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John from Riverside

Diggs vs the WR field in the draft

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I think the best wr in the draft goes rd 2.  Situation is big imo.  I still think Jeudy or Lamb will be close to Diggs in quality if on the right teams.  This is a very deep wr.  The move for Buffalo was trading for Diggs.  I believe the guy they draft at 54, was also on the short list to draft at 22.  Covid-19 is making the draft 100 times more compeling.  Multiple teams management structure and scouting is about to be put on blast.  If ever there was a year to move out of a fringe spot it was this year.

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32 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

I think the best wr in the draft goes rd 2.  Situation is big imo.  I still think Jeudy or Lamb will be close to Diggs in quality if on the right teams.  This is a very deep wr.  The move for Buffalo was trading for Diggs.  I believe the guy they draft at 54, was also on the short list to draft at 22.  Covid-19 is making the draft 100 times more compeling.  Multiple teams management structure and scouting is about to be put on blast.  If ever there was a year to move out of a fringe spot it was this year.

 

Who?

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9 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Who?

I dont have 1 player.  The class has enough depth where I think one of the guys who goes in rd 2 out performs the guys projected to go higher.  Higgins, Claypool, Hamler, Mims, Aiyuk maybe someone like Jefferson falls.  One of those guys landing in the right spot out performs the top drafted guys.  There isnt a physical freak no brainer top wr.  Guys projected to go later are freakier than the guys going early.  

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Posted (edited)

 

Below are the career stats for the WRs the year Diggs was drafted.  Drafting WR is a total crap shoot.  The first two numbers after the year "2015" is the draft round and overall draft number. The last three numbers in the columns are : Catches / Yards Receiving / TDs

 

1 2015 1 4 Amari Cooper WR 21 OAK 2015 2019 0 4 5 39 77 72 8 27 0 357 5097 33 Alabama College Stats
2 2015 1 7 Kevin White WR 23 CHI 2016 2018 0 0 0 2 14 5 1 9 0 25 285 0 West Virginia College Stats
3 2015 1 14 DeVante Parker WR 22 MIA 2015 2019 0 0 3 23 70 45       235 3419 18 Louisville College Stats
4 2015 1 20 Nelson Agholor WR 22 PHI 2015 2019 0 0 5 21 71 62 11 60 0 224 2515 18 USC College Stats
5 2015 1 26 Breshad Perriman WR 21 BAL 2016 2019 0 0 0 11 51 10 7 20 0 95 1561 11 Central Florida College Stats
6 2015 1 29 Phillip Dorsett WR 22 IND 2015 2019 0 0 0 14 71 15 13 84 0 124 1634 11 Miami (FL) College Stats
7 2015 2 37 Devin Smith WR 23 NYJ 2015 2019 0 0 0 2 18 5       15 248 2 Ohio St. College Stats
8 2015 2 40 Dorial Green-Beckham WR 22 TEN 2015 2016 0 0 0 7 31 12       68 941 6 Oklahoma College Stats
9 2015 3 69 Tyler Lockett WR 22 SEA 2015 2019 1 1 4 37 79 55 38 256 1 276 3838 27 Kansas St. College Stats
10 2015 3 70 Jaelen Strong WR 21 HOU 2015 2017 0 0 0 2 20 3       31 330 4 Arizona St. College Stats
11 2015 3 76 Chris Conley WR 22 KAN 2015 2019 0 0 3 18 69 48       151 2013 11 Georgia College Stats
12 2015 3 87 Sammie Coates WR 22 PIT 2015 2018 0 0 0 4 45 6 4 14 0 29 528 2 Auburn College Stats
13 2015 3 94 Ty Montgomery WR 22 GNB 2015 2019 0 0 0 15 58 16 224 1035 7 120 982 3 Stanford College Stats
14 2015 4 105 Jamison Crowder WR 22 WAS 2015 2019 0 0 2 25 72 40 16 68 0 299 3461 20 Duke College Stats
15 2015 4 107 Justin Hardy WR 23 ATL 2015 2019 0 0 0 8 73 6       95 946 9 East Carolina College Stats
16 2015 4 123 Vince Mayle WR 24 CLE 2015 2017 0 0 0 0 23 0 2 2 1       Washington St. College Stats
17 2015 4 132 DeAndre Smelter WR 23 SFO 2016 2016 0 0 0 0 2 0       1 23 0 Georgia Tech  
18 2015 5 139 Rashad Greene WR 22 JAX 2015 2018 0 0 0 2 25 1       30 185 2 Florida St. College Stats
19 2015 5 146 Stefon Diggs WR 21 MIN 2015 2019 0 0 5 40 70 63 29 159 0 365 4623 30 Maryland College Stats
20 2015 5 156 Tony Lippett WR 23 MIA 2015 2018 0 0 1 6 28 13             Michigan St. College Stats
21 2015 5 159 JJ Nelson WR 23 ARI 2015 2019 0 0 0 12 58 16 12 120 1 85 1475 11 Ala-Birmingham  
22 2015 5 162 Kenny Bell WR 23 TAM     0 0 0                   Nebraska College Stats
23 2015 5 175 Keith Mumphery WR 23 HOU 2015 2016 0 0 0 2 27 6       24 198 0 Michigan St.  
24 2015 6 184 Kaelin Clay WR 23 TAM 2015 2018 0 0 0 3 22 2 3 27 0 6 85 0 Utah College Stats
25 2015 6 186 Geremy Davis WR 23 NYG 2015 2019 0 0 0 0 36 1       5 59 0 Connecticut College Stats
26 2015 6 187 Evan Spencer WR 22 WAS 2015 2015 0 0 0 0 1 0             Ohio St. College Stats
27 2015 6 201 Bud Sasser WR   STL     0 0 0                   Missouri College Stats
28 2015 6 204 Darren Waller WR 22 BAL

