The Josh Allen Problem

[hondo in seattle]

 

I believe Josh Allen is the best Bills quarterback since Jim Kelly.  By the end of his career we just might all agree he's the greatest QB to ever don a Bills uni.  But we’re fooling ourselves if we deny the current flaws in his game.  So let’s talk.

 

Pretty much anyone who has heard of the Lombardy Trophy knows that QBs under duress are less productive than QBs with clean pockets.  Certainly every QB knows this.  So every QB has a plan on how to deal with those days when your OL bodyguard is overmatched.  These plans tend to fall into one of three categories:

 

Stand-And-Deliver.  The idea of Stand-and-Deliver is to stay in the pocket, keep your eyes downfield, take your lumps, and make plays when you can.  While you’ll get hit and sacked sometimes, you hope to make enough positive plays to put points on the board.  The stand-and-deliver approach works best when the QB is tough enough to withstand the beating and the D is good enough to keep you in the game.

 

Quick Strike.  I’ve had the displeasure of watching Brady for his entire NFL career.  When he finds himself poorly protected, he switches into quick-strike, dink-and-dunk mode.  Brady will make his presnap read and then get the ball out so quickly that even the fastest DEs in the league can’t do much about it.  In quick-release mode, Brady isn’t scanning for open receivers, he’s throwing to his predetermined guy no matter what, counting on superior precision and execution. 

 

Scramble.  Scrambling is how Mahomes, for example, deals with those games when his OL is getting overwhelmed.  He’s more athletic than the linemen bearing down on him and can frequently elude them to extend the play.

Last year, Josh played Quick Strike a few games and it worked well.  But when dealing with pressure, his default mode is Scan-and-Scramble.  

 

When one defender breaks into the pocket, I’m still somewhat confident that Josh will make something good happen.  But when two or more defenders beat their blocks – as often happens – Josh will start zig-zagging around.  This is when bad things often occur: an incompletion, a pick, a sack. 

 

The obvious solution is to build an impenetrable OL fortress for Josh that can hold back the opponent’s wildest cavalry charges.  Maybe next year.  Right now, I believe Josh would perform better doing more Quick-Strike then Scramble. 

 

Admittedly, I don’t know what Daboll tells him.   Maybe Daboll specifically says, “Set up in the pocket, scan downfield, and scramble if you have to.”   What I know for sure is that Josh needs to get the ball out quicker given the porous nature of our OL.   That flaw prevents Josh from reaching his true potential as a QB. 

 

I really hate to phrase it like this... but I will:  Sometimes Josh needs to be more Brady-like.  

[LabattBlue]

12 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

I believe Josh Allen is the best Bills quarterback since Jim Kelly.  By the end of his career we just might all agree he's the greatest QB to ever don a Bills uni.  But we’re fooling ourselves if we deny the current flaws in his game.  So let’s talk.

 

Pretty much anyone who has heard of the Lombardy Trophy knows that QBs under duress are less productive than QBs with clean pockets.  Certainly every QB knows this.  So every QB has a plan on how to deal with those days when your OL bodyguard is overmatched.  These plans tend to fall into one of three categories:

 

Stand-And-Deliver.  The idea of Stand-and-Deliver is to stay in the pocket, keep your eyes downfield, take your lumps, and make plays when you can.  While you’ll get hit and sacked sometimes, you hope to make enough positive plays to put points on the board.  The stand-and-deliver approach works best when the QB is tough enough to withstand the beating and the D is good enough to keep you in the game.

 

Quick Strike.  I’ve had the displeasure of watching Brady for his entire NFL career.  When he finds himself poorly protected, he switches into quick-strike, dink-and-dunk mode.  Brady will make his presnap read and then get the ball out so quickly that even the fastest DEs in the league can’t do much about it.  In quick-release mode, Brady isn’t scanning for open receivers, he’s throwing to his predetermined guy no matter what, counting on superior precision and execution. 

 

Scramble.  Scrambling is how Mahomes, for example, deals with those games when his OL is getting overwhelmed.  He’s more athletic than the linemen bearing down on him and can frequently elude them to extend the play.

Last year, Josh played Quick Strike a few games and it worked well.  But when dealing with pressure, his default mode is Scan-and-Scramble.  

 

When one defender breaks into the pocket, I’m still somewhat confident that Josh will make something good happen.  But when two or more defenders beat their blocks – as often happens – Josh will start zig-zagging around.  This is when bad things often occur: an incompletion, a pick, a sack. 

 

The obvious solution is to build an impenetrable OL fortress for Josh that can hold back the opponent’s wildest cavalry charges.  Maybe next year.  Right now, I believe Josh would perform better doing more Quick-Strike then Scramble. 

