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NFL's next great dynasty? Chiefs, Cowboys, Bills among candidates

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It’s hard to imagine another Patriots level dynasty that sustains for 10 years let alone 20. Could I see a team going on a run and winning two Super Bowls in four years or three in five? Sure, but the league just isn’t designed for dynasty’s. 

 

Think about how much roster turnover there is in the NFL. How many Buffalo Bills players were on the roster three years ago? I can guaranty you that three years from now 3/4ths of the roster will change. That’s how it works in this league. 

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30 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They have underachieved. Particularly last season. But they have also won 3 division titles in the last 6 seasons, won a couple of playoff games and have been under .500 once in ten years. They have already been a consistently good team without being great. I am actually the exact opposite of you on Dallas. I think they will be good long term. While Will McClay is drafting they are going to be fine. Agree that climbing the mountain to being a great team even once is unproven. As it is for anyone on this list except KC and arguably San Fran. 

 

Good does not equal "dynasty".  I think that is where me and you are not on the same page.  I am not saying they cant be good...I dont see Patriots like Dynasty...Cowboys like Dynasty...49ers like Dynasty, etc and is what the point of this thread was as the article is talking next dynasty.

 

Can they be good for a long time, sure, but can they be a dynasty and win 3 or 4 championships over the next 5 to 7 years...I don't believe it, I wouldn't bet on it, and I don't buy it.  

 

All good bud either way, all that matters is we all agree Buffalo is setup for this kind of potential :)  

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Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Good does not equal "dynasty".  I think that is where me and you are not on the same page.  I am not saying they cant be good...I dont see Patriots like Dynasty...Cowboys like Dynasty...49ers like Dynasty, etc and is what the point of this thread was as the article is talking next dynasty.

 

Can they be good for a long time, sure, but can they be a dynasty and win 3 or 4 championships over the next 5 to 7 years...I don't believe it, I wouldn't bet on it, and I don't buy it.  

 

All good bud either way, all that matters is we all agree Buffalo is setup for this kind of potential :)  

 

I never said good equalled dynasty. I think the Bills and Cowboys chances are very similar. They have two of the best rosters of young players in the NFL. I think the Cowboys have the better QB as we stand here today but I think the Bills have the QB with the higher ceiling.

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11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Watson is worth the 3rd or 4th biggest QB contract. Because he is the 3rd or 4th best Quarterback once you discount the old future HoF guys - Brady, Rodgers, Brees. 

He is worth the third or fourth biggest contract, and he’s going to get at least that.  He isn’t worth 95% of what Mahomes is going to get or 110% of what Wilson got, though.  That’s my whole point.  QB salaries are basically slotted based on the top deal.  
 

Pat will set the market, and Watson will get about 95% of that.  Nobody in the world would prefer to have Watson at $39,000,000 over Mahomes at $42,000,000.  The difference in cap space is negligible, but the difference in their play is enormous.  The following year, one or more of Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, or Jackson is likely going to exceed whatever Mahomes gets, not because they’re better QBs but because that’s the way these negotiations work.

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1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I never said good equalled dynasty. I think the Bills and Cowboys chances are very similar. They have two of the best rosters of young players in the NFL. I think the Cowboys have the better QB as we stand here today but I think the Bills have the QB with the higher ceiling.

 

Im gonna drop some words you dread...CAP management.  I trust Beane a heck of a lot more to retain our players, under the right contracts, and still find value across the roster in affordable signings and drafting well once we have to start paying our young guys their first big contracts.  I do not have that same confidence with the Cowboys.  Thats just the flat out difference for me.  

 

They have neglected Dak to over pay Cooper and over pay for a RB (Zeke's talent worth top dollar, but RB position isnt worth that hefty of an investment).  And Zeke didn't exactly deliver a season worthy of that contract last year, although the talent is there regardless, he is a beast.  They haven't handled Dak well since he got there between all the Romo stuff Jerry was saying while Dak was playing to how they have handled his contract.  I don't have a lot of confidence in how they run the team there.  

 

Cooper isnt worth $20M per year, and while Zeke talent wise is there, has even one team won a SB with a RB who is in the top 3 highest paid in the modern era?  Its just not needed, and thats a lot of bloated money into the RB spot and to a WR who isnt consistent enough to warrant that money.  