 

 

Edited by Inigo Montoya

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41 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

I dont have 1 player.  The class has enough depth where I think one of the guys who goes in rd 2 out performs the guys projected to go higher.  Higgins, Claypool, Hamler, Mims, Aiyuk maybe someone like Jefferson falls.  One of those guys landing in the right spot out performs the top drafted guys.  There isnt a physical freak no brainer top wr.  Guys projected to go later are freakier than the guys going early.  

 

Oh.  I'm sure there will be players picked outside of round 1 who will be successful.  The question is finding them.  I'd rather take the sure thing in Diggs.

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3 hours ago, Doc said:

 

Oh.  I'm sure there will be players picked outside of round 1 who will be successful.  The question is finding them.  I'd rather take the sure thing in Diggs.

Exactly. Even if they went wr at 54 they could find the best.

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18 hours ago, 947 said:

Just imagine if we'd drafted Kupp instead of Zay...

 

18 hours ago, Doc said:

 

Or Godwin.  Or JuJu.  Or Golliday. 


 

I can and with the bad QB play - lack of offensive talent - and lack of teaching at that position the first year or 2 - I can see us all standing here complaining about them being busts and wishing we had drafted the other guys still.

 

Kupp, JuJu, and even Godwin went to teams where they were expected to be 2s and 3s with established veterans WRs, coaches that were open in the passing game, and QBs to deliver the ball.

 

In Buffalo, they would have been on a team with TT throwing the ball and they would have been the #1 WR. Then a rookie QB drafted with a terrible o-line.

 

They may have been better Zay, but I do not believe any of them are even half as good as they are on their current team.  Situation matters and no WR in that draft was coming to Buffalo and succeeding- the offense was still 3 years away from developing.

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Here's the thing, man.

 

The reason people are saying this is the best WR class ever is NOT because it has two or three elite prospects.

It's because there are about 10 WR this year who are actually worth a first or second round pick.

 

At pick 22, you would get a guy with similar talent as pick 54. So, if you really want to take a chance on another upside WR, just take one!

