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Cover 1 article: Brandon Beane’s Draft tendencies

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https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/5/1/17305318/draft-pick-team-philosophy-colts-ravens-bears-titans

 

Colts draft for need and revamp offensive line to smash mouth.

Ravens pick multiple tight ends because their system needs them.

Bears go win now and replace MLB,  fill in for departed #2 wide receiver and guard

 

https://www.windycitygridiron.com/2011/3/11/2044579/top-draft-philosophies-in-the-nfl-today-part-1-the-belichick

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So, simply stated, BB's philosophy consists of drafting a lot of smart players every year who fit his character mold first while still fitting the scheme and, of course still possessing NFL athleticism though not necessarily at an elite level.

 

https://www.giants.com/news/what-is-the-giants-draft-strategy-in-2020

 

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"...Wherever the Giants select in any round, Gettleman will adhere to his philosophy regarding player selection.

"Best player," he said. "You want to use unrestricted free agency to put yourself in a position so that you can draft the best player. More often than not when you draft for need, you're going to make a mistake."

 

Well, I see the Bills working hard with FA and planning for the draft, so that when they draft, the "BPA" or close to it, is also at a position of need  and also gets a superior athlete.  By the way, if the Giants have such a great plan,,, why are they always drafting so high?

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d82857c66/article/bill-walshs-nfl-draft-philosophies-six-lessons-from-the-master
 

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5) "Never take the one-year wonder and look forward; take the one-year wonder and look back." After Walsh was burned by a one-year wonder in the 1987 draft -- Clemson running back Terrence Flagler -- he became skeptical of limited track records. I

6) "The first year we will teach the players the system, the second year we will develop their skills within the system." Walsh thought overloading a rookie with the entire playbook was a bad mistake

 

High ceiling, shown they can do it

 

http://www.creamcitycentral.com/sports/packers-new-draft-philosophy/

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With little exception, the Packers have exceptional athletes at positions of need. If you’re a potential NFL pick you’re a good athlete, but amongst the many NFL players there are those that separate themselves from the rest. Rather than focus on any particular metric, such as speed, strength, lateral quickness, etc., a look at the overall athletic picture of the Packers draft picks of the past two years paints an interesting picture. One such metric that combines size, strength, speed, explosion, and lateral quickness is called Relative Athletic Score, or RAS.

But earlier, the Packers were heavy into getting a lot of picks and building only through the draft. It should be noted that they started with a good well balanced team and had a top QB for decades.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2018-nfl-draft-new-packers-gm-blended-philosophies-of-ted-thompson-howie-roseman/

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From 2005 through 2017, the Green Bay Packers were run by Ted Thompson. Widely considered one of the best general managers in football for the majority of that tenure, Thompson became known in and around the league for adhering closely to a few distinct tendencies. 

First, he almost never made major forays into free agency, preferring instead to replenish Green Bay's talent base through the draft. During Thompson's 13 years at the helm, the Packers signed exactly four players from opposing teams to multi-year free-agent deals worth double-digit million dollars in aggregate. (Ryan Pickett and Charles Woodson in 2006, Julius Peppers in 2014, and Martellus Bennett in 2017.) 

Second, when it came to the draft, Thompson loved to make trades. More specifically, he loved to trade down in order to acquire extra selections and accumulate value. Thanks to the invaluable ProSportsTransactions.com logs, we were able to review every single trade Thompson made involving a draft pick during his tenure as general manager. There were 46 in all. Thompson traded a pick for a player three times. He traded a player for a pick 10 times. He traded up in the draft nine times. And he traded down in the draft 21 times in 13 years.

 

 

 

I like what I think Beane is doing and there seems to be a lot of variations. 

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19 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Stop trading up.  It’s annoying. 

 

I'll tell you what's annoying....

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19 hours ago, Logic said:

Great article at the link below.

 

The reasoning makes absolute sense to me. While Beane spent premium capitol on the WR position and acquired a 26-year-old stud, he only put short term band-aids on the CB2 position (Norman, Gaines), the LE position (Addison), and the RT (Williams) and LB (Klein) positions.

