Bills Roster Discussion

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

I mean, I personally think it makes perfect sense. Gilliam plays limited reps in a hybrid FB role. I think he can take on both his limited role and Morris' limited role, justifying his 2 year 4.6m extension he signed last season until 2025.

 

I also think Morris is unlikely to be signed to a 53 following cut downs and less likely to be poached than Murray, if placed on the Practice Squad.

 

We also have TE Zach Davidson, a 6'7" former 5th Round pick of the Vikings, who we signed to the Practice Squad at the beginning of last season and has remained on the team through a Futures Contract. Providing insurance on the Practice Squad in the unlikely event we were to lose Morris at TE. Likewise, we have little to no insurance at RB.

 

Ultimately, in Morris, we're talking about a guy who averaged 13 snaps a game on Offense last season, almost exclusively as a Blocker, getting 10 catches on 11 targets for 102 yards and 1 TD. He played more on Special Teams, but we've also added a number of Special Teamers and retained most of our core.

 

I don't see him as irreplaceable as you do given all of this. But we can agree to disagree on that.

 

I don't see Morris as irreplaceable. It isn't about Morris. It is about Murray. I'd rather Jordan Mims from Fresno State get those reps. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Who is our back up slot receiver? 

 

We have been hearing that Kincaid is going to be playing primarily in the slot. Basically, the Cole Beasley role but 8 inches taller. Likely stretching the field vertically more than Beasley did as well I am guessing. 

 

So, when Kincaid comes out, or worst-case scenario, has to miss time due to an injury who is his replacement in the slot? Sweeney? Knox? Do they go Sherfield who is 6'1" or try Shorter at 6'4"? Do they abandon the "jumbo slot" and go Shakir, Harty or Hines? 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Who is our back up slot receiver? 

 

We have been hearing that Kincaid is going to be playing primarily in the slot. Basically, the Cole Beasley role but 8 inches taller. Likely stretching the field vertically more than Beasley did as well I am guessing. 

 

So, when Kincaid comes out, or worst-case scenario, has to miss time due to an injury who is his replacement in the slot? Sweeney? Knox? Do they go Sherfield who is 6'1" or try Shorter at 6'4"? Do they abandon the "jumbo slot" and go Shakir, Harty or Hines? 

 

Yea when it isn't Kincaid it will be Sherfield, Shakir or Harty IMO. 

[BillsFanForever19]

5 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Who is our back up slot receiver? 

 

We have been hearing that Kincaid is going to be playing primarily in the slot. Basically, the Cole Beasley role but 8 inches taller. Likely stretching the field vertically more than Beasley did as well I am guessing. 

 

So, when Kincaid comes out, or worst-case scenario, has to miss time due to an injury who is his replacement in the slot? Sweeney? Knox? Do they go Sherfield who is 6'1" or try Shorter at 6'4"? Do they abandon the "jumbo slot" and go Shakir, Harty or Hines? 

 

It's Khalil Shakir. I imagine Dalton Kincaid will get the majority of reps at the Slot. But Shakir will still get a lot of reps there cycling in for Kincaid in certain packages and playing there when Kincaid is occasionally lining up with his hand in the ground.

 

Harty and Sherfield are outside depth behind Diggs and Davis. Harty will be moved around a lot as a gadget guy depending on the package.

[hondo in seattle]

I know we're not PFF fans here, but PFF ranks the Bills roster as the fifth best in the NFL:

 

5. BUFFALO BILLS

 

Biggest strength in 2023: QB Josh Allen

There isn’t a more do-it-all quarterback in the league right now than Josh Allen. In 2022, he accounted for 46 total touchdowns (38 in the air and eight on the ground) while also putting up the third-highest passing grade (85.8) and highest rushing grade (92.8) among quarterbacks.

 

Biggest weakness in 2023: Receiver depth

Outside of Stefon Diggs, there aren’t too many pass catchers on the roster that strike fear into the hearts of defensive coordinators. Gabriel Davis will have the occasional big game, but he isn’t much of a volume guy, as his single-game high for receptions in 2022 was six, which he accomplished twice.

 

X-Factor for 2023: QB Josh Allen

While Allen is as explosive as they come at quarterback, his play style can be a rollercoaster, as his 33 turnover-worthy plays were the most in the NFL. If Allen can bring that number down a bit, we’re looking at one of the most dangerous offenses in football.

