There should be a national dialogue in getting back to work

[The Frankish Reich]

Try to follow this logic:

1 - A vaccine that is safe and (reasonably) effective is just around the corner. (That's from the President himself!)

2 - Therefore, it makes sense to err on the side of caution. We may throw open the doors in a few months (or maybe in 6 months). To do it now risks hundreds of thousands of additional deaths (not to mention exorbitant health care costs) when a solution to the crisis is on the way. This is common sense. From an economics perspective, let's say something gives me great pleasure, like going on a Caribbean cruise. I can go next week, but there's tropical storm brewing that may reach hurricane status and ruin the trip, and put me at some risk of harm. Or the cruise line says I can go in November, when hurricane season is over. I defer gratification and put off the trip. Any intelligent person does this type of thing all the time.

 

I agree with (1). And I have to assume a whole lot of others here do too, because they obviously believe the President has a good handle on all of this even though his political opponents (and the media) won't admit it for self-serving reasons.

 

But instead of then reaching the logical conclusion -- let's go slow on reopening, the cure is on it's way! -- they argue "let's fling the doors open immediately."

 

 

[shoshin]

On 9/1/2020 at 6:26 PM, BeerLeagueHockey said:

 

No.  Don't even crack that door open.

 

I'd leave it dependent on hospital bed capacity only.

 

On 9/1/2020 at 6:26 PM, BeerLeagueHockey said:

Masks work, do they not?

 

Masks help. They are not a panacea. 

[Buffalo_Gal]

 

 

[SoCal Deek]

On 9/8/2020 at 7:37 AM, shoshin said:

 

I'd leave it dependent on hospital bed capacity only.

 

 

Masks help. They are not a panacea. 

We’ve gone over and over and over this! We’ve been wearing masks nonstop since March in California. I’m not at all convinced it has much if any impact on this. And if it does then our 40,000,000 population would be a great sample size to study. So...our death rate ‘is what it is’. 

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

On 9/8/2020 at 10:24 AM, The Frankish Reich said:

Try to follow this logic:

1 - A vaccine that is safe and (reasonably) effective is just around the corner. (That's from the President himself!)

2 - Therefore, it makes sense to err on the side of caution. We may throw open the doors in a few months (or maybe in 6 months). To do it now risks hundreds of thousands of additional deaths (not to mention exorbitant health care costs) when a solution to the crisis is on the way. This is common sense. From an economics perspective, let's say something gives me great pleasure, like going on a Caribbean cruise. I can go next week, but there's tropical storm brewing that may reach hurricane status and ruin the trip, and put me at some risk of harm. Or the cruise line says I can go in November, when hurricane season is over. I defer gratification and put off the trip. Any intelligent person does this type of thing all the time.

 

I agree with (1). And I have to assume a whole lot of others here do too, because they obviously believe the President has a good handle on all of this even though his political opponents (and the media) won't admit it for self-serving reasons.

 

But instead of then reaching the logical conclusion -- let's go slow on reopening, the cure is on it's way! -- they argue "let's fling the doors open immediately."

 

 

Frankish....would you mind sharing how you’re doing financially over the last six months?   I’m not interested in picking a fight one way or the other, but it’s been my personal, local observation that those on the razor edge of financial ruin are much more inclined to want to get back to regular business than those who have received steady weekly/monthly income from any variety of sources. 
 

i was speaking with a restaurant owner in the Albany area yesterday.  Offers a finer, higher end establishment and since he is on a waterfront, outdoor seating is not an issue (though the weather is turning), and he’s a self-made man with many other business interests.  He said he’ll be fine, I did not inquire about his employees, but we discussed that 60% figure tossed about as it relates to restaurant closings across NY.   
 

If it goes that way, it’s a blood letting and the impact will be catastrophic.   At some point, the logical conclusion is also the most devastating in the larger picture. 
 

 

 

[ziltoid]

25 minutes ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said:

Frankish....would you mind sharing how you’re doing financially over the last six months?   I’m not interested in picking a fight one way or the other, but it’s been my personal, local observation that those on the razor edge of financial ruin are much more inclined to want to get back to regular business than those who have received steady weekly/monthly income from any variety of sources. 
 

i was speaking with a restaurant owner in the Albany area yesterday.  Offers a finer, higher end establishment and since he is on a waterfront, outdoor seating is not an issue (though the weather is turning), and he’s a self-made man with many other business interests.  He said he’ll be fine, I did not inquire about his employees, but we discussed that 60% figure tossed about as it relates to restaurant closings across NY.   
 

