Dan Orlovsky just did AFCE QB rankings on ESPN. Had Allen at #3!

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

52 minutes ago, Billl said:

This is patently untrue.

Josh’s ratings in those games were 62.6, 65.2, and 102.7.  
Minshew’s ratings in his last 3 games were 102.8, 72.1, and 106.2.

 

 You're completely moving the goal posts here. There was nothing disingenuous in how I presented the original stats. I simply split each of Allen's two seasons into halves. I did the same for Minshew and the same for Darnold in another thread. 

 

Do you feel three games is a proper samples size over 8 or or 7 games presented in my comparison?

 

Wouldn't you say there is a dramatic difference in degree of difficulty in the three games you reference for Allen and Minshew?

 

Allen:

vs. Baltimore

@ Pittsburgh

@ New England

 

Minshew:

@ Oakland

@ Atlanta

vs. Indianapolis.

 

All three games for Allen are against top 5 ranked defenses who's teams were playing for the playoffs or seeding.

 

The three defenses Minshew faced were ranked 16th, 19th and 20th. Two of the three teams were not playing for anything.

 

 

Edited May 29, 2020 by Sammy Watkins' Rib

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

19 hours ago, Billl said:

Lot of posters here don’t want to admit it, but he was really good.  Daniel Jones is another example.  His team was horrible, but he showed a lot.  Just to show how bad his team was, they went 1-2 in games were Jones put up these combined numbers:  13 TDs, 0 INTs, 982 yards passing.  But he didn’t win enough games, so he sucks...

Jones had a few WOW games. No doubt. 

 

He's not without his own issues. He's got to clean up his fumbling issues. 18 fumbles in 12 starts. He had five combined fumbles in the two one score losses you reference.  Allen's known for fumbling but Jones rookie year makes Allen  look like Drew Brees or Peyton Manning when it comes to ball security in comparison.

 

For the record I'm fine if someone prefers Jones over Allen. You can't overlook the great games Jones had on a pretty bad team. 

 

 

[Doc]

31 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

 You're completely moving the goal posts here. There was nothing disingenuous in how I presented the original stats. I simply split each of Allen's two seasons into halves. I did the same for Minshew and the same for Darnold in another thread. 

 

Do you feel three games is a proper samples size over 8 or or 7 games presented in my comparison?

 

Wouldn't you say there is a dramatic difference in degree of difficulty in the three games you reference for Allen and Minshew?

 

Allen:

vs. Baltimore

@ Pittsburgh

@ New England

 

Minshew:

@ Oakland

@ Atlanta

vs. Indianapolis.

 

All three games for Allen are against top 5 ranked defenses who's teams were playing for the playoffs or seeding.

 

The three defenses Minshew faced were ranked 16th, 19th and 20th. Two of the three teams were not playing for anything.

 

Actually none of the 3 teams Minshew faced had anything to play for as they were all out of the playoffs by the time he faced them.

[JetsFan20]

17 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Jones had a few WOW games. No doubt. 

 

He's not without his own issues. He's got to clean up his fumbling issues. 18 fumbles in 12 starts. He had five combined fumbles in the two one score losses you reference.  Allen's known for fumbling but Jones rookie year makes Allen  look like Drew Brees or Peyton Manning when it comes to ball security in comparison.

 

For the record I'm fine if someone prefers Jones over Allen. You can't overlook the great games Jones had on a pretty bad team. 

 

 

 

I’ve watched:

 

4 years of Mark Sanchez 

2 years of Geno Smith 

2 years of Sam Darnold 

 

3 guys, 8 seasons, and bottom 5 QB play each year. 
 

Fans try so hard to prop their guy up, but if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck-it’s not an eagle, it’s a duck. 
 

Bills/Jets/Giants fans can hope and pray, but if I’m a betting man all three guys aren’t going to be future top 10 QBs based on what I’ve seen.

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

11 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Actually none of the 3 teams Minshew faced had anything to play for as they were all out of the playoffs by the time he faced them.

 

I'm fairly certain the Raiders playoff hopes were still alive. Even after they lost to the Jaguars they were still alive i think.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 minutes ago, JetsFan20 said:

Fans try so hard to prop their guy up, but if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck-it’s not an eagle, it’s a duck. 

 

I can't argue with that.

 

I never liked EJ Manuel. But i was all in on Fitzpartick during his run in 2011 or 2012  with the Bills. And I loved Tyrod after his first season with the Bills.

