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2023 Offseason Primer: Offensive Line


MAJBobby
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WARNING - these do get a little long sometimes.

 

OK here we are the first position group offseason primer.  I think I am going to start with the OL.  The issue is with the OL most of the time it performs and doesn’t perform as a single cell organism.  That is how you want your OL to play as a single unit so it gets hard looking at individual players absent the group as a whole but I will work it. 

 

The way I structure these as those that have not read them before I will talk Financials, Pending Bills UFAs, on contract players, Notable UFAs (don’t spend much time here as with no idea with Tags and re-signings, but will mention some notables), Some notable draft picks from my early draft work, And then what I would do is I was the Bills.  I then add the past writeups to the end of the post via links.

 

The standard disclaimer:  I use SPOTRAC (primarily) sometimes will use OverTheCap as well for the salary and contract information.  I will also use profootball reference (primary) for stats.  Also this isn’t meant to be a complete wrap-up of the past season but more so a look at in the future, obviously I will look back at times to talk about how I see the future.

 

So here we go …

 

Financials:

Contracted players: 39 with a cap hit of $230.498M

Cap Space (top 51): -5.464M

 

Offensive Line – 5 players on contact (Spotrac shows 6 however that is because they are accounting for Saffolds void year as well he isn’t on the team) taking up 15.59% of CAP, 22rd highest in the NFL.

 

Interesting here, with only 5 players on Contract we are taking up 15.59% of the cap, so this will have to be addressed and changes need to be made, we will bring at least 5 players in, most likely closer to 7 to 9 to fill out the 90.  Good thing is there is some flexibility financially in the group that I will get to as well so you can improve the group most likely with the money that you can gain from inside the group if this is done right.    

 

Also the players that all played well under Bobby Johnson (Dawkins, Morse (not as much), Bates and Brown all regressed with Kromer as coach.  That has to be looked at and that is a lot of regression on the OL group and with two of them that have been solid players in the past for a long time, that to me is something significant to evaluate. I am not sure if there are better OL coaches out there, but this is something that needs to be evaluated as part of this position group as well. 

 

RFA

None

 

UFA

David Quessenberry – 32 years old, Cap hit in 2022 – 1.75M – Not too much to say here, was signed to provide depth was paid correctly for what he was intended to do.  No reason to beat around the bush here, old, unathletic probably can move one.  At the same time I could see him back in the similar role, league min contract depth player.  Can play both OG and OT so this is what you should look for in cheap depth players.  I think I would move on from David initially as there will be 10 others like him that you can sign post draft as the rest of you team is filled out. 

 

Justin Murray – 29 Years old, Cap hit in 2022 – 1.035M, See above, JAG depth option and can be addressed post draft letting him walk.

 

Roger Saffold – 34 years old, Cap Hit in 2022 – 6.25M, Projected Market Value 5.4M – Here comes likely he first one some might want to debate.  Me it is easy he isn’t a Bills moving forward.  He was one of the worst OGs in the league. Issue with him here is also there could be some direct pull down on the performance of Morse and Dawkins as well here.  I don’t think this is a Kromer thing because his same issues we saw are the same issues Tenn saw as well and why they moved on from him.  Which is what I think we do as well.

 

Greg Van Roten – 33 years old, Cap Hit in 2022 – 1.27M – See Quessenberry and Murray.  JAG are we seeing a trend here with the Bills OL.  A lot of JAGs employed to protect your franchise QB and to open holes in the running game.  One good thing here is can play both OGs and C (so cant Bates, will get more on that later) again like really anyone on this list so far this is the type of player you can find after the draft.

 

Ike Boettger – 28 years old, Cap Hit in 2022 – 1.187M – This is actually one that I finally got to in the UFA list I can make a case for.  Was a very solid LG for us last year before the injury.  I do not think he is a starter, but still needs time to recover from the achilles (See Kyle Williams) I probably would toss a 1 year deal around the same number he was at this year. 

 

Bobby Hart – 28 years old, Cap Hit in 2022 – 1.185M – this is a funny one to me.  He carved a nice role out for himself as the 6th OL on the field when going heavy.  Also, I think he found where he should be playing in the Inside spot.  The problem is that is really all he can play at serviceable level is OG.  I cannot pay a strict OG BU.  Needs to have position versatility to have a BU role in the NFL. But if I can keep him at the 1.1M number I probably do bring him into camp on that number.

