Small theory about our 1st and 3rd picks vis a vis USC

[JGMcD2]

4 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

It’s a combination of pure talent evaluation and production. Iosivas was separating on film more than Shorter was. Shorter also was playing with an all pro QB selected in the 1st round, and still couldn’t separate enough for his all pro QB to find him. That’s extremely concerning. 

Yeah, against Ivy League schools. Your point about measuring against SEC competition is fine, you’re just manipulating when it’s applicable or not. 
 

Why are you referring to Anthony Richardson as an All-Pro QB? That’s an honor given out in the NFL. He’s never played a snap in the NFL. He wasn’t even All-SEC
 

You’re moving the goalposts so much that you’re contradicting yourself and throwing around terms that don’t even apply to the conversation at hand. 

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, IronMaidenBills said:

They both run a 4.7

 

1 hour ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Mind you, they both run a 4.7 

 

1 hour ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Dawson Knox also ran a 4.59 at the combine

 

1 hour ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Kelce ran a 4.6, Gronkowski ran a 4.7

 

40 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Hayden Hurst runs a 4.68

 

Thank you for your scouting reports.

[Milanos Milano]

Just now, HappyDays said:

 

 

 

 

 

Thank you for your scouting reports.

LOL I’m just simply posting 40 times. If there is one thing I’ve learned over the years, is that there really isn’t much of a difference between talented players with respect to their peers. Most talented players separate against secondaries along the same rates and space, the differences boil down to their respective QBs and coaching schemes. 

There really isn’t much of a difference between Mayer and Kincaid receiving wise, no matter what the scouts say. 

I will say that Kincaid struggled against a non ranked Florida, which is concerning. 

The fact that Shorter played with a 1st round QB and still couldn’t put up solid production is concerning. 

[JGMcD2]

4 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

The fact that Shorter played with a 1st round QB and still couldn’t put up solid production is concerning. 

I thought he was an All-Pro QB? 

[CorkScrewHill]

1 hour ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Fun fact looking at the Mayer vs Kincaid things. Mayer often time had a higher % of the rec pie vs the rest of the WRs on their team than Kincaid,  AND with ND running the ball more often. 

That tells me Mayer would have had even better results vs Kincaid had his OC game planned differently. Mayer was often featured more often, because he was clearly the best receiving threat on the team, whereas Kincaid wasn’t featured as much despite being touted as the better WR option. 

Mind you, they both run a 4.7 

In his presser (after the draft so no need to spin) Kincaid stated he runs a 4.5

[Milanos Milano]

Just now, JGMcD2 said:

I thought he was an All-Pro QB? 

Well what I mean is he was taken in the 1st round, so clearly someone thinks he has all pro potential. So if Shorter can’t separate enough against SEC secondaries with a 1st round talent QB, what makes you think he will be able to separate enough against NFL secondaries with an elite QB? 

Just now, CorkScrewHill said:

In his presser (after the draft so no need to spin) Kincaid stated he runs a 4.5

Well he never went to the combine to prove that did he? People that skip the combine don’t get the benefit of the doubt. 

[CorkScrewHill]

1 minute ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Well what I mean is he was taken in the 1st round, so clearly someone thinks he has all pro potential. So if Shorter can’t separate enough against SEC secondaries with a 1st round talent QB, what makes you think he will be able to separate enough against NFL secondaries with an elite QB? 

Well he never went to the combine to prove that did he? People that skip the combine don’t get the benefit of the doubt. 

He was injured and couldn’t participate at the combine. Why would he say he runs 4.5 when asked at his post draft presser. What benefit does he have in deceiving .. he was already picked. 
 

 

[Milanos Milano]

2 minutes ago, CorkScrewHill said:

He was injured and couldn’t participate at the combine. Why would he say he runs 4.5 when asked at his post draft presser. What benefit does he have in deceiving .. he was already picked. 
 

 

So he was injured and couldn’t participate at the combine, but we are willing to take a  player in the 1st round that was hurt enough to not participate? 

Edited April 30, 2023 by IronMaidenBills

[JGMcD2]

2 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Well what I mean is he was taken in the 1st round, so clearly someone thinks he has all pro potential. So if Shorter can’t separate enough against SEC secondaries with a 1st round talent QB, what makes you think he will be able to separate enough against NFL secondaries with an elite QB? 

If Andrei Iosivas has never separated against SEC secondaries, what makes you think he will be able to separate enough against NFL secondaries? It’s not like the man played in another Power 5 conference. 
 

