Joe B article about cornerbacks

[MrEpsYtown]

17 hours ago, whorlnut said:

 

McD has always had one elite cover guy and then a JAG on the other side. Tre filled the elite role.

 

This is true, except in 2015, which was Carolina's Super Bowl year. They had Prime Josh Norman and Peanut Tillman. And they were dominate and went 15-1. Yeah they lost the Super Bowl, but Tillman tore his ACL near the end of the season. Maybe if he stays healthy, they win the thing. If we want to win a Super Bowl we can't get away with the Levi Wallaces and Dane Jacksons of the world. 

[Thurman#1]

10 hours ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

You are correct about other options being available.  The Bills and others may be looking at this in a more unique way.  Suppose the Bills are looking at replacing White at the end of his contract (due to age and injury) and they want to have the heir apparent on the roster and familiar with the defense.  In that case, selecting a CB in round one makes perfect sense.  The Bills may also have identified some later round sleepers that have talent and project to be available on day two or later.  In that case, waiting on a CB makes good sense.  My point on this is that none of us know exactly how the Bills see this coming together.  We won't know for sure until Roger reads pick 25 to all of us.  What we do know for sure is that Beane is not going to allow the defense to start the season with a undermanned secondary.  I trust Beane and I suggest the rest of us should as well.

 

 

If they're not planning on renewing White, this isn't the year to get his replacement.

 

They would let White go in 2026, which would be the fifth year for the new guy, meaning we'd already be paying him a lot of money, with more soon to come.

 

If we did decide to let White go (which would be nuts ... it's way too early to decide that ... what would make sense would be to decide that we might at that point let him go depending on how things stand, which isn't much of a decision) the year to draft a 1st rounder would be 2023 or 2024. That way you at least get a year or two not paying too much at CB.

 

If we draft a CB in the first this year the season five years from now will be a distant consideration.

 

I also trust Beane and agree that we don't know. You never really do in the draft, though plenty of people might guess right, especially on one guy.

[Stank_Nasty]

15 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

This is true, except in 2015, which was Carolina's Super Bowl year. They had Prime Josh Norman and Peanut Tillman. And they were dominate and went 15-1. Yeah they lost the Super Bowl, but Tillman tore his ACL near the end of the season. Maybe if he stays healthy, they win the thing. If we want to win a Super Bowl we can't get away with the Levi Wallaces and Dane Jacksons of the world. 

Disagree there. Last years team was every bit a Super Bowl squad. IMO coaching errors ended that season and the super bowl run. 

[Thurman#1]

21 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

This is true, except in 2015, which was Carolina's Super Bowl year. They had Prime Josh Norman and Peanut Tillman. And they were dominate and went 15-1. Yeah they lost the Super Bowl, but Tillman tore his ACL near the end of the season. Maybe if he stays healthy, they win the thing. If we want to win a Super Bowl we can't get away with the Levi Wallaces and Dane Jacksons of the world. 

 

 

Yeah, but Tillman was on a one-year $2M contract, at 34 years old, and he retired the next year. They didn't spend a lot of resources to bring him in.

[whorlnut]

9 hours ago, billybrew1 said:

Their defense won them that super bowl victory over San Fran without a doubt.

Defense wins Super Bowls.

The Rams D won them the Super Bowl last season.

The best teams throughout nfl history have balance.

The Bills DL this year is a big question mark….

It could be slightly below average all the way up to very good….

We’ll see.

And that is going to go a very long way in deciding whether we can win it all or not.

I completely disagree with your assessment of this year’s d. We were the number one ranked d last year that added Von miller and some run stuffing defensive linemen. I think it’s completely irresponsible to think we are gonna take a dip to below average based on a cornerback.

[whorlnut]

27 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

This is true, except in 2015, which was Carolina's Super Bowl year. They had Prime Josh Norman and Peanut Tillman. And they were dominate and went 15-1. Yeah they lost the Super Bowl, but Tillman tore his ACL near the end of the season. Maybe if he stays healthy, they win the thing. If we want to win a Super Bowl we can't get away with the Levi Wallaces and Dane Jacksons of the world. 