 

Darnold has had such a screwed up situation on a pretty bad overall team you have to hold out hope for him still.

 

Allen was on a bad offense two years ago but last years offensive personnel was much better. He was super raw coming out so again, holding out hope that he just keeps developing as he has been.

[Nextmanup]

On 5/27/2020 at 10:42 AM, buffaloboyinATL said:

I know these rankings don't mean anything at all, but until the season starts, we have nothing better to talk about.  This is ridiculous. He ranked Darnold number 1, Tua at #2! then Allen and then Stidham.  How the hell can you rank Tua higher than Allen after everything he accomplished so far?   I am fine with him favoring Darnold right now, even though I disagree, but come on! Tua?

 

We are getting a lot of love right now from the media, so this isn't a media bashing thread, just a statement at how bad Orlovsky's take is.  He seems to have an agenda against Josh Allen, which he continues to attribute to "inaccuracy".

Please remind us what Allen has accomplished so far.

 

 

[Doc]

16 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

The Raiders weren’t and the Jags came back from a pretty significant deficit to win.

 

The Raiders were 6-7 going into that game and had just lost to the Titans, who were 8-6 and ultimately got the last wildcard spot, the week before.  They were effectively out of the playoffs by that Jags game.

35 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Please remind us what Allen has accomplished so far.

 

More than Tua has in the pros.

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

They were still very much alive in the playoff race.... either way I’m not sure what this has to do with Minshew and Allen.

Bro don’t bother. No other young QB will get credit with some folks due to Allen insecurity. Folks out here acting like Deshaun Watson is a 10 year pro, and guys like Murray and Minshew didn’t have good rookie campaigns. It’s pointless.

 

We saw this same thing with Mahomes, Wentz etc. They had a bad day at camp and it was proof they were worse than Tyrod or whatever.

[Doc]

5 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

They were still very much alive in the playoff race.... either way I’m not sure what this has to do with Minshew and Allen.

 

They weren't "very much alive."  They needed to win their last 3 games, two on the road, and see the Titans lose their last 3 games, 2 of them at home.  And then if that had happened, they would have gotten extremely lucky to make the playoffs, right?  Or does that only apply when the Bills make it?

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

This year will tell a whole lot about Josh Allen. As I said in another thread, they are a Super Bowl contender if he improves, if not they’ll I’d bet a lot of money they try and convince Cam to sign on for the 2021 season.

Stafford is a more intriguing target. Someone we know can run an offense, and can win if he’s paired with a decent team around him. Cam is riskier at this point imo.

Edited May 29, 2020 by FireChans

[Doc]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

Ok very much alive is a stretch. At that moment they were basically 2 games out with 3 to play. Not likely but not impossible either.... and Titans at 9-7 made it so they would’ve needed to win out and Tennessee lose 2 of their last 3, not all 3. 
 

Again, what does this have to do with Minshew and Allen?

 

Again the Raiders were 6-7 and the Titans were 8-5 (I misspoke and said 8-6 earlier) and on the rise at that point, and the Titans had beaten the Raiders the week before so they held the H2H tie-breaker over them.  And again the Raiders didn't have a good defense.

 

As for what it has to do with Minshew and Allen, the discussion was finishing the season strong.  Minshew had a fine rookie season.  Can he keep it up is the question and something we'll have to wait and see.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

Again, what does this have to do with Minshew and Allen?

I believe I first brought up it’s relevance when another poster claimed I was giving out patently false information that Allen had an as good or better second half of the season than Minshew. 
 

They countered with each players final three games of the season which was never my original argument. 
 

I also noted the stark difference in strength of opponent and meaningfulness of each game. 
 

Allen:

vs. Baltimore

@ Pittsburgh

@ New England

 

Minshew:

@ Oakland

@ Atlanta

vs. Indianapolis

 

 

Edited May 29, 2020 by Sammy Watkins' Rib

[Billl]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

 

They weren't "very much alive."  They needed to win their last 3 games, two on the road, and see the Titans lose their last 3 games, 2 of them at home.  And then if that had happened, they would have gotten extremely lucky to make the playoffs, right?  Or does that only apply when the Bills make it?

So you think those teams laid down, but for some reason the Jags didn’t.  It’s really amazing the contortion act people will go through in order to discount the fact that a late round rookie who was never groomed to be the starter threw for a higher completion percentage, more yards, more TDs, and fewer INTs than Allen.  1 yard TD runs define QB success.  (Ever wonder if maybe the reason Daboll calls Josh’s number from the goal line so often when seemingly every other OC hands it to the RB is to pad the stats of the guy his bosses staked their careers on?)