I know, I know… Stetson, Lehigh, Columbia, Lafayette, Brown, Harvard, Cornell, Dartmouth, Yale and Penn are likely a tougher defensive opponent than teams that Shorter played this year like #33 defense Tennessee (7/155), #1 defense Georgia (3/66) and #17 defense LSU (3/71/1). 

 

[Milanos Milano]

3 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

If Andrei Iosivas has never separated against SEC secondaries, what makes you think he will be able to separate enough against NFL secondaries? It’s not like the man played in another Power 5 conference. 
 

I know, I know… Stetson, Lehigh, Columbia, Lafayette, Brown, Harvard, Cornell, Dartmouth, Yale and Penn are likely a tougher defensive opponent than teams that Shorter played this year like #33 defense Tennessee (7/155), #1 defense Georgia (3/66) and #17 defense LSU (3/71/1). 

 

We will never know because Iosivas never had a chance to play against a SEC team. What we do know is he played in the Senior bowl practices, and still separated enough against high end talent to get him drafted this year to a very good Cincinnati team. 

Edited April 30, 2023 by IronMaidenBills

[CorkScrewHill]

3 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

So he was injured and couldn’t participate at the combine, but we are willing to take a  player in the 1st round that was hurt enough to not participate? 

Of course we are .. players get injured you don’t not draft someone just because they missed the combine. That would be weak scouting. The combine is a piece of the puzzle not the whole picture.

 

other pieces include:

Per Cbssports

“Good-hands man. Terrific at snaring passes away from his body with his big mitts. Just two drops over 93 targets in 2022 with zero drops in 2021 (45 targets).”

 

Kincaid was either first or second among 53 FBS-level TEs with at least 40 targets in targets, catches (first with 70), yards, yards per game (first with 74.2), yards per route run, and touchdowns. He was third-best in the nation in tackles avoided (16).

50% contested catch rate in 2022 according to PFF.

Also had a 50% catch rate on 10 targets inside the 10-yard line with each of his five catches going for a touchdown.

Had a 48% catch rate on 25 targets that traveled 11 or more Air Yards.

[Milanos Milano]

3 minutes ago, CorkScrewHill said:

Of course we are .. players get injured you don’t not draft someone just because they missed the combine. That would be weak scouting. The combine is a piece of the puzzle not the whole picture.

 

other pieces include:

Per Cbssports

“Good-hands man. Terrific at snaring passes away from his body with his big mitts. Just two drops over 93 targets in 2022 with zero drops in 2021 (45 targets).”

 

Kincaid was either first or second among 53 FBS-level TEs with at least 40 targets in targets, catches (first with 70), yards, yards per game (first with 74.2), yards per route run, and touchdowns. He was third-best in the nation in tackles avoided (16).

50% contested catch rate in 2022 according to PFF.

Also had a 50% catch rate on 10 targets inside the 10-yard line with each of his five catches going for a touchdown.

Had a 48% catch rate on 25 targets that traveled 11 or more Air Yards.

I never said to not draft him at all, but drafting someone in the 1st that didn’t participate at the combine due to an injury is fairly risky. Even Gronkowski participated in the combine despite his back problems. 

Edited April 30, 2023 by IronMaidenBills

[JGMcD2]

3 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

We will never know because Iosivas never had a chance to play against a SEC team. What we do know is he played in the Senior bowl, and still separated enough against high end talent to get him drafted this year to a very good Cincinnati team. 

Ah yes, his wonderful Senior Bowl performance. 1 carry for -1 yards and 0 catches for 0 yards. 
 

 

[Milanos Milano]

Just now, JGMcD2 said:

Ah yes, his wonderful Senior Bowl performance. 1 carry for -1 yards and 0 catches for 0 yards. 
 

 

It’s more than just the game. It’s the practices as well. 1A players are almost almost going to get the nod over 1B players. 

You don’t even know how many snaps he was on the field for, or his matchups while he was on the field. 

[Milanos Milano]

Shorter was also 0 Rec 0 yards in the Shrine Bowl, so yeah. 

[JGMcD2]

Just now, IronMaidenBills said:

It’s more than just the game. It’s the practices as well. 1A players are almost almost going to get the nod over 1B players. 

You don’t even know how many snaps he was on the field for, or his matchups while he was on the field. 

Now we’re talking about practice?!
 

You specifically referred to how he “played in the Senior Bowl, and still separated enough against high end talent.” 

 

Now I’m supposed to believe that separation against DBs in PRACTICE carries more weight than in-game performances against Georgia, LSU and Tennessee?

[Milanos Milano]

8 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Now we’re talking about practice?!
 

You specifically referred to how he “played in the Senior Bowl, and still separated enough against high end talent.” 