 

For me, I heard this all before here in LA as everything you are saying about the Cowboys is the same thing that was said about the Rams 3 years ago.  Now they are having to churn their roster to make it work and they are no longer the favorites, not even in the top 5 in the NFC.  In no particular order:  Niners, Seahawks, Cowboys, Packers, and Saints are all expected to be better.  

 

Like I said...all good...I just don't believe they are a potential dynasty...heck, we don't even know if this team is capable of winning anything because they are mostly in tact and haven't been winning much of anything despite being in a weak division.  

 

 

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The Patriots dynasty has warped people's expectations, and even they went 11 years between Super Bowl wins. A lot of quarterbacks only win one because that's the going rate if you get 10 years of superstar play thanks to contract values, salary caps and because in a one-game playoff format that's now going to be expanded further, actually winning the Lombardi is more a product of catching lightning at the right time than it is about consistently being the best team in the league. This is the design of the NFL. In the 2010's, these 5 teams have the best records:

 

Patriots

Packers

Steelers

Saints

Seahawks

 

3 of these teams won Super Bowls during the decade, and the Saints and Steelers won in 2009 and 2008 respectively. Excluding New England, these teams also averaged 7 playoff appearances each between 2010 and 2020 and one Super Bowl Appearance each (but Seattle got there twice and New Orleans got 0 Super Bowl Appearances).

 

What this shows is that it isn't really possible to build an NFL team past the point where you're getting to the playoffs consistently. What these teams also have in common is that they've gotten superstar quarterback play and have been well-coached. With Bradey out, New England is probably done, and New Orleans, Green Bay and Pittsburgh are on the back end of theirs with aging quarterbacks.

 

Looking at this, I think that Baltimore and Kansas City are the next 2 obvious candidates to be good for awhile. Reid's been coaching that team well and been winning 10 games a year since 2013 and Mahomes has only been in the league 2 years. Harbaugh is also already proven in Baltimore. Outside of these 2, I'd look at Seattle, Dallas, Houston and San Francisco as teams I think will be really good for awhile because they're well-coached and have an extended period of superstar quarterback play ahead.

 

Philadelphia fits the bill if you project Wentz healthy, and Buffalo fits the bill if Josh Allen gets better.

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1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Im gonna drop some words you dread...CAP management.  I trust Beane a heck of a lot more to retain our players, under the right contracts, and still find value across the roster in affordable signings and drafting well once we have to start paying our young guys their first big contracts.  I do not have that same confidence with the Cowboys.  Thats just the flat out difference for me.  

 

They have neglected Dak to over pay Cooper and over pay for a RB (Zeke's talent worth top dollar, but RB position isnt worth that hefty of an investment).  And Zeke didn't exactly deliver a season worthy of that contract last year, although the talent is there regardless, he is a beast.  They haven't handled Dak well since he got there between all the Romo stuff Jerry was saying while Dak was playing to how they have handled his contract.  I don't have a lot of confidence in how they run the team there.  

 

Cooper isnt worth $20M per year, and while Zeke talent wise is there, has even one team won a SB with a RB who is in the top 3 highest paid in the modern era?  Its just not needed, and thats a lot of bloated money into the RB spot and to a WR who isnt consistent enough to warrant that money.  

 

For me, I heard this all before here in LA as everything you are saying about the Cowboys is the same thing that was said about the Rams 3 years ago.  Now they are having to churn their roster to make it work and they are no longer the favorites, not even in the top 5 in the NFC.  In no particular order:  Niners, Seahawks, Cowboys, Packers, and Saints are all expected to be better.  

 

Like I said...all good...I just don't believe they are a potential dynasty...heck, we don't even know if this team is capable of winning anything because they are mostly in tact and haven't been winning much of anything despite being in a weak division.  

 

 

Yea but the difference is the Cowboys have all their guys signed. The Rams still had to sign guys and the biggest difference.... Snead is a ***** drafter and Will McClay isn't.... And yea. I HATE talking about the cap. The cap is a means to an end. The end is having good players and the Cowboys have plenty of them.