 

On Contract

 

Dion Dawkins age 29, 6.54% of cap, 14.824M cap hit (1.958M in savings, 9.81M in savings post June 1st) – Here is my fist hard one.  What to do about Dawkins.  He regressed this year and at times it could be argued that he was the worst OL on the field.  My concern is what is causing the regression, was it a down year?  Was it the Scheme?  Was it the Slug net to him at OG?  Was it the coach?  There are too many questions here that I don’t really have answers for.  He did have 8 penalties this year which is right about up there with his yearly average.  Here is where I would make a change.  Right now with the way his contract is set up you can move on from him in 2024 with little a nice savings IF they do not touch his contract.  However at 8.855M base there is a way to save 5M here with the simple restructure and prorating out the bonus for the next 4 years (2 active contract years, 2 Void Years).  I just Don’t think this is the right player to try and get cap space on because of the questions above on what is causing this years regression.  I hate kicking the can down on players that 1. Are Hurt often, 2. Coming off a regression year and 3. Anyone over 30 not playing QB).  Dawkins is clearly in Bullet 2.  I could overlook that if he was the best player on the line, which he wasn’t that was Morse. 

 

Spencer Brown age 25, 0.58% of cap, 1.31M cap hit (880K in savings) – Rookie Deal with less than 1M in savings.   I don’t do anything here with him he had the same penalty count as a rookie and is still stiff and limited athletically in Pass Pro, though he is an actual decent run blocker even at the second level (which points to enough of an athlete) I am not sure I think this could be a Kromer regression.  He wasn’t the worst on the OL but then again never took the step he was primed to take.  That said I am not throwing the baby out with the bathwater here.  Best case scenario is he would be my Swing OT next year as I go and buy a Legit OT.

 

Tommy Doyle, age 24, 0.45% against cap, 1.01M cap hit (861K savings) – This one is funny.  I think he is fine as depth and the contract is right.  I think the OL might be better with Doyle stepping in instead of Quessenberry but then we will never know because of his IR.  Savings is under 1M too so not much there, UNLESS here is the Key Spencer Brown is your Swing OT.  Then Doyle could be cut and save that almost 900K.

 

Ryan Bates, age 26, 2.15% against cap, 4.875M cap hit (No Savings) – The out is after this year.  I think Bates is another that suffered this year with Kromer.  But at the end of the day I also think he is better at LG than RG.  I would slide him over next to Dawkins next year, however there could be an argument here too that he is better as the swing interior (which can be done contact wise) if one of your starters is on a Rookie Deal.  I don’t think they will be able to go buy 3 new starters on the OL in UFA.  I think you Buy the OT and One OG.  Then go into draft for rookies.  Spend a lot of time on the OL this offseason in the draft and freaking HIT ON THEM.  4.875M is not a bad contract for a good solid OL that can start if need be and can play all 5 positions on the OL.  I would Pay 5M to my 6th OL if they can play all 5 positions. 

 

Mitch Morse, age 31, 4.98% against cap, 11.3M cap hit (6.3M, 8.8M post June 1) – Last but not least the best OL the Bills had this year in Mitch Morse.  He was a Solid Pivot, regressed in pass pro this year and had another Concussion.  My issue with Morse is I have been screaming to plan for life after Morse now for a couple years, instead they tore up his old contract and signed a new one.  (Maybe that is something they can do with Dawkins instead of kicking the can).  His contract does offer some juice to squeeze on a simple structure probably about 3M in space.  But the Bigger savings would come from the release.  Which I do not think they will do.  It would be a lot easier to do it IF they had a young center on Roster already (could that be the Bates Slide in role).  He also has a trigger on 3/19 that fully guarantees 1.36M of his contract.  Not a BIG issue if nothing is done before that trigger it would just lower the pre Jun 1 savings to 5M and post June 1 savings to 7.5M

 

 

Notable UFAs – This list is actually quit long, right now with no contract extensions being done in the league and no tags used.  So some that I list here may not even make it.  But I will put my top 3 to 5 and then come ideas on them. 

 

OT

Orlando Brown Jr – Yeah the top in the class and no reason to talk about him cannot afford and will not hit the market.  I put him here to show you that while there might be better players I am tying to target players that would fit, improve within the financials.  Obviously it is easy saying go sign the top guy.  But that isn’t the mental challenge I want while writing these things. 

 

Jawaan Taylor, 25 years old.  This is my top target, underrated in this class because of his run blocking ability.  However, we do not run so that is not my concern at this point.  Likely can get locked up long term for about 7M a year.  So why do I want him…  His pass blocking.  He posted a 5.2% pressure rate which is very good, and still has ceiling in his play.  Fits the Mold of Physical Specimens the Bills seem to target at 6-5 330 lbs. 