 

As such, and given Beane’s penchant for “doubling down” on need positions in FA and the draft, it’s logical to expect early picks to be spent on EDGE, CB, RT, or LB, with a WR and RB only being taken in the later rounds.

 

 

https://www.cover1.net/buffalo-bills-brandon-beane-nfl-draft-tendencies/

 

Since arriving in Buffalo, Brandon Beane has preached his desire to address needs in free agency to allow him the freedom to draft the best player available. Over his two offseasons in Buffalo, Beane has acquired 36 players between the conclusion of the regular season and the NFL Draft, and he’s drafted 16 players. Of these 16 players, only four of them were at a position that Beane did not address via free agency or a trade prior to the draft. Seventy-five percent of the drafted players are at a position that Beane had already acquired a player at earlier in the offseason.....

 

 

...After processing all of the information that’s been laid out above, it seems that Brandon Beane may be looking to address cornerback, right tackle, edge rusher, and/or linebacker in the draft. With the way that Beane has drafted in the past, I would say it’s highly unlikely to see a receiver drafted high, and the chances of a running back being drafted high aren’t favorable. However, it’s important to note that this is all speculation with no strict rule.

 

 

 

 

 

Very logical. Interesting look at the parallels between how he drafted and correlating with what he'd already done at that position during the offseason.

 

Thoughtful and would make a ton of sense. Excellent predictions, it would appear.

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Posted (edited)

The article is correct, but Beane’s methodology is pretty standard roster building in the NFL.  Filling needs with high priced FAs or short term band aid players that are capable of starting while you draft prospects you plan on becoming long term starters is how most GMs operate.  I also agree with Cover1’s prediction that the Bills will look to draft a CB, RT, Edge and LB in the draft (particularly the first 3). 

Edited by BarleyNY

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

 

What the Bills have done the last 3 years is to set themselves to improve the roster the most.

I think the sequence goes something like this:

 

1.  Examine the roster and see where we need improvement. Where you want to be is having superior core players, no glaring weaknesses and some cheap develop players filling up some of the extra roster spots.

 

 2. Look at the upcoming draft and rank the players by their quality. "Big Board"

 

3.  Look at what the other teams are likely to draft when. This gives you a modified Big Board which has who will  be available at the Bills picks.  They also have to consider some attributes of the players by how they might fit into the Bill's locker room character and offense/defense system.  T A "process guy" gets ranked different than a diva.  A zone blocker gets rated different than a power blocker.

 

4.  Get this idea who and what might be available in the draft and take another look at your roster and it's needs. Go into free agency and improve the positions, that you may not improve in the draft. 

 

5.  You now are in a good place to go into the draft.  You can move draft the "BPA" at a position of need.  You might want to jump ahead 5-10 slots to get this guy, if you think somebody else is going to pick him ahead of you. (the Bills have done this twice in the early rounds in the last 3 drafts).  Sometimes you might be able to move back a couple of spots and still get your guy- but that is risky.

 

6. The Bills have used the draft to get superior core players.  Often a player is characterized as having a value, floor and ceiling.  I think the Bills have used the drafted players with a greater emphasis on a high ceiling than value (plug & play early value) or high floor". They also seem to want superior athletes, who will have more upside.   A real good, try-hard guy, who is making every last bit of his abilities to rank high is NOT taken over a guy who is a better athlete but raw and underdeveloped. Shooting for all-pro potential. Get them cheap on a rookie contract.  You will need superior players to beat good teams in the playoffs.

 

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/cowboys/news/cowboys-mock-draft-best-available-player-doesnt-work-nfl-jerry-jeudy

 

 

No to the first sentence highlighted in red above ... they don't " I see what you mean, and they do fill the gaps in FA, but you say they fill positions they might not be able to address in the draft," as you say. Just the opposite is shown by their tendencies as the article points out. There's a ton of correlation between positions they improved in FA and where they drafted. Beane has said again and again that they fill the holes in FA, so they can avoid reaching during the draft.

 

It's not that if they look at positions in the draft where they want to go and fill the others with FAs. Just the opposite, they fill gaps with FAs going by position so that they won't be forced to look at any position in the draft because they still have major holes. As pointed out in the article, there is a ton of correlation between positions they improved in FA and where they drafted.