 

Rookie to watch: TE Dalton Kincaid

Despite not drafting a receiver until the fifth round, the Bills managed to snag arguably the 2023 draft’s best pass catcher — regardless of position — in former Utah tight end Dalton Kincaid with the 25th overall pick. Buffalo may run more 12 personnel with Kincaid alongside the incumbent Dawson Knox in order to get the best group of pass catchers on the field.

 

Over/Under 10.5 win total: Over

It’s going to be difficult to repeat in the competitive AFC East, but Buffalo has come out on top in this division three years in a row. As long as Josh Allen is under center, the Bills should remain the favorites in 2023.

 

www.pff.com/news/nfl-2023-roster-rankings-strengths-weaknesses-x-factors-rookies-to-watch#BUF

 

Edited May 18, 2023 by hondo in seattle

[Richard Noggin]

4 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

I know we're not PFF fans here, but PFF ranks the Bills roster as the fifth best in the NFL:

 

5. BUFFALO BILLS

 

Biggest strength in 2023: QB Josh Allen

There isn’t a more do-it-all quarterback in the league right now than Josh Allen. In 2022, he accounted for 46 total touchdowns (38 in the air and eight on the ground) while also putting up the third-highest passing grade (85.8) and highest rushing grade (92.8) among quarterbacks.

 

Biggest weakness in 2023: Receiver depth

Outside of Stefon Diggs, there aren’t too many pass catchers on the roster that strike fear into the hearts of defensive coordinators. Gabriel Davis will have the occasional big game, but he isn’t much of a volume guy, as his single-game high for receptions in 2022 was six, which he accomplished twice.

 

X-Factor for 2023: QB Josh Allen

While Allen is as explosive as they come at quarterback, his play style can be a rollercoaster, as his 33 turnover-worthy plays were the most in the NFL. If Allen can bring that number down a bit, we’re looking at one of the most dangerous offenses in football.

 

Rookie to watch: TE Dalton Kincaid

Despite not drafting a receiver until the fifth round, the Bills managed to snag arguably the 2023 draft’s best pass catcher — regardless of position — in former Utah tight end Dalton Kincaid with the 25th overall pick. Buffalo may run more 12 personnel with Kincaid alongside the incumbent Dawson Knox in order to get the best group of pass catchers on the field.

 

Over/Under 10.5 win total: Over

It’s going to be difficult to repeat in the competitive AFC East, but Buffalo has come out on top in this division three years in a row. As long as Josh Allen is under center, the Bills should remain the favorites in 2023.

 

www.pff.com/news/nfl-2023-roster-rankings-strengths-weaknesses-x-factors-rookies-to-watch#BUF

 

 

Think I agree with every point here. Weird.

 

The nuanced caveat is Allen's 2023 pass protection: 1) if he can set up in the pocket we've seen him be patient and surgical (more in 2021 than 2022?) and move the chains methodically; or, instead 2) if he gets pressured early/often (let's say, for the sake of argument, off the RIGHT SIDE) we see a stubbornly aggressive approach that often ignores simpler solutions in favor of forcing it downfield.

 

So having said that, I'd put the o-line as the X-factor. 

[Richard Noggin]

On 5/12/2023 at 5:15 PM, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Shorter will be on the roster as the 6th WR on the 53. Barkley will have the same role as last year, he'll be the 3rd QB on the Practice Squad. Josh and Kyle will be the only QB's on the 53.

 

Hines is a lock. We just gave him 4 million dollars upfront in a restructure to keep him. I see Murray being here on the 53 as we always keep 4 and to try and keep him on the PS would be to lose him when teams get injuries at RB. He wouldn't stay on the PS if playing time and more money was available elsewhere. He'll be this year's TJ Yeldon or Matt Breida "break glass in case of emergency" RB4.

 

To me, the 53 is pretty clear. A couple decent guys may be released. But "so many good players that the Bills will have to let go" and "teams like the Pats and NYG will be salivating waiting for cutdown day knowing all of the talent the Bills will have to let go" is an overstatement. 