 

Mike McGlinchey, 29 years old – This is probably the top,  most complete RT in the class.  I would expect this contract to be around the 12.5M to 14M a year if they move on in San Fran, which probably prices us out here. 

 

Then some better older guys like

George Fant, 30,

Billy Turner, 31,

 

OG

Isaac Seumalo, 29 years – This is probably your top OG, and likely going to get 14M a year going forward that prices us out.  However I do have some that I will talk.    

 

Dalton Risner, 27 years old – Here is about a 9M dollar a year OG.  Gave up 3 sacks, 1 penalty in over 1000 snaps in Denver.  Plays Both OG spots just as effectively so you can move Bates to LG and Risner your RG.  This would be my top target in the OL Group. 

 

C

Ethan Pocic, 27 years old – Massive tight cap space in CLE so likely hits the market.  He is the pivot on one of the better OLs in the league.  In 2022 played 800 snaps, let up 1 sack and 2 penalties.  Probably around 8M max to land him with a bigger fish in Bozeman and Bradberry out there

 

Notable Draft Picks

OT

1st round

Broderick Jones, 6’4”,315, Georgia

Dewand Jones, 6’8, 360, Ohio State

 

2nd Round

Blake Freeland, 6’8” 305, BYU

Anton Harrison, 6’5” 309, OK

Jaelyn Duncan, 6’5” 320, Maryland

 

OG / C

1st round

O’Cyrus Torence, 6’5”,335, Florida (OG)

Dewand Jones, 6’8, 360, Ohio State

 

2nd Round

Andrew Vorhees, 6’6” 320, USC (OG)

John Michael Schmitz, 6’4” 320, Minnesota (C) (I hate double first names, almost as much as hyphen last names)

Luke Wypler, 6’3” 300 Ohio State (C)

Sedrick Van Pran 6’3” 310, Georgia (C)

 

What I would do:

 

     I would Let all UFA walk.  I can get that similar play cheaper in the draft and post draft when you are filling the team with role players.  No reason to sign them now.

 

I would Cut Morse Saves 6.3M

I would not touch Dawkins Contract.  Instead I am getting the rest of the money for what I am about to do elsewhere.

 

I Sign Ethan Pocic, Jawaan Taylor and Dalton Risner. Now before you say we cannot fit all that in the cap, absolutely we can absolutely fit it all with proper structure. Just like we had Vons Cap at 5M this year.  And it will be about time we INVESTED in the OL.  That then allows the flexibility in the draft to get more young cheap Rookie Contracts on the team.  And can use premier picks for Weapons.

 

It would make the OL Look like this

 

LT – Dawkins

LG – Bates

C – Pocic (call it 8M AAV) (Probably around a 3-4M 2023 cap hit)

RG – Risner (call it 10M AAV) Likely around a 5M cap hit in 2023)

RT – Taylor (Lets call this 10M max, I think it will be closer to 7) so you are at around a 5M hit in 2023)

Swing OT – Brown and Doyle

 

So that would need to be around 15M in space to do this got 6 coming from Morse.  Need another 9.  There is the easy bank of Allen.  So the cap layout is more than do able to buy what SHOULD be projected a very good OL and fixes the NO 1 problem with the team. 

 

All Before going into the draft. 

 

PAST WRITEUPS

State of the Franchise

Edited by MAJBobby
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$30M in cap for Dawkins Morse and Bates is absolutely brutal. 

 

They all will be (and should be) back as starters next year. Mostly because we have to replace Saffold and Brown and can't go replacing our entire line. But all three are also extremely average. 

 

We need 5 new lineman by 2024.

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14 minutes ago, Process said:

$30M in cap for Dawkins Morse and Bates is absolutely brutal. 

 

They all will be (and should be) back as starters next year. Mostly because we have to replace Saffold and Brown and can't go replacing our entire line. But all three are also extremely average. 

 

We need 5 new lineman by 2024.

It is.  I think there is a logical cap way to get out from all of them by 2024.

 

Morse this year as I laid out

Dawkins Next along with Bates (there is an out).  Key to get out from Dawkins and Bates is hitting on a LT prospect and LG/RG prospect in this upcoming draft.  Both are relatively thin in Rounds 1 and 2 this year, but good solid prospects in rounds 3-5  The OL strength in this draft from my early grading is rounds 3-5 that is where the value is.

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It would make the OL Look like this

 

LT – Dawkins

LG – Bates

C – Pocic (call it 8M AAV) (Probably around a 3-4M 2023 cap hit)

RG – Risner (call it 10M AAV) Likely around a 5M cap hit in 2023)

RT – Taylor (Lets call this 10M max, I think it will be closer to 7) so you are at around a 5M hit in 2023)

Swing OT – Brown and Doyle


 

Nice write up. I think the bills will make changes but I can’t see it being this drastic.

