Augie Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 27 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said: I have not read this entire thread, but seems all the stores IN Richmond VA are sold out of chicken in all forms. Any know why? Or is it just like TP and people follow the herd? IDK, but we are about to head back to the store to see if they have restocked since yesterday. They closed a couple hours early, which was no big loss since they had little to sell that you would actually want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 14, 2020 Author Share Posted March 14, 2020 15 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said: I have not read this entire thread, but seems all the stores IN Richmond VA are sold out of chicken in all forms. Any know why? Or is it just like TP and people follow the herd? I Got Nothin. Maybe trying to stock up on Nunu's Homemade Chicken Soup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocCityRoller Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 (edited) 3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Unfortunately from everything I know, I think this article is true: "Former FDA officials I spoke with said that during past outbreaks, EUAs could be granted in just a couple of days. But this time, the requirements for getting an EUA were so complicated that it would have taken weeks to receive one, says Alex Greninger, the assistant director of the virology division at the University of Washington Medical Center" This is the Medical Center associated with the flu project group that was told to stop. It's not just clinical labs, but waiving the guidelines that all testing must be done within a qualified clinical lab provided appropriate infection protocols are in place. You don't want faulty tests used, and you don't want infectious samples being waived around a building without appropriate precautions, but it should not take weeks to assure that the test is validated and to enquire into the infection control procedures and assure they are appropriate. In an email, an FDA spokesperson denied that the agency acted slowly. Ensuring the validity of tests is important, she noted, to prevent false results. The latter statement is true, but does not justify the slow actions. Someone who knows what they're doing can read a clinical test validation protocol and make any relevant criticisms in a couple hours - maybe a day max. They can work proactively with the group - send them a template format and "I'm having trouble finding what I need in the material you sent me, could you help by putting your results in this format?". Put them in touch with a local biotech industry mentor to help with this - Lord knows they're leaking out of the walls in Seattle. That might cause a delay of another 2 days while the group re-formats their submission. That's how you assure quality without sacrificing much speed. Quality review does not mean slow review. The real problem is that the minions at the FDA had no direction from leadership to make this a priority. Was going to bring this up. The public certainly is not going to be helped by tests that are inaccurate, and neither are the organizations trying to create policy to mitigate the spread. False positives and false negatives are both dangerous in this situation. When creating a test for a new strain of a virus (hence novel Coronavirus) samples of that virus are required just to conduct lab testing, much less determine if that same test that was validated in the lab is accurate in a human population. This is why there are FDA regulations for approving lab tests before they go out to the general public, and why officials are pressing for a coordinated effort. Having a bunch of disparate labs with differently created tests rushed through the proper vetting process is not an acceptable answer. I find it interesting you neglected to share the entire portion of the Atlantic article below, which is a pretty key factor in developing an accurate test: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/why-coronavirus-testing-us-so-delayed/607954/ Hard-to-Get Virus Samples Labs and companies need samples of the virus itself in order to make their tests, but delays in getting access to samples further slowed down the test-development process. The coronavirus originated in China, and as several microbiologists told me, the Chinese government does not allow specimens to be shipped outside its borders. Many researchers have had difficulty getting their hands on samples even as the virus has spread. “I was working the phones to try to get access to the virus,” Greninger said. BioMérieux just released three versions of its coronavirus test this week, after beginning work on it on January 23. Miller says that with every viral outbreak, the company’s biggest problem by far is getting access to virus and patient specimens so that it can validate its tests. Even when working with nonauthoritarian countries, a combination of government processes, researcher reticence, complex shipping regulations, and patient-privacy concerns makes getting samples difficult for diagnostic companies like his. Miller said it would help if researchers, governments, and companies firmed up pathogen-sharing contracts in advance of an outbreak, but so far that hasn’t happened. “The problem is that in the past, industry has been viewed as this dirty participant in all of this, and we can't be trusted, and why would I have contracts with you?” Miller says. “But that’s ignoring the plain fact that we’re the ones that create the product in the end.” We are now seeing cases of people in Japan and South Korea who were cleared of coronavirus testing positive with a new test. Who knows what is really going on in China? Is it the virus, or use of a more accurate test? A coordinated effort that yields an accurate test is the rational response. Limiting information as to why the test kits are delayed is intellectually dishonest and dangerous. Edited March 14, 2020 by RocCityRoller Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 They have always stated many false negatives are part of the test consider it an extended March Break for everyone, if you don’t feel well stay home everyone that is socially active will be exposed to this in North America, a few will get infected and a smaller few will die, kind of a reverse lottery 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 So the Wegmans in Richmond had zero pork, beef