[Doc]

4 minutes ago, Billl said:

So you think those teams laid down, but for some reason the Jags didn’t.  It’s really amazing the contortion act people will go through in order to discount the fact that a late round rookie who was never groomed to be the starter threw for a higher completion percentage, more yards, more TDs, and fewer INTs than Allen.  1 yard TD runs define QB success.  (Ever wonder if maybe the reason Daboll calls Josh’s number from the goal line so often when seemingly every other OC hands it to the RB is to pad the stats of the guy his bosses staked their careers on?)

 

I think the Jags wanted to see what Minshew could do.  That's how I would have played it with a young QB who looked like he had promise.

[Billl]

9 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

I believe I first brought up it’s relevance when another poster claimed I was giving out patently false information that Allen had an as good or better second half of the season than Minshew. 
 

They countered with each players final three games of the season which was never my original argument. 
 

I also noted the stark difference in strength of opponent and meaningfulness of each game. 
 

Allen:

vs. Baltimore

@ Pittsburgh

@ New England

 

Minshew:

@ Oakland

@ Atlanta

vs. Indianapolis

 

 

You didn’t say he had a better second half.  You said Minshew got less efficient and Josh got more efficient and specifically mentioned his last 3 games including that turd against Pittsburgh.  I gave you both of their ratings for their last 3 games.  Minshew didn’t get less efficient.  His numbers dwarfed Josh’s during that same stretch.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

6 minutes ago, Billl said:

So you think those teams laid down, but for some reason the Jags didn’t.  

Oakland? Most definitely not.

 

Atlanta. Probably not.

 

Indianapolis? Week 17? Playing on the road? Certainly possible. Heck, would be interesting to see how many of the regular defensive starters even played the usual number of snaps for the Colts in that game.

 

On the flip side I know for certain none of Allen’s opponents in his final three starts laid down or made personnel changes you would make near the end of a loss season.

 

And the other half of the puzzle was the defensive rankings for those 3 teams vs the 3 Allen faced. And that’s the most important piece of the puzzle obviously.

[Billl]

2 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

I think the Jags wanted to see what Minshew could do.  That's how I would have played it with a young QB who looked like he had promise.

Explain again how he got less efficient, then.  I’m confused.

[FireChans]

9 minutes ago, Billl said:

So you think those teams laid down, but for some reason the Jags didn’t.  It’s really amazing the contortion act people will go through in order to discount the fact that a late round rookie who was never groomed to be the starter threw for a higher completion percentage, more yards, more TDs, and fewer INTs than Allen.  1 yard TD runs define QB success.  (Ever wonder if maybe the reason Daboll calls Josh’s number from the goal line so often when seemingly every other OC hands it to the RB is to pad the stats of the guy his bosses staked their careers on?)

Yeah but how did Minshew do in games where him, and his two starting WR’s started and finished?

[Doc]

2 minutes ago, Billl said:

Explain again how he got less efficient, then.  I’m confused.

 

More film?

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Oakland? Most definitely not.

 

Atlanta. Probably not.

 

Indianapolis? Week 17? Playing on the road? Certainly possible. Heck, would be interesting to see how many of the regular defensive starters even played the usual number of snaps for the Colts in that game.

 

On the flip side I know for certain none of Allen’s opponents in his final three starts laid down or made personnel changes you would make near the end of a loss season.

 

And the other half of the puzzle was the defensive rankings for those 3 teams vs the 3 Allen faced. And that’s the most important piece of the puzzle obviously.

Minshew didn’t have a full TC as a starter and wasn’t supposed to even start. And he was a rookie. Other important pieces of the puzzle.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 minutes ago, Billl said:

You didn’t say he had a better second half.  You said Minshew got less efficient and Josh got more efficient and specifically mentioned his last 3 games including that turd against Pittsburgh.  I gave you both of their ratings for their last 3 games.  Minshew didn’t get less efficient.  His numbers dwarfed Josh’s during that same stretch.

Bill, go back and look at that post again.

 

clearly I list games1-8 and  9-15 for Allen and games 1-7 and 8-14 for Minshew and the QB rating for each span of games. It’s an even split of first half of season vs second half for each player.

 

That is not three games. I’m confused on where you are getting that take.

4 minutes ago, Billl said:

Explain again how he got less efficient, then.  I’m confused.