 

Here are my thoughts:

 

LT- Dawkins (he seems like one of those guys beane and McDermott aren’t going to move on from)

LG- Bates (he played best at LG and Dawkins also played his best with bates best to him)

C- I think Mitch is back for one more year and the following year they either draft a center or slide bates over)

RG- Vorhees (2nd rd pick)

RT- Juan Taylor (young FA signing)

 

Depth- 

Brown- becomes your 6th oline/blocking TE. I also suggested in another thread a move to guard could benefit him

Doyle- got time at guard and tackle in preseaon

Quesenberry- Bring him back at vet minimum gives decent depth at 4 positions

Nick Broeker- draft 4th round tackle ole miss

Ike Boettger- resign vet min type deal

Edited by khlax3
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Just now, khlax3 said:


 

Nice write up. I think the bills will make changes but I can’t see it being this drastic.

 

Here are my thoughts:

 

LT- Dawkins (he seems like one of those guys beane and McDermott aren’t going to move on from)

LG- Bates (he played best at LG and Dawkins also played his best with bates best to him)

C- I think Mitch is back for one more year and the following year they either draft a center or slide bates over)

RG- Vorhees (2nd rd pick)

RT- Juan Taylor (young FA signing)

 

Depth- 

Brown- becomes your 6th oline/blocking TE. I also suggested in another thread a love to guard could benefit him

Doyle- got time at guard and tackle in preseaon

Quesenberry- Bring him back at vet minimum gives decent depth at 4 positions

Nick Broeker- draft 4th round tackle ole miss

Ike Boettger- resign vet min type deal

I would be happy on that.  Buy a Low Penalty Low pressure rate starter.  go in the Draft for the other (i am fine with that too) I almost wrote it that way to be honest because That is probably more in line with what the Bills would do and have shown over the years. 

 

But I decided to go all out on the First post to show the Cap is not going to stop us from doing any moves. 

 

My Key is on the OL in UFA I am looking only for these three things.

 

Low Pressure Rate

Low Penalty Rate

Low Sack Rate.

 

If I can meet those I will accept flaws in run blocking and other things because well 1 we dont run, and two if I am trying to buy a complete OL, I am paying an arm and a leg if the player doesnt come with flaws Like Orlando Brown or Boseman or Seumalo  I would LOVE to do that, but I know the Bills never will do that so I dont want to take hours to write something that the Bills would never come close to doing 

 

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This is just off the top of my head....so I'd like to sign Mcglinchey and Ben powers from Balt. for Lg. I also wouldn't be opposed to throwing a 4th rounder to the Browns and bringing Teller back. I hope we draft the best possible G/C and maybe find Dion's eventual replacement. This is just off the top of my head.

 

I don't think we can draft a Jones/Voorhees and a C,( big kid from Wis.)? we just don't have the right picks. That being said, I would wipe the slate clean with Saffold, Vanroten, Hart, Mancz, blow the whole thing up.

 

I guess what I'm looking at is Dion/Morse/Bates with Brown /Doyle as swings and maybe Ike as a backup. Everyone else gone.

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44 minutes ago, Process said:

$30M in cap for Dawkins Morse and Bates is absolutely brutal. 

 

They all will be (and should be) back as starters next year. Mostly because we have to replace Saffold and Brown and can't go replacing our entire line. But all three are also extremely average. 

 

We need 5 new lineman by 2024.

Will be lucky to draft 1 with this regime

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32 minutes ago, nosejob said:

This is just off the top of my head....so I'd like to sign Mcglinchey and Ben powers from Balt. for Lg. I also wouldn't be opposed to throwing a 4th rounder to the Browns and bringing Teller back. I hope we draft the best possible G/C and maybe find Dion's eventual replacement. This is just off the top of my head.

 

I don't think we can draft a Jones/Voorhees and a C,( big kid from Wis.)? we just don't have the right picks. That being said, I would wipe the slate clean with Saffold, Vanroten, Hart, Mancz, blow the whole thing up.

 

I guess what I'm looking at is Dion/Morse/Bates with Brown /Doyle as swings and maybe Ike as a backup. Everyone else gone.