 

Admittedly, I don’t know what Daboll tells him.   Maybe Daboll specifically says, “Set up in the pocket, scan downfield, and scramble if you have to.”   What I know for sure is that Josh needs to get the ball out quicker given the porous nature of our OL.   That flaw prevents Josh from reaching his true potential as a QB. 

 

I really hate to phrase it like this... but I will:  Sometimes Josh needs to be more Brady-like.  

Agree 100%.  If it means being a “game manager” at times, then so be it. 
 

Throw it to Beasley 20 times in a row if that gets it done. 
 

Is it a Daboll or Allen problem?  Who knows. 

Edited December 8, 2021 by BTB

[Greg S]

Brady is the GOAT and he always had a strong OL, a solid running game, weapons to throw to, and a solid defense on the other side of the ball. I would love to see Josh play with a strong team like that. The Bills are good and have come a long way from their losing ways but this team isn't a finished product. They have their issues and we all know what they are. When/If they get that fixed then I think you will see Allen's play go to another level. We have the QB in place to win us a Lombardi.

[Italian Bills]

12 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

I believe Josh Allen is the best Bills quarterback since Jim Kelly.  By the end of his career we just might all agree he's the greatest QB to ever don a Bills uni.  But we’re fooling ourselves if we deny the current flaws in his game.  So let’s talk.

 

Pretty much anyone who has heard of the Lombardy Trophy knows that QBs under duress are less productive than QBs with clean pockets.  Certainly every QB knows this.  So every QB has a plan on how to deal with those days when your OL bodyguard is overmatched.  These plans tend to fall into one of three categories:

 

Stand-And-Deliver.  The idea of Stand-and-Deliver is to stay in the pocket, keep your eyes downfield, take your lumps, and make plays when you can.  While you’ll get hit and sacked sometimes, you hope to make enough positive plays to put points on the board.  The stand-and-deliver approach works best when the QB is tough enough to withstand the beating and the D is good enough to keep you in the game.

 

Quick Strike.  I’ve had the displeasure of watching Brady for his entire NFL career.  When he finds himself poorly protected, he switches into quick-strike, dink-and-dunk mode.  Brady will make his presnap read and then get the ball out so quickly that even the fastest DEs in the league can’t do much about it.  In quick-release mode, Brady isn’t scanning for open receivers, he’s throwing to his predetermined guy no matter what, counting on superior precision and execution. 

 

Scramble.  Scrambling is how Mahomes, for example, deals with those games when his OL is getting overwhelmed.  He’s more athletic than the linemen bearing down on him and can frequently elude them to extend the play.

Last year, Josh played Quick Strike a few games and it worked well.  But when dealing with pressure, his default mode is Scan-and-Scramble.  

 

When one defender breaks into the pocket, I’m still somewhat confident that Josh will make something good happen.  But when two or more defenders beat their blocks – as often happens – Josh will start zig-zagging around.  This is when bad things often occur: an incompletion, a pick, a sack. 

 

The obvious solution is to build an impenetrable OL fortress for Josh that can hold back the opponent’s wildest cavalry charges.  Maybe next year.  Right now, I believe Josh would perform better doing more Quick-Strike then Scramble. 

 

Admittedly, I don’t know what Daboll tells him.   Maybe Daboll specifically says, “Set up in the pocket, scan downfield, and scramble if you have to.”   What I know for sure is that Josh needs to get the ball out quicker given the porous nature of our OL.   That flaw prevents Josh from reaching his true potential as a QB. 

 

I really hate to phrase it like this... but I will:  Sometimes Josh needs to be more Brady-like.  

Many times in the past I declared that we have to play more slant routes and jet sweep routes, using Bees and Knox for short passes. That because our bad OL that can’t give Allen the time to scan downfield for long gain passes. 

[Dr. Who]

Just now, Greg S said:

Brady is the GOAT and he always had a strong OL, a solid running game, weapons to throw to, and a solid defense on the other side of the ball. I would love to see Josh play with a strong team like that. The Bills are good and have come a long way from their losing ways but this team isn't a finished product. They have their issues and we all know what they are. When/If they get that fixed then I think you will see Allen's play go to another level. We have the QB in place to win us a Lombardi.

The only ones who doubt this are trolls or morons. Whether they fix it is the issue.

