Jump to content

2022 NFL Draft - Day 2 Debrief


GunnerBill
 Share

Recommended Posts

Day two of the 2022 NFL Draft is now in the books. The story was how late the Quarterbacks went and some nonsense from the podium before numerous picks. I might be the minority but I find all that stuff so tiresome. Get up there, read the name on the card. Go away. I'm preparing myself mentally for the ever more ridiculous pick announcements of day 3. Anyway.... on we go!

 

The Bills picks...

The Bills made two picks and executed two trade downs on day 2. I'm going to flip things about a bit by dealing with their third round pick first. "My guy" Jalen Tolbert the wide receiver from South Alabama went right before we picked at pick #88. Dylan Parham, an interior offensive lineman I really liked as a fit here when right after we picked at pick #90. I was disappointed the Bills didn't land either. Tolbert in particular who other than being a small school guy really belonged much earlier in the class IMO. The Cowboys do a good job of taking shots on receivers in the draft regularly which is why they can lose Amari Cooper and Cedric Wilson in a single offseason and still look pretty well stocked at the position. I think it is a general complaint I have with the Bills front office. In Beane's four full drafts before this one they have selected one receiver before the 6th round - Gabriel Davis. I think when you look at the WR market in free agency these days you have to be taking more shots earlier in the draft. 

 

All of that is the context to the selection of Terrel Bernard. But on the pick itself I have no real opinion. He wasn't a player I watched so much as one snap of. I listened to Beane's presser afterwards and they obviously like him, think he can provide depth at both linebacker spots and maybe replaces the vet salary of AJ Klein in that regard, but Klein had the experience and the smarts to do that. Feels like a big ask for a rookie so I expect in his first year he will more serve as the primary backup to Matt Milano. Just from what Beane said about him and what I have read he is an undersized, coverage linebacker, with decent range and good short area quickness. That is a similar profile to Matt. Hopefully he develops the same way. They kicked the can on Milano's deal with a restructure this offseason so it costs $8.6m to get out after this coming year meaning that Matt is likely here at least two more seasons. So while I definitely trust Beane and staff's evaluation of the player I think the people who ask "was there not a guy there in round 3 who could have got on the field consistently sooner than Bernard?" have a legitimate question. 

 

So coming back to James Cook and the trade downs. The Bills took less than typical value on both trades by the Jimmy Johnson chart. The Rich Hill chart would suggest they were only 1 point out on the first trade down from #57 to #60 with Tampa but were more significantly "underpaid" by Cincy in the trade down to #63. Anyway, two additional 6th rounders were added. What the Bills trading down twice for less than market value tells you is that they had no guys left by #57 with second round grades and it was noticeable that in his presser last night Beane did not say they had a second on Cook. I suspect they had a high 3rd on Cook and maybe one or two others in that range and so they thought "if we have to take a 3rd round grade at the end of round 2 we might as well pick up a couple of extra day 3 picks to do so." And I get the thinking. I do like Cook. He was my RB3 and went 3rd of the running backs after Hall and Walker who are the two true "lead back" types from this draft. Cook is more of the Austin Eckler type in that he can run the ball but he is really an offensive weapon as much as a running back. I wouldn't be surprised if he quickly becomes one of Josh's favourite check down guys. He runs those little screens, swing routes and hook routes better than Devin Singletary and while he might not have Motor's wiggle he is bigger and faster and more dynamic with ball in hand in the open field. A time share between those two guys has the opportunity to provide an upgrade in both the running game and also in the running back passing game. 

 

But finally back to where I started..... it means Brandon Beane has spent three day 2 picks on running backs as Bills GM and zero day 2 picks on receivers. I am not entirely sold on that strategically. Though that isn't meant as a knock on either of the picks above in isolation. 

 

What about the other 31...