I thought about McGlinchy as well. He is easily in the double digits in AAV. But definitely something to look into same with Powers. To be honest Powers is probably the better OG to go after over Risner now that I think about it because he is used to pass blocking for a Running QB. 
 

he is probably a 13M AAV OG 

 

I don’t like the Teller move though. Doesn’t fit with what I looked for in terms of pass pro. Hell of a Run Blocker though. That is why I think we can grab their center if we really wanted too. 
 

there is a chance with this position group to have your starters for this year and in the future locked in before the draft. Then you can focus on the eventual Dawkins and Bates replacements in the draft. Keeping your top assets for weapons. In theory (WR/TE will be my next grouping by the way that I write) you could buy there and draft OL. 
 

the theme people will get here is this offseason is all about premier Offensive talent and filling the defense with role players. A complete reversal of what the McD and Beane era have done. 

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1 hour ago, Process said:

$30M in cap for Dawkins Morse and Bates is absolutely brutal. 

 

They all will be (and should be) back as starters next year. Mostly because we have to replace Saffold and Brown and can't go replacing our entire line. But all three are also extremely average. 

 

We need 5 new lineman by 2024.

Replace those 2 with average and we’ll have a good OL.

 

 

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1 hour ago, MAJBobby said:

WARNING - these do get a little long sometimes.

 

OK here we are the first position group offseason primer.  I think I am going to start with the OL.  The issue is with the OL most of the time it performs and doesn’t perform as a single cell organism.  That is how you want your OL to play as a single unit so it gets hard looking at individual players absent the group as a whole but I will work it. 

 

The way I structure these as those that have not read them before I will talk Financials, Pending Bills UFAs, on contract players, Notable UFAs (don’t spend much time here as with no idea with Tags and re-signings, but will mention some notables), Some notable draft picks from my early draft work, And then what I would do is I was the Bills.  I then add the past writeups to the end of the post via links.

 

The standard disclaimer:  I use SPOTRAC (primarily) sometimes will use OverTheCap as well for the salary and contract information.  I will also use profootball reference (primary) for stats.  Also this isn’t meant to be a complete wrap-up of the past season but more so a look at in the future, obviously I will look back at times to talk about how I see the future.

 

So here we go …

 

Financials:

Contracted players: 39 with a cap hit of $230.498M

Cap Space (top 51): -5.464M

 

Offensive Line – 5 players on contact (Spotrac shows 6 however that is because they are accounting for Saffolds void year as well he isn’t on the team) taking up 15.59% of CAP, 22rd highest in the NFL.

 

Interesting here, with only 5 players on Contract we are taking up 15.59% of the cap, so this will have to be addressed and changes need to be made, we will bring at least 5 players in, most likely closer to 7 to 9 to fill out the 90.  Good thing is there is some flexibility financially in the group that I will get to as well so you can improve the group most likely with the money that you can gain from inside the group if this is done right.    

 

Also the players that all played well under Bobby Johnson (Dawkins, Morse (not as much), Bates and Brown all regressed with Kromer as coach.  That has to be looked at and that is a lot of regression on the OL group and with two of them that have been solid players in the past for a long time, that to me is something significant to evaluate. I am not sure if there are better OL coaches out there, but this is something that needs to be evaluated as part of this position group as well. 

 

RFA

None

 

UFA

David Quessenberry – 32 years old, Cap hit in 2022 – 1.75M – Not too much to say here, was signed to provide depth was paid correctly for what he was intended to do.  No reason to beat around the bush here, old, unathletic probably can move one.  At the same time I could see him back in the similar role, league min contract depth player.  Can play both OG and OT so this is what you should look for in cheap depth players.  I think I would move on from David initially as there will be 10 others like him that you can sign post draft as the rest of you team is filled out. 

 

Justin Murray – 29 Years old, Cap hit in 2022 – 1.035M, See above, JAG depth option and can be addressed post draft letting him walk.

 

Roger Saffold – 34 years old, Cap Hit in 2022 – 6.25M, Projected Market Value 5.4M – Here comes likely he first one some might want to debate.  Me it is easy he isn’t a Bills moving forward.  He was one of the worst OGs in the league. Issue with him here is also there could be some direct pull down on the performance of Morse and Dawkins as well here.  I don’t think this is a Kromer thing because his same issues we saw are the same issues Tenn saw as well and why they moved on from him.  Which is what I think we do as well.

 

Greg Van Roten – 33 years old, Cap Hit in 2022 – 1.27M – See Quessenberry and Murray.  JAG are we seeing a trend here with the Bills OL.  A lot of JAGs employed to protect your franchise QB and to open holes in the running game.  One good thing here is can play both OGs and C (so cant Bates, will get more on that later) again like really anyone on this list so far this is the type of player you can find after the draft.

 

Ike Boettger – 28 years old, Cap Hit in 2022 – 1.187M – This is actually one that I finally got to in the UFA list I can make a case for.  Was a very solid LG for us last year before the injury.  I do not think he is a starter, but still needs time to recover from the achilles (See Kyle Williams) I probably would toss a 1 year deal around the same number he was at this year. 