Maybe you should tell Brandon Beane that. He seems to really like Dane Jackson. 

[MrEpsYtown]

13 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

Maybe you should tell Brandon Beane that. He seems to really like Dane Jackson. 

 

Yeah I don't believe him. He's going to say that, but Jackson is a depth player. I do like Jackson. But you can't go into a season with Jackson and an injured White. Jackson is more of a 3-4 guy to me.  He said the same stuff about Levi Wallace, tried to replace him for 4 years, and then let him walk. And Wallace was a liability against teams with speed. 

[whorlnut]

6 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

Yeah I don't believe him. He's going to say that, but Jackson is a depth player. I do like Jackson. But you can't go into a season with Jackson and an injured White. Jackson is more of a 3-4 guy to me.  He said the same stuff about Levi Wallace, tried to replace him for 4 years, and then let him walk. And Wallace was a liability against teams with speed. 

you don’t believe him, or you don’t want to believe him?
 

Fine…corner in round 3…happy?

Edited April 21, 2022 by whorlnut

[MrEpsYtown]

27 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

you don’t believe him, or you don’t want to believe him?
 

Fine…corner in round 3…happy?

 

25 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

They’ll add a CB… thinking it needs to be a first round pick opposite White or they will fall short of a SB is ridiculous though… the team rides and dies with Allen and the offense. 

 

Nah I mean, if it's truly how he feels, I trust him obviously. I just think it is smokescreen stuff. I like a few of the corners in the draft. Stingley and McDuffie are my favorites. But I think there are basically 4 guys you could take in the first, with maybe Booth and McDuffie around at our pick.Outside of that you start getting to a place where maybe guys aren't better than Jackson. So I would want an actual real upgrade. 

 

First round corner becomes an immediate starter. Any other position is a backup, so unless those top 4 guys are gone, we are drafting a corner in the first imo. 

Edited April 21, 2022 by MrEpsYtown

[CapeBreton]

It’s not a slam dunk to draft a CB in round 1 but it seems like the correct move this year. Lots of good options that may be available at 25, Andrew Booth Jr or Kyler Gordon.

 

I also agree that everything is on the table, how upset would Bills fans be if we drafted David Ojabo at 25? He’s likely going to miss all of 2022 but would have been a very high pick if not for the Achilles tear. That would be wild and I’d love to see the reactions. 

[TAinLack.]

19 hours ago, SCBills said:

 

That would be an epic fail on the other 10 players if a defense with Poyer, Hyde, Milano, Edmunds, T. Johnson, Miller, Oliver, Rousseau, Jones etc., can't hold down their side of the ball with Jackson on one side and a non-top pick CB opposite him until Tre comes back. 

Frazier.., paging Leslie Frazier.

[whorlnut]

12 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

 

Nah I mean, if it's truly how he feels, I trust him obviously. I just think it is smokescreen stuff. I like a few of the corners in the draft. Stingley and McDuffie are my favorites. But I think there are basically 4 guys you could take in the first, with maybe Booth and McDuffie around at our pick.Outside of that you start getting to a place where maybe guys aren't better than Jackson. So I would want an actual real upgrade. 

 

First round corner becomes an immediate starter. Any other position is a backup, so unless those top 4 guys are gone, we are drafting a corner in the first imo. 

I guess you missed Joe Bs article yesterday how McD doesn’t force rookies into starting right away.

 

Here is what he said:

 

“It’s rare for McDermott to put his faith in a rookie during a 17-game season. He firmly believes that the rookie wall is real and actively manages time off the field throughout the season to help prevent a steep drop-off. The idea that a cornerback selected at No. 25, or any position for that matter, is going to walk in and be the coast-to-coast starter in 2022 lacks the supporting evidence of McDermott’s history with first-year players. The Bills have shown an excellent ability to develop their players, and deviating from that philosophy does not seem likely.”

[OldTimer1960]

36 minutes ago, CapeBreton said:

It’s not a slam dunk to draft a CB in round 1 but it seems like the correct move this year. Lots of good options that may be available at 25, Andrew Booth Jr or Kyler Gordon.