 

And no to the second sentence highlighted in red above ... they did indeed trade up significantly (more than the two spots up they traded for Cody Ford, giving up one of their two fifth-rounders) twice in the early rounds, but both of them were in 2018, the year when they had traded away a whole ton of guys to accumulate draft capital to move up to get Josh Allen. They'd agreed to a deal with the Broncos at #5 which would have cost them a lot more of that draft capital till the Broncos backed out. So both of those early tradeups, Allen and Edmunds, came in a year when they'd accumulated a lot of extra picks, including some pretty early ones. This year they've done the opposite, trading away their precious first rounder and leaving themselves only one round

 

They've only made significant early tradeups in a year when they had a ton of trade material. This year they have far fewer high picks than normal, and only one round, the sixth, with more than one pick. And those are the picks they have traded away to move up. If they trade up significantly early, they will be directly breaking their tendencies.

 

And no to the third passage highlighted in red above ... they haven't chosen try hard guys over great athletes as a consistent trend. They've gone both ways. Harrison Phillips, Taron Johnson, Wyatt Teller, Cody Ford, Jaquan Johnson, Darryl Johnson and Tommy Sweeney are all not especially athletic, they're guys who produced well are smart and worked hard. That's a lot of our draftees. At the very least it destroys your narrative that we want better athletes rather than try-hard guys. This FO goes both ways on that issue.

Edited by Thurman#1

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20 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

I could see him standing pat at 2 and 3, and then packaging our 4th, 5th, 6th, 6th, and 7th to move back into the 3rd.

 

Get 3 quality picks who actually have a shot at making the team AND even contributing this year. After the 4th, I dont think there will be any talent there that could supplant current starters, or even current veteran depth.

I don't see it. During the next few years White, Edmunds, Allen, Milano, Dawkins and Oliver are going to get paid, and those new contracts are going to have to be offset by a lot of new rookie contracts. It won't be long before the Bills won't be able to afford the free agent depth of low-tier starter contracts, and will need the draft to fill those spots. Beane's always three steps ahead, so I'm guessing he keeps all of his draft picks and gives them every chance to stick. If not, that's an acceptable risk, and they can identify some for the practice squad. 

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16 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

Beane has either been very lucky that the best player available has been a player of need (early) or like any sensible GM he tries to take need into account when drafting. 

 

2017 - Drafts Tre White after losing Gilmore, Dawkins was drafted when RT was a need and Glenn was banged up at LT and Zay was drafted when Robert Woods left. 

2018- Team desperately needs a QB and they get Allen and the team needed a MLB after P.Brown walked and they drafted Edumonds.

2019- Drafts Ed Oliver after Kyle Williams retires and there weren't many proven options at DT on the roster and Cody Ford also filled a need at RT (And Knox and Singletary were also need picks in round 3.)

 

I think looking at what positions McBeane has drafted there is no sign that he has taken BPA all the time or even most of the time. He takes need into account but will not reach either. 

 

I think they made the right choice not trading up for the other Josh Allen and staying at pick 9 and getting Ed Oliver. I think to trade up to pick 6 or 5 to get ahead of Jacksonville would have been costly (At least the Bills 3rd round pick and 5th round pick) and as much as I like DE Josh Allen I think Oliver might be just as good at an equally premium position. 

Beane's been very clear about what he does.  He takes BPA, except if there's a guy on board who is the BPA and also is a player of need, he will trade up.  That's what he did for Allen, Edmunds and Ford.  Did he also go up for Singletary?

 

Oliver was just good luck.  BPA was also of need. 

 

Didn't trade up for the other Josh because he wasn't a player of need.  

 

It's pretty simple.  

 

I'd say the potential for a trade up is at running back - he needs one, despite what he says about Yeldon.   Maybe edge, but he doesn't really need one this year.  Like one but doesn't need one. 

 

No way I see him going up for a receiver.  If a receiver is the BPA he will take him, but he won't chase one. 

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Posted (edited)
40 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Beane's been very clear about what he does.  He takes BPA, except if there's a guy on board who is the BPA and also is a player of need, he will trade up.  That's what he did for Allen, Edmunds and Ford.  Did he also go up for Singletary?