If it goes that way, it’s a blood letting and the impact will be catastrophic.   At some point, the logical conclusion is also the most devastating in the larger picture. 
 

 

 

 

It doesn't matter, people can't see beyond the mask in front of their face.  Only when the herd immunity sets in will people start waking up to the obliteration of the American way of life.  By then it'll be too late, UBI for everyone will be the only morally just answer.

[Tiberius]

Just now, BeerLeagueHockey said:

 

It doesn't matter, people can't see beyond the mask in front of their face.  Only when the herd immunity sets in will people start waking up to the obliteration of the American way of life.  By then it'll be too late, UBI for everyone will be the only morally just answer.

The herd immunity would cost how many lives? To get there. How many? 

[SectionC3]

1 hour ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said:

Frankish....would you mind sharing how you’re doing financially over the last six months?   I’m not interested in picking a fight one way or the other, but it’s been my personal, local observation that those on the razor edge of financial ruin are much more inclined to want to get back to regular business than those who have received steady weekly/monthly income from any variety of sources. 
 

i was speaking with a restaurant owner in the Albany area yesterday.  Offers a finer, higher end establishment and since he is on a waterfront, outdoor seating is not an issue (though the weather is turning), and he’s a self-made man with many other business interests.  He said he’ll be fine, I did not inquire about his employees, but we discussed that 60% figure tossed about as it relates to restaurant closings across NY.   
 

If it goes that way, it’s a blood letting and the impact will be catastrophic.   At some point, the logical conclusion is also the most devastating in the larger picture. 
 

 

 

 

I don’t doubt that this is true.  But it returns us to the point that to get the economy back to normal, we need not only to reopen, but to reinstall consumer confidence.  Opening doors is meaningless unless and until consumers have a sense of health security in the places they formerly patronized.  

 

Personally, living in Orchard Park, I have no intention of going to any local restaurant anytime soon.  I love the guys at the Byrd House.  I really do.  And I’ll buy gift certificates for friends from that restaurant.  But I am not eating at any of these places not because of what they’re doing or not doing, but because of the behavior of their patrons.  I run down that road and I see little to no mask compliance at any establishment (aside from Spot Coffee) on a weekend night.  

 

That, of course, gets us back to the point that if we all just sucked it up and wore a 50-cent mask in public, we probably would be in a much, much better spot right now.  

Edited September 11, 2020 by SectionC3

[Tiberius]

3 minutes ago, SectionC3 said:

 

I don’t doubt that this is true.  But it returns us to the point that to get the economy back to normal, we need not only to reopen, but to reinstall consumer confidence.  Opening doors are meaningless unless and until consumers have a sense of health security in the places they formerly patronized.  

 

Personally, living in Orchard Park, I have no intention of going to any local restaurant anytime soon.  I love the guys at the Byrd House.  I really do.  And I’ll buy gift certificates for friends from that restaurant.  But I am not eating at any of these places not because of what they’re doing or not doing, but because of the behavior of their patrons.  I run down that road and I see little to no mask compliance at any establishment (aside from Spot Coffee) on a weekend night.  

 

That, of course, gets us back to the point that if we all just sucked it up and wore a 50-cent mask in public, we probably would be in a much, much better spot right now.  

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/10/health/restaurant-dining-covid-19-cdc-study-wellness/index.html 

 

I told the guy running our hockey pick up games I won't be there. I almost played but thought it was a dumb idea after thinking about it 

[SectionC3]

4 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/10/health/restaurant-dining-covid-19-cdc-study-wellness/index.html 

 

I told the guy running our hockey pick up games I won't be there. I almost played but thought it was a dumb idea after thinking about it 

I hate to say it, but the risk isn’t worth the reward right now.  We’ve been disciplined for nearly six months, and I’m not going to crack when we’re probably no more than six months away from some sort of resolution, be it a vaccine or virus burnout after a fall resurgence. 

[The Frankish Reich]

2 hours ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said:

Frankish....would you mind sharing how you’re doing financially over the last six months?   I’m not interested in picking a fight one way or the other, but it’s been my personal, local observation that those on the razor edge of financial ruin are much more inclined to want to get back to regular business than those who have received steady weekly/monthly income from any variety of sources. 
 

i was speaking with a restaurant owner in the Albany area yesterday.  Offers a finer, higher end establishment and since he is on a waterfront, outdoor seating is not an issue (though the weather is turning), and he’s a self-made man with many other business interests.  He said he’ll be fine, I did not inquire about his employees, but we discussed that 60% figure tossed about as it relates to restaurant closings across NY.   
 

