Electoral arithmetic , the real reason behind "stop the steal"

[Joe Ferguson forever]

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/3830161-2024-will-mark-20-years-since-republicans-last-won-the-popular-vote-can-they-rebrand-in-time-to-stop-losing-streak/

The demographics will only get worse for the Republican party as time passes. This is a major reason behind "stop the steal" and redistricting which were unsuccessful strategies in 2020 and 2022.   So what will it take for an R to win the presidency?  How can they accomplish it?

 

"Subsequently, four states totaling 32 electoral votes that contributed to Bush topping 270 in 2004 have since become GOP Electoral College “dropouts.” Starting in 2008, every Democratic presidential ticket has won the following states (with their 2024 electoral votes in parentheses): Virginia (13), Colorado (10), Nevada (6) and New Mexico (5).

Where does the Republican Party go to replace those 34 electoral votes? Good question. GOP presidential candidates dream about turning back the clock but wake up to face this daunting data:

In 2004, Bush won Virginia by a safe 8.2 percentage point margin, but in 2020 Biden won by an even safer 10.1 points..."

Edited January 26, 2023 by redtail hawk

[BillsFanNC]

Hey look. Another commie big lie thread.

[Joe Ferguson forever]

6 minutes ago, BillsFanNC said:

Hey look. Another commie big lie thread.

so refute the article, chief.  is the math wrong?

Edited January 26, 2023 by redtail hawk

[All_Pro_Bills]

16 minutes ago, redtail hawk said:

so refute the article, chief.  is the math wrong?

I'm no expert when it comes to elections or party politics but I do know a bit about forecasting as it can be a very tricky venture.  Fraught with lots of assumptions and expectations for the future.  The writer could be correct, or not.  A lot can happen between now and November 2024.  But assuming some Parliamentary like or party line action by voters regardless of other factors is suspect.  One thing to examine would be the actions of independent voters that tend to vote issues and concerns rather than party.  Another is the condition of the economy leading up to the election.  And probably most important the quality of the candidates and how they relate to the voters. 

As an example, I'd be hard pressed to believe that Democratic voters, or Republicans, would reflexively vote party line for their party's incumbent candidate when faced with unemployment, losing their homes and cars, huge unserviceable debt, high food and cost of living, and personal bankruptcies and other hardships.  I mean, they'd have to be real mind blowing imbeciles.      

Edited January 26, 2023 by All_Pro_Bills

[Joe Ferguson forever]

2 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

I'm not expert when it comes to elections or party politics but I do know a bit about forecasting as it can be a very tricky venture.  Fraught with lots of assumptions and expectations for the future.  The writer could be correct, or not.  A lot can happen between now and November 2024.  But assuming some Parliamentary like or party line action by voters regardless of other factors is suspect.  One thing to examine would be the actions of independent voters that tend to vote issues and concerns rather than party.  Another is the condition of the economy leading up to the election.  And probably most important the quality of the candidates and how they relate to the voters. 

As an example, I'd be hard pressed to believe that Democratic voters, or Republicans, would reflexively vote party line for their party's incumbent candidate when faced with unemployment, losing their homes and cars, huge unserviceable debt, high food and cost of living, and personal bankruptcies and other hardships.  I mean, they'd have to be real mind blowing imbeciles.      

agree to an extent.  In effect, you're saying that R's need more promising solutions to serious global problems (the economy, an impending global recession).  cutting social security, medicare and a flat tax aren't going to move the needle imo.  Do you think they will?  or is it just a matter of "vote the bums out".  These issues were present in 2022 and the R's suffered historic midterm losses.

 

Personally, I think voter suppression is the best shot.   That's why the big push for R election officials.  But will it work?

[BillsFanNC]

25 minutes ago, redtail hawk said:

so refute the article, chief.  is the math wrong?

 

What do you think about states changing election laws unconstitutionally?

[BillStime]

28 minutes ago, redtail hawk said:

so refute the article, chief.  is the math wrong?

 

He can't... lolz.

 

Demographics are not on the cults side, and they know it.

 

Young people showed in record numbers and will continue to do so... Americans and young people specially, are tired of the MAGA fringe.  It's a dying party and they know it - just look at their desperation.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Joe Ferguson forever]

the other possible solution is to stop the culture wars against rising demographic groups.  divorce themselves from white supremacy.  that would be great for everyone but the haters.  just don't think it's likely.