 

Oliver was just good luck.  BPA was also of need. 

 

Didn't trade up for the other Josh because he wasn't a player of need.  

 

It's pretty simple.  

 

I'd say the potential for a trade up is at running back - he needs one, despite what he says about Yeldon.   Maybe edge, but he doesn't really need one this year.  Like one but doesn't need one. 

 

No way I see him going up for a receiver.  If a receiver is the BPA he will take him, but he won't chase one. 

 

Last year he went up for Knox, not Singletary. And I agree that he will make the move for the guys he targets if he things the value is there. 

Edited by MrEpsYtown

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Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

Beane has either been very lucky that the best player available has been a player of need (early) or like any sensible GM he tries to take need into account when drafting. 

 

2017 - Drafts Tre White after losing Gilmore, Dawkins was drafted when RT was a need and Glenn was banged up at LT and Zay was drafted when Robert Woods left. 

2018- Team desperately needs a QB and they get Allen and the team needed a MLB after P.Brown walked and they drafted Edumonds.

2019- Drafts Ed Oliver after Kyle Williams retires and there weren't many proven options at DT on the roster and Cody Ford also filled a need at RT (And Knox and Singletary were also need picks in round 3.)

 

I think looking at what positions McBeane has drafted there is no sign that he has taken BPA all the time or even most of the time. He takes need into account but will not reach either. 

 

I think they made the right choice not trading up for the other Josh Allen and staying at pick 9 and getting Ed Oliver. I think to trade up to pick 6 or 5 to get ahead of Jacksonville would have been costly (At least the Bills 3rd round pick and 5th round pick) and as much as I like DE Josh Allen I think Oliver might be just as good at an equally premium position. 

You described it correctly. All smart GMs draft for need, they just disguise it by calling it BPA at need, drafting strictly BPA doesn’t work, you could end up with seven WRs two years in a row, if you get my drift. For example; If you need a DT you gotta have the DT, so you draft the BPA at your need relevant your board of course.  Even if your roster is stacked, going strictly BPA doesn’t allow for correct depth allocation, and will bite you in the azs when a player or five get injured. You can’t put that BPA WR you drafted in at DT...  because you don’t always get who you want in free agency...
 

Go Bills!!!

Edited by Don Otreply
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25 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

You described it correctly. All smart GMs draft for need, they just disguise it by calling it BPA at need, drafting strictly BPA doesn’t work, you could end up with seven WRs two years in a row, if you get my drift. For example; If you need a DT you gotta have the DT, so you draft the BPA at your need relevant your board of course.  Even if your roster is stacked, going strictly BPA doesn’t allow for correct depth allocation, and will bite you in the azs when a player or five get injured. You can’t put that BPA WR you drafted in at DT...  because you don’t always get who you want in free agency...
 

Go Bills!!!

So you mean Beane has been lying to us for three years?   He knows he drafts for need, but he's telling all of us he drafts BPA?   

 

Or do you think that Beane is not a smart GM, because smart GMs draft for need?   So Beane is stupid?

 

Why is it so hard to believe what he's been telling us for three years?   In the early rounds he drafts BPA, and then as he moves to the later rounds he moves toward need.   In the early rounds if he sees a guy on the board who meets an important need and is also the BPA on the board, he will try to trade up to get him.    His two drafts have followed this pattern. 

 

He's happy to meet his needs, to fill holes, in free agency - he doesn't plan on them long-term, but short-term   The entire offensive line, with the exception of Morse, was short-term meeting needs.   Gore was meeting needs.   Brown and Beasley were meeting needs.    

 

The free agent linemen last year were short-term; Ford was long-term.  AJ Klein was short-term; Edmunds was long-term.  Gore was short-term; Singletary was long-term.   He does it all the time, and it's exactly what he has told us he does. 

 

But you go ahead believing that he actually uses his first and second round picks for need.   

 

 

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27 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

So you mean Beane has been lying to us for three years?   He knows he drafts for need, but he's telling all of us he drafts BPA?   

 

Or do you think that Beane is not a smart GM, because smart GMs draft for need?   So Beane is stupid?