If it goes that way, it’s a blood letting and the impact will be catastrophic.   At some point, the logical conclusion is also the most devastating in the larger picture. 
 

 

 

Fair question. I am fortunate. I have a job that is amenable to telework, and that's what I've been doing since late March with only occasional office visits.

I understand that many others are in a very different situation. As for restaurants, I try to do my best to keep the local places going. Right now that's easy since I enjoy dining outdoors. And I know it will get a lot more difficult as the weather changes.

But throwing the doors open too early will not help anyone. It will bring us back to the critical situation we faced in April, with the only options being another 80% economic shutdown or catastrophic loss of life and a desperate situation in our hospitals. 

I

[B-Man]

 

 

CARING: Democrats Block GOP Covid Aid Package. 

 

Hey, you can’t expect them to help Americans

 

when there’s a GOP president and an election just weeks away.

 

 

 

 

 

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

2 hours ago, SectionC3 said:

 

I don’t doubt that this is true.  But it returns us to the point that to get the economy back to normal, we need not only to reopen, but to reinstall consumer confidence.  Opening doors is meaningless unless and until consumers have a sense of health security in the places they formerly patronized.  

 

Personally, living in Orchard Park, I have no intention of going to any local restaurant anytime soon.  I love the guys at the Byrd House.  I really do.  And I’ll buy gift certificates for friends from that restaurant.  But I am not eating at any of these places not because of what they’re doing or not doing, but because of the behavior of their patrons.  I run down that road and I see little to no mask compliance at any establishment (aside from Spot Coffee) on a weekend night.  

 

That, of course, gets us back to the point that if we all just sucked it up and wore a 50-cent mask in public, we probably would be in a much, much better spot right now.  

I can only speak to my experience, but mask compliance is quite high in my travels.  I'd estimate it to be in excess of 98%.  

 

I'd also agree that there are many folks who feel like you and will avoid gatherings like the plague, there are many, many others that would move on with their lives given the opportunity.  The point is really pretty simple imo, snuffing out the life work of people that produce in our country is not an answer that doesn't bring with it a whole lot of other questions.  

 

 

[GG]

4 hours ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

 

 

 

He's wrong - JPM only ordered the trading floor employees back, not everyone.

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Fair question. I am fortunate. I have a job that is amenable to telework, and that's what I've been doing since late March with only occasional office visits.

I understand that many others are in a very different situation. As for restaurants, I try to do my best to keep the local places going. Right now that's easy since I enjoy dining outdoors. And I know it will get a lot more difficult as the weather changes.

But throwing the doors open too early will not help anyone. It will bring us back to the critical situation we faced in April, with the only options being another 80% economic shutdown or catastrophic loss of life and a desperate situation in our hospitals. 

I

Thanks for speaking Frankly. I appreciate the response, and as I said, I wasn't looking for an argument or any great debate.  So far, your response tracks with what I'm finding generally.  

[SectionC3]

2 minutes ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said:

I can only speak to my experience, but mask compliance is quite high in my travels.  I'd estimate it to be in excess of 98%.  

 

I'd also agree that there are many folks who feel like you and will avoid gatherings like the plague, there are many, many others that would move on with their lives given the opportunity.  The point is really pretty simple imo, snuffing out the life work of people that produce in our country is not an answer that doesn't bring with it a whole lot of other questions.  

 

 

 

Nobody disagrees that “snuffing” is bad. But the best way to get things back to normal is to restore consumer confidence.  Here’s the deal.  You and I will disagree on the next point: Trump is full of ***** and not to be trusted on anything, and is especially untrustworthy on the virus issue.  So I have no faith in whatever information is coming out of Washington with respect to testing, vax progress, etc.

 

Here’s where we can start to agree again.  Irrespective of whether one disagrees with the former view,  and Irrespective of whether one can draw confidence from what comes out of DC, this latter point remains.  Absent belief of consumers that they can return to “normal” safely, they’re not going to venture out and they’re not going to spend their money. And the longer this lasts, the less money we will have circulating throughout the economy and the less discretionary cash we will have that will be able to be spent.  One (non-comprehensive and imperfect) way to increase confidence is to have everyone show a little courtesy to one another and wear the mask.  Compliance around here is terrible, and it’s a significant reason I won’t take the kids to a restaurant, or to the zoo, or pretty much anywhere else we’ll incur a meaningful risk of running into an inconsiderate dope who might get them sick.  

