically move the ball down the field.  I gave specific examples of games I felt displayed this, including 2 at the end of the 2022 season.

 

It is pretty clear that Josh's play was worse after the GB game - that would be the Jets game, where his UCL got torn - so I point out that the QB performance picture is muddier and more difficult to sort from that point on, because of the injury.

 

So no, I don't agree that "the point I'm disputing is absolutely correct", but I likely won't be trying to discuss this with you further because you see nothing to discuss.

Edited September 14, 2023 by Beck Water

[NewEra]

8 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Actually your statement I responded to was "But let’s not act like the current Josh allen is the same josh allen we saw under Daboll"

For one thing, that does appear to imply that Dorsey is the problem.  If you clarify that you don't believe Dorsey is the problem or the Dorsey/Daboll transition per se is the problem, we disagree about less.

 

My point is that at times, the 2021 Josh we saw, is exactly the Josh we're seeing today.  That's from watching the games, but data support this and I believe the graph I constructed from data (Oh, excuse me - the "artwork I posted") illustrates this point pretty clearly.   @Royale with Cheese pointed out that in fact, Josh's worst INT year so far was actually 2021 and his fumbling was horrendous.  We overlook this because Josh played lights out in the 2021 playoffs.

My second point is that at times during 2022, the Josh we saw was the equal of 2021 Josh - calm, poised, able to take what the defense gave him and methodically move the ball down the field.  I gave specific examples of games I felt displayed this, including 2 at the end of the 2022 season.

 

It is pretty clear that Josh's play was worse after the GB game - that would be the Jets game, where his UCL got torn - so I point out that the QB performance picture is muddier and more difficult to sort from that point on, because of the injury.

 

So no, I don't agree that "the point I'm disputing is absolutely correct", but I likely won't be trying to discuss this with you further because you see nothing to discuss.

Ok.  Josh is still the same player.  My bad.

Edited September 14, 2023 by NewEra

[Punching Bag]

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Ok.  Josh is still the same player.  My bad.

 

Yes but bad in a good way.

[Reed83HOF]

46 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Jordan Palmer in the past has talked about watching film with his QB, and in fact having film night with the draft class where they watched with Josh and some of his other professional clients.  He's also talked about putting Josh together with 'mental coaching', whatever that means.

 

I agree with you that this isn't mechanical.

 

I do understand your point about it being easier to accept hard coaching from someone you completely respect as your clear superior.

 

But Josh has talked about how much he respects and how much he's learned from Dorsey: "my career changed when he walked in the building".

 

If Josh actually can not accept constructive criticism or "hard coaching" from Dorsey and take in what he has to say...then Josh made a foolish mistake in lobbying for a man he has stated he respects and has learned from to take over as OC, and Josh is going to do him the disservice of getting his ass fired.

 

As a professional, I would have comments about your stated approach on constructive criticism, but 'not my circus not my monkeys'

 

I've been busy today and haven't had a chance to hop back in here yet. 

 

Obviously this is all conjecture, part of the fun (or frustration) is trying to put pieces of a puzzle together....

 

Not that Jordan Plamer speaks for Josh, but obviously there is a closeness there, looking at who may or many not be credible or have some knowledge of a situation based on relationships with the parties is our only real avenue to try to get some insight on what's going on. As fans we also have a way of accepting or dismissing information in what we want to or not want to believe. This certainly seems to be something that is multifaceted and there is not just one root cause. 

 

For Palmer to make a comment like this, he has some level of knowledge and obviously felt compelled enough to put this tid bit out there, if any of us care to know by delving into the topic, it is up to us to try to decipher it...

 

“It’s less about Ken Dorsey & what he isn’t. It’s more about Brian Daboll. I think a few years from now we’ll all say that’s the best coach in football…

 

...

 

“What Josh benefited from with Daboll was not just the play calling but learning the game… learning the game from who Bill Belichick and a lot of other people think is one of the smarter dudes in the league at teaching the position”."

 

It's not Josh and Dorsey at all, it's giving him an elite mind to help teach him the game and to mentor him through the challenges of what teams are game planning against him as well as unlocking the understanding of the game within himself to get to that other level. When you have someone you have that level of respect for, it is easier to listen to the constructive criticism they are providing to you. 

 

I mean there is a chance that Daboll is one of those minds...

[Fan in Chicago]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think that graph particularly helps your case @Beck Water. It shows Josh has had 7 multiple INT games in the 20 Dorsey has been OC. To count back the previous 7 times that he threw multiple picks is 51 games and takes you to the Pats meltdown at the start of his second season. 

