Justin Zimmer, from DII long shot to serious DT prospect

[maryland-bills-fan]

4 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I foresee a presser where Beane says cutting Phillips was the hardest decision he made and that some other team is going to get a good football player. Maybe they can flip him for a late round draft pick.

IT might be easier to flip Butler or Phillips for a late round draft pick.

 

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

So basically, you're saying there's no significant difference between Butler, Phillips, and Zimmer?  And since you're saying Zimmer is a "marginal NFL talent" transitive property would say Butler and Phillips are also "marginal NFL talents"?

 

I'm not trying to put words in your mouth here, just trying to connect the dots of the various things you're saying.

 

I have said that about Phillips numerous times so not putting words in my mouth at all. With Butler I feel slightly different in the sense that I think application rather than natural talent has been his main issue both in Carolina and here.

[eball]

Pretty sure I called Zimmer one of my “don’t be surprised if he’s on the 53” guys earlier this spring.  He has physical ability combined with the intangibles this organization loves.

[DCofNC]

I think IF, they commit to letting the 3tech eat this year and disrupt from the inside, meaning they are pass rushers, both Oliver and Zimmer have a place, not only on the roster, but to make an impact.  The thing about that is, Star has to step up to his name.  Somebody HAS to clog the lanes.  
 

I like Zimmer and I hope he makes it impossible for them to cut him, but I do think Butler has more of an inside track on the roster spot for a number of reasons.  First and foremost, he’s got the right pedigree, like it or not, it matters and he’s 30lbs heavier = perception of better against the run.  Second, it saves next to nothing (5.3m cap hit vs 3.5M dead cap) to cut him AND it looks bad on the GM to hand a guy that much guaranteed money, only to cut him.  Third, Carolina connection 🤮.  4th Zimmer might get past waivers to the PS, Butler won’t bc of his former play.  

Zimmer basically needs to show he can be Ed Oliver 2.0 to get a spot IMO.  The DEs they drafted this year are making the squad and both have a lot of collegiate success at rushing the passer from the interior, that alone may end his journey, just on numbers.   Basham might actually be his biggest problem, he’s not a lot different in terms of size and what he does well, but he just had a 2nd round pick spent on him, he’s making the team.  If he’s not ready for DE, he can be that pass rusher in the middle.  It’s almost a lock (it seems) for Hughes, Epp, Boogie, Grootzilla, O’bada and Addison, does Johnson make it? If so, is he in over Zim bc Boogie can slide inside?  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I have said that about Phillips numerous times so not putting words in my mouth at all. With Butler I feel slightly different in the sense that I think application rather than natural talent has been his main issue both in Carolina and here.

 

I don't consider myself an expert on assessing DL play.  Butler was being asked to play a new-to-him position last fall.  Phillips was still recovering from ACL.  It's reasonable to expect we haven't seen their "best selves".  The DL for the AFCCG was a tire fire - "not good enough", clearly.  Butler was injured to be a "game time decision" for the Bills in the AFCCG and still got 30% of the reps.

 

My point was to calibrate your assessment of Zimmer as a "marginal NFL player" (which his journeyman history suggests).  You're making that same assessment of a former 3rd round draft pick and a former 1st round draft pick who has played a 5 year career in the NFL, seeing ~35 and ~50% of the snaps his last two years with his previous team.

 

There are probably two ways to look at that.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, eball said:

Pretty sure I called Zimmer one of my “don’t be surprised if he’s on the 53” guys earlier this spring.  He has physical ability combined with the intangibles this organization loves.

 

He has athleticism and intangibles, but he needs to be able to hold his lane on the field against the run and make some plays.

[BADOLBILZ]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I have said that about Phillips numerous times so not putting words in my mouth at all. With Butler I feel slightly different in the sense that I think application rather than natural talent has been his main issue both in Carolina and here.

 

 

Agree on Butler.

 

Coming off a 6 sack season in Carolina and on a relatively "prove it",  low-guarantee deal for that kinda' production.........he really took one for the team last season.

 

He was signed IMO because they were trying to replicate the success they had with Jordan Phillips as a huge 3 tech to rotate with the smaller Oliver.............but they needed him at 1 tech and after struggling with it for a month or so he did a representative job as a 1 tech for the Bills the rest of the way out.    He doesn't have the natural leverage you want from a 1 tech but he was much better at it than Jordan Phillips,  who had been a pushover when used at 1 tech in Buffalo.

[Coach Tuesday]

I read somewhere that Bill Belichick designs his rosters every year depending on that year's schedule.  If the Bills take a similar approach, they'll have to decide how important it is to defend the rush in 2021.  By my count, they only play one elite rushing team - Tennessee - although the Patriots are likely to incorporate a lot of power running this year with a young QB (or Cam), two tight ends and a power back (Harris).  Other than those three games and perhaps the Colts and Steelers, the Bills' opponents are more pass-oriented teams, including the Chiefs, Falcons, Saints, Bucs and Redskins.  That said, given how the Bills continue to be linked to some veteran run-stopping DTs this late into the offseason, they may be thinking they'll need to beef up inside.  Perhaps they just think they'll get enough pressure from their new additions at EDGE.

 

I realize this is a meandering post - I don't know where I come out on it all.  I do think Zimmer makes the team, simply because I don't see McBeane cutting a guy they've touted all offseason as a "Processed Product."  That's not their MO - once they've hyped up a guy for his buy-in, they hate cutting him unless his skills have fallen off considerably.  Here, reports suggest otherwise.  I still think the most likely outcome is that Horrible Harry gets shipped elsewhere.

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

My point was to calibrate your assessment of Zimmer as a "marginal NFL player" (which his journeyman history suggests).  You're making that same assessment of a former 3rd round draft pick and a former 1st round draft pick who has played a 5 year career in the NFL, seeing ~35 and ~50% of the snaps his last two years with his previous team.

 

There are probably two ways to look at that.

 

I do think Phillips is a marginal NFL talent. I think he, like Zimmer, is the sort of guy who has a place as a backup on a 53 somewhere. I don't put Butler in the same camp. He has the talent. His issues are different ones. Personally I wouldn't be in love with both Zimmer and Phillips making the team. They have praised both as process guys though so let's see.

Edited August 10, 2021 by GunnerBill

[marky]

On 8/9/2021 at 9:09 PM, hondo in seattle said:

 

"I'm sure you're right." ~ Lorax

Just wait 10 years, 5 different teams, 3 different positions and for Zimmer to loose 100 lbs.

[Shaw66]

On 8/9/2021 at 8:50 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

He also has a knack for failing to anchor and being moved out of his lane. How many mistakes do I have to accept for the possibility he makes one game changing play? I don't hate Zimmer, but he is a marginal NFL talent. He is a 4th DT somewhere. If that is here so be it but I think we still lack depth at that spot for a team with SB aspirations.

Love your insights.  I'd guess the coaches agree with you.  That's why there's all this talk about a DE, where they are deep, moving inside in passing downs.  By narrowing the responsibilities of their no. 2 three tech or one tech, they probably hope to get better play out of them.