or chicken in any form left LOL. Had a few legs of lambs left. No bacon either. all the produce you could want though! And the beer and wine supplies were perfectly normal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 14, 2020 Author Share Posted March 14, 2020 1 hour ago, RocCityRoller said: Was going to bring this up. The public certainly is not going to be helped by tests that are inaccurate, and neither are the organizations trying to create policy to mitigate the spread. False positives and false negatives are both dangerous in this situation. When creating a test for a new strain of a virus (hence novel Coronavirus) samples of that virus are required just to conduct lab testing, much less determine if that same test that was validated in the lab is accurate in a human population. This is why there are FDA regulations for approving lab tests before they go out to the general public, and why officials are pressing for a coordinated effort. Having a bunch of disparate labs with differently created tests rushed through the proper vetting process is not an acceptable answer. I find it interesting you neglected to share the entire portion of the Atlantic article below, which is a pretty key factor in developing an accurate test: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/why-coronavirus-testing-us-so-delayed/607954/ Hard-to-Get Virus Samples Labs and companies need samples of the virus itself in order to make their tests, but delays in getting access to samples further slowed down the test-development process. The coronavirus originated in China, and as several microbiologists told me, the Chinese government does not allow specimens to be shipped outside its borders. Many researchers have had difficulty getting their hands on samples even as the virus has spread. “I was working the phones to try to get access to the virus,” Greninger said. BioMérieux just released three versions of its coronavirus test this week, after beginning work on it on January 23. Miller says that with every viral outbreak, the company’s biggest problem by far is getting access to virus and patient specimens so that it can validate its tests. Even when working with nonauthoritarian countries, a combination of government processes, researcher reticence, complex shipping regulations, and patient-privacy concerns makes getting samples difficult for diagnostic companies like his. Miller said it would help if researchers, governments, and companies firmed up pathogen-sharing contracts in advance of an outbreak, but so far that hasn’t happened. “The problem is that in the past, industry has been viewed as this dirty participant in all of this, and we can't be trusted, and why would I have contracts with you?” Miller says. “But that’s ignoring the plain fact that we’re the ones that create the product in the end.” We are now seeing cases of people in Japan and South Korea who were cleared of coronavirus testing positive with a new test. Who knows what is really going on in China? Is it the virus, or use of a more accurate test? A coordinated effort that yields an accurate test is the rational response. Limiting information as to why the test kits are delayed is intellectually dishonest and dangerous. "I find it interesting you neglected to share the entire portion of the Atlantic article below, " Oh do you now? Or do you have a little agenda here when you end with "Limiting information as to why the test kits are delayed is intellectually dishonest and dangerous."? Everybody gets to share what part of the article interests or strikes them as important, including you. Reads like you're throwing some shade, not just sharing. I didn't include that portion because I personally feel it's an obstacle that could have been readily overcome with coordination and cooperation. Yes, clinical samples can be a limitation early on but there were certainly patients both in US and in other countries that will ship samples at the time delays in test development were occurring. I don't think they were (or needed to be) as rate-limiting as the article implies. The main issue is the FDA didn't invite test development nor enable it, as it's done for previous emerging diseases. I worked in Pharma for a decade cheek by jowl and working closely with people developing tests. I know how tests are developed. I've had cocktails with and chatted up people at the FDA about their concerns with developing clinical tests. The delays to the process here were far beyond what is reasonable in the cause of accuracy. It is egregious as I see it, and I will throw "shade". Accuracy is important, so is freakin' getting it done. And that starts at the top, with defining priorities. There will always be false negatives and false positives in clinical tests. Some of these only emerge in practical field use - interferences that weren't considered or tested when the test was developed. Some of them are not "on" the tests - people don't happen to have virus in their throat when it's swabbed, it's down in their lungs; or the swab isn't dampened enough, or it isn't stored or processed properly. But a test is a tool, and in an emerging contagious disease scenario, undue delays in testing or failure to develop a test promptly is not justified in the pursuit of undue perfection. One simply defines performance standards the test has to meet, looks at the data that shows the test meets them, and moves. The effort is not so coordinated right now, BTW. The FDA simply started to authorize test development under a simplified EUA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punching Bag Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 My brother-in-law works in hospital in Hong Kong.. China pushed a number of patients over border to Hong Kong telling them they had no room. They should have gotten samples there. I am so glad he finally got the n55 masks I ordered in January, customs was a long delay. There was a panic buy in January and every store was out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 4 hours ago, ChevyVanMiller said: I work for the Hilton in Niagara Falls, Ontario. We just received word from Niagara parks that they are shutting down all Niagara Falls attractions until April 6th. They're turning the falls off? Boy, that must be a big... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 23 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said: So the Wegmans in Richmond had zero pork, beef or chicken in any form left LOL. Had a few legs of lambs left. No bacon either. all the produce you could want though! And the beer and wine supplies were perfectly normal! All they had was pork yesterday so I grabbed some chops. I also got the very last banana in the store, but bananas are back today. There is ZERO anywhere in the meat department, so they are all breaking it down and cleaning every nook and cranny. Much easier to do with no inventory. The paper aisle? Spooky empty! In a few days I may start auctioning off toilet paper. It could be much more lucrative than winning the Publishers Clearinghouse! I’ll start about $500/roll and go up from there. Based upon what I’ve seen, I’ll get some takers! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 14, 2020 Author Share Posted March 14, 2020 So that's how it happened! woof woof woof 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hardhatharry Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Posts up to date numbers and the sources as they come in on the bottom. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 I don’t know who this guy is, or anything about the accuracy of what he’s providing, but if this doesn’t make you want to practice your “social distancing”, I don’t know what to tell you! https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocCityRoller Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 12 minutes ago, Hardhatharry said: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Posts up to date numbers and the sources as they come in on the bottom. That is a good one, I shared the Johns Hopkins dashboard in a long thread earlier this week https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html It has a fancy map where anyone can see infections/ deaths/ recoveries/ remain by country and for the US and China by state/ province 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 14, 2020 Author Share Posted March 14, 2020 14 minutes ago, Augie said: I don’t know who this guy is, or anything about the accuracy of what he’s providing, but if this doesn’t make you want to practice your “social distancing”, I don’t know what to tell you! https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca This article was linked and recommended up-thread. I don't know who the guy is, but whether he ordinarily writes about medicine or muskrats, he "gets it", and the sources he cites are valid. His explanation of the Hubei Timeline (Chart 7) and the difference between actual and official cases is particularly clear IMO. I mention him so much that I'm starting to sound like his publicist, but I strongly recommend following the computational virologist he mentions, Trevor Bedford of Seattle's Fred Hutchinson Institute, on Twitter. He tells it as he sees it, and his seeing is based on epidemiologist math. https://twitter.com/trvrb I also recommend this, though you may need to get a $1/4 week subscription to Financial Times to read it: https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441?fbclid=IwAR3SM33JTpcMK2G0l_4OM5QHXZZBqLj8T6gWtOdhZLwU_Foz2d2LC1BgxVw Example of why I recommend Trevor Bedford as a good follow on Twitter: See what I mean? He's not an alarmist, and when he thinks something is an over- or under- estimate, he'll tell you what he thinks and provide hs reasoning clearly. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foxx Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 54 minutes ago, Augie said: ... The paper aisle? Spooky empty! In a few days I may start auctioning off toilet paper. It could be much more lucrative than winning the Publishers Clearinghouse! I’ll start about $500/roll and go up from there. Based upon what I’ve seen, I’ll get some takers! you best hurry and establish your own, 'corner'. https://twitter.com/V_actually/status/1238103452040990725 or you may want to package it up. credit here goes to the PPP'ers... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 Quick question. If you bought avocados today, do you think Corona Virus could get inside the skin? Ya know everyone was pawing at those things, as was I. rethinkIng homemade guacamole. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foxx Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: . i thought it was a 'guesstimate' put forth by the governor of Ohio which would be essentially semantics but still a difference in wordsmithing and thus, meaning. i might also take exception here in the 'logic', going with the fact that China quarantined all of Wuhan and essentially ground all of the Hubei province to a halt. not exactly an apples to apples comparison. as such, the math is not complete. not that i agree with the Ohio 'guesstimate', just pointing out flaws in the logic used. ETA: in no way am i disparaging you here. you are doing yeoman's work in this thread and i for one am very appreciative as i'm sure many others are as well. Edited March 14, 2020 by Foxx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 11 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said: Quick question. If you bought avocados today, do you think Corona Virus could get inside the skin? Ya know everyone was pawing at those things, as was I. rethinkIng homemade guacamole. LOL I always thought of you as more of a pawing the melons guy. I guess you never can tell...... Go wash your hands! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, Foxx said: i thought it was a 'guesstimate' put forth by the governor of Ohio which would be essentially semantics but still a difference in wordsmithing and thus, meaning. i might also take exception here in the 'logic', going with the fact that China quarantined all of Wuhan and essentially ground all of the Hubei province to a halt. not exactly an apples to apples comparison. as such, the math is not complete. not that i agree with the Ohio 'guesstimate', just pointing out flaws in the logic used. grossly irresponsible publicity seeking by him, he and his sidekick doc had no belief behind the number Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 10 minutes ago, Augie said: I always thought of you as more of a pawing the melons guy. I guess you never can tell...... Go wash your hands! My hands were good, even got the Wegmans to bring a hand sanitizer station by the avocados cause ya have to pick and press the avocado to judge its ripeness right? More than any other fruit by a mile! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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