 

I also agree that everything is on the table, how upset would Bills fans be if we drafted David Ojabo at 25? He’s likely going to miss all of 2022 but would have been a very high pick if not for the Achilles tear. That would be wild and I’d love to see the reactions. 

I think that Ojabo wouldn’t have gone too much higher than 25 even if not injured- maybe 10 pick higher?  I don’t think the discount of maybe 10 spots warrants drafting a guy who has a serious injury when you don’t know if he will be able to completely come back from it.  Remember, Ojabo really only produced for 1 season and they pulled him on run downs because he was not good at all against the run.  Further, hard to know how much he benefited from having Hutchison drawing frequent double teams on the other side.

 

 

[MrEpsYtown]

28 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

I guess you missed Joe Bs article yesterday how McD doesn’t force rookies into starting right away.

 

Here is what he said:

 

“It’s rare for McDermott to put his faith in a rookie during a 17-game season. He firmly believes that the rookie wall is real and actively manages time off the field throughout the season to help prevent a steep drop-off. The idea that a cornerback selected at No. 25, or any position for that matter, is going to walk in and be the coast-to-coast starter in 2022 lacks the supporting evidence of McDermott’s history with first-year players. The Bills have shown an excellent ability to develop their players, and deviating from that philosophy does not seem likely.”

 

Somebody was talking about those two rookie corners they drafted that year after Norman left. Bradberry, Worley and Sanchez. Bradberry and Worley were starting corners right off the bat. I think Joe B.'s entire article is just semantics and a smokescreen. They said the same thing about Josh and he was starting week 2. Tre started right away. Ed Oliver started right away (I get that the DL rotates). Devin Singletary and Dawson Knox started right away. Dion Dawkins started after a couple of games. Zay Jones started right away. Taron Johnson was the nickel right away. Tremaine Edmunds started right away at 20 years old. Joe B. is wrong here. It is a case by case basis. Yeah maybe they sign a vet at some point, but it just doesn't make a whole lot of sense in my mind to go anywhere but corner in the first. It's a need and there are some really good ones. If the good ones are gone, then you pivot. Don't force it.     

[Dr. Who]

4 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

Somebody was talking about those two rookie corners they drafted that year after Norman left. Bradberry, Worley and Sanchez. Bradberry and Worley were starting corners right off the bat. I think Joe B.'s entire article is just semantics and a smokescreen. They said the same thing about Josh and he was starting week 2. Tre started right away. Ed Oliver started right away (I get that the DL rotates). Devin Singletary and Dawson Knox started right away. Dion Dawkins started after a couple of games. Zay Jones started right away. Taron Johnson was the nickel right away. Tremaine Edmunds started right away at 20 years old. Joe B. is wrong here. It is a case by case basis. Yeah maybe they sign a vet at some point, but it just doesn't make a whole lot of sense in my mind to go anywhere but corner in the first. It's a need and there are some really good ones. If the good ones are gone, then you pivot. Don't force it.     

I still think a draft day trade for Bradberry may be part of the equation with the Gmen retaining some salary to make it work. Booth is the only CB that could be around @25 that I can stomach. I suspect Gunner is right about measurables that McD values at CB. McDuffie's arm length might be an issue. I personally want speed WR with some size and Oline help prioritized. I'd really like Jameson Williams. He's going too early even for a trade up imo. Christian Watson is intriguing. Folks who don't want him talk about drop rate, but a lot of that is low percentage throws. I agree with prudentially playing the board. I expect a few tactical trades in either direction.

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

If they're not planning on renewing White, this isn't the year to get his replacement.

 

They would let White go in 2026, which would be the fifth year for the new guy, meaning we'd already be paying him a lot of money, with more soon to come.

 

If we did decide to let White go (which would be nuts ... it's way too early to decide that ... what would make sense would be to decide that we might at that point let him go depending on how things stand, which isn't much of a decision) the year to draft a 1st rounder would be 2023 or 2024. That way you at least get a year or two not paying too much at CB.