[hondo in seattle]

5 minutes ago, Greg S said:

Brady is the GOAT and he always had a strong OL, a solid running game, weapons to throw to, and a solid defense on the other side of the ball. I would love to see Josh play with a strong team like that. The Bills are good and have come a long way from their losing ways but this team isn't a finished product. They have their issues and we all know what they are. When/If they get that fixed then I think you will see Allen's play go to another level. We have the QB in place to win us a Lombardi.

 

 

Brady has not always had a strong OL.  I remember games when our guys were beating their blocks consistently but freaking Brady was getting the ball in 2.1, 2.2 seconds.   When he wants to, Brady can almost make the OL/DL battle almost irrelevant.  Allen can't. 

 

Or maybe he can, but he chooses differently.  I get the impression he just doesn't like dink-and-dunk.  

 

And, yes, I do believe Allen can lead us to a Lombardi.  I really hope Beane builds him a better OL next year.  But we'd be better this year if Allen was better with his presnap reads and faster with his throws.  

 

Edited December 8, 2021 by hondo in seattle

[Greg S]

Just now, hondo in seattle said:

 

 

Brady has not always had a strong OL.  I remember games when our guys were beating their blocks consistently but freaking Brady was getting the ball in 2.1, 2.2 seconds.   When he wants to, Brady can almost make the OL/DL battle almost irrelevant.  Allen can't. 

 

Or maybe he can, but he chooses differently.  I get the impression he just doesn't like dink-and-dunk.  

 

Still I would love to see Allen run the offense with a real running game. By real I mean a good RB doing the running not him. Could you imagine opposing defenses having to worry about our run game which then opens up the passing game. Kelly always said when Thurman was having a good game which was most of the time it made his job so much easier. I think Josh would put up crazy numbers with that kind of a run game not mention a lot wins.

[Ralonzo]

Yahoo:

 

”Allen tried to create magic all night, but was his typical erratic, all-over-the-place self.”

 

Is this fair or just the continuing narrative?

[78thealltimegreat]

Allen had 3 incompletions in the first half of the Colts game and they where still behind 24-7…he promptly had two drops on the 3 and outs to start the second half…the colts then made it 31-7…Allen can a lot of things but he can’t stop other teams from playing keep away from him… by grinding out time of possession and converting 3rd downs 

[hondo in seattle]

1 minute ago, Greg S said:

 

Still I would love to see Allen run the offense with a real running game. By real I mean a good RB doing the running not him. Could you imagine opposing defenses having to worry about our run game which then opens up the passing game. Kelly always said when Thurman was having a good game which was most of the time it made his job so much easier. I think Josh would put up crazy numbers with that kind of a run game not mention a lot wins.

 

Agreed.  

 

Given the current state of affairs - the Bills OL sucks and defenses know we have to pass to win - I think Allen needs to get better at quick hitting passes.

 

But it's easy and fun to imagine a different reality in the future.  We have a better OL and a good RB.  Defenses need to defend both the pass and the run, both the inside and outside of the field, both deep and short.  That automatically makes Josh more effective.  

[78thealltimegreat]

2 minutes ago, Ralonzo said:

Yahoo:

 

”Allen tried to create magic all night, but was his typical erratic, all-over-the-place self.”

 

Is this fair or just the continuing narrative?

People still read yahoo? But the staff writer of the article is a known Allen hater that person wanted the Bills to take Josh Rosen and has had an ax to grind ever since. 

[HamptonBillsfan]

30 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

I believe Josh Allen is the best Bills quarterback since Jim Kelly.  By the end of his career we just might all agree he's the greatest QB to ever don a Bills uni.  But we’re fooling ourselves if we deny the current flaws in his game.  So let’s talk.

 

Pretty much anyone who has heard of the Lombardy Trophy knows that QBs under duress are less productive than QBs with clean pockets.  Certainly every QB knows this.  So every QB has a plan on how to deal with those days when your OL bodyguard is overmatched.  These plans tend to fall into one of three categories:

 

Stand-And-Deliver.  The idea of Stand-and-Deliver is to stay in the pocket, keep your eyes downfield, take your lumps, and make plays when you can.  While you’ll get hit and sacked sometimes, you hope to make enough positive plays to put points on the board.  The stand-and-deliver approach works best when the QB is tough enough to withstand the beating and the D is good enough to keep you in the game.

 

Quick Strike.  I’ve had the displeasure of watching Brady for his entire NFL career.  When he finds himself poorly protected, he switches into quick-strike, dink-and-dunk mode.  Brady will make his presnap read and then get the ball out so quickly that even the fastest DEs in the league can’t do much about it.  In quick-release mode, Brady isn’t scanning for open receivers, he’s throwing to his predetermined guy no matter what, counting on superior precision and execution. 

