Future Talk - Living in a COVID world once it dies down

[123719bwiqrb]

I want to pontificate about the future.  I was going to drop this in the COVID thread, but I think it needs to breathe on it's own. 

 

The current happenings in the US are pretty much set to course, and there isn't much that will change now.  We know how CA, TX, and FL will go.  Bad, but not as bad as NYC in March/April.

 

What most people are not discussing right now is a world where covid is everywhere and a vaccine never appears.  Or it takes 2 years for the vaccine to appear (end of 2021).  These are highly probable outcomes.  I really want to hear what everyone thinks we should do in this scenario, once most/all of the nation gets to a low level like NY is currently running at?  I would guess that should take the rest of this calendar year for most "hot" states to cool down.

 

Here is what I can gather the lawmakers will mandate:

• Facemasks for everyone where you can't social distance.  See, masks worked (when it may be herd immunity doing all the work?)
• Restaurants at 50% indoors.  Less, if any, dining during wintertime.
• Bars are probably going to get shut down permanently, soon.  Obvious super spreader locations.
• No in-person school instruction.  Too dangerous.
• No large gatherings.  Way too dangerous.
• No playing of "contact" sports for most age groups - HS's, Colleges, and recreational.  Too dangerous.

Basically where we've been treading water for the past month or so in NY.  I just don't see how you can justify changing anything above.  Only a vaccine changes the playing field, and only after multiple years of vaccine administration to adequately distribute and study it's effects.

 

Leaving the politics out of it (big ask for you PPP'ers), what say you?

Edited July 23, 2020 by 123719bwiqrb
breathe vs breath

[shoshin]

We will be back to normal by next summer. 

 

The one residual thing we will see is some masking, especially during outbreaks. Maybe some more hand-washing.

Edited July 23, 2020 by shoshin

[123719bwiqrb]

49 minutes ago, shoshin said:

We will be back to normal by next summer. 

 

The one residual thing we will see is some masking, especially during outbreaks. Maybe some more hand-washing.

 

I like your optimism.  Is this mainly due to vaccines being on the street?  Or do you subscribe to the herd immunity theories being floated about?

 

I just don't see "normal" until well into 2022.

[RochesterRob]

1 hour ago, 123719bwiqrb said:

I want to pontificate about the future.  I was going to drop this in the COVID thread, but I think it needs to breath on it's own. 

 

The current happenings in the US are pretty much set to course, and there isn't much that will change now.  We know how CA, TX, and FL will go.  Bad, but not as bad as NYC in March/April.

 

What most people are not discussing right now is a world where covid is everywhere and a vaccine never appears.  Or it takes 2 years for the vaccine to appear (end of 2021).  These are highly probable outcomes.  I really want to hear what everyone thinks we should do in this scenario, once most/all of the nation gets to a low level like NY is currently running at?  I would guess that should take the rest of this calendar year for most "hot" states to cool down.

 

Here is what I can gather the lawmakers will mandate:

• Facemasks for everyone where you can't social distance.  See, masks worked (when it may be herd immunity doing all the work?)
• Restaurants at 50% indoors.  Less, if any, dining during wintertime.
• Bars are probably going to get shut down permanently, soon.  Obvious super spreader locations.
• No in-person school instruction.  Too dangerous.
• No large gatherings.  Way too dangerous.
• No playing of "contact" sports for most age groups - HS's, Colleges, and recreational.  Too dangerous.

Basically where we've been treading water for the past month or so in NY.  I just don't see how you can justify changing anything above.  Only a vaccine changes the playing field, and only after multiple years of vaccine administration to adequately distribute and study it's effects.

 

Leaving the politics out of it (big ask for you PPP'ers), what say you?

  If you believe this is a control measure by a group with an agenda as many do then you believe that a vaccine and a path to normalcy will most likely never happen.  I know that you asked to leave politics out of it but I believe that is impossible.  

[shoshin]

11 minutes ago, 123719bwiqrb said:

 

I like your optimism.  Is this mainly due to vaccines being on the street?  Or do you subscribe to the herd immunity theories being floated about?