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1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Im gonna drop some words you dread...CAP management.  I trust Beane a heck of a lot more to retain our players, under the right contracts, and still find value across the roster in affordable signings and drafting well once we have to start paying our young guys their first big contracts.  I do not have that same confidence with the Cowboys.  Thats just the flat out difference for me.  

 

They have neglected Dak to over pay Cooper and over pay for a RB (Zeke's talent worth top dollar, but RB position isnt worth that hefty of an investment).  And Zeke didn't exactly deliver a season worthy of that contract last year, although the talent is there regardless, he is a beast.  They haven't handled Dak well since he got there between all the Romo stuff Jerry was saying while Dak was playing to how they have handled his contract.  I don't have a lot of confidence in how they run the team there.  

 

Cooper isnt worth $20M per year, and while Zeke talent wise is there, has even one team won a SB with a RB who is in the top 3 highest paid in the modern era?  Its just not needed, and thats a lot of bloated money into the RB spot and to a WR who isnt consistent enough to warrant that money.  

 

For me, I heard this all before here in LA as everything you are saying about the Cowboys is the same thing that was said about the Rams 3 years ago.  Now they are having to churn their roster to make it work and they are no longer the favorites, not even in the top 5 in the NFC.  In no particular order:  Niners, Seahawks, Cowboys, Packers, and Saints are all expected to be better.  

 

Like I said...all good...I just don't believe they are a potential dynasty...heck, we don't even know if this team is capable of winning anything because they are mostly in tact and haven't been winning much of anything despite being in a weak division.  

 

 

The thing is that Dallas has already retained their young guys (depending on where Dak’s hit ends up). Only Vander Esch is up in the next few years of their “core” guys I think. Candidly I just glanced at their future situation but they are past the “Falcons point” where they have to cut guys. Dallas’ pivotal guys are there for multiple years and have been complemented by great drafting.

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Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea but the difference is the Cowboys have all their guys signed. The Rams still had to sign guys and the biggest difference.... Snead is a ***** drafter and Will McClay isn't.... And yea. I HATE talking about the cap. The cap is a means to an end. The end is having good players and the Cowboys have plenty of them.

 

Just now, Kirby Jackson said:

The thing is that Dallas has already retained their young guys (depending on where Dak’s hit ends up). Only Vander Esch is up in the next few years of their “core” guys I think. Candidly I just glanced at their future situation but they are past the “Falcons point” where they have to cut guys. Dallas’ pivotal guys are there for multiple years and have been complemented by great drafting.

 

All good...I don't believe in Dallas front office managing a thin cap and restocking the cupboards.  They have yet to figure out how to win with the team for the last 3 years with a lot of these guys in place.  

 

We are talking about a Dynasty with a team that couldn't make the playoffs with this roster and the roster being mostly healthy last year in a bad division.  So...paper rich isnt the same thing as trophy case rich.  The team can look however great on paper, they aren't translating into enough wins and now are leveraged to the top with this roster.  They need to make this roster win...then they are going to also have to manage a maxed cap with WAY too much money invested in Cooper and Zeke.  Not to mention, can Dak be a SB winning QB or not...he hasn't been able to get them very far while having his best seasons of his career.  Now they are going to pay him too.  

 

End of day...Could be same as Rams...over paid QB, over paid RB, and over paid WR.  Rams had to ditch Cooks and Gurley just to try and get back on track.  Goff hasn't proven he can be a winner yet either yet he's paid like a HOF player.  When Dallas shows it on the field and the front office shows it can make sound contractual decisions...I will start changing my mind.  But ignoring Dak to over pay Cooper and Zeke...those don't seem like sound decisions to me.  Not a chance Beane would leave Allen hanging to over pay Devin and Diggs.   

 

Again all good boys...just difference of opinion on these guys.  Like I said, I feel they can be a contender...they are just 3 years too late to live up to that "gonna be a contender" status because for the last 3 years they were expected to win the division and be a SB threat.  Hasn't worked out.    