[Tommy Callahan]

Does any of that take into account for DOMESTIC migration that shows blue states losing electoral every year?

 

But does explain why the federalist (DEMS) support ending the EC.

 

 

 

Edited January 26, 2023 by Chris farley

[Tiberius]

51 minutes ago, redtail hawk said:

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/3830161-2024-will-mark-20-years-since-republicans-last-won-the-popular-vote-can-they-rebrand-in-time-to-stop-losing-streak/

The demographics will only get worse for the Republican party as time passes. This is a major reason behind "stop the steal" and redistricting which were unsuccessful strategies in 2020 and 2022.   So what will it take for an R to win the presidency?  How can they accomplish it?

 

"Subsequently, four states totaling 32 electoral votes that contributed to Bush topping 270 in 2004 have since become GOP Electoral College “dropouts.” Starting in 2008, every Democratic presidential ticket has won the following states (with their 2024 electoral votes in parentheses): Virginia (13), Colorado (10), Nevada (6) and New Mexico (5).

Where does the Republican Party go to replace those 34 electoral votes? Good question. GOP presidential candidates dream about turning back the clock but wake up to face this daunting data:

In 2004, Bush won Virginia by a safe 8.2 percentage point margin, but in 2020 Biden won by an even safer 10.1 points..."

Only Bush in 2004 has won the popular vote for a Republican 

 

Still, I do worry about the states around the western Great Lakes. If Ohio with all it's cities can go GOP, then Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota can too. Of course, Texas can also go Democrat just like Arizona has. North Carolina seems to be trending the way of Virginia, too. 

 

The Stop the steel garbage is indeed an acknowledgement they are at a disadvantage is democratic politics. Hence, you see posters here on this site even disparaging democracy, or government and efforts to smash Putin 

[B-Man]

 

 

Do You Trust the Integrity of Our Elections? If Not, Here Are the Steps We Must Take

By Joe Fried

There may have been cheating in the 2022 midterm election, in the view of 57 percent of people recently surveyed by Rasmussen.

 

In that same survey of 1,000 likely voters, 30 percent indicated that cheating was likely. That’s where I fit in: the 30 percent group.

 

To restore faith in our elections, we need to take some simple but controversial steps:

A national standard

Many people, especially Republicans, oppose the idea of a national standard because they see this it a “states rights” issue. On the other hand, most Democrats are eager to have a national standard— but their idea of a standard is more like a plan for election organized crime.

 

How long would it take for the United States to become a fascist nation if we were to adopt some of the ideas that were recently offered in the “For the People Act,” the “John Lewis Voting Rights Act,” and/or the “Freedom to Vote Act”? Democrats have proposed...

 

• complete legalization of ballot harvesting so that a ballot could be submitted, on your behalf, by paid operatives.
• automatic voter registration for all adults (with no verification of citizenship).
• universal ability to vote by mail, for any reason.
• no voter ID requirement in states that choose not to have one. States that already have an ID requirement would be forced to weaken it by accepting a broad array of documents, including copies of utility bills or sworn statements (in lieu of ID).
• voting by convicted felons, unless they happen to be in prison on the day of the election.
• a ban on post-election independent audits, such as the Arizona Senate audit of Maricopa County’s 2020 election. Only “official” audits would be allowed.

The proposals (above) are truly scary, and this may be the reason for GOP opposition to any national standard. However, a country-wide standard is essential. We can no longer allow some states to cheat by allowing non-citizens to votes, or by allowing political operatives to cast votes on behalf of unsuspecting residents. That is why we need a national baseline of a few essential voting requirements, such as these:

 

• A ban on ballot harvesting, with a few limited exceptions for spouses or for people with disabilities
• A hard ID requirement— preferably with photos
• Mandatory citizenship verification when a person registers for the first time
• A uniform national Election Day cutoff for voting

State standards

At the state level there are several other actions that could improve the integrity of our elections:

 