 

I just don't see "normal" until well into 2022.

 

A combination of the low IFR, herd immunity/heterogenous population, the people who accept vaccines, and general weariness around it will get us back to acting normal. I expect we will still have deaths and outbreaks but they will be in smaller pockets of vaccine holdouts and those who can't get access.  

 

 

Edited July 23, 2020 by shoshin

[123719bwiqrb]

1 hour ago, RochesterRob said:

  If you believe this is a control measure by a group with an agenda as many do then you believe that a vaccine and a path to normalcy will most likely never happen.  I know that you asked to leave politics out of it but I believe that is impossible.  

 

I would like to think it is mainly well intentioned governors making short sighted edicts. 

 

What is the end game - mass starvation and death to the peasants?  Or is this just about getting Trump out of the White House?  That doesn't make sense to me.  Is TDS that strong?

[Unforgiven]

2 hours ago, 123719bwiqrb said:

I want to pontificate about the future.  I was going to drop this in the COVID thread, but I think it needs to breathe on it's own. 

 

The current happenings in the US are pretty much set to course, and there isn't much that will change now.  We know how CA, TX, and FL will go.  Bad, but not as bad as NYC in March/April.

 

What most people are not discussing right now is a world where covid is everywhere and a vaccine never appears.  Or it takes 2 years for the vaccine to appear (end of 2021).  These are highly probable outcomes.  I really want to hear what everyone thinks we should do in this scenario, once most/all of the nation gets to a low level like NY is currently running at?  I would guess that should take the rest of this calendar year for most "hot" states to cool down.

 

Here is what I can gather the lawmakers will mandate:

• Facemasks for everyone where you can't social distance.  See, masks worked (when it may be herd immunity doing all the work?)
• Restaurants at 50% indoors.  Less, if any, dining during wintertime.
• Bars are probably going to get shut down permanently, soon.  Obvious super spreader locations.
• No in-person school instruction.  Too dangerous.
• No large gatherings.  Way too dangerous.
• No playing of "contact" sports for most age groups - HS's, Colleges, and recreational.  Too dangerous.

Basically where we've been treading water for the past month or so in NY.  I just don't see how you can justify changing anything above.  Only a vaccine changes the playing field, and only after multiple years of vaccine administration to adequately distribute and study it's effects.

 

Leaving the politics out of it (big ask for you PPP'ers), what say you?

I also think this is the big moment where they slip in AI and replace a humongous amount

of workers while no one is looking.

[123719bwiqrb]

1 hour ago, shoshin said:

 

A combination of the low IFR, herd immunity/heterogenous population, the people who accept vaccines, and general weariness around it will get us back to acting normal. I expect we will still have deaths and outbreaks but they will be in smaller pockets of vaccine holdouts and those who can't get access.  

 

 

 

SO you expect a vaccine by the end of the year?

1 minute ago, Unforgiven said:

I also think this is the big moment where they slip in AI and replace a humongous amount

of workers while no one is looking.

 

That is interesting.  The college model is also going to get blown up.

[TH3]

23 minutes ago, 123719bwiqrb said:

 

I would like to think it is mainly well intentioned governors making short sighted edicts. 

 

What is the end game - mass starvation and death to the peasants?  Or is this just about getting Trump out of the White House?  That doesn't make sense to me.  Is TDS that strong?

5 posts into “leaving politics out of it”

 

lol

[Azalin]

14 minutes ago, 123719bwiqrb said:

 

I would like to think it is mainly well intentioned governors making short sighted edicts. 

 

What is the end game - mass starvation and death to the peasants?  Or is this just about getting Trump out of the White House?  That doesn't make sense to me.  Is TDS that strong?

 

The vast majority of elected officials, regardless of party, are self-serving opportunists who will further their own interests over those of their constituency whenever they can get away with it. Those well-intentioned governors are doing what they believe to be the most politically expedient thing to do. 

 

And yes, TDS is that strong. Political tribalism has grown exponentially more venomous and bitter with the last few election cycles. Coming from outside the sphere of professional politics, Trump has earned the ire of many in his own party, let alone the ever-increasingly communist/fascist left. 