The Baltimore Ravens are just really darn good at this. And the reason they are really darn good at this is while other teams talk BPA, the Baltimore Ravens live it. Kyle Hamilton, Tyler Linderbaum and David Ojabo were all top 21 players on my board. Then they go and add Travis Jones at a point where he represented value too. I think they have crushed another draft. Yes, they have lost a speedy receiving weapon and it is legit to question how they fill that spot a bit like we are talking with regards to the Bills and their receiver depth, but overall they can pleased with their work in the first two days. The Cowboys had an excellent day 2 as well. I've already mentioned my guy Jalen Tolbert but Sam Williams at edge is a very high ceiling player with an explosive first step. If he can keep himself clean off the field he has a chance to be a pro bowl type player. The Colts are the third team I'd mention. Thought they got good value on all four day 2 picks they had. Alec Pierce adds a much needed receiving weapon, Jelani Woods is a high ceiling guy at tight end, Bernard Raimann could eventually end up as a franchise left tackle with a bit of seasoning and Nick Cross will be an off the bus starter at safety. The Steelers having taken their shot at Quarterback in round one addressed two needs with two guys I had high seconds on in George Pickens and DeMarvin Leal. They both have character questions of some sort - Pickens off-field, Leal his motor on the field - but they are both super talented guys and Pittsburgh has a way of assimilating these people into their culture and reaping the rewards. When you look back now it seems incredible they had so many relatively drama free years out of Antonio Brown until his final few months there given everything that has happened with him since. I should also give props to Kansas City. Didn't love what they did day 1. Thought they made three solid picks on day 2, all of whom will play significant reps for them in 2022. 

 

What's left?

There are 44 guys left that I have watched enough of to have a clear grade on and have on my board. From a Bills perspective, no fourth, one late 5th and then four 6ths and a 7th they might want to get up to get into the next "tier" of prospects. My instinct is if they want to get into round 4 they need to package their 5th and the first pick of the 6th round (acquired from Tampa). That by the Jimmy Johnson chart can get you to around 132... just lower than their original 4th rounder. By the Rich Hill chart it doesn't quite get you there but you can sneak into the comp picks at the bottom of the round. In terms of areas where we might want to take a shot where there is still some depth.... tight end and interior offensive line are the two that stand out. 

 

Top 15 BPA by my board:

 

1. Perrion Winfrey, DT, Oklahoma

2. Daniel Faalele, OT, Minnesota

3. Darian Kinnard, IOL, Kentucky

4. Carson Strong*, QB, Nevada

5. Tariq Woolen, CB, UTSA

6. Justyn Ross*, WR, Clemson

7. Brandon Smith, LB, Penn State

8. Rasheed Walker, OT, Penn State

9. Sam Howell, QB, North Carolina

10. Jayln Armour-Davis, CB, Alabama

11. Cade Otton, TE, Washington

12. Charlie Kolar, Tight End, Notre Dame

13. Calvin Austin, WR, Memphis

14. Max Mitchell, OT, Louisiana

15. Damone Clark*, LB, LSU

 

 

Enjoy the final day folks. 6th round picks are fun!! :D 

 

 

Edited by GunnerBill
  • Like (+1) 3
  • Awesome! (+1) 3
  • Thank you (+1) 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thanks again, Gunner!  My wife, who is a casual football fan at best, had an interesting question on the draft.  I've read that of all the first round picks historically, less than 50% of QBs pan out and that only 60% overall pan out.  Now defining "panning out" can be argued, but her question is this:

 

       Are there certain positions historically that "pan out" better than the others?  For the sake of argument, we can either define "panning out" as becoming a good starter (which is hard to define in itself) or we can define it as making the pro bowl (which is often a farce, but at least provides an empirical stat to use).

 

Are there statistics on this, or do you have a gut feeling based on your vast knowledge and experience?

 

Thanks!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The lack of investment in WR is frustrating. This year there has been an unprecedented run on them, I can’t remember one where 14 WRs went in the first three rounds like this year but that is due to the explosion in the cost of the WR market. So I can’t really blame the Bills for missing out this year

 

However, our roster is starting to get expensive and with that it is starting to show its lack of depth. Next year we will have Diggs and Stephenson along with Davis, Hodgins and McKenzie all on the last year of their deals. Not exactly a world beating room for a team that wants to keep their fastball. And we currently have no TEs under contract for 2023, though hopefully Knox gets extended soon.

 

As Josh has become the center of our team, I hope they do more in the future to support him. Even if it means creating a few holes in our defense along the way.