 

 

You alluded to the fire within Allen and it bears mentioning that prior to GB game, he would continue to play well after interceptions and will the team to a win. There was a drive within him which you could see in his eyes and body language. 

So, perhaps statistically the turnovers are not significantly different . But the rest of his game is not making up for them. 

[Punching Bag]

10 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

“What Josh benefited from with Daboll was not just the play calling but learning the game… learning the game from who Bill Belichick and a lot of other people think is one of the smarter dudes in the league at teaching the position”."

 

It's not Josh and Dorsey at all, it's giving him an elite mind to help teach him the game and to mentor him through the challenges of what teams are game planning against him as well as unlocking the understanding of the game within himself to get to that other level. When you have someone you have that level of respect for, it is easier to listen to the constructive criticism they are providing to you. 

 

I mean there is a chance that Daboll is one of those minds...

 

Josh and Daboll seemed to have a connection once the initial wall was broken.  

They would call each other up with ideas.

 

One other thing which changed other than Brian Daboll leaving - Davis Webb left and he was more an offense assistant that PS QB.

From 2019 to 2012 he was Daboll's assistant even running the practice in Florida.

He left when  Brian Daboll and he went to Giants.

[Beck Water]

9 hours ago, Reed83HOF said:

There certainly was a rift between him and McD and there were certainly times the offense stalled during his time as OC, I'm certainly not disagreeing with any of that, what I do see different is the mentor-mentee relationship that him and Allen had is absent and that allows those bad traits to start to surface again. Allen certainly had those bad traits during his time with Daboll as well, but Josh did appear to learn from it and limit those opportunities.

 

I agree with all this - but it wasn't IMO a binary process.  It's not that Josh never displayed those bad traits when Daboll was here - because they surfaced and resurfaced.  It may be true that perhaps that he was more able to accept hard coaching and that he was able one way or the other to be coaxed out of the bad traits and into disciplined play, better.  Or, maybe he got positive reinforcement to be great from Daboll instead of hard coaching, IDK, I just heard about a "see how great you can be" video.  Or, maybe he got both.

 

Frankly, it wasn't that intrinsically Josh recognized a great football mind he needed to bond with and listen to right off the bat.  Josh told a story about Daboll screaming in his helmet his rookie year after he ignored the play call and took a throw to the corner of the EZ that got picked.  He said Daboll screamed until he was read in the face, then calmed down and walked away, then thought about it and came back and screamed some more.  Josh needed to "bottom out" and have a terrible, horrible, no good very bad loss to NE 4 games into his 2nd season before he had some hard discussions with Beane and McDermott and made a decision to change his ways.

 

Maybe this game will serve as a "bottoming out" to bring Josh back to the same realization.  We fans can hope.

[Reed83HOF]

5 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I agree with all this - but it wasn't IMO a binary process.  It's not that Josh never displayed those bad traits when Daboll was here - because they surfaced and resurfaced.  It may be true that perhaps that he was more able to accept hard coaching and that he was able one way or the other to be coaxed out of the bad traits and into disciplined play, better.  Or, maybe he got positive reinforcement to be great from Daboll instead of hard coaching, IDK, I just heard about a "see how great you can be" video.  Or, maybe he got both.

 

Frankly, it wasn't that intrinsically Josh recognized a great football mind he needed to bond with and listen to right off the bat.  Josh told a story about Daboll screaming in his helmet his rookie year after he ignored the play call and took a throw to the corner of the EZ that got picked.  He said Daboll screamed until he was read in the face, then calmed down and walked away, then thought about it and came back and screamed some more.  Josh needed to "bottom out" and have a terrible, horrible, no good very bad loss to NE 4 games into his 2nd season before he had some hard discussions with Beane and McDermott and made a decision to change his ways.

 

Maybe this game will serve as a "bottoming out" to bring Josh back to the same realization.  We fans can hope.

I agree with all of this...

 

 

[Beck Water]

32 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

It's not Josh and Dorsey at all, it's giving him an elite mind to help teach him the game and to mentor him through the challenges of what teams are game planning against him as well as unlocking the understanding of the game within himself to get to that other level. When you have someone you have that level of respect for, it is easier to listen to the constructive criticism they are providing to you. 

 

I mean there is a chance that Daboll is one of those minds...

 

There is a chance, indeed.

 

 But again...at this point, we're not talking about honing an elite top-level understanding.  We're talking about making bonehead decisions that the man who "changed my career when he walked into the building" (Josh's words about Dorsey) should be able to talk to Josh and be heard about.

 

Edited September 14, 2023 by Beck Water