 

10 minutes ago, Unforgiven said:

I also think this is the big moment where they slip in AI and replace a humongous amount

of workers while no one is looking.

 

Most of the jobs currently oh-hold right now are person-to-person retail and service type industries. I'm curious as to what fields you see AI taking over.

[RochesterRob]

4 minutes ago, Azalin said:

 

The vast majority of elected officials, regardless of party, are self-serving opportunists who will further their own interests over those of their constituency whenever they can get away with it. Those well-intentioned governors are doing what they believe to be the most politically expedient thing to do. 

 

And yes, TDS is that strong. Political tribalism has grown exponentially more venomous and bitter with the last few election cycles. Coming from outside the sphere of professional politics, Trump has earned the ire of many in his own party, let alone the ever-increasingly communist/fascist left. 

 

 

Most of the jobs currently oh-hold right now are person-to-person retail and service type industries. I'm curious as to what fields you see AI taking over.

  Law, medicine, engineering, etc..  Why pay an employee a six figure salary for decades on end when most likely you will be able to purchase AI for considerably less.  I don't see one company holding patents to the point where they can hold the world hostage price-wise and patents are not a forever thing.  For a dated show Buck Rodgers in the 25th Century (1979) pointed to the possibility of AI holding important positions in society.

[bilzfancy]

I don't believe they'll find a cure, just like there's no cure for the seasonal flu, or even the common cold. It'll morph and mutate in different variations like the flu, and sars. A vaccine will control it some, like the flu vaccine but covid, I believe will always be around

[Azalin]

1 minute ago, RochesterRob said:

  Law, medicine, engineering, etc..  Why pay an employee a six figure salary for decades on end when most likely you will be able to purchase AI for considerably less.  I don't see one company holding patents to the point where they can hold the world hostage price-wise and patents are not a forever thing.  For a dated show Buck Rodgers in the 25th Century (1979) pointed to the possibility of AI holding important positions in society.

 

AI already exists in many capacities in our society. I'm asking how AI will be (paraphrased) 'slipped in to replace a humongous amount of workers while nobody's looking'.

[123719bwiqrb]

17 minutes ago, TH3 said:

5 posts into “leaving politics out of it”

 

lol

 

I guess I shouldn't have said that.  Just trying to understand what life will look like next year.  You know, without the Obama birther or Trump grabbing talk.  Really, I was trying to understand where RRob was coming from.

 

What do you see next year?

Edited July 23, 2020 by 123719bwiqrb

[RochesterRob]

1 minute ago, Azalin said:

 

AI already exists in many capacities in our society. I'm asking how AI will be (paraphrased) 'slipped in to replace a humongous amount of workers while nobody's looking'.

  Do you question a timeline for acceptance or do you feel a barrier will form concerning the more prestigious jobs in society.  Cost will be the driver whether it be a law firm or a McDonald's store.  Many business people are no doubt already pondering the fallout from the pandemic in terms of employee availability for work.  

[Azalin]

11 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  Do you question a timeline for acceptance or do you feel a barrier will form concerning the more prestigious jobs in society.  Cost will be the driver whether it be a law firm or a McDonald's store.  Many business people are no doubt already pondering the fallout from the pandemic in terms of employee availability for work.  

 

I don't necessarily believe it will go one way or another. Like any other technology, AI will continue to both grow and proliferate as it improves and as demand increases. We will see.

 

My question was specifically regarding to what extent AI will be used to replace victims of the 'covid economy', and in what fields it might happen.

Edited July 23, 2020 by Azalin

[RochesterRob]

3 minutes ago, Azalin said:

 

I don't necessarily believe it will go one way or another. Like any other technology, AI will continue to both grow and proliferate as it improves and as demand increases. We will see.

 

My question was specifically regarding to what extent AI will be used to replace victims of the 'covid economy', and in what fields it might happen.