First half of season vs. second half of season.

[Billl]

1 minute ago, Doc said:

 

More film?

Watch the Pittsburgh game and tell me Josh was even mediocre.  Duck turned it over 5 times, and the Steelers had 51 rushing yards.  This was one of those vaunted 4th quarter comebacks.

 

Buffalo got over 100 yards rushing from their RBs, 5 turnovers from their defense and managed 17 points on 13 possessions.

6 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

He also became a less efficient passer over the course of the season. Josh became a more efficient passer over the course of the season against elite defenses in Baltimore, New England and Pittsburgh. 

 

Hats off to Minshew for his great start to the season but by the end of the season he was clearly not playing any better than Allen. Credit to Allen for improving? Or discredit Minshew for tailing off?

Did someone hack your account?

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

14 minutes ago, Billl said:

Did someone hack your account?

ah. I see where are lines are crossing.  You are taking that quote to mean I’ve said he played well in all three of those games. Obviously he did not. Those were great defenses.

 

the quote is supposed to go along with the original stats showing each players first half of the season vs second half of the season. Basically I am showing that Allen improved in the second half overall while having to also play against the toughest defenses duri g that second half span.

 

no he did not have good games against Pitt or Baltimore. But even with those two stinkers he played a tiny bit better than Minshew to finish off the second half of the season. 
 

that is my entire point.

 

i can see where it was confusing with how I typed that so thank you for clarifying.

25 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Minshew didn’t have a full TC as a starter and wasn’t supposed to even start. And he was a rookie. Other important pieces of the puzzle.

True.

Also true is that he regressed as he got more reps and more teams got film on him.

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

ah. I see where are lines are crossing.  You are taking that quote to mean I’ve said he played well in all three of those games. Obviously he did not. Those were great defenses.

 

the quote is supposed to go along with the original stats showing each players first half of the season vs second half of the season. Basically I am showing that Allen improved in the second half overall while having to also play against the toughest defenses duri g that second half span.

 

no he did not have good games against Pitt or Baltimore. But even with those two stinkers he played a tiny bit better than Minshew to finish off the second half of the season. 
 

that is my entire point.

 

i can see where it was confusing with how I typed that so thank you for clarifying.

True.

Also true is that he regressed as he got more reps and more teams got film on him.

There was once a young QB who regressed as he got more reps and film. His last 6 games, he threw 5 TD’s to 7 INT’s at the end of his rookie year. Since then, he’s thrown 81 TD’s to 21 picks. Do you know who he is?

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

9 minutes ago, FireChans said:

There was once a young QB who regressed as he got more reps and film. His last 6 games, he threw 5 TD’s to 7 INT’s at the end of his rookie year. Since then, he’s thrown 81 TD’s to 21 picks. Do you know who he is?

No. But there was also a 6th round QB who went on to be the GOAT.

 

I’m not saying Minshew won’t have a long career. I believe my only main argument was that I rather have Allen over Minshew. Both finished the second half of the season with the same ability for the most part so I’ll take the guy with the sky high potential over the better version of Case Keemun. 

 

 

 

51 minutes ago, Billl said:

You didn’t say he had a better second half.  You said Minshew got less efficient and Josh got more efficient and specifically mentioned his last 3 games including that turd against Pittsburgh.  I gave you both of their ratings for their last 3 games.  Minshew didn’t get less efficient.  His numbers dwarfed Josh’s during that same stretch.

 

Billl,

 

my original post on the topic was about 8 or 10 posts before the one that you read and have sited. If you read that one first I think my position makes more sense. iPhone doesn’t give me a post # to reference.
 

my bad for the confusion on the other post. 

[BigBillsFan]

7 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

He also became a less efficient passer over the course of the season. Josh became a more efficient passer over the course of the season against elite defenses in Baltimore, New England and Pittsburgh. 

 

...But at the end of the day they were the same player in the second half of the season.

 

Now Minshew was a true rookie. Allen in year two. But Minshew had far more experience and readiness coming out of college. So one could argue a year 2 Allen is on the same level of a rookie Minshew. Again a wash?...If he can find his deep ball again and improve those numbers he can take another jump in yards and completion percentage and overall rating in year 3. Seems unlikely he will be as bad as he was last year. So we should see an improvement. Question will be how much.

 

Actually the last 3 games for Minshew were far better than Allen's final 3. A factor obvious is the defenses Allen faced were far better so you can't just say Minshew was better, that wouldn't be fair, in the same way you can't say Josh become more efficient against elite defenses. 