 

Now I’m supposed to believe that separation against DBs in PRACTICE carries more weight than in-game performances against Georgia, LSU and Tennessee?

Iosivas practiced against the same type of talent that is found in the SEC at the Senior Bowl. Just because he had limited snaps in the senior bowl, doesn’t mean he wasn’t capable to separating against SEC talent in games. That’s what the practices are for, to determine if someone can compete against that kind of talent. 

We will never know what Iosivas production would have been like if he was playing on Florida instead of Shorter. 

It’s basically why things like the Senior Bowl and Shrine games exist, to test these theoretical matchups the best they can. 

 

All I know is that Shorter played on a team with a 1st round QB and still had garbage stats. That’s not a ringing endorsement. 

Edited April 30, 2023 by IronMaidenBills

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

I know you do.  Do you mind my asking however, what do you base that on, beside the script draft profiles, which are all essentially the same?   Or is that it?  

 

 

He moves better, much more fluid in and out of breaks. He runs better routes and he has better hands. It is those three things for me. 

 

I didn't have a ton between he and Mayer and there are teams for whom I'd have had Mayer TE1 - basically anyone running the Shanahan scheme. 

 

[JGMcD2]

41 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Iosivas practiced against the same type of talent that is found in the SEC at the Senior Bowl. Just because he had limited snaps in the senior bowl, doesn’t mean he wasn’t capable to separating against SEC talent in games. That’s what the practices are for, to determine if someone can compete against that kind of talent. 

We will never know what Iosivas production would have been like if he was playing on Florida instead of Shorter. 

It’s basically why things like the Senior Bowl and Shrine games exist, to test these theoretical matchups the best they can. 

 

All I know is that Shorter played on a team with a 1st round QB and still had garbage stats. That’s not a ringing endorsement. 

Since I know you’re just looking at volume statistics for Iosivas and Shorter, going to point out things on per receiving snap and per target basis. 

 

Iosivas

64 Receptions

85 Targets

924 Yards

7 TD

Shorter

29 Receptions

51 Targets 

577 Yards

2 TDs

 

Iosivas played in 10 games, was on the field for 358 snaps and was targeted 85 times… roughly 24% of the time. 
 

Shorter played in 9 games, was on the field for 247 snaps and was targeted 51 times… roughly 21% of the time. 
 

On a per snap basis, they were pretty damn close and Shorter played against SEC defenses… which was your own standard you put in place up thread. 
 

You’re also missing the fact that despite Anthony Richardson being a high pick, he’s a project and one of the biggest knocks is his ball placement and accuracy… which made Shorter’s job even tougher against SEC defenses. 
 

FWIW the Princeton QB was the best QB in the Ivy League… so relative to his peers (you standard not mine) he was the best. 

Edited April 30, 2023 by JGMcD2

[GunnerBill]

It comes down to @IronMaidenBills prefers Mayer to Kincaid and he prefers the Princeton kid to Shorter. He is entitled to his view. 

 

I disagree with him on Kincaid - Mayer, especially in terms of fit here in the Bills offense. I don't know anything about the Princeton kid and really I know little about Shorter. So I don't have a strong opinion. 

 

[JGMcD2]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

It comes down to @IronMaidenBills prefers Mayer to Kincaid and he prefers the Princeton kid to Shorter. He is entitled to his view. 

 

I disagree with him on Kincaid - Mayer, especially in terms of fit here in the Bills offense. I don't know anything about the Princeton kid and really I know little about Shorter. So I don't have a strong opinion. 

 

That’s not the issue Gunner. I don’t feel strongly about Iosivas or Shorter. He can have whatever opinion he wants. It’s the inconsistent standard as to which he’s holding players to prove his point.

 

TLDR on his views upthread:

 

Kincaid ain’t as good as Mayer because Kincaid didn’t make an impact against Florida (SEC School). 
 

Shorter isn’t as good as Iosivas because Iosivas had more yards, receptions and TDs… but doesn’t adjust for the fact that Shorter played in the SEC. 

Edited April 30, 2023 by JGMcD2

[Milanos Milano]

7 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

That’s not the issue Gunner. I don’t feel strongly about Iosivas or Shorter. He can have whatever opinion he wants. It’s the inconsistent standard as to which he’s holding players to prove his point.

 

TLDR on his views upthread:

 

Kincaid ain’t as good as Mayer because Kincaid didn’t make an impact against Florida (SEC School). 
 

Shorter isn’t as good as Iosivas because Iosivas had more yards, receptions and TDs… but doesn’t adjust for the fact that Shorter played in the SEC. 