 

Scramble.  Scrambling is how Mahomes, for example, deals with those games when his OL is getting overwhelmed.  He’s more athletic than the linemen bearing down on him and can frequently elude them to extend the play.

Last year, Josh played Quick Strike a few games and it worked well.  But when dealing with pressure, his default mode is Scan-and-Scramble.  

 

When one defender breaks into the pocket, I’m still somewhat confident that Josh will make something good happen.  But when two or more defenders beat their blocks – as often happens – Josh will start zig-zagging around.  This is when bad things often occur: an incompletion, a pick, a sack. 

 

The obvious solution is to build an impenetrable OL fortress for Josh that can hold back the opponent’s wildest cavalry charges.  Maybe next year.  Right now, I believe Josh would perform better doing more Quick-Strike then Scramble. 

 

Admittedly, I don’t know what Daboll tells him.   Maybe Daboll specifically says, “Set up in the pocket, scan downfield, and scramble if you have to.”   What I know for sure is that Josh needs to get the ball out quicker given the porous nature of our OL.   That flaw prevents Josh from reaching his true potential as a QB. 

 

I really hate to phrase it like this... but I will:  Sometimes Josh needs to be more Brady-like.  

Fix the O-line and see how he plays with a consiste

[hondo in seattle]

Just now, 78thealltimegreat said:

Allen had 3 incompletions in the first half of the Colts game and they where still behind 24-7…he promptly had two drops on the 3 and outs to start the second half…the colts then made it 31-7…Allen can a lot of things but he can’t stop other teams from playing keep away from him… by grinding out time of possession and converting 3rd downs 

 

Sure.  Fair point.  But that's one game.  

But quick hitting passes tend to be high percentage completions that sustain drives.  They also tend not to lead to drive-killing sacks.   

 

And I'm not saying to dink-and-dunk every game.  I'm suggesting that when the OL is struggling to keep Josh upright, we need to adjust what we're doing.  Mad scrambles aren't the solution.  

[Solomon Grundy]

5 minutes ago, Ralonzo said:

Yahoo:

 

”Allen tried to create magic all night, but was his typical erratic, all-over-the-place self.”

 

Is this fair or just the continuing narrative?

In order for a magician to pull of a great trick, he needs a good assistant. Knox wasn't a good assistant

[hondo in seattle]

Just now, HamptonBillsfan said:

Fix the O-line and see how he plays with a consiste

 

I agree the better option is to fix the line.  But is that going to happen this year?  I want to fix this year.

Just now, Solomon Grundy said:

In order for a magician to pull of a great trick, he needs a good assistant. Knox wasn't a good assistant

 

Rocks-for-Hands Knox hasn't entirely gotten over the dropsies that plagued his rookie year.  He probably never will.  And that doesn't help Allen either.

[HamptonBillsfan]

Just now, HamptonBillsfan said:

Fix the O-line and see how he plays with a consistent running attack and better pass protection. He's a great QB in the making and his style now is him improvising with unimaginative playcalling which depends on his incredible arm talent to make plays.

 

[Greg S]

4 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

I agree the better option is to fix the line.  But is that going to happen this year?  I want to fix this year.

 

The only thing they can do for this season is tweak something scheme wise. As far as the players go its just like rearranging the chairs on the Titanic. The real fix can't happen until this offseason. Beane better hit a HR in the draft and FA this offseason.

Edited December 8, 2021 by Greg S

[TC in St. Louis]

4 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

I agree the better option is to fix the line.  But is that going to happen this year?  I want to fix this year.

 

Rocks-for-Hands Knox hasn't entirely gotten over the dropsies that plagued his rookie year.  He probably never will.  And that doesn't help Allen either.

 

Might still have issues from the broken hand.  

[Saint Doug]

I have no problem with JA. I have a problem with how this roster was assembled. No QB can win all by himself in a sustainable manner. He needs a running game to lean on when just throwing isn’t working. Even TB in his prime had a solid running game to lean on. 
 

Right now, the Bills offense is 1 dimensional. You shut down the passing lanes and they are cooked. This is what we have seen in all of our loses. But, I don’t blame JA’s ability. 

[78thealltimegreat]

36 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Sure.  Fair point.  But that's one game.  

But quick hitting passes tend to be high percentage completions that sustain drives.  They also tend not to lead to drive-killing sacks.   

 

And I'm not saying to dink-and-dunk every game.  I'm suggesting that when the OL is struggling to keep Josh upright, we need to adjust what we're doing.  Mad scrambles aren't the solution.  

That’s honestly the only game the bills haven’t had a chance to win this year this is more dabolls game plan design then anything