It's Time to Mandate Vaccines

[The Frankish Reich]

11 minutes ago, John Adams said:

 

plenzmd1, your champion has arrived. 

 

Boo!

We also learned the the "md" in plenzmd obviously stands for Maryland and not Medical Doctor

Edited November 23, 2021 by The Frankish Reich

[Big Blitz]

9 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

 

OK, I shouldn't have to waste my time doing this, but ... here it is, in as simple/understandable way possible.

 

1. Let's use nice round numbers. Population of Erie County = 1 million adults. 80 percent of adults fully vaccinated. (We will set aside under 18s now because they are a very small number and weren't eligible until recently)

That means: 

800,000 fully vaccinated adults

200,000 unvaccinated

 

2. Assume 100,000 people hospitalized (I know, way too high, but feel free to reduce that by a factor of 10 or 100 ... I trust you learned that in 5th grade math?)

55 percent of those are unvaccinated

That means 55,000 unvaccinated people hospitalized with COVID

45,000 vaccinated people hospitalized with COVID

 

3. Do the math:

- 55,000 unvaccinated people hospitalized out of a total population of 200,000 unvaccinated people. 27.5% chance that if you are unvaccinated you are currently hospitalized.

- 45,000 vaccinated people hospitalized out of a total population of 800,000 vaccinated people. 5.6% chance that if you are vaccinated you are currently hospitalized.

 

4. Do the ratio if you know how. 27.5 : 5.6 = 4.9.

 

So what have we learned? 

- vaccines will not eliminate the possibility that you will get COVID and have serious enough symptoms to be hospitalized

- vaccines WILL reduce your risk of getting COVID and having serious enough symptoms to be hospitalized by about 5X

 

Why isn't the ratio higher? Didn't the Evil Dr. Fauci suggest it was something like 12X? Doesn't this mean he is EVIL and POSSIBLY PART OF A GRAND CONSPIRACY??

 

No. No it doesn't. It most likely means there are confounding variables. We know vaccine acceptance was much higher among elderly people, who are the same people most likely to have severe symptoms if they get COVID, so that 55:45 split is likely not evenly distributed among age demographics. And, of course, there are always other confounding variables -- those with preexisting conditions were urged to get the vaccine first (and qualified first), and, of course, preexisting conditions are a huge contributor to the likelihood that your COVID infection will cause serious complications.

 

It isn't that hard to understand. Nothing I've done here requires more than arithmetic. No calculus, not even HS freshman algebra ....

 

 

 

 

So half of the unvaccinated will be hospitalized?  Half of people that get Covid end up hospitalized that's what you're saying?  Good God.

 

 

More madness:

 

 

WHO warns Europe COVID death toll could exceed 2.2 million by March, and U.S. warns against travel to Germany and Denmark

 

WHO European regional director Dr. Hans Kluge said Europe needs to take a “vaccine plus” approach to the crisis, meaning that people must not just get vaccinated or receive a booster dose if offered, but also continue to comply with the public safety measures recommended since early last year: wearing face masks in public, socially distancing or avoiding large indoor gatherings, and frequent hand washing.

 

https://on.mktw.net/3l57t1f

 

 

 

 

"VACCINE PLUS" APPROACH FOR LIFE!!

 

 

[The Frankish Reich]

1 minute ago, Big Blitz said:

So half of the unvaccinated will be hospitalized?  Half of people that get Covid end up hospitalized that's what you're saying?  Good God

If you would actually read instead of standing at the ready to mock, you would've seen that I made the numbers easy - no decimals for the math challenged!- and said you are free to reduce numerator by a factor of 10 or even 100 as you see fit. It doesn't change the concept or the ratio ....

[plenzmd1]

Just now, John Adams said:

 

It's not my job to educate you about statistics or critical thinking. 

 

But I'm happy calling you a moran. Moran. 

Yep, about what’s to be expected. Can’t defend your arguments and resort to the insults.

 

It’s too bad really far left mental acuity really does leave something to be desired doesn’t it

[Big Blitz]

4 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

If you would actually read instead of standing at the ready to mock, you would've seen that I made the numbers easy - no decimals for the math challenged!- and said you are free to reduce numerator by a factor of 10 or even 100 as you see fit. It doesn't change the concept or the ratio ....

 

 

 

55,000 out of 200K will be hospitalized.  Ummm....no.  

 

That's what you want to go with??

 

 

I'll go with 5,000.  Over MONTHS

 

Does that upend life in Erie County?   

Edited November 23, 2021 by Big Blitz

[The Frankish Reich]

Just now, Big Blitz said:

 

 

 

55,000 out of 200K will be hospitalized.  Ummm....no.  

 

That's what you want to go with??