 

Bobby Hart – 28 years old, Cap Hit in 2022 – 1.185M – this is a funny one to me.  He carved a nice role out for himself as the 6th OL on the field when going heavy.  Also, I think he found where he should be playing in the Inside spot.  The problem is that is really all he can play at serviceable level is OG.  I cannot pay a strict OG BU.  Needs to have position versatility to have a BU role in the NFL. But if I can keep him at the 1.1M number I probably do bring him into camp on that number.

 

On Contract

 

Dion Dawkins age 29, 6.54% of cap, 14.824M cap hit (1.958M in savings, 9.81M in savings post June 1st) – Here is my fist hard one.  What to do about Dawkins.  He regressed this year and at times it could be argued that he was the worst OL on the field.  My concern is what is causing the regression, was it a down year?  Was it the Scheme?  Was it the Slug net to him at OG?  Was it the coach?  There are too many questions here that I don’t really have answers for.  He did have 8 penalties this year which is right about up there with his yearly average.  Here is where I would make a change.  Right now with the way his contract is set up you can move on from him in 2024 with little a nice savings IF they do not touch his contract.  However at 8.855M base there is a way to save 5M here with the simple restructure and prorating out the bonus for the next 4 years (2 active contract years, 2 Void Years).  I just Don’t think this is the right player to try and get cap space on because of the questions above on what is causing this years regression.  I hate kicking the can down on players that 1. Are Hurt often, 2. Coming off a regression year and 3. Anyone over 30 not playing QB).  Dawkins is clearly in Bullet 2.  I could overlook that if he was the best player on the line, which he wasn’t that was Morse. 

 

Spencer Brown age 25, 0.58% of cap, 1.31M cap hit (880K in savings) – Rookie Deal with less than 1M in savings.   I don’t do anything here with him he had the same penalty count as a rookie and is still stiff and limited athletically in Pass Pro, though he is an actual decent run blocker even at the second level (which points to enough of an athlete) I am not sure I think this could be a Kromer regression.  He wasn’t the worst on the OL but then again never took the step he was primed to take.  That said I am not throwing the baby out with the bathwater here.  Best case scenario is he would be my Swing OT next year as I go and buy a Legit OT.

 

Tommy Doyle, age 24, 0.45% against cap, 1.01M cap hit (861K savings) – This one is funny.  I think he is fine as depth and the contract is right.  I think the OL might be better with Doyle stepping in instead of Quessenberry but then we will never know because of his IR.  Savings is under 1M too so not much there, UNLESS here is the Key Spencer Brown is your Swing OT.  Then Doyle could be cut and save that almost 900K.

 

Ryan Bates, age 26, 2.15% against cap, 4.875M cap hit (No Savings) – The out is after this year.  I think Bates is another that suffered this year with Kromer.  But at the end of the day I also think he is better at LG than RG.  I would slide him over next to Dawkins next year, however there could be an argument here too that he is better as the swing interior (which can be done contact wise) if one of your starters is on a Rookie Deal.  I don’t think they will be able to go buy 3 new starters on the OL in UFA.  I think you Buy the OT and One OG.  Then go into draft for rookies.  Spend a lot of time on the OL this offseason in the draft and freaking HIT ON THEM.  4.875M is not a bad contract for a good solid OL that can start if need be and can play all 5 positions on the OL.  I would Pay 5M to my 6th OL if they can play all 5 positions. 

 

Mitch Morse, age 31, 4.98% against cap, 11.3M cap hit (6.3M, 8.8M post June 1) – Last but not least the best OL the Bills had this year in Mitch Morse.  He was a Solid Pivot, regressed in pass pro this year and had another Concussion.  My issue with Morse is I have been screaming to plan for life after Morse now for a couple years, instead they tore up his old contract and signed a new one.  (Maybe that is something they can do with Dawkins instead of kicking the can).  His contract does offer some juice to squeeze on a simple structure probably about 3M in space.  But the Bigger savings would come from the release.  Which I do not think they will do.  It would be a lot easier to do it IF they had a young center on Roster already (could that be the Bates Slide in role).  He also has a trigger on 3/19 that fully guarantees 1.36M of his contract.  Not a BIG issue if nothing is done before that trigger it would just lower the pre Jun 1 savings to 5M and post June 1 savings to 7.5M

 

 

Notable UFAs – This list is actually quit long, right now with no contract extensions being done in the league and no tags used.  So some that I list here may not even make it.  But I will put my top 3 to 5 and then come ideas on them. 