 

Allen's games against Baltimore, NE & Pitt were not efficient, they weren't good at all. Throwing for under 50% and never having a game over 208 yards just isn't good or efficient.

 

Also, you can't compare a true rookie with a 2nd year pro who had a full training camp as the presumed starter. You can't re-make Allen a rookie just like Tyrod wasn't a rookie his 1st year with us. You've seen the NFL in practice and games for a year, that matters.

 

Like I said, Minshew would have had over 4,000 yards and 26 TDs and 420 yards his rookie year. If Allen could do that I would have anointed him already.

 

At this point neither are guaranteed long-term starters in this league. Neither have shown enough. The modern NFL means you need to throw for 4,200-4,500 yards with 28+ TDs thrown to be a good starter. Minshew was close to that, but still that could be the fact he's new in the league.

 

Both are a work in progress. If Josh could have Minshew-like numbers with this defense the team is playoff bound and better. We have a better defense, better front office, better coaches, and deeper roster with better salary cap next to Jacksonville and our fans are the best.

 

This has to be Josh's year with Diggs.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

Actually the last 3 games for Minshew were far better than Allen's final 3. A factor obvious is the defenses Allen faced were far better so you can't just say Minshew was better, that wouldn't be fair, in the same way you can't say Josh become more efficient against elite defenses. 

 

Allen's games against Baltimore, NE & Pitt were not efficient, they weren't good at all. Throwing for under 50% and never having a game over 208 yards just isn't good or efficient.

 

 

Yeah that was the wrong choice of words in that post. Was meant to mean he improved over the whole of the second half of the season despite having to play those tough defenses during that stretch.

 

I wouldn't go as far as saying his game @ New England was not good. He posted a QB rating over 100. And over the last two seasons Mahomes is the only QB to post a better QB rating than Allen at New England in 2018. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

?

 

Allen was atrocious in the first half of that football game....he played better in the 2nd but it wasn’t a good game at all. It was a poor game overall.

 

??

 

At the end of the day what was his QB rating? Good or bad?

 

 

[BigBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Yeah that was the wrong choice of words in that post. Was meant to mean he improved over the whole of the second half of the season despite having to play those tough defenses during that stretch.

 

I wouldn't go as far as saying his game @ New England was not good. He posted a QB rating over 100. And over the last two seasons Mahomes is the only QB to post a better QB rating than Allen at New England in 2018. 

 

QB ratings can be defective if you don't pass for much yardage or only complete 50% of passes and only score 17 points but you hit some long balls & some TDs with no interceptions.

 

Mahomes had a 83 rating with 283 yards and 1 TD and 1 INT and a 65% completion % (keeps the sticks moving and keeps the defense off the field) in 2019 which to me is far better than a 100+ rating but multiple 3 and outs and a few long balls and only completed 50% of your passes. It's Rob Johnsoneque.

 

Mahomes game with the 100+ rating against NE was a game where he passed for 4 TDs, 2 INTs, 352 yards, 64% completion rate and they scored 40 points in 2018. Now Chiefs lost in a shootout, but that 100+ rating is SUPER impressive. Not a 13 for 26 and 208 yards with only 17 points to show. That won't win many games.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

His QB rating? Who gives a ***** it’s a terrible statistic to grade a QB.Watch the game. It wasn’t a good performance. He was missing receivers left and right in the first half. He rebounded nicely in the 2nd half but still struggled up until that final drive. 

Okay Scott that is fine. But you are either the only person to never use QB rating ever in any QB debate. Or a liar. If you are consistent with that thought and never bring it up then that is fair.

 

BBF- Mahomes  was really good with a 83 QB rating. That’s fine. But then does that mean we can also admit Allen was pretty good in some of his games with 83 ratings? 

[BillsCelticsAngelsBama]

On 5/27/2020 at 9:08 AM, LB3 said:

Knucklehead? 

Only football I.Q. He's a very intelligent person and I soooo want to be wrong. But trying to improve accuracy and learning to not be Superman are hard to change, especially the former. But I would love to be so wrong. I want the Lombardi before I die. My name on other sites was Win1B4IDie. Just one. Just wish Fromm's brain was in his body.

[machine gun kelly]

Orlovsky isn’t a tool.  One more reason I almost never watch ESPN. A little with NFLN, and my Achilles is I love NFLR at least some of the shows.  I wouldn’t cry if  Weiss would be fired, but the rest are decent.