• There should be a ban on the use of private funding for the administration of elections (no more “Zuckerbucks”).
• Registration lists must be updated continuously, and people should be removed when they stop voting in elections. When multiple people register at the same address, extra verification is required. (There have been instances of hundreds of people voting from a single parking lot, commercial building, etc.)
• Mail voting should be allowed, but only for people with legitimate reasons, such as travel or disability.
• Drop boxes should be legal, but only if they are in secure areas, monitored with video, and fairly distributed to all areas of the state.
• Partisan observers are an important part of election integrity and security. When ballots and ballot envelopes are processed, Republican and Democrat representatives should be given close access so they can monitor the processes. Their comments and objections should be recorded so that follow-up action can be taken.
• There should be severe penalties imposed when observers are harassed, as was the case in Detroit and other locations. (See Debunked? pages 152-54.)
• Immediately after each federal election, independent auditors should commence limited procedures (not just counting) to ensure the integrity of close elections. Testing should be performed on a sample basis, to keep costs low. Specific items tested should be selected on a “surprise” basis.
• All voters should be able to determine, via the internet, that their votes were tabulated. Documents that are not confidential should be posted online.
• States should have law enforcement dedicated to investigating election complaints. Florida provides a model.

 

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2023/01/do_you_trust_the_integrity_of_our_elections_if_not_here_are_the_steps_we_must_take.html

[Joe Ferguson forever]

20 minutes ago, Chris farley said:

Does any of that take into account for DOMESTIC migration that shows blue states losing electoral every year?

 

But does explain why the federalist (DEMS) support ending the EC.

 

 

 

good point but electoral vote changes have been slow and not immensely favoring one side: https://ballotpedia.org/Electoral_College_in_the_2024_presidential_election.  D losses are somewhat offset by R losses in W Va and Ohio and a gain in Colorado.

 

another explanation for wanting EC gone is the desire to have my vote count as much as someones from Montana or Wyoming...

8 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

 

Do You Trust the Integrity of Our Elections? If Not, Here Are the Steps We Must Take

By Joe Fried

There may have been cheating in the 2022 midterm election, in the view of 57 percent of people recently surveyed by Rasmussen.

 

In that same survey of 1,000 likely voters, 30 percent indicated that cheating was likely. That’s where I fit in: the 30 percent group.

 

To restore faith in our elections, we need to take some simple but controversial steps:

A national standard

Many people, especially Republicans, oppose the idea of a national standard because they see this it a “states rights” issue. On the other hand, most Democrats are eager to have a national standard— but their idea of a standard is more like a plan for election organized crime.

 

How long would it take for the United States to become a fascist nation if we were to adopt some of the ideas that were recently offered in the “For the People Act,” the “John Lewis Voting Rights Act,” and/or the “Freedom to Vote Act”? Democrats have proposed...

 

• complete legalization of ballot harvesting so that a ballot could be submitted, on your behalf, by paid operatives.
• automatic voter registration for all adults (with no verification of citizenship).
• universal ability to vote by mail, for any reason.
• no voter ID requirement in states that choose not to have one. States that already have an ID requirement would be forced to weaken it by accepting a broad array of documents, including copies of utility bills or sworn statements (in lieu of ID).
• voting by convicted felons, unless they happen to be in prison on the day of the election.
• a ban on post-election independent audits, such as the Arizona Senate audit of Maricopa County’s 2020 election. Only “official” audits would be allowed.

The proposals (above) are truly scary, and this may be the reason for GOP opposition to any national standard. However, a country-wide standard is essential. We can no longer allow some states to cheat by allowing non-citizens to votes, or by allowing political operatives to cast votes on behalf of unsuspecting residents. That is why we need a national baseline of a few essential voting requirements, such as these:

 

• A ban on ballot harvesting, with a few limited exceptions for spouses or for people with disabilities
• A hard ID requirement— preferably with photos
• Mandatory citizenship verification when a person registers for the first time
• A uniform national Election Day cutoff for voting

State standards

At the state level there are several other actions that could improve the integrity of our elections:

 

• There should be a ban on the use of private funding for the administration of elections (no more “Zuckerbucks”).
• Registration lists must be updated continuously, and people should be removed when they stop voting in elections. When multiple people register at the same address, extra verification is required. (There have been instances of hundreds of people voting from a single parking lot, commercial building, etc.)
• Mail voting should be allowed, but only for people with legitimate reasons, such as travel or disability.
• Drop boxes should be legal, but only if they are in secure areas, monitored with video, and fairly distributed to all areas of the state.
• Partisan observers are an important part of election integrity and security. When ballots and ballot envelopes are processed, Republican and Democrat representatives should be given close access so they can monitor the processes. Their comments and objections should be recorded so that follow-up action can be taken.
• There should be severe penalties imposed when observers are harassed, as was the case in Detroit and other locations. (See Debunked? pages 152-54.)
• Immediately after each federal election, independent auditors should commence limited procedures (not just counting) to ensure the integrity of close elections. Testing should be performed on a sample basis, to keep costs low. Specific items tested should be selected on a “surprise” basis.
• All voters should be able to determine, via the internet, that their votes were tabulated. Documents that are not confidential should be posted online.
• States should have law enforcement dedicated to investigating election complaints. Florida provides a model.