 

OT

Orlando Brown Jr – Yeah the top in the class and no reason to talk about him cannot afford and will not hit the market.  I put him here to show you that while there might be better players I am tying to target players that would fit, improve within the financials.  Obviously it is easy saying go sign the top guy.  But that isn’t the mental challenge I want while writing these things. 

 

Jawaan Taylor, 25 years old.  This is my top target, underrated in this class because of his run blocking ability.  However, we do not run so that is not my concern at this point.  Likely can get locked up long term for about 7M a year.  So why do I want him…  His pass blocking.  He posted a 5.2% pressure rate which is very good, and still has ceiling in his play.  Fits the Mold of Physical Specimens the Bills seem to target at 6-5 330 lbs. 

 

Mike McGlinchey, 29 years old – This is probably the top,  most complete RT in the class.  I would expect this contract to be around the 12.5M to 14M a year if they move on in San Fran, which probably prices us out here. 

 

Then some better older guys like

George Fant, 30,

Billy Turner, 31,

 

OG

Isaac Seumalo, 29 years – This is probably your top OG, and likely going to get 14M a year going forward that prices us out.  However I do have some that I will talk.    

 

Dalton Risner, 27 years old – Here is about a 9M dollar a year OG.  Gave up 3 sacks, 1 penalty in over 1000 snaps in Denver.  Plays Both OG spots just as effectively so you can move Bates to LG and Risner your RG.  This would be my top target in the OL Group. 

 

C

Ethan Pocic, 27 years old – Massive tight cap space in CLE so likely hits the market.  He is the pivot on one of the better OLs in the league.  In 2022 played 800 snaps, let up 1 sack and 2 penalties.  Probably around 8M max to land him with a bigger fish in Bozeman and Bradberry out there

 

Notable Draft Picks

OT

1st round

Broderick Jones, 6’4”,315, Georgia

Dewand Jones, 6’8, 360, Ohio State

 

2nd Round

Blake Freeland, 6’8” 305, BYU

Anton Harrison, 6’5” 309, OK

Jaelyn Duncan, 6’5” 320, Maryland

 

OG / C

1st round

O’Cyrus Torence, 6’5”,335, Florida (OG)

Dewand Jones, 6’8, 360, Ohio State

 

2nd Round

Andrew Vorhees, 6’6” 320, USC (OG)

John Michael Schmitz, 6’4” 320, Minnesota (C) (I hate double first names, almost as much as hyphen last names)

Luke Wypler, 6’3” 300 Ohio State (C)

Sedrick Van Pran 6’3” 310, Georgia (C)

 

What I would do:

 

     I would Let all UFA walk.  I can get that similar play cheaper in the draft and post draft when you are filling the team with role players.  No reason to sign them now.

 

I would Cut Morse Saves 6.3M

I would not touch Dawkins Contract.  Instead I am getting the rest of the money for what I am about to do elsewhere.

 

I Sign Ethan Pocic, Jawaan Taylor and Dalton Risner. Now before you say we cannot fit all that in the cap, absolutely we can absolutely fit it all with proper structure. Just like we had Vons Cap at 5M this year.  And it will be about time we INVESTED in the OL.  That then allows the flexibility in the draft to get more young cheap Rookie Contracts on the team.  And can use premier picks for Weapons.

 

It would make the OL Look like this

 

LT – Dawkins

LG – Bates

C – Pocic (call it 8M AAV) (Probably around a 3-4M 2023 cap hit)

RG – Risner (call it 10M AAV) Likely around a 5M cap hit in 2023)

RT – Taylor (Lets call this 10M max, I think it will be closer to 7) so you are at around a 5M hit in 2023)

Swing OT – Brown and Doyle

 

So that would need to be around 15M in space to do this got 6 coming from Morse.  Need another 9.  There is the easy bank of Allen.  So the cap layout is more than do able to buy what SHOULD be projected a very good OL and fixes the NO 1 problem with the team. 

 

All Before going into the draft. 

 

PAST WRITEUPS

State of the Franchise

 

I can't hate on any of those moves but it might be tough to sign all 3 OL when we still have Edmunds to re-sign , he is going to be at least 14M a season or more if we decide to keep him. Also we have to evaluate Tre White, has he lost a step or was it just rust from missing a year? He was slow and grabbed on almost every single play and was terrible in the Bengals game. Can he take Poyer's spot at S? Or do we have to wait until 2025 to rid ourselves of that contract if he's not the same player? I think this would definitely help the OL with those 3 players but to think all 3 would come here is also a stretch imo.