 

Why is it so hard to believe what he's been telling us for three years?   In the early rounds he drafts BPA, and then as he moves to the later rounds he moves toward need.   In the early rounds if he sees a guy on the board who meets an important need and is also the BPA on the board, he will try to trade up to get him.    His two drafts have followed this pattern. 

 

He's happy to meet his needs, to fill holes, in free agency - he doesn't plan on them long-term, but short-term   The entire offensive line, with the exception of Morse, was short-term meeting needs.   Gore was meeting needs.   Brown and Beasley were meeting needs.    

 

The free agent linemen last year were short-term; Ford was long-term.  AJ Klein was short-term; Edmunds was long-term.  Gore was short-term; Singletary was long-term.   He does it all the time, and it's exactly what he has told us he does. 

 

But you go ahead believing that he actually uses his first and second round picks for need.   

 

 

Like it or not DT was a need, we filled it in the 1st round. Strictly drafting BPA only happens occasionally, the vast majority of the time it is BPA at a position of need, all the way to the seventh pick.  BPA is based on the teams board, which is a list of needs. We will have to agree to disagree on this, we evidently see this differently. What team picks a player that does not fill a need, as a starter, depth or developmentally? 
 

Go Bills!!!

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6 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

That doesn't work. Those two were bit players for one or two games.

 

If your point is that the PS is not worth it's time I would have to differ.

With the new CBA rules concerning the PS I think it will become even more important.

Odds are you are not getting pro bowl players but it does develop depth if done right.

Here is the Bills 2018 PS initial roster.

 

Bills 2018 practice squad

Players added to the Bills' practice squad will be listed here with tweets of the news to follow.

  • OL Gerhard de Beer
  • WR Cam Phillips
  • S Dean Marlowe
  • RB Keith Ford
  • DE Mike Love
  • LB Corey Thompson
  • CB Levi Wallace
  • T De'Ondre Wesley
  • OL Ruben Holcomb
  • DT Robert Thomas
 
 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Like it or not DT was a need, we filled it in the 1st round. Strictly drafting BPA only happens occasionally, the vast majority of the time it is BPA at a position of need, all the way to the seventh pick.  BPA is based on the teams board, which is a list of needs. We will have to agree to disagree on this, we evidently see this differently. What team picks a player that does not fill a need, as a starter, depth or developmentally? 
 

Go Bills!!!

The reality of running an NFL team is that you always have holes and you always have needs.     If you drive your personnel decisions by need, you're always chasing needs, and the overall team talent suffers.   And you still have needs, because you always have needs.  

 

Whaley chased needs, and the result was that he filled the team with mediocre talent.   He gave big contracts to Taylor and Hughes and Glenn - he boasted about having the six high-compensation players that a team needs and can afford, but all his high compensation players were mediocre.   That's what happens when you chase needs.   

 

If you draft for talent and plug holes with free agency, over time you've filled the team with talent.   If you draft for need, you're always chasing talent, and your roster is never as strong as the best teams.   

 

Except for quarterback, it doesn't matter what positions your talent plays.    If you've got four or five non-QB stars, it doesn't matter if they're olinemen or dlinemen or dbs, or receivers.   You're still going to have needs, and fill those needs in free agency.   That's exactly what Beane is doing.   

 

Diggs was the BPA at #18, and Beane had the 22nd pick.   That's what Beane told us.  He also had a need at receiver.   When the BPA ahead of him in the draft is a player at a position of need, he will consider trading up.   That's exactly what he did.   He had the 22nd pick, Diggs was the BPA at 18, so Beane went and got him.   If he couldn't make the deal for Diggs, he was NOT going to use the 22nd pick on a receiver unless a receiver was #1 on his board.    He'd go BPA and find a receiver in the third or fourth round, which is where he starts filling needs.  

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Beane seems to have a good idea what guys are gonna be available at his pick in the draft and acts accordingly in free agency prior to the draft.  Judging by who we did and didn’t sign in free agency, it looks like RB is big possibility in rounds 2 or 3.  Same with CB/nickel LB.  And if an edge rusher or WR is highest on his board, I’d think he go there too.  Can’t see Beane using a 2nd or 3rd rounder on a QB, OL, or DT in this draft.  If one of those 3 positions are highest on his board, then you consider trading down.  