I never said that. I said I was extremely disappointed that Shorter played with a 1st round QB, and still couldn’t separate enough against SEC talent for his QB to find  him. I said Iosivas never had that chance as he didn’t play with Richardson or against SEC teams in the season. What we do know is he was at the senior bowl practices and did well against players like Rush in practice. I just find it really disappointing that Shorter couldn’t do anything of value with Richardson as his QB. 

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

That’s not the issue Gunner. I don’t feel strongly about Iosivas or Shorter. He can have whatever opinion he wants. It’s the inconsistent standard as to which he’s holding players to prove his point.

 

TLDR on his views upthread:

 

Kincaid ain’t as good as Mayer because Kincaid didn’t make an impact against Florida (SEC School). 
 

Shorter isn’t as good as Iosivas because Iosivas had more yards, receptions and TDs… but doesn’t adjust for the fact that Shorter played in the SEC. 

 

Yes that is what I was trying to say. It doesn't come down to anything more than he prefers player A to player B and prefers player X to player Y. 

 

People looking for a logical thread that ties it all together won't find one.

[Milanos Milano]

15 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yes that is what I was trying to say. It doesn't come down to anything more than he prefers player A to player B and prefers player X to player Y. 

 

People looking for a logical thread that ties it all together won't find one.

I’ve stated my reasons logically. How do we expect Shorter to contribute on this team when he couldn’t even do much on a team that had a 1st round QB? 
In a way, I think that’s precisely why some 30% of the league is made up of udfas, because a lot of talented players do things with subpar talent around them but teams are afraid of the competition talent divide. Meanwhile most of your busts are from players with marginal production with great surrounding talent. Which is why I’m concerned about Shorter. 

[JGMcD2]

2 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

I never said that. I said I was extremely disappointed that Shorter played with a 1st round QB, and still couldn’t separate enough against SEC talent for his QB to find  him. I said Iosivas never had that chance as he didn’t play with Richardson or against SEC teams in the season. What we do know is he was at the senior bowl practices and did well against players like Rush in practice. I just find it really disappointing that Shorter couldn’t do anything of value with Richardson as his QB. 

What’s your standard for his “QB to find him” ?

 

Looking at just raw stats, Florida’s leading receiver was Ricky Pearsall (33/661/5). Their second leading receiver was Justin Shorter (29/577/2). Their third leading receiver is as Xzavier Henderson (38/410/2). 
 

Pearsall played in 13 games for Florida, Shorter played in 9 games and Henderson played in 11. 
 

Per Game:

 

PEARSALL

 

2.5 REC / 51 YDS / 0.38 TD

 

SHORTER

 

3.2 REC / 64 YDS / 0.22 TD

 

HENDERSON

 

3.4 REC / 37 YDS / 0.18 TD

 

Mind you, Florida was 10/14 in the SEC in passing attempts in 2022. Sure, Richardson was a 1st round pick, but it’s not like there was an abundance of opportunity to catch the football. He was 20th in receiving in the SEC as part of an offense that was towards the back half in passing. 

[Milanos Milano]

1 minute ago, JGMcD2 said:

What’s your standard for his “QB to find him” ?

 

Looking at just raw stats, Florida’s leading receiver was Ricky Pearsall (33/661/5). Their second leading receiver was Justin Shorter (29/577/2). Their third leading receiver is as Xzavier Henderson (38/410/2). 
 

Pearsall played in 13 games for Florida, Shorter played in 9 games and Henderson played in 11. 
 

Per Game:

 

PEARSALL

 

2.5 REC / 51 YDS / 0.38 TD

 

SHORTER

 

3.2 REC / 64 YDS / 0.22 TD

 

HENDERSON

 

3.4 REC / 37 YDS / 0.18 TD

 

Mind you, Florida was 10/14 in the SEC in passing attempts in 2022. Sure, Richardson was a 1st round pick, but it’s not like there was an abundance of opportunity to catch the football. He was 20th in receiving in the SEC as part of an offense that was towards the back half in passing. 

They were in the back half of passing because their WRs are trash. When you are back half of passing and yet your QB goes round 1, that’s a major redflag against the quality of receivers. 

[JGMcD2]

Just now, IronMaidenBills said:

They were in the back half of passing because their WRs are trash. When you are back half of passing and yet your QB goes round 1, that’s a major redflag against the quality of receivers. 

You’re ignoring the fact that Anthony Richardson has MAJOR issues as a passer. He is a guy who struggled to consistently throw the football for reasons very clearly not attributed to his receivers. You can make a logical argument that Shorter was actually hurt by the fact Richardson is an inconsistent and unpolished passer. 
 