  It boils down if AI will improve the bottomline of a business then that business will acquire it.  I don't see a barrier.  Business people are about profit and if they can improve profit then they will implement whatever is needed.  If factory robots were available such as what automobile manufacturers use today in the 19th Century then the Captains of Industry such as Carnegie, McCormick, etc. would have used them to replace human labor.  I doubt that most of the business world ever sweat the loss of human labor when automation pushed it out the door.

[bilzfancy]

There's a hamburger place down here that uses robotics to make burgers

[shoshin]

1 hour ago, 123719bwiqrb said:

 

SO you expect a vaccine by the end of the year?

 

 

 

We already have them. Just not in quantity. Yes. But I don't think we will have that many doses for a long time. Assuming 50% of the country won't take the vaccine (because they think they are dangerous), I'm not sure how much of a difference they will make in 2021.

[Taro T]

51 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

We already have them. Just not in quantity. Yes. But I don't think we will have that many doses for a long time. Assuming 50% of the country won't take the vaccine (because they think they are dangerous), I'm not sure how much of a difference they will make in 2021.

 

Until they've actually been tested and shown to be effective & without significant adverse side effects, we BELIEVE we have them.

 

And, until we actually have them, we don't have them.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

5 hours ago, 123719bwiqrb said:

I want to pontificate about the future.  I was going to drop this in the COVID thread, but I think it needs to breathe on it's own. 

 

The current happenings in the US are pretty much set to course, and there isn't much that will change now.  We know how CA, TX, and FL will go.  Bad, but not as bad as NYC in March/April.

 

What most people are not discussing right now is a world where covid is everywhere and a vaccine never appears.  Or it takes 2 years for the vaccine to appear (end of 2021).  These are highly probable outcomes.  I really want to hear what everyone thinks we should do in this scenario, once most/all of the nation gets to a low level like NY is currently running at?  I would guess that should take the rest of this calendar year for most "hot" states to cool down.

 

Here is what I can gather the lawmakers will mandate:

• Facemasks for everyone where you can't social distance.  See, masks worked (when it may be herd immunity doing all the work?)
• Restaurants at 50% indoors.  Less, if any, dining during wintertime.
• Bars are probably going to get shut down permanently, soon.  Obvious super spreader locations.
• No in-person school instruction.  Too dangerous.
• No large gatherings.  Way too dangerous.
• No playing of "contact" sports for most age groups - HS's, Colleges, and recreational.  Too dangerous.

Basically where we've been treading water for the past month or so in NY.  I just don't see how you can justify changing anything above.  Only a vaccine changes the playing field, and only after multiple years of vaccine administration to adequately distribute and study it's effects.

 

Leaving the politics out of it (big ask for you PPP'ers), what say you?

the upside is that we’ve evolved about 5-10 years of virtualization in a few months.   Hopefully a number of these new conveniences are here to stay!

 

[Azalin]

3 hours ago, RochesterRob said:

  It boils down if AI will improve the bottomline of a business then that business will acquire it.  I don't see a barrier.  Business people are about profit and if they can improve profit then they will implement whatever is needed.  If factory robots were available such as what automobile manufacturers use today in the 19th Century then the Captains of Industry such as Carnegie, McCormick, etc. would have used them to replace human labor.  I doubt that most of the business world ever sweat the loss of human labor when automation pushed it out the door.

 

I'm not attempting to discuss the merits or application of AI into our society. My initial question (to Unforgiven) remains unanswered; he said "I also think this is the big moment where they slip in AI and replace a humongous amount of workers while no one is looking."

 

I'm asking for clarification of that statement. 

[123719bwiqrb]

8 hours ago, Azalin said:

 

I'm not attempting to discuss the merits or application of AI into our society. My initial question (to Unforgiven) remains unanswered; he said "I also think this is the big moment where they slip in AI and replace a humongous amount of workers while no one is looking."

 

I'm asking for clarification of that statement. 

I'd expect the AI to appear first in industries that never shut down, but are experiencing pain due to remote workers, sick workers, etc.  A meat packing plant would be a good example - if they lost a bunch of productivity this year due to the virus, and they continue to get ~3 month reinfections for the foreseeable future, then I would expect a machine to carve up the quarters of a cow/pig would appear real soon.  If they lose $1MM a quarter, the 6-sigma productivity engineers could justify that AI robot pet project they've been sitting on but could never cost justify before.