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14 hours ago, HardyBoy said:

 

Wrong question...what 5th, 6th, 7th round picks and ufas that this regime has drafted are legit nfl players? A good number and they're really good at finding value there.

 

I totally hear what you're saying, they're at a point where going for one premium is better than extra above avereage, but I think sustained success comes from having the middle of the roster being cheap quality depth. Building your depth through the draft by getting players who either are highly interchangeable within the various aspects of your overall scheme or have a skill that allows them to be used very specifically within a specific piece of that scheme that allows them to be almost elite because they are great at the things you are needing them to do.

I disagree with part of what you said. 

Quote

"Building your depth through the draft by getting players who either are highly interchangeable .

.."    I think it is better and the Bills are doing the following.  Look for high ceiling athletes rather than backups in the middle and late rounds.  You can fill the back up players with veterans who have a track record and the

Quote

are highly interchangeable within the various aspects of your overall scheme or have a skill that allows them to be used very specifically within a specific piece of that scheme

fits right in.   The Patriots have been doing good with fielding a collection of one-trick ponies who are very good with that one trick and Bellycheck knows how to use them.

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On 4/6/2020 at 12:35 PM, DCOrange said:

Makes sense to me, though playing devil's advocate:

  1. It's been two drafts. Doesn't necessarily mean it's a trend more than it is a coincidence.
  2. I think it could be reasonably argued that the roster is in a different place now than it was the previous two years and therefore, our strategy may be different now.
  3. I don't think RB and safety can be written off just because we haven't addressed them yet (we also could theoretically still address them before the draft though I highly doubt we'd sign a safety).
  4. Given the strength of the WR class, there's a decent chance the BPA in the 2nd or 3rd round is a WR, in which case I don't think it can be written off either.

Overall though, I do tend to think our first pick will be in the secondary or trenches, and that fits this article's conclusion.

To point #4, especially when you consider Beasley is turning 31 and Brown is turning 30, both this month. While not necessarily old, in a class this deep, it would be a good long term move to snag a kid that can learn behind them for a season or two. Wont be asked to do too much too early, which can be an issue with younger WRs (at times).

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3 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

Last year he went up for Knox, not Singletary. And I agree that he will make the move for the guys he targets if he things the value is there. 

Well, the highest I saw Singletary ranked at RB was #8 and most mock drafts had him as a 4th  round guy and the Bills took him early in the 3rd. It was a little reach but has turned out okay.   We could get a RB in the second round who is better, has more speed and is a better pass receiver to help Allen with escape hot passes and taking advantage of deepzones used against Brown and Diggs.

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

So you mean Beane has been lying to us for three years?   He knows he drafts for need, but he's telling all of us he drafts BPA?   

 

Or do you think that Beane is not a smart GM, because smart GMs draft for need?   So Beane is stupid?

 

Why is it so hard to believe what he's been telling us for three years?   In the early rounds he drafts BPA, and then as he moves to the later rounds he moves toward need.   In the early rounds if he sees a guy on the board who meets an important need and is also the BPA on the board, he will try to trade up to get him.    His two drafts have followed this pattern. 

 

He's happy to meet his needs, to fill holes, in free agency - he doesn't plan on them long-term, but short-term   The entire offensive line, with the exception of Morse, was short-term meeting needs.   Gore was meeting needs.   Brown and Beasley were meeting needs.    

 

The free agent linemen last year were short-term; Ford was long-term.  AJ Klein was short-term; Edmunds was long-term.  Gore was short-term; Singletary was long-term.   He does it all the time, and it's exactly what he has told us he does. 

 

But you go ahead believing that he actually uses his first and second round picks for need.   

 

 

I disagree.  He drafts athletic, high ceiling core players early and looks for home run shots in the lower rounds.  He fills a lot of needs with cheaper veteran FA;s and is then in the position in the draft to take a BPA at a position of need or some guy who is BPA by far because he dropped 10-15 slots.