 

To give you an idea, when I did mine, the biggest releases were Quintin Morris, Baylon Spector, and Cam Lewis - with Tommy Doyle starting on PUP. Other additions at DE or OT may change some things (making Boettger and/or Basham on the outside looking in, Basham being a trade candidate). But right now I see it like:

 

QB - Allen, Allen

RB - Cook, Harris, Hines, Murray

FB/TE - Gilliam

WR - Diggs, Davis, Harty, Shakir, Sherfield, Shorter

TE - Kincaid, Knox

OL - Dawkins, McGovern, Morse, Torrence, Brown

Bates, Edwards, Quessenberry, Boettger

 

DE - Miller, Rousseau, Lawson, Epenesa, Basham

DT - Oliver, Jones, Ford, Phillips, Settle

LB - Milano, Klein, Bernard, Williams, Dodson, Matakevitch

CB - White, Elam, Johnson, Benford, Jackson, Neal

S - Hyde, Poyer, Rapp, Hamlin

ST - Bass, Martin, Ferguson

PUP - Doyle

 

But yeah, nothing crazy being released that would have teams salivating. 

 

Solid work here.

 

The ONLY place I even flinch at all is TE, where I wonder if Morris has flashed untapped potential as a pass catcher, a skill the Bills might be emphasizing more in their TEs lately. 

 

Wonder if there is 1 fewer DL and/or OL spot which could lead to keeping Morris and/or we could see Austin stick in the secondary? He seems like a McDermott CB: long and smart. Do they usually keep 10 DL and 9 OL? I want to recall it being more like 9 DL and 8 OL tbh, but I have to check if that's at all accurate...

[BillsFanForever19]

On 5/18/2023 at 11:00 PM, Richard Noggin said:

 

Solid work here.

 

The ONLY place I even flinch at all is TE, where I wonder if Morris has flashed untapped potential as a pass catcher, a skill the Bills might be emphasizing more in their TEs lately. 

 

I've gone over this with another poster. Morris was #54 on my roster. Ultimately, it came down to a few things. 

 

One was that unless there's an injury, we don't use more than 2 TE's. Tommy Sweeney was only used in 5 games. And those were the 5 games that Dawson Knox or Quintin Morris wasn't available. Clearly, those two TE's will be Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox this year. 

 

Morris' role on this team is as an on the line blocker and Special Teams player. Last season, Reggie Gilliam signed a 2 year, 4.6m extension through the 2024 season. Gilliam started his career as a TE. His position now is a bit of a hybrid role and he's not on the field on all downs. 

 

I feel that with the amount of money Gilliam is making and the addition of a very good blocking back in Damien Harris, that Gilliam can play both FB and blocking TE on the line when Harris is in the backfield. And with the additions of guys like Trent Sherfield, Justin Shorter, and Dorian Williams - in conjunction with core ST'ers like Matakevitch, Neal, Dodson, and others returning, that we may be good on ST's as well without Morris.

 

Also, I feel like the odds of getting Morris back on the Practice Squad are pretty good. I'd be surprised if a team is going to put him on their 53 man roster after final cuts with no offseason with their team. But in the event that did happen, we also have Zach Davidson. A 6'7" former 5th Round Pick of the Vikings that we signed to the PS in September of last year who we retained after the season. If we were to lose Morris, that's pretty good insurance.

 

Ultimately, the roster being as it is, a difficult cut or two will be made. If Morris represents the toughest cut we make, that's pretty good in my opinion.

 

On 5/18/2023 at 11:00 PM, Richard Noggin said:

Wonder if there is 1 fewer DL and/or OL spot which could lead to keeping Morris and/or we could see Austin stick in the secondary? He seems like a McDermott CB: long and smart. Do they usually keep 10 DL and 9 OL? I want to recall it being more like 9 DL and 8 OL tbh, but I have to check if that's at all accurate...

 

I don't see that. 10 DL between 5 DE's and 5 DT's is the standard number for us. And if it's down to a Tim Settle, Jordan Phillips, or Boogie Basham vs. Quintin Morris - I don't see any way Morris is being kept over one of them.

 

When it comes to OL - the magic number is 9. Sometimes we carry 10. But 8 is too few for the OL. 

 

If Morris is to be kept, then the next likely to be lost on the roster would be either one of Tyrel Dodson or AJ Klein at the LB position or Latavius Murray at the RB position.