This is one of those rare "have your cake and eat it too" scenarios. One of these guys in the second round is going to be a star, too.

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1 hour ago, Rochesterfan said:

I can and with the bad QB play - lack of offensive talent - and lack of teaching at that position the first year or 2 - I can see us all standing here complaining about them being busts and wishing we had drafted the other guys still.

 

Kupp, JuJu, and even Godwin went to teams where they were expected to be 2s and 3s with established veterans WRs, coaches that were open in the passing game, and QBs to deliver the ball.

 

In Buffalo, they would have been on a team with TT throwing the ball and they would have been the #1 WR. Then a rookie QB drafted with a terrible o-line.

 

They may have been better Zay, but I do not believe any of them are even half as good as they are on their current team.  Situation matters and no WR in that draft was coming to Buffalo and succeeding- the offense was still 3 years away from developing.

 

They might not have put up the big numbers they have, but they'd have shown more than what Zay did and been with the team for more than just 2-1/3 seasons.

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On 4/5/2020 at 9:40 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

Kupp isn't close to Diggs. 

 

 

Come on!  Give a little lol.

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32 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

They might not have put up the big numbers they have, but they'd have shown more than what Zay did and been with the team for more than just 2-1/3 seasons.


 

I don’t disagree Doc, but look at JuJu this year as a number 1 similar to what Zay was forced to do.   Juju had little offensive help, bad QB play, and his numbers dropped to right Zay Jones 2018 levels.  Yes he was injured a couple of games, but his averages per game were only slightly better than Zay’s.  
 

I look at JuJu last year and think that is what he would have been for the Bills if drafted instead of Zay.  He would not have been the dynamic WR2 we saw in 2017 + 2018.  It is harder to say with Kupp and Godwin because both are parts of WR corps that have at other top end WRs and in some cases multiple top options - allowing them to be more free.  I tend to believe if like JuJu they were the lone WR threat - always drawing the #1 CB and potential double coverage and the QB was TT level - there numbers would drop just as JuJu’s did and people would look at these same guys differently.

 

For example - let’s say that the Bills drafted JuJu and for the 3 years he put up numbers like last year on the Steelers (pretty reasonable for what he showed as a #1).  He averages 40 catches and around 600 yards and 3 TDs.  Then you compare that to Kupp and Godwin and everyone is complaining about how we missed on JuJu.  In fact there is already discussion in Pittsburgh about trading and/or allowing JuJu to walk after this season because he is not a true number 1 WR.  
 

Of course the backside of that is what would Zay Jones have looked like if he had been drafted into any of those other teams.  As a number 2 in Pittsburgh or TB with little pressure - could he have been a better player.  I think the ultimate fit would have been Zay in LA rather than Kupp.  Zay learning under Woods and getting to run routes out of the slot as a #3 option.  I think his career would be different - not Kupp good, but better than we saw.

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16 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

I don’t disagree Doc, but look at JuJu this year as a number 1 similar to what Zay was forced to do.   Juju had little offensive help, bad QB play, and his numbers dropped to right Zay Jones 2018 levels.  Yes he was injured a couple of games, but his averages per game were only slightly better than Zay’s.  
 

I look at JuJu last year and think that is what he would have been for the Bills if drafted instead of Zay.  He would not have been the dynamic WR2 we saw in 2017 + 2018.  It is harder to say with Kupp and Godwin because both are parts of WR corps that have at other top end WRs and in some cases multiple top options - allowing them to be more free.  I tend to believe if like JuJu they were the lone WR threat - always drawing the #1 CB and potential double coverage and the QB was TT level - there numbers would drop just as JuJu’s did and people would look at these same guys differently.

 

For example - let’s say that the Bills drafted JuJu and for the 3 years he put up numbers like last year on the Steelers (pretty reasonable for what he showed as a #1).  He averages 40 catches and around 600 yards and 3 TDs.  Then you compare that to Kupp and Godwin and everyone is complaining about how we missed on JuJu.  In fact there is already discussion in Pittsburgh about trading and/or allowing JuJu to walk after this season because he is not a true number 1 WR.  
 