 

 

I'll go with 5,000.  Over MONTHS

 

Does that upend life in Erie County?   

Good Lord, people are willfully ignorant.

I SAID REDUCE THE NUMERATOR TO FIT THE DATA.

5,500 or 550 or somewhere in between. Take your pick.

You'll be reducing the numerator for the vaccinated accordingly.

THE RATIO WILL REMAIN THE SAME.

What does this say about Buffalo schools?

[Big Blitz]

9 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Good Lord, people are willfully ignorant.

I SAID REDUCE THE NUMERATOR TO FIT THE DATA.

5,500 or 550 or somewhere in between. Take your pick.

You'll be reducing the numerator for the vaccinated accordingly.

THE RATIO WILL REMAIN THE SAME.

What does this say about Buffalo schools?

 

 

 

Does that number warrant upending life in Erie County via any mandates?

 

 

 

Anyone?

 

 

Florida survived the great summer surge with no mandates.  You're back in the face diaper in Erie County.  Laughingstock. 

 

Get the vaccine or not this is over now (lol too late) or it will never be (they don't want it to be that's not the plan).  

Edited November 23, 2021 by Big Blitz

[The Frankish Reich]

12 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

 

Does that number warrant upending life in Erie County via any mandates 

And so ... we see the shift from the statistically ignorant - "almost half of those hospitalized are vaccinated, so obviously the vaccine doesn't work!" - to the political, without even admitting to the error in interpreting statistics.

This is what the anti-vaccine camp has had to resort to as the original favorite - "it's too new, it's untested, who knows what long-term side effects will emerge in a year" - has been shown to be unfounded. 

What life is being "upended" by requiring people to get vaccines? I got a whole laundry list of vaccines to attend school in Erie County. They lined us up to get the MMR vaccine in school with that little air gun thing. My kids have to show vaccine cards for all the classic diseases that have thankfully been controlled or even eradicated by vaccines. My booster shot literally took 25 minutes of my life a few Saturdays ago ... got an appt at the local supermarket, walked in, got the shot, went home, resumed whatever I was doing (I don't remember, so it was certainly less important than getting the shot).

You wanna talk about shifting goalposts? It's the anti-vaccine mandate crowd that specializes in that.

Edited November 23, 2021 by The Frankish Reich

[John Adams]

1 hour ago, plenzmd1 said:

Yep, about what’s to be expected. Can’t defend your arguments and resort to the insults.

 

I never argued with you. I started with insults. 

 

1 hour ago, plenzmd1 said:

It’s too bad really far left mental acuity really does leave something to be desired doesn’t it

 

The first smart thing you've said today. Give yourself a cookie. 

[plenzmd1]

1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said:

 

OK, I shouldn't have to waste my time doing this, but ... here it is, in as simple/understandable way possible.

 

1. Let's use nice round numbers. Population of Erie County = 1 million adults. 80 percent of adults fully vaccinated. (We will set aside under 18s now because they are a very small number and weren't eligible until recently)

That means: 

800,000 fully vaccinated adults

200,000 unvaccinated

 

2. Assume 100,000 people hospitalized (I know, way too high, but feel free to reduce that by a factor of 10 or 100 ... I trust you learned that in 5th grade math?)

55 percent of those are unvaccinated

That means 55,000 unvaccinated people hospitalized with COVID

45,000 vaccinated people hospitalized with COVID

 

3. Do the math:

- 55,000 unvaccinated people hospitalized out of a total population of 200,000 unvaccinated people. 27.5% chance that if you are unvaccinated you are currently hospitalized.

- 45,000 vaccinated people hospitalized out of a total population of 800,000 vaccinated people. 5.6% chance that if you are vaccinated you are currently hospitalized.

 

4. Do the ratio if you know how. 27.5 : 5.6 = 4.9.

 

So what have we learned? 

- vaccines will not eliminate the possibility that you will get COVID and have serious enough symptoms to be hospitalized

- vaccines WILL reduce your risk of getting COVID and having serious enough symptoms to be hospitalized by about 5X

 

Why isn't the ratio higher? Didn't the Evil Dr. Fauci suggest it was something like 12X? Doesn't this mean he is EVIL and POSSIBLY PART OF A GRAND CONSPIRACY??

 

No. No it doesn't. It most likely means there are confounding variables. We know vaccine acceptance was much higher among elderly people, who are the same people most likely to have severe symptoms if they get COVID, so that 55:45 split is likely not evenly distributed among age demographics. And, of course, there are always other confounding variables -- those with preexisting conditions were urged to get the vaccine first (and qualified first), and, of course, preexisting conditions are a huge contributor to the likelihood that your COVID infection will cause serious complications.