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2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The thing is that Dallas has already retained their young guys (depending on where Dak’s hit ends up). Only Vander Esch is up in the next few years of their “core” guys I think. Candidly I just glanced at their future situation but they are past the “Falcons point” where they have to cut guys. Dallas’ pivotal guys are there for multiple years and have been complemented by great drafting.

 

Yep. They are all signed and they don't backload deals. They are much more like Brandon Beane in their contract construction than @Alphadawg7

wants to give them credit for. They take the hits early on guys and retain maximum flexibility down the road. I am on record as not liking the Cooper deal much (and I think if you had guaranteed CeeDee Lamb falling to them they wouldn't have done it) but it is basically a 2 year contract. After 2021 they can get our very easily.  Even Zeke they could get out of after 2021 if they wanted to. Look at Tyron Smith and Zack Martin both no dead money in the last two years of their deals. 

 

Dallas has done a really good job with the cap when you actually get into it. I still don't love the Cooper contract especially when Dak is on the tag but overall they have been one of the better front offices in recent years. 

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Posted (edited)
55 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

 

All good...I don't believe in Dallas front office managing a thin cap and restocking the cupboards.  They have yet to figure out how to win with the team for the last 3 years with a lot of these guys in place.  

 

We are talking about a Dynasty with a team that couldn't make the playoffs with this roster and the roster being mostly healthy last year in a bad division.  So...paper rich isnt the same thing as trophy case rich.  The team can look however great on paper, they aren't translating into enough wins and now are leveraged to the top with this roster.  They need to make this roster win...then they are going to also have to manage a maxed cap with WAY too much money invested in Cooper and Zeke.  Not to mention, can Dak be a SB winning QB or not...he hasn't been able to get them very far while having his best seasons of his career.  Now they are going to pay him too.  

 

End of day...Could be same as Rams...over paid QB, over paid RB, and over paid WR.  Rams had to ditch Cooks and Gurley just to try and get back on track.  Goff hasn't proven he can be a winner yet either yet he's paid like a HOF player.  When Dallas shows it on the field and the front office shows it can make sound contractual decisions...I will start changing my mind.  But ignoring Dak to over pay Cooper and Zeke...those don't seem like sound decisions to me.  Not a chance Beane would leave Allen hanging to over pay Devin and Diggs.   

 

Again all good boys...just difference of opinion on these guys.  Like I said, I feel they can be a contender...they are just 3 years too late to live up to that "gonna be a contender" status because for the last 3 years they were expected to win the division and be a SB threat.  Hasn't worked out.    

That’s fair. At the end of the day no one knows what’s next. Dallas Is basically doing the same thing that the Saints have done for a decade plus. They kept everyone that they felt that they had to. Their top players stay for years. Now, I feel like Dallas has more elite players than the Saints but the Saints top end guys (and coaching) are better. The Saints have always been a contender but have only played in 1 Super Bowl ever. I suppose the Cowboys could be better or worse over the next decade but think that they will largely continue to follow that model. 

52 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep. They are all signed and they don't backload deals. They are much more like Brandon Beane in their contract construction than @Alphadawg7

wants to give them credit for. They take the hits early on guys and retain maximum flexibility down the road. I am on record as not liking the Cooper deal much (and I think if you had guaranteed CeeDee Lamb falling to them they wouldn't have done it) but it is basically a 2 year contract. After 2021 they can get our very easily.  Even Zeke they could get out of after 2021 if they wanted to. Look at Tyron Smith and Zack Martin both no dead money in the last two years of their deals. 

 

Dallas has done a really good job with the cap when you actually get into it. I still don't love the Cooper contract especially when Dak is on the tag but overall they have been one of the better front offices in recent years. 

You can add Lawrence to that as well. He has a $14M savings after 2021 I think. They have done a really nice job managing it (Cooper deal aside).

Edited by Kirby Jackson
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Pretty accurate. You could shuffle the Eagles or Bills at the 4 spot. I'd put Dallas at 6. I'm not a huge Dak fan and I think his contract negotiation will get ugly. The bottom line is teams will be chasing KC for awhile. 