 

If we draft a CB in the first this year the season five years from now will be a distant consideration.

 

I also trust Beane and agree that we don't know. You never really do in the draft, though plenty of people might guess right, especially on one guy.

Good points but when you look at the last year of White's deal, it is structured to make it easier for the Bills to walk away.  Corners have a limited time for delivering high level performance and injuries shorten that time.  If they let White go in 2026 and sign the new guy to his second contract in 2026, I'd say that lines up pretty well.  In addition you hopefully have some high level play opposite White and the new guy proves that he can be the new number 1.  I think teams that are consistent winners have good rosters on an ongoing basis and they accomplish that by having longer planning horizons with succession plans.  They try to avoid having too many older guys needing to be replaced at the same time.   I'd be amazed if Beane doesn't have this kind of sophisticated planning process.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

I would like to see the Bills sign a couple veterans. One intriguing player is Kevin King. I just wonder if McDermott can turn him into a solid player for us.

[BADOLBILZ]

10 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

I think you're both overstating the potential rise of "zone CB1" draft value AND misrepresenting Sauce Gardner as a "zone CB1" prospect whose value is on par with a Tre White prospect. Gardner is a top 5-10 pick with measurables, tape, and man/zone scheme flex. Tre White was a borderline 1st/2nd guy with decent measurables, tape, and less scheme flex. 

 

Overall, you probably have a point about the obvious rise of zone coverage schemes, but I don't agree that this trend devalues CBs who can also flourish in man coverage. It might even reinforce their value as scheme diverse players who allow coordinators more creativity to mix up their game plans. But it definitely does NOT place a Tre White draft prospect on par with a Sauce Gardner. 

 

 

Yeah by no means are man cover CB's devalued..........given requisite talent many players can simply learn to play zone and excel........but if you don't have the physical talent to play man you aren't going to turn into a top man cover CB.    Being able to play man is the rarer skill and allows you greater defensive flexibility.

 

And I agree that Sauce Gardner is a better prospect than Tre White was and should be a top 5-10 pick........but I will add that he is proven primarily as a zone CB.........and zone CB1 he is.

 

White was also zone CB1 in that 2017 draft and as I said, he would be a 10-15 guy in this draft........behind Gardner and Stingley(because of his man cover potential).........but IMO White would clearly have ranked ahead of the rest.

 

It's also important to remember that 2017 was not a deep CB group...........for almost all of the draft lead up Tre White was routinely penciled in as a top 35-65 pick in most drafts........rarely if ever a first rounder.    He was a bit of a reach based on the positional values of 2017...........but wouldn't have been today.  

 

An elite zone CB talent like White is slightly more valued now, IMO,  and the success of a guy like him and the Bills defense itself is part of the reason why.

 

But it is still easy to find good to very good ones...........you don't need to pick one in round 1 to find that level of player.

 

So it comes down to how much you prioritize the difference between good and elite........and IMO that is a $$$ issue.

 

That first round pick should be used on guys with $20M-$30M aav upside in 3-4 years.    Like Greg Rousseau.......if he turns into what we think he can be then he's THAT guy.  

 

But if you can't envision yourself COMPELLED to pay that particular CB position top dollar to extend him after 3-4 years then it's not the right pick for you, IMO.

 

Now if Sauce was there........sure I'd want that guy and you budget to pay that guy..........but do you budget to pay those bucks to McDuffie or Gordon based on what you've seen of them?    I do not think they are that level of player.    Booth Jr. is the only one I am on the fence on there.   I think he has some Tre White attributes but I am just not as high on him as I was Tre and I do expect to feel that way about a zone CB.........otherwise I'm taking one at the next level for a lesser value pick.  

[OldTimer1960]

2 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I would like to see the Bills sign a couple veterans. One intriguing player is Kevin King. I just wonder if McDermott can turn him into a solid player for us.

King has missed a lot of games in his career.  I think health is probably his biggest problem.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

7 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

King has missed a lot of games in his career.  I think health is probably his biggest problem.

Yeah. He’d be very cheap.