 

 

 

 

  • Like (+1) 1
  • Agree 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

At this point, I find the Bills draft to be uninspiring. I'm still not sure  we can handle Cover 2 as well as we need to without Josh running. I'm still not sure we've added enough of a threat with the RAC downfield at WR. We did solve the problem at CB2 I hope, although I'm not sure the trade up was great for our setup of the next 2 rounds. We shall see, McBeane has been great during the tenure, not infallible however.

Edited by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower
  • Agree 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, LEBills said:

The lack of investment in WR is frustrating. This year there has been an unprecedented run on them, I can’t remember one where 14 WRs went in the first three rounds like this year but that is due to the explosion in the cost of the WR market. So I can’t really blame the Bills for missing out this year

 

However, our roster is starting to get expensive and with that it is starting to show its lack of depth. Next year we will have Diggs and Stephenson along with Davis, Hodgins and McKenzie all on the last year of their deals. Not exactly a world beating room for a team that wants to keep their fastball. And we currently have no TEs under contract for 2023, though hopefully Knox gets extended soon.

 

As Josh has become the center of our team, I hope they do more in the future to support him. Even if it means creating a few holes in our defense along the way.

 

 

 

 


The way the board fell was somewhat of a disaster “if” we even wanted a WR last night. 
 

That said, “if” we wanted a WR, the run started right before us, so we were absolutely in trade up range.  
 

There are a few guys out there today that would still upgrade the WR room, although, at this point I’m starting to think they are somehow content.  Maybe they are higher on Stevenson or Hodgins than we think, because Kumerow can’t be the answer if we lose Diggs or Davis for any period of time.  
 

Chiefs came into last night with a similar set up.  Three established WR’s in MVS, Juju and Hardman.  They also have a developmental guy in Cornell Powell as well as whatever Josh Gordon is.  They took Skyy Moore.  
 

Incredibly frustrating that even with the trade of Tyreek Hill, I still have to be impressed with how focused they are on giving Mahomes weapons.  
 

 

Edited by SCBills
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, SCBills said:


The way the board fell was somewhat of a disaster “if” we even wanted a WR last night. 
 

That said, “if” we wanted a WR, the run started right before us, so we were absolutely in trade up range.  
 

There are a few guys out there today that would still upgrade the WR room, although, at this point I’m starting to think they are somehow content.  Maybe they are higher on Stevenson or Hodgins than we think, because Kumerow can’t be the answer if we lose Diggs or Davis for any period of time.  
 

Chiefs came into last night with a similar set up.  Three established WR’s in MVS, Juju and Hardman.  They also have a developmental guy in Cornell Powell as well as whatever Josh Gordon is.  They took Skyy Moore.  
 

Incredibly frustrating that even with the trade of Tyreek Hill, I still have to be impressed with how focused they are on giving Mahomes weapons.  
 

 


The Chiefs draft has been ok. I would take our WR room over there’s today so that’s a positive. But unless we start investing higher end assets into it going forward, it won’t continue to be that way.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, LEBills said:


The Chiefs draft has been ok. I would take our WR room over there’s today so that’s a positive. But unless we start investing higher end assets into it going forward, it won’t continue to be that way.


Oh, I agree.. Diggs, Davis and Crowder is a legit trio, but I’m honestly shocked that we’re sitting here going into Day 3 with Kumerow as our outside WR3 for a team that throws the ball a ton. 
 

While the Chiefs lost a ton of firepower in Hill and some depth in Pringle, I do think they rebounded nicely with MVS, Juju and Moore. 
 

 

  • Agree 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, SCBills said:


Oh, I agree.. Diggs, Davis and Crowder is a legit trio, but I’m honestly shocked that we’re sitting here going into Day 3 with Kumerow as our outside WR3 for a team that throws the ball a ton. 
 

While the Chiefs lost a ton of firepower in Hill and some depth in Pringle, I do think they rebounded nicely with MVS, Juju and Moore. 
 

 


Yea, I like the Chiefs drafts. I thought last year how they rebuilt their line was masterful. They haven’t put high end assets into their receivers as I think Juju and MVS won’t be long for the roster I think Skyy will be a monster in that offense.

 

As much as I hate the Chiefs, I hope the Bills take some notes on how to shape a roster with a super-contract QB from them.

  • Agree 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, LEBills said:


Yea, I like the Chiefs drafts. I thought last year how they rebuilt their line was masterful. They haven’t put high end assets into their receivers as I think Juju and MVS won’t be long for the roster I think Skyy will be a monster in that offense.