 

Alex Austin being the 8th last pick in a weak draft... I mean, anything's possible. Anyone can look undeniable and force their way on to a roster. But 7th Round picks almost always don't. His ceiling to me is the Practice Squad and the floor is being released. Between Tre, Elam, Taron, Benford, Jackson, and Neal - the 6 CB's we generally carry are pretty much all set in stone. And I don't see us carrying 7.

Edited May 20, 2023 by BillsFanForever19

[JerseyBills]

On 5/14/2023 at 10:32 AM, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Who is our back up slot receiver? 

 

We have been hearing that Kincaid is going to be playing primarily in the slot. Basically, the Cole Beasley role but 8 inches taller. Likely stretching the field vertically more than Beasley did as well I am guessing. 

 

So, when Kincaid comes out, or worst-case scenario, has to miss time due to an injury who is his replacement in the slot? Sweeney? Knox? Do they go Sherfield who is 6'1" or try Shorter at 6'4"? Do they abandon the "jumbo slot" and go Shakir, Harty or Hines? 

That's the least of our worries.  Starting with a future stud in Shakir and Sherfield 

[Richard Noggin]

6 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

I've gone over this with another poster. Morris was #54 on my roster. Ultimately, it came down to a few things. 

 

One was that unless there's an injury, we don't use more than 2 TE's. Tommy Sweeney was only used in 5 games. And those were the 5 games that Dawson Knox or Quintin Morris wasn't available. Clearly, those two TE's will be Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox this year. 

 

Morris' role on this team is as an on the line blocker and Special Teams player. Last season, Reggie Gilliam signed a 2 year, 4.6m extension through the 2024 season. Gilliam started his career as a TE. His position now is a bit of a hybrid role and he's not on the field on all downs. 

 

I feel that with the amount of money Gilliam is making and the addition of a very good blocking back in Damien Harris, that Gilliam can play both FB and blocking TE on the line when Harris is in the backfield. And with the additions of guys like Trent Sherfield, Justin Shorter, and Dorian Williams - in conjunction with core ST'ers like Matakevitch, Neal, Dodson, and others returning, that we may be good on ST's as well without Morris.

 

Also, I feel like the odds of getting Morris back on the Practice Squad are pretty good. I'd be surprised if a team is going to put him on their 53 man roster after final cuts with no offseason with their team. But in the event that did happen, we also have Zach Davidson. A 6'7" former 5th Round Pick of the Vikings that we signed to the PS in September of last year who we retained after the season. If we were to lose Morris, that's pretty good insurance.

 

Ultimately, the roster being as it is, a difficult cut or two will be made. If Morris represents the toughest cut we make, that's pretty good in my opinion.

 

 

I don't see that. 10 DL between 5 DE's and 5 DT's is the standard number for us. And if it's down to a Tim Settle, Jordan Phillips, or Boogie Basham vs. Quintin Morris - I don't see any way Morris is being kept over one of them.

 

When it comes to OL - the magic number is 9. Sometimes we carry 10. But 8 is too few for the OL. 

 

If Morris is to be kept, then the next likely to be lost on the roster would be either one of Tyrel Dodson or AJ Klein at the LB position or Latavius Murray at the RB position.

 

Alex Austin being the 8th last pick in a weak draft... I mean, anything's possible. Anyone can look undeniable and force their way on to a roster. But 7th Round picks almost always don't. His ceiling to me is the Practice Squad and the floor is being released. Between Tre, Elam, Taron, Benford, Jackson, and Neal - the 6 CB's we generally carry are pretty much all set in stone. And I don't see us carrying 7.

 

Solid post. One disagreement: the Bills didn't keep 10 DL on the initial 53 in 2022. They went with 9 (5 DE + 4 DT). So 10 can't really be standard, can it?

 

**upon further, last-second googling, while they kept 9 DL in 2022, they actually rostered 11 in 2021 (making 10 the mean, or standard, here). 11 is kind of crazy, especially given the "uneven" impact the DL was having on most games. They have also, interestingly, kept 7 WRs each of the last two seasons while the TE number went from 2 to 3. 

 

***while they did roster 10 OL in 2020, they have since kept 9 two seasons in a row. You are correct that 8 is not enough. (I might have been conflating the gameday active roster rules that allow for two additional roster spots if a team activates only 7 OL? I might be mistaken still on this point...)