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1 hour ago, Don Otreply said:

Like it or not DT was a need, we filled it in the 1st round. Strictly drafting BPA only happens occasionally, the vast majority of the time it is BPA at a position of need, all the way to the seventh pick.  BPA is based on the teams board, which is a list of needs. We will have to agree to disagree on this, we evidently see this differently. What team picks a player that does not fill a need, as a starter, depth or developmentally? 
 

Go Bills!!!

...and here is the Buffalo Bills starting line up.  At offensive line, 5 players, originally drafted as centers.....

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3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

The reality of running an NFL team is that you always have holes and you always have needs.     If you drive your personnel decisions by need, you're always chasing needs, and the overall team talent suffers.   And you still have needs, because you always have needs.  

 

Whaley chased needs, and the result was that he filled the team with mediocre talent.   He gave big contracts to Taylor and Hughes and Glenn - he boasted about having the six high-compensation players that a team needs and can afford, but all his high compensation players were mediocre.   That's what happens when you chase needs.   

 

If you draft for talent and plug holes with free agency, over time you've filled the team with talent.   If you draft for need, you're always chasing talent, and your roster is never as strong as the best teams.   

 

Except for quarterback, it doesn't matter what positions your talent plays.    If you've got four or five non-QB stars, it doesn't matter if they're olinemen or dlinemen or dbs, or receivers.   You're still going to have needs, and fill those needs in free agency.   That's exactly what Beane is doing.   

 

Diggs was the BPA at #18, and Beane had the 22nd pick.   That's what Beane told us.  He also had a need at receiver.   When the BPA ahead of him in the draft is a player at a position of need, he will consider trading up.   That's exactly what he did.   He had the 22nd pick, Diggs was the BPA at 18, so Beane went and got him.   If he couldn't make the deal for Diggs, he was NOT going to use the 22nd pick on a receiver unless a receiver was #1 on his board.    He'd go BPA and find a receiver in the third or fourth round, which is where he starts filling needs.  

Both FA & Draft address needs, talent is a need addressed mostly in the draft, every player brought in during FA addressed a need for talent at a given position, all acquisitions are needs, no one ever brings a player onto a team if it does not address a need. Both FA & draft are 100 percent need driven. 
Semantics... the real difference is payroll costs. 
 

Go Bills!!!

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Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

Like it or not DT was a need, we filled it in the 1st round. Strictly drafting BPA only happens occasionally, the vast majority of the time it is BPA at a position of need, all the way to the seventh pick.  BPA is based on the teams board, which is a list of needs. We will have to agree to disagree on this, we evidently see this differently. What team picks a player that does not fill a need, as a starter, depth or developmentally? 
 

Go Bills!!!

 

 

We like that DT was a need. But it is also extremely clear that Ed Oliver was the BPA. He probably had been for a couple of picks. When BPA meets need, that's heaven.

 

And the board isn't a list of team needs. Singletary wasn't a need last year when we still had McCoy and Gore, with Yeldon on top of that. They wanted to make that group younger and add competition, but it wasn't a need. Yeah, they may drop a guy down a little bit if they don't have a need, but it's still a list of their opinion on BPA. Realistically, there are some positions that teams will not draft, especially in the first few rounds. If the BPA when we pick is clearly QB on their board, they shouldn't draft a guy who would be seen as competition for Allen, but at that point, you can trade back a bit to a QB-hungry team and go BPA when your pick comes up again a few spots later. Picking a "developmental" QB, on the other hand, could easily make sense.

 

You're right that no team picks a player that "does not fill a need, as a starter, depth or developmentally." That's because if you throw your net that wide open, every team has a need at every position. If you're throwing in depth or development on top of starters and competition, there are no non-needs. Even if you're thrilled with every single player you have at one position, two or three years down the road you have no idea what will have happened, whether you'll have to let a guy go for contract reasons or injury reasons. You're likely to be thrilled you took a development guy even when you had no need. Every position is a need if you include depth and development wants.

 

That's why BPA matters. It doesn't force you to pick someone you don't want; you can trade to avoid that. But it stops you from reaching for need. And reaching is a very human mistake. That's why they work like dogs bringing in FAs at positions of need to eliminate the hunger for drafting for need.

Edited by Thurman#1
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