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Just now, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

 

I can't hate on any of those moves but it might be tough to sign all 3 OL when we still have Edmunds to re-sign , he is going to be at least 14M a season or more if we decide to keep him. Also we have to evaluate Tre White, has he lost a step or was it just rust from missing a year? He was slow and grabbed on almost every single play and was terrible in the Bengals game. Can he take Poyer's spot at S? Or do we have to wait until 2025 to rid ourselves of that contract if he's not the same player? I think this would definitely help the OL with those 3 players but to think all 3 would come here is also a stretch imo.

I can fit Edmunds in. Even with the OL buying. And then I am in the business like the chiefs moving off expenditures for cheaper rookie deal. 
 

say for example we hit a home run at Safety in the 3rd round Hyde’s 10M is replaced with a rookie deal next year. 
 

what this team has showed me is they can find these position groups in the draft. 
 

DBs 

Safeties

LBers

Depth WRs later 

 

what they have not been able to find in the draft 

 

OL

WRs TOP END

DEs

 

 

so that being said that is what I am buying the OL and WR2 this year. And going into the draft for the depth and defense (later in draft) 

 

my mindset is this has to be the year the offense is dedicated too. Both in UFA and Early Draft. Time for McD to just get some role players for the easiest and most player friendly secondary scheme in the NFL. 

5 minutes ago, MPL said:

There has to be a real possibility that Mitch hangs it up this offseason after getting his 6th concussion, right? 

I’m be might think. But came back and also made it a point to say no concerns going forward. As much as I do like him I looked to replace him this offseason. He can absolutely stay though and only replace OG and RT this offseason as long as you are drafting another OG and C in the top 4 rounds. 

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5 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

I can fit Edmunds in. Even with the OL buying. And then I am in the business like the chiefs moving off expenditures for cheaper rookie deal. 
 

say for example we hit a home run at Safety in the 3rd round Hyde’s 10M is replaced with a rookie deal next year. 
 

what this team has showed me is they can find these position groups in the draft. 
 

DBs 

Safeties

LBers

Depth WRs later 

 

what they have not been able to find in the draft 

 

OL

WRs TOP END

DEs

 

 

so that being said that is what I am buying the OL and WR2 this year. And going into the draft for the depth and defense (later in draft) 

 

my mindset is this has to be the year the offense is dedicated too. Both in UFA and Early Draft. Time for McD to just get some role players for the easiest and most player friendly secondary scheme in the NFL. 

 

It's hard to find top end talent when you're picking at the bottom of the rounds, hard enough at the top of the rounds.

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Just now, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

 

It's hard to find top end talent when you're picking at the bottom of the rounds, hard enough at the top of the rounds.

This is a draft fallacy. You can always find players as long as you know what you need and what you are looking for. Example you might not find a OT that is fully polished in all aspects of the game. But what if your priority (it should be protecting Allen) so who cares if your OT isn’t the best Run Blocker but is a high performing prospect in Low Pressure Rates low Sack rates and low penalties. You now have an OT to build around. 

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3 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

This is a draft fallacy. You can always find players as long as you know what you need and what you are looking for. Example you might not find a OT that is fully polished in all aspects of the game. But what if your priority (it should be protecting Allen) so who cares if your OT isn’t the best Run Blocker but is a high performing prospect in Low Pressure Rates low Sack rates and low penalties. You now have an OT to build around. 

 

So you're saying the talent at the top of the draft is as good as the bottom? 

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6 minutes ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

 

So you're saying the talent at the top of the draft is as good as the bottom? 

Yep. Otherwise you don’t have late round picks turning into All-Pros. The NFL draft is the easiest to find talent all during it. Very unlike NBA, NHL Etc. 
 

now QBs absolutely you need to likely be earlier in draft to get a top one. We have that top one. The rest of the players can be found all through the draft. 
 

look at Milano Taron Johnson Benford Hamlin 

 

Arguably the best WR in the League was a pick in the 20s Jefferson. 
 

and One position group of you know what you are looking for to find top end players in every round is OL. 

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29 minutes ago, Process said:

Holy ****

 

Yeah thats what Josh was getting for time for most of the game.  Couple that with our receivers being perfectly covered (according to another graph I seen in another thread) you get no offense.

 

This is the type of bad protection Allen dealt with all season long and then people wonder why he "missed that open guy somewhere."

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32 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Yeah thats what Josh was getting for time for most of the game.  Couple that with our receivers being perfectly covered (according to another graph I seen in another thread) you get no offense.

 

This is the type of bad protection Allen dealt with all season long and then people wonder why he "missed that open guy somewhere."

He has been dealing with it a lot longer than this year. 

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