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@Kirby Jackson and @GunnerBill

 

Cheers boys...good convo, good counter points.  I still not sold on them potentially becoming a dynasty as I still think the Zeke and Cooper deals were mistakes and Dak situation is going to get messy.  But still enjoyed the opposing dialogue.  Hopefully I am right thought because the only Dynasty we want to see is a BILLS DYNASTY!  Am I right?  HAHA Cheers

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2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep. They are all signed and they don't backload deals. They are much more like Brandon Beane in their contract construction than @Alphadawg7

wants to give them credit for. They take the hits early on guys and retain maximum flexibility down the road. I am on record as not liking the Cooper deal much (and I think if you had guaranteed CeeDee Lamb falling to them they wouldn't have done it) but it is basically a 2 year contract. After 2021 they can get our very easily.  Even Zeke they could get out of after 2021 if they wanted to. Look at Tyron Smith and Zack Martin both no dead money in the last two years of their deals. 

 

Dallas has done a really good job with the cap when you actually get into it. I still don't love the Cooper contract especially when Dak is on the tag but overall they have been one of the better front offices in recent years. 

Do you think there’s a chance their plan is to roll with Dalton for a year or two and go all in for a top QB in next year’s draft?  It kind of feels that way to me.  If they think he’s QB purgatory, Dalton could be their Alex Smith while they groom the new guy to ease him into a stacked roster.

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15 minutes ago, Billl said:

Do you think there’s a chance their plan is to roll with Dalton for a year or two and go all in for a top QB in next year’s draft?  It kind of feels that way to me.  If they think he’s QB purgatory, Dalton could be their Alex Smith while they groom the new guy to ease him into a stacked roster.

 

The idea that Dalton is some kind of leverage is absurd if the Cowboys actually want to compete but would fit with the idea that Jerry doesn't know what he's doing. Of Dak really wanted to bring that point home he could hold out but the fact that he won't is part of the reason you do a deal with him.

 

The current squabble is over a 5th year. Dak wants another bite at free agency going into his age 30 season or wants Dallas to pay a premium for that year.

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17 hours ago, Greg S said:

What the Pats did was amazing but they had/have the GOAT HC/QB during that time. I don't think you will see a dynasty like that again. FA and salary cap make it almost impossible to be that dominant. The league is all about parity which makes what the Pats accomplished all that more impressive. I hope the Bills can have a run like the Giants had with Coughlin with two Super Bowls. Would love for the Bills to do what the Pats did over the last 20 years but I don't see any team doing that.

Don't delude yourself, the NFL picks the winners and losers by exerting as much influence as possible. 

It's not a "statistical improbability" what Belichick and Brady have done, one only has to consider all of the angles. Sure, Brady and Bill are good, great even. But that's all it took to get started. Once the NFL realized what they had in the "patriots" (a team EVERBODY loves & hates) it just made complete and total business sense to insure that gravy train kept rolling along. Whether that takes the form of soft discipline, special referee treatment, soft schedules, etc. It gets the job done.

But those days are numbered and it's time for the NFL to turn the corner. What's the next new and exciting team that they can 'sell'. I can see the bills in the running. We'll see how the refs calls go our way (or not) through out this season... we'll get a sense of where we stand. 

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4 hours ago, Billl said:

Do you think there’s a chance their plan is to roll with Dalton for a year or two and go all in for a top QB in next year’s draft?  It kind of feels that way to me.  If they think he’s QB purgatory, Dalton could be their Alex Smith while they groom the new guy to ease him into a stacked roster.

 

No they plan to sign Dak. 

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Dynasty ?....thats a mouthful

 

only KC is currently on that list right now for me, with that kind of potential.

 

credit to beane and mcdermott for getting us on such a list

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9 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

@Kirby Jackson and @GunnerBill

 

Cheers boys...good convo, good counter points.  I still not sold on them potentially becoming a dynasty as I still think the Zeke and Cooper deals were mistakes and Dak situation is going to get messy.  But still enjoyed the opposing dialogue.  Hopefully I am right thought because the only Dynasty we want to see is a BILLS DYNASTY!  Am I right?  HAHA Cheers

 

My NFL rooting interests are very simple.

 

1. Buffalo Bills

2. Drew Brees to get another ring

 

I couldn't care less who does or doesn't win after that.

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