 

All of these issues are intertwined, and I just don’t see how we fix the mess that has become the economy until we get the virus under control.  We can all agree that the catalyst for the economic downturn and malaise of the last six months is the virus.  So the best way to solve the problems?  Put the petty fights about masks, hydroxychloroquine, the rush to the vax, and all of the related issues behind, wear the masks, work together, and get this thing done. 

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

3 minutes ago, SectionC3 said:

 

Nobody disagrees that “snuffing” is bad. But the best way to get things back to normal is to restore consumer confidence.  Here’s the deal.  You and I will disagree on the next point: Trump is full of ***** and not to be trusted on anything, and is especially untrustworthy on the virus issue.  So I have no faith in whatever information is coming out of Washington with respect to testing, vax progress, etc.

 

Here’s where we can start to agree again.  Irrespective of whether one disagrees with the former view,  and Irrespective of whether one can draw confidence from what comes out of DC, this latter point remains.  Absent belief of consumers that they can return to “normal” safely, they’re not going to venture out and they’re not going to spend their money. And the longer this lasts, the less money we will have circulating throughout the economy and the less discretionary cash we will have that will be able to be spent.  One (non-comprehensive and imperfect) way to increase confidence is to have everyone show a little courtesy to one another and wear the mask.  Compliance around here is terrible, and it’s a significant reason I won’t take the kids to a restaurant, or to the zoo, or pretty much anywhere else we’ll incur a meaningful risk of running into an inconsiderate dope who might get them sick.  

 

All of these issues are intertwined, and I just don’t see how we fix the mess that has become the economy until we get the virus under control.  We can all agree that the catalyst for the economic downturn and malaise of the last six months is the virus.  So the best way to solve the problems?  Put the petty fights about masks, hydroxychloroquine, the rush to the vax, and all of the related issues behind, wear the masks, work together, and get this thing done. 

Dude, seriously, I reject the lecture as unnecessary and full of hubris. If we're all being truthful,  you would acknowledge the obvious political bent on COVID that exists beyond whatever issues you have with your President.   I don't trust anyone blindly, but learned long ago to ignore arguments that are one dimensional.  The world is complicated, and there are people and leaders in the world that would gladly snuff out the livelihood of the working class in an attempt to rule the world.  It is the way it is, it is the way it always has been, and will be the way in the future.  

 

You keep talking about the mask, I responded in kind.  98%ish compliance in my experience.  I accept your thoughts on your experience.  Your thoughts on people being willing to mix it up again are yours, and I believe you, but there are many people who disagree that hiding in the garage with the lights off is bad for all of us.  You may well be correct that reopening our economy might well be irrelevant and mot people will stay away.  I'm not so sure. 

 

As for all of us coming together, it's simply not going to happen.  One simply cannot watch the comings and goings of life and come to the conclusion that we're all in this together.  You cannot have one set of rules for the compliant group, while flaunting an entirely different set of rules for the those who choose not to be compliant.  

 

I wear a mask, I respect social distancing, I am as courteous possible and have been for decades.  Still, I'm hard-pressed to support the destruction of businesses and the livelihoods of people across the country based on this political mess we find ourselves in now. 

[The Frankish Reich]

43 minutes ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said:

Thanks for speaking Frankly. I appreciate the response, and as I said, I wasn't looking for an argument or any great debate.  So far, your response tracks with what I'm finding generally.  

How could I speak anything other than Frankly. 

Seriously: I appreciate the pointed question. It makes me think that reasoned discourse is still possible. And that's a very good thing.

I am certainly not part of the leisure class. There's no fleeing to my second home to get away from an urban coronavirus outbreak or anything like that. But I am aware that avoiding contact with lots of other people just hasn't been an option for many people. I err more on the side of caution, partly because I am horrified by what has happened in some other countries regarding treatment of the elderly.* I am fortunate enough to have my elderly parents still living near me, and I see them frequently -- as with all people their age, they have their health issues and it is critical that I protect them. This is probably informed by my respect for life and, I guess, my faith too:

 

* for example:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/08/world/europe/coronavirus-nursing-homes-elderly.html

[SectionC3]

44 minutes ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said:

Dude, seriously, I reject the lecture as unnecessary and full of hubris. If we're all being truthful,  you would acknowledge the obvious political bent on COVID that exists beyond whatever issues you have with your President.   I don't trust anyone blindly, but learned long ago to ignore arguments that are one dimensional.  The world is complicated, and there are people and leaders in the world that would gladly snuff out the livelihood of the working class in an attempt to rule the world.  It is the way it is, it is the way it always has been, and will be the way in the future.  