He ranked 95th in catchable rate (79.8%) and 106th in on-target rate (65.4%) among 114 FBS quarterbacks who attempted at least 200 passes last year.

 

Richardson’s improvements are centered around his accuracy. While Richardson has a strong arm, ball placement and location are a couple key elements that Richardson appears to be inconsistent with. It appears Richardson’s accuracy comes from his mechanics. When he can operate correctly mechanically, everything looks good. When he doesn’t quite execute proper mechanics, it leads to missed throws, incompletions, tipped throws, or interceptions.

[John from Riverside]

7 hours ago, IronMaidenBills said:

If this is true, then it’s pretty sad if pro scouts get sucked into individual games. When you talent evaluate, you have to take way more into consideration than just great performances at random times. That’s to emotional for analytical accuracy. 

Don’t quit your day job

11 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Addison was clearly the player we were targeting as per @Alphadawg7’s post, so I am assuming that the Bills’ scouts spent a LOT of time watching USC games. In the Pac-12 championship game vs USC this year, Kincaid had 16 catches on 16 targets for 234 yards in Utah’s victory. In the Cotton Bowl, Dorian Williams was the Defensive Player of the Game vs. USC in Tulane’s victory. Maybe it’s a coincidence, of course!

So you could be right
 

We could still work out very well for the bills. I believe the Jordan Addison is going to be a fine player in the NFL but that doesn’t mean that guys like Dalton won’t much like last year whenever we were probably targeting with Kc Duffy but ended up with Elam I believe they are both going to be fine players in the NFL

[CorkScrewHill]

4 hours ago, IronMaidenBills said:

I never said to not draft him at all, but drafting someone in the 1st that didn’t participate at the combine due to an injury is fairly risky. Even Gronkowski participated in the combine despite his back problems. 

Seriously every year talented players get drafted high despite a short-term injury that causes them to miss the combine. As a hypothetical.. if Peyton Manning had injured his rotator cuff in a manner that did not make him a risk to miss significant playing time but would cause him to miss the combine .. should he have been the top pick the year he came out .. of course!!! You are trying to draft the best player for your team not who is healthiest at the combine. They can measure your speed on the field from game tape .. the combine is just a data point.

 

As for getting him later, he was believed to be likely to go with the next pick and therefore couldn’t wait .. you can’t trade down or even stay put and get the guy the Bills felt matched what we are trying to do on offense.

 

The 4.5 speed, great hands, route running, few drops were things the Bills must have liked. 
 

in the end you can’t just compare player A to Player B based on stats alone. Michael Jordan only averaged 19.6 pts a game in college. The system NC played in limited his ability to put up bigger numbers … but he was worlds better than any other player in that draft.

[dave mcbride]

7 hours ago, IronMaidenBills said:

So he was injured and couldn’t participate at the combine, but we are willing to take a  player in the 1st round that was hurt enough to not participate? 

Legend has it that people who are injured eventually recover.

[4merper4mer]

16 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Addison was clearly the player we were targeting as per @Alphadawg7’s post, so I am assuming that the Bills’ scouts spent a LOT of time watching USC games. In the Pac-12 championship game vs USC this year, Kincaid had 16 catches on 16 targets for 234 yards in Utah’s victory. In the Cotton Bowl, Dorian Williams was the Defensive Player of the Game vs. USC in Tulane’s victory. Maybe it’s a coincidence, of course!

Kincaid was seen by some as a top 10 prospect.  Possibly top 5 if you ignore QBs.  He was generally seen as the top TE.  The Bills certainly must have been looking at TEs as one of their top 3-4 needs.   But they stumbled upon Kincaid because they were watching Addison?  Shirley.

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, 4merper4mer said:

Kincaid was seen by some as a top 10 prospect.  Possibly top 5 if you ignore QBs.  He was generally seen as the top TE.  The Bills certainly must have been looking at TEs as one of their top 3-4 needs.   But they stumbled upon Kincaid because they were watching Addison?  Shirley.

Not what I was saying at all. Come on. I just think that seeing a guy up close in a game featuring a team with a player you’re intensely interested in may have an effect on one’s opinion.  And I also said it could be a coincidence. Fwiw, I like the pick a lot.

[4merper4mer]

4 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Not what I was saying at all. Come on. I just think that seeing a guy up close in a game featuring a team with a player you’re intensely interested in may have an effect on one’s opinion.  And I also said it could be a coincidence. Fwiw, I like the pick a lot.

I’m saying I think there is a good chance Kincaid was scouted and on the Bills radar for a long time.

 

Regarding Williams I think you might be on to something but more so because the Bills were reportedly keyed in on Spears.