Of course the backside of that is what would Zay Jones have looked like if he had been drafted into any of those other teams.  As a number 2 in Pittsburgh or TB with little pressure - could he have been a better player.  I think the ultimate fit would have been Zay in LA rather than Kupp.  Zay learning under Woods and getting to run routes out of the slot as a #3 option.  I think his career would be different - not Kupp good, but better than we saw.

 

I just saw too many dropped passes and wrong routes to think that Zay could ever be more than a #3 WR in the NFL.  And there must have been something the Bills saw to jettison after just 2-1/3 season.  At least those other guys produced huge numbers as #2 guys.  But it will be interesting to see how he does with the Raiders from here on out.

 

As for JuJu, QB play and injuries give him a mulligan for last year.  And even if he proves to be a #2 guy, it would be stupid to get rid of him.

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I still would like the Bills to dip into the WR draft with one of their first two picks. This team is one injury away from having the same issues on offense as they did last season. They also need to get younger behind Brown and Beasley who are 30 and 31 respectively, in a deep WR class it would be smart to get young behind the 3 starters when a round 3 pick might net a good player who can develop for a season and then push for a starting spot in 2021. DE and WR were the trouble spots going into the off-season and I still think they are lacking somewhat. 

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18 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

Below are the career stats for the WRs the year Diggs was drafted.  Drafting WR is a total crap shoot.  The first two numbers after the year "2015" is the draft round and overall draft number. The last three numbers in the columns are : Catches / Yards Receiving / TDs

 

1 2015 1 4 Amari Cooper WR 21 OAK 2015 2019 0 4 5 39 77 72 8 27 0 357 5097 33 Alabama College Stats
2 2015 1 7 Kevin White WR 23 CHI 2016 2018 0 0 0 2 14 5 1 9 0 25 285 0 West Virginia College Stats
3 2015 1 14 DeVante Parker WR 22 MIA 2015 2019 0 0 3 23 70 45       235 3419 18 Louisville College Stats
4 2015 1 20 Nelson Agholor WR 22 PHI 2015 2019 0 0 5 21 71 62 11 60 0 224 2515 18 USC College Stats
5 2015 1 26 Breshad Perriman WR 21 BAL 2016 2019 0 0 0 11 51 10 7 20 0 95 1561 11 Central Florida College Stats
6 2015 1 29 Phillip Dorsett WR 22 IND 2015 2019 0 0 0 14 71 15 13 84 0 124 1634 11 Miami (FL) College Stats
7 2015 2 37 Devin Smith WR 23 NYJ 2015 2019 0 0 0 2 18 5       15 248 2 Ohio St. College Stats
8 2015 2 40 Dorial Green-Beckham WR 22 TEN 2015 2016 0 0 0 7 31 12       68 941 6 Oklahoma College Stats
9 2015 3 69 Tyler Lockett WR 22 SEA 2015 2019 1 1 4 37 79 55 38 256 1 276 3838 27 Kansas St. College Stats
10 2015 3 70 Jaelen Strong WR 21 HOU 2015 2017 0 0 0 2 20 3       31 330 4 Arizona St. College Stats
11 2015 3 76 Chris Conley WR 22 KAN 2015 2019 0 0 3 18 69 48       151 2013 11 Georgia College Stats
12 2015 3 87 Sammie Coates WR 22 PIT 2015 2018 0 0 0 4 45 6 4 14 0 29 528 2 Auburn College Stats
13 2015 3 94 Ty Montgomery WR 22 GNB 2015 2019 0 0 0 15 58 16 224 1035 7 120 982 3 Stanford College Stats
14 2015 4 105 Jamison Crowder WR 22 WAS 2015 2019 0 0 2 25 72 40 16 68 0 299 3461 20 Duke College Stats
15 2015 4 107 Justin Hardy WR 23 ATL 2015 2019 0 0 0 8 73 6       95 946 9 East Carolina College Stats
16 2015 4 123 Vince Mayle WR 24 CLE 2015 2017 0 0 0 0 23 0 2 2 1       Washington St. College Stats
17 2015 4 132 DeAndre Smelter WR 23 SFO 2016 2016 0 0 0 0 2 0       1 23 0 Georgia Tech  
18 2015 5 139 Rashad Greene WR 22 JAX 2015 2018 0 0 0 2 25 1       30 185 2 Florida St. College Stats
19 2015 5 146 Stefon Diggs WR 21 MIN 2015 2019 0 0 5 40 70 63 29 159 0 365 4623 30 Maryland College Stats
20 2015 5 156 Tony Lippett WR 23 MIA 2015 2018 0 0 1 6 28 13             Michigan St. College Stats
21 2015 5 159 JJ Nelson WR 23 ARI 2015 2019 0 0 0 12 58 16 12 120 1 85 1475 11 Ala-Birmingham  
22 2015 5 162 Kenny Bell WR 23 TAM     0 0 0                   Nebraska College Stats
23 2015 5 175 Keith Mumphery WR 23 HOU 2015 2016 0 0 0 2 27 6       24 198 0 Michigan St.  
24 2015 6 184 Kaelin Clay WR 23 TAM 2015 2018 0 0 0 3 22 2 3 27 0 6 85 0 Utah College Stats
25 2015 6 186 Geremy Davis WR 23 NYG 2015 2019 0 0 0 0 36 1       5 59 0 Connecticut College Stats
26 2015 6 187 Evan Spencer WR 22 WAS 2015 2015 0 0 0 0 1 0             Ohio St. College Stats
27 2015 6 201 Bud Sasser WR   STL     0 0 0                   Missouri College Stats
28 2015 6 204 Darren Waller WR 22 BAL