 

You keep talking about the mask, I responded in kind.  98%ish compliance in my experience.  I accept your thoughts on your experience.  Your thoughts on people being willing to mix it up again are yours, and I believe you, but there are many people who disagree that hiding in the garage with the lights off is bad for all of us.  You may well be correct that reopening our economy might well be irrelevant and mot people will stay away.  I'm not so sure. 

 

As for all of us coming together, it's simply not going to happen.  One simply cannot watch the comings and goings of life and come to the conclusion that we're all in this together.  You cannot have one set of rules for the compliant group, while flaunting an entirely different set of rules for the those who choose not to be compliant.  

 

I wear a mask, I respect social distancing, I am as courteous possible and have been for decades.  Still, I'm hard-pressed to support the destruction of businesses and the livelihoods of people across the country based on this political mess we find ourselves in now. 

 

And here’s the flaw in your approach.  What’s killing businesses?  Aside from movie theaters and like entertainment venues, it’s not government regulations.  It’s the lack of consumer confidence.  Gyms are not barring people at the door because of limited capacity.  Restaurants don’t have wait lines where I live.  It’s one thing to open the doors, it’s another thing to get people to want to pass through the doors.  And that consumer confidence will not come back until we get the virus under control.  Bottom line.  

[Tiberius]

On 3/25/2020 at 10:40 AM, B-Man said:

 

 

RON BAILEY: Massive Coronavirus Testing Is the Way to Help Save the Economy: No time to waste; do it sooner rather than later.

 

By massively scaling up two types of tests—PCR tests that detect the active presence of virus and serology tests that detect immune system responses to being infected by the virus—population screening could identify those who are currently infected and those who have recovered and are likely not to pass along the virus to others.

 

Those who are currently infected could be isolated and their contacts traced so that they could quarantine themselves. Frequent large-scale testing of the uninfected would also help keep the epidemic in check by enabling them to withdraw if they subsequently contract the virus for a period of self-isolation in a timely fashion. Frontline health care providers and especially hard-hit regions should be given first priority as the testing regime begins its rapid expansion.

 

Those who had recovered from infection (possibly numbering ten times more than those whose symptoms drive them to seek out medical care) could help on the frontlines of the fight against COVID-19, return to work, and enjoy the pleasures of social life, e.g., dining out, meeting friends at bars, traveling, and attending performances at entertainment venues. “To make this strategy work, governments would need to involve employers, social organizations, schools and large retailers to conduct tests and provide time-stamped certifications,” propose the three researchers.

 

To ramp up both kinds of testing, the researchers urge that every laboratory capable of running PCR tests be pressed into service recruiting technicians, graduate students, and scientists to run the machines. Even better, Mesa Biotech just announced today that it has received Emergency Use Authorization from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to roll out its point-of-use 30-minute PCR test for the virus. Other companies should be encouraged to provide such tests.

 

As I also argued last week, the researchers argue that widespread deployment of serology tests for the presence of antibodies to coronavirus needs to be prioritized. This would identify people who had recovered and could safely go back to life outside of lockdown.

 

Over at the Wall Street Journal, the perspicacious former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb also recommends massively scaling up serological surveillance. When population screening reveals that “a sizable portion of a local community has some protection, authorities can be more confident in relying on less invasive measures. Once deployed, serological tests are cheap, straightforward, and easy to scale.”

 

Several companies have already developed such tests.

 

 

Faster, please.

 

 

 

 

 

 

..

Still waiting

On 3/25/2020 at 4:20 PM, Magox said:

You can make that criticism but I think most people understand that this is something that caught the entire world off guard including our health experts.  The only ones who were well prepared for it were the Asians and that is because they went through to it with H1N1.  

 

We can agree to disagree but if Dr Fauci and all of Europe’s top health experts were caught off guard then I won’t hold it against anyone else for doing so as well.

Oh guard? Trump knew this was real deadly and then just said it was no problem. Ya, he screwed up big time