 

As much as I hate the Chiefs, I hope the Bills take some notes on how to shape a roster with a super-contract QB from them.

 

Refreshed their entire linebacking unit too. All 3 starters will be on rookie deals in 2022. And two nice picks on the secondary this year which they have been guilty of ignoring in the past.

 

EDIT: do think the Dline is going to nees more work soon. Don't love Karlaftis. Jones can't go forever.

Edited by GunnerBill
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, SCBills said:


Oh, I agree.. Diggs, Davis and Crowder is a legit trio, but I’m honestly shocked that we’re sitting here going into Day 3 with Kumerow as our outside WR3 for a team that throws the ball a ton. 
 

While the Chiefs lost a ton of firepower in Hill and some depth in Pringle, I do think they rebounded nicely with MVS, Juju and Moore. 
 

 

I expect Beane to be asked about the WR depth after the draft at his presser…. Then again the Buffalo media sucks so maybe not…

  • Haha (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

I expect Beane to be asked about the WR depth after the draft at his presser…. Then again the Buffalo media sucks so maybe not…


Yea I doubt it, he barely got any push back on Bernard which was one of the biggest reaches so far. Let’s hope he can snag one of the draftable prospects left.
 

If he gets Romeo Doubs I will take back what I said because I think he is a third round talent.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, LEBills said:


Yea, I like the Chiefs drafts. I thought last year how they rebuilt their line was masterful. They haven’t put high end assets into their receivers as I think Juju and MVS won’t be long for the roster I think Skyy will be a monster in that offense.

 

As much as I hate the Chiefs, I hope the Bills take some notes on how to shape a roster with a super-contract QB from them.


They had a ton of high picks, so much easier to look good in the Draft.. and I think Karlaftis is womp womp, but the other defensive guys and Skyy Moore were good picks.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Refreshed their entire linebacking unit too. All 3 starters will be on rookie deals in 2022. And two nice picks on the secondary this year which they have been guilty of ignoring in the past.

 

EDIT: do think the Dline is going to nees more work soon. Don't love Karlaftis. Jones can't go forever.


yes, I still don’t think Bolton is great but Chenel is going to be a problem for us. Hated seeing that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, LEBills said:


Yea I doubt it, he barely got any push back on Bernard which was one of the biggest reaches so far. Let’s hope he can snag one of the draftable prospects left.
 

If he gets Romeo Doubs I will take back what I said because I think he is a third round talent.

Crazy to think a SB favorite is one Diggs or Davis injury away from Jake ducking Kumerow starting. 😅

  • Disagree 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The one way I disagree with the OP’s thoughts is that in effect Beane used a first to acquire Diggs. I also think Beane stays true to his board, especially in the early rounds. They had none of the available receivers ranked as a round 1 pick as they came close. 
 

I also trust they had nobody with a round two grade when their chance came up. 
 

I like the fact that Beane does not reach for picks. WR’s generally don’t make big year 1 contributions.  There are also value picks that come later in the draft who later become studs (look at Diggs). 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, BuffaloBill said:

The one way I disagree with the OP’s thoughts is that in effect Beane used a first to acquire Diggs. I also think Beane stays true to his board, especially in the early rounds. They had none of the available receivers ranked as a round 1 pick as they came close. 
 

I also trust they had nobody with a round two grade when their chance came up. 
 

I like the fact that Beane does not reach for picks. WR’s generally don’t make big year 1 contributions.  There are also value picks that come later in the draft who later become studs (look at Diggs). 


Since McDermott got here in 2017 and if you include the first rounder we used for Diggs, we have used 2 out of 7 first rounders on offense. Josh and Diggs. 
 

They need to put more premium assets to the offense. This year the WRs got scooped up, but the last time we have drafted a receiver before round three was Zay Jones 🤮 in 2017.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Crazy to think a SB favorite is one Diggs or Davis injury away from Jake ducking Kumerow starting. 😅

If went on every thread in the last 3 days and compiled all of your posts repeating this same statement, I could put together a thread that rivals the stupid ***** 100 page Breece Hall thread.

 

Enough already. 

  • Like (+1) 1
  • Haha (+1) 1
  • Thank you (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...