 

 

 

Even in that draft only Diggs and Cooper had a big time impact in their first season (Lockett the only other one with significant impact year one) and most took until year 3 or 4 to really get going if they ever got going at all. So I think turning exclusively to the draft is risky especially if you want impact in the next two seasons. That’s why I think trading a 1st for Diggs and then dipping into the pool again in round 3 for depth/future considerations is the best way to go to both secure immediate improvement in the WR corps while also setting up the WR core for the future. 

 

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52 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

I still would like the Bills to dip into the WR draft with one of their first two picks. This team is one injury away from having the same issues on offense as they did last season. They also need to get younger behind Brown and Beasley who are 30 and 31 respectively, in a deep WR class it would be smart to get young behind the 3 starters when a round 3 pick might net a good player who can develop for a season and then push for a starting spot in 2021. DE and WR were the trouble spots going into the off-season and I still think they are lacking somewhat. 

 

Any injury to any team's top-3 WR's is usually a big blow and I'm not sure you can count on a 2nd round (or later) rookie, especially in what should be an abbreviated off-season, can be counted on to save a team's season.  I think the biggest reason the Bills made the move for Diggs is because they didn't feel there was a WR at 22 (or 21) that would make nearly the same impact as Diggs, therefore taking one later wouldn't either.

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Just now, Doc said:

 

Any injury to any team's top-3 WR's is usually a big blow and I'm not sure you can count on a 2nd round (or later) rookie, especially in what should be an abbreviated off-season, can be counted on to save a team's season.  I think the biggest reason the Bills made the move for Diggs is because they didn't feel there was a WR at 22 (or 21) that would make nearly the same impact as Diggs, therefore taking one later wouldn't either.

 

I agree somewhat that a top-3 WR injury is going to be hard to overcome but I think that a 2nd or 3rd round rookie at least has a chance to step in and be a lot better than what would currently be on the roster (Mac, Foster or Duke) and even those modest differences could be the difference. Also if a WR gets hurt week 7 a rookie at least had a good chunk of the season to acclimate and be better than Mac or Duke. Overall it is more so a future consideration with the upside of potential depth. 

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