 

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2023/01/do_you_trust_the_integrity_of_our_elections_if_not_here_are_the_steps_we_must_take.html

ah yes, a wish list for voter suppression.  Agreed.  this is a strategy that will be tried.  but will it happen and if so will it be enough?

Edited January 26, 2023 by redtail hawk

[BillStime]

10 minutes ago, B-Man said:

There may have been cheating in the 2022 midterm election, in the view of 57 percent of people recently surveyed by Rasmussen.

 

Rasmussen

 

[Joe Ferguson forever]

24 minutes ago, redtail hawk said:

the other possible solution is to stop the culture wars against rising demographic groups.  divorce themselves from white supremacy.  that would be great for everyone but the haters.  just don't think it's likely.

Farley, does the eyeroll emoji indicate that you do think the R's will do this or that it's not an issue or something else?

[sherpa]

1 hour ago, redtail hawk said:

 

In 2004, Bush won Virginia by a safe 8.2 percentage point margin, but in 2020 Biden won by an even safer 10.1 points..."

 

In 2022, two years after your 2020 observation re Biden, Virginia elected a Republican Governor over the ultimate Democrat operative, Terry McAuliffe.

 

So what.

 

[Joe Ferguson forever]

44 minutes ago, BillsFanNC said:

 

What do you think about states changing election laws unconstitutionally?

I think it should be decided by the courts 

4 minutes ago, sherpa said:

 

In 2022, two years after your 2020 observation re Biden, Virginia elected a Republican Governor over the ultimate Democrat operative, Terry McAuliffe.

 

So what.

 

McAullife was a terrible candidate.  Biden won by 10. We have 2 solid dem senators 

[Doc]

The Founding Fathers took into account the dumbing-down of the population as it pertains to the popular vote, hence the EC.

[BillsFanNC]

1 hour ago, redtail hawk said:

I think it should be decided by the courts 

 

Great so you agree with the courts here then.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/28/politics/pennsylvania-voting-law-unconstitutional/

 

 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/08/politics/wisconsin-ballot-drop-boxes-supreme-court/index.html

 

[Tommy Callahan]

Thomas Jefferson Sent James Madison chest full of books about how DEMOCRACIES through history always fail and always result in being regressive to the minority.

 

Federalist (democrats) have always favored DC over state and local reps.  Republicans (first called democratic republicans, have been for states' rights since the beginning.  

 

https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Jefferson/01-08-02-0360

 

Popular vote does matter, at the local/state level. where the actual power resides. where people have way more representation. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Joe Ferguson forever]

53 minutes ago, BillsFanNC said:

 

Great so you agree with the courts here then.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/28/politics/pennsylvania-voting-law-unconstitutional/

 

 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/08/politics/wisconsin-ballot-drop-boxes-supreme-court/index.html

 

i agree with this:  https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/pennsylvania-supreme-court-upholds-no-excuse-mail-in-voting-law/

Wisconsin will do what Wisconsin will do.  so I agree. it doesn't appear it can be appealed. as I said, voter suppression will be part of the strategy to overcome the demographic disadvantage.  I don't believe it will be enough

46 minutes ago, Chris farley said:

Thomas Jefferson Sent James Madison chest full of books about how DEMOCRACIES through history always fail and always result in being regressive to the minority.

 

Federalist (democrats) have always favored DC over state and local reps.  Republicans (first called democratic republicans, have been for states' rights since the beginning.  

 

https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Jefferson/01-08-02-0360

 

Popular vote does matter, at the local/state level. where the actual power resides. where people have way more representation. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

and?  the demographics still favor D's even with the EC in place.  the linked piece is predicated on it.  so your not going to clarify the eye roll comment on culture wars and white supremacy?  it's just a meaningless comment?

Edited January 26, 2023 by redtail hawk