 

I suspect there are many industries out that have been looking to do this, and now can justify the cost.

[fansince88]

12 hours ago, RochesterRob said:

  Law, medicine, engineering, etc..  Why pay an employee a six figure salary for decades on end when most likely you will be able to purchase AI for considerably less.  I don't see one company holding patents to the point where they can hold the world hostage price-wise and patents are not a forever thing.  For a dated show Buck Rodgers in the 25th Century (1979) pointed to the possibility of AI holding important positions in society.

I liked Duck Dodgers of the 24th and a half century better. 

[Gary M]

16 hours ago, shoshin said:

. Maybe some more hand-washing.

 

Never a bad thing

13 hours ago, 123719bwiqrb said:

 

  That doesn't make sense to me.  Is TDS that strong?

 

Yes

[Azalin]

5 hours ago, 123719bwiqrb said:

I'd expect the AI to appear first in industries that never shut down, but are experiencing pain due to remote workers, sick workers, etc.  A meat packing plant would be a good example - if they lost a bunch of productivity this year due to the virus, and they continue to get ~3 month reinfections for the foreseeable future, then I would expect a machine to carve up the quarters of a cow/pig would appear real soon.  If they lose $1MM a quarter, the 6-sigma productivity engineers could justify that AI robot pet project they've been sitting on but could never cost justify before.

 

I suspect there are many industries out that have been looking to do this, and now can justify the cost.

 

I should probably start an AI thread (or find and resurrect the old thread) because I don't mean to derail this one. That said, what you describe is already happening , and I honestly do not see how COVID will influence it significantly either way. 

[Reality Check]

 

The global economy is wrecked.

 

I won't miss it.

[123719bwiqrb]

I'm starting to freak out about mandatory vaccines.  Where does everyone see this going?

 

I doubt the voluntary vaccine angle will work because of the rules as constructed today around the coronabug.  Today you can be a carrier but be asymptomatic (who knows if this is actually true).  So you get the vaccine and now are immune to suffering a bad illness/death.  But what if you can still can be an asymptomatic carrier, like the (guesstimate) 40-60% of the population today?  The only way the vaccine approach works is if everyone gets the vaccine.  100% compliance.

 

Now what happens if you refuse the vaccine?  Make life tough for those people that don't want to risk future autoimmune diseases?  No entry into stores, businesses, or airports unless you have your vaccine mark?  Round them up and make them all live in Florida?  I kid.

 

I am not going to be in the first round of vaccinated humans.  Front line workers and the elderly will get it first.  But how do you see this going down once they all get it?

[Koko78]

56 minutes ago, 123719bwiqrb said:

I'm starting to freak out about mandatory vaccines.  Where does everyone see this going?

 

I doubt the voluntary vaccine angle will work because of the rules as constructed today around the coronabug.  Today you can be a carrier but be asymptomatic (who knows if this is actually true).  So you get the vaccine and now are immune to suffering a bad illness/death.  But what if you can still can be an asymptomatic carrier, like the (guesstimate) 40-60% of the population today?  The only way the vaccine approach works is if everyone gets the vaccine.  100% compliance.

 

Now what happens if you refuse the vaccine?  Make life tough for those people that don't want to risk future autoimmune diseases?  No entry into stores, businesses, or airports unless you have your vaccine mark?  Round them up and make them all live in Florida?  I kid.

 

I am not going to be in the first round of vaccinated humans.  Front line workers and the elderly will get it first.  But how do you see this going down once they all get it?

 

I'm sure they'll just make the unvaccinated sew yellow stars into their clothing, so that everyone knows to avoid them.

[3rdnlng]

7 hours ago, Koko78 said:

 

I'm sure they'll just make the unvaccinated sew yellow stars into their clothing, so that everyone knows to avoid them.

I thought the mark of the beast was going to be a little more permanent than a piece of cloth. 

[Westside]

If biden wins, the "pandemic" will be over by the end of the year. If Trump wins, it will last at least four more years.