 

It isn't that hard to understand. Nothing I've done here requires more than arithmetic. No calculus, not even HS freshman algebra ....

 

Hey look it, a real answer! Was that so hard? Thank you.

 

BTW, according to the Erie County Heath department, 64% are fully vaccinated, so would have to adjust your numbers accordingly.

 

The issue is your Dr Fauci comment. Yes, it is absolutely the issue that everyone from Fauci to Wallensky to Biden to Gupta to name just about any agency said , and to quote the CDC..."29 more times likely to be hospitalized if not vaccinated"...29!!!!!!!!.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/24/cdc-study-shows-unvaccinated-people-are-29-times-more-likely-to-be-hospitalized-with-covid.html

 

I will even give ya a mully on that stat, here is the updated research on the CDC website.(.ya see they dont use numbers anymore , only vague terms? Wonder why)

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/effectiveness/why-measure-effectiveness/breakthrough-cases.html

 

Quote

Even when fully vaccinated people develop symptoms, they tend to be less severe symptoms than in unvaccinated people. This means they are much less likely to be hospitalized or die than people who are not vaccinated.

People who get vaccine breakthrough infections can be contagious.

 

What would you think would be a " much less likely" number ...8x less, 10X less...what number , pick one. Does not really matter. I mean at least a factor of 6 would you agree?

 

So if that is true, the sheer number of cases in vaccinated people has to be far outweighing the number in unvaxed people. 

 

Only way the numbers do not work is if we say the vaccine is essentially  useless after a couple of months.

 

 

 

 

Edited November 23, 2021 by plenzmd1

[plenzmd1]

19 minutes ago, John Adams said:

 

I never argued with you. I started with insults. 

 

 

The first smart thing you've said today. Give yourself a cookie. 

you are a buffoon

[John Adams]

17 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

 

 

Only way the numbers do not work is if we say the vaccine is essentially  useless after a couple of months.

 

 

Plenmd1's comedy gold continues!

Just now, plenzmd1 said:

you are a buffoon

 

Keep "breaking down" the numbers for us moran. You and Blitz make an excellent team.

[ALF]

The hospitalizations for the vaccinated in Erie County is a wake up call. Do they have other issues ?

[Chef Jim]

1 hour ago, John Adams said:

 

It's not my job to educate you about statistics or critical thinking. 

 

But I'm happy calling you a moran. Moran. 

 

It's called a debate.  Point out the flaws in his points.  

 

But no, you resort to name calling.

 

Carry on Troll..........

[John Adams]

27 minutes ago, Chef Jim said:

 

It's called a debate.  Point out the flaws in his points.  

 

But no, you resort to name calling.

 

Carry on Troll..........

It’s a debate when you acknowledge the other’s intellect. Plenz has yet to present something worth debating. He has definitely presented something worth mocking. 

[Chef Jim]

3 minutes ago, John Adams said:

It’s a debate when you acknowledge the other’s intellect. Plenz has yet to present something worth debating. He has definitely presented something worth mocking. 

So you’re here to make fun of people?  
 

Got it. 
 

Carry on Trollmeister. 

[plenzmd1]

11 minutes ago, John Adams said:

It’s a debate when you acknowledge the other’s intellect. Plenz has yet to present something worth debating. He has definitely presented something worth mocking. 

again, you are freaking buffoon. 

[B-Man]

 

[dpberr]

4 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

The country needs new leadership as it relates to COVID.  You're not going to lockdown, mask or vaccinate your way out of it, but frankly the chances of that successfully occurring were always slim.  

[Orlando Buffalo]

2 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

And so ... we see the shift from the statistically ignorant - "almost half of those hospitalized are vaccinated, so obviously the vaccine doesn't work!" - to the political, without even admitting to the error in interpreting statistics.

This is what the anti-vaccine camp has had to resort to as the original favorite - "it's too new, it's untested, who knows what long-term side effects will emerge in a year" - has been shown to be unfounded. 

What life is being "upended" by requiring people to get vaccines? I got a whole laundry list of vaccines to attend school in Erie County. They lined us up to get the MMR vaccine in school with that little air gun thing. My kids have to show vaccine cards for all the classic diseases that have thankfully been controlled or even eradicated by vaccines. My booster shot literally took 25 minutes of my life a few Saturdays ago ... got an appt at the local supermarket, walked in, got the shot, went home, resumed whatever I was doing (I don't remember, so it was certainly less important than getting the shot).

You wanna talk about shifting goalposts? It's the anti-vaccine mandate crowd that specializes in that.

If the "antivaccine" crowd wanted to stop your right and ability from getting it you would have a point about shifting goal posts but since you are the one trying to force people to give up there rights the responsibility falls to you to prove your point well, not simply say " hey you are doing the same thing I am"