DCOrange Posted February 28, 2020 Posted February 28, 2020 (edited) Figured I'd let you guys know that I had posted this over on Buffalo Rumblings. Here's the blurb explaining everything in it. https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2020/2/28/21157354/breakdown-of-wr-prospect-metrics-as-well-as-some-other-goodies And here's a direct link to the spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EGcKt-3OhHND7shQmY9LREGwBxtnUcFwQtQDz2U-3tk/edit?usp=sharing Essentially... 1st tab = Positional Rankings from Matt Miller combined with the schools that we've scouted to see a color-coded map of which positions we've scouted the most, who we've scouted, where they rank, etc. 2nd tab = List of prospects that we've met with at the Senior Bowl, Combine, etc. and where they rank at their position. 3rd tab = Breakdown of all the WRs using a combination of metrics from PlayerProfiler.com, Pro Football Focus, and the NFL Combine. This is color-coded relative to their peers so you can see who stands out in each category. I also have additional tables in there where I split them up based on WR type so you can see how all the slot WRs compare to one another, how the wideouts compare, etc. Edited February 28, 2020 by DCOrange 4 2 6
FLFan Posted February 28, 2020 Posted February 28, 2020 On 2/28/2020 at 11:33 AM, DCOrange said: Figured I'd let you guys know that I had posted this over on Buffalo Rumblings. Here's the blurb explaining everything in it. https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2020/2/28/21157354/breakdown-of-wr-prospect-metrics-as-well-as-some-other-goodies And here's a direct link to the spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EGcKt-3OhHND7shQmY9LREGwBxtnUcFwQtQDz2U-3tk/edit?usp=sharing Essentially... 1st tab = Positional Rankings from Matt Miller combined with the schools that we've scouted to see a color-coded map of which positions we've scouted the most, who we've scouted, where they rank, etc. 2nd tab = List of prospects that we've met with at the Senior Bowl, Combine, etc. and where they rank at their position. 3rd tab = Breakdown of all the WRs using a combination of metrics from PlayerProfiler.com, Pro Football Focus, and the NFL Combine. This is color-coded relative to their peers so you can see who stands out in each category. I also have additional tables in there where I split them up based on WR type so you can see how all the slot WRs compare to one another, how the wideouts compare, etc. Expand Many thanks DC. This is a great reference tool as the off-season and draft discussions progress. Much appreciated.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 28, 2020 Posted February 28, 2020 On 2/28/2020 at 11:33 AM, DCOrange said: Figured I'd let you guys know that I had posted this over on Buffalo Rumblings. Here's the blurb explaining everything in it. https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2020/2/28/21157354/breakdown-of-wr-prospect-metrics-as-well-as-some-other-goodies And here's a direct link to the spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EGcKt-3OhHND7shQmY9LREGwBxtnUcFwQtQDz2U-3tk/edit?usp=sharing Essentially... 1st tab = Positional Rankings from Matt Miller combined with the schools that we've scouted to see a color-coded map of which positions we've scouted the most, who we've scouted, where they rank, etc. 2nd tab = List of prospects that we've met with at the Senior Bowl, Combine, etc. and where they rank at their position. 3rd tab = Breakdown of all the WRs using a combination of metrics from PlayerProfiler.com, Pro Football Focus, and the NFL Combine. This is color-coded relative to their peers so you can see who stands out in each category. I also have additional tables in there where I split them up based on WR type so you can see how all the slot WRs compare to one another, how the wideouts compare, etc. Expand Thanks DC Orange, good stuff. From disappointment expressed at the Sr Bowl I think Beane has serious interest in Edwards and Aiyuk. While there, this caught my attention: https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2020/2/27/21156126/wr-nobody-is-talking-about 1
gobills404 Posted February 28, 2020 Posted February 28, 2020 Holy cow Justin Jefferson with a contested catch rate of 92.3%! Next closest is at 66.7%. On 2/28/2020 at 2:42 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said: While there, this caught my attention: https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2020/2/27/21156126/wr-nobody-is-talking-about Expand Cephus was looking like a good day 3 sleeper until he ran a 4.73 in the forty.
Kirby Jackson Posted February 28, 2020 Posted February 28, 2020 Without stating the obvious, the Bills have been all over the WR class. They’ve put a ton of resources into this group. I’m thinking that they take 2. 3
DCOrange Posted February 28, 2020 Author Posted February 28, 2020 On 2/28/2020 at 3:10 PM, Kirby Jackson said: Without stating the obvious, the Bills have been all over the WR class. They’ve put a ton of resources into this group. I’m thinking that they take 2. Expand I would be extremely disappointed if we do not take two. 3
dpberr Posted February 28, 2020 Posted February 28, 2020 Has there ever been an NCAA player with potentially elite route running skills who's been a bust in the NFL? That's a legitimate question to all of you who are far more in the know about the college game and the draft than I am. IMO, that's a metric that's rock solid. You can never have enough WRs who commit to becoming elite route runners. In a league where everyone is fast and strong, that's how you truly get open.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 28, 2020 Posted February 28, 2020 On 2/28/2020 at 3:04 PM, gobills404 said: Holy cow Justin Jefferson with a contested catch rate of 92.3%! Next closest is at 66.7%. Cephus was looking like a good day 3 sleeper until he ran a 4.73 in the forty. Expand What’s his playing speed look like though? I think we all know guys can play faster or slower than their speed in pajamas. Josh Allen would be Exhibit A. Unofficially at Wyo he was said to have run a 4.6 40. 4.75 at the combine, possibly because he was focused on other aspects of preparation. On 2/28/2020 at 3:41 PM, DCOrange said: I would be extremely disappointed if we do not take two. Expand Yeah, but when? Beane seems to be one of the less predictable GMs to the mock draft pundits. I just hope we don’t draft a DB in the 1st or 2nd because about 1/3 of the regulars on this board will need medical intervention if we do - especially if it’s a DII guy.
DCOrange Posted February 28, 2020 Author Posted February 28, 2020 (edited) On 2/28/2020 at 4:23 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said: Yeah, but when? Beane seems to be one of the less predictable GMs to the mock draft pundits. I just hope we don’t draft a DB in the 1st or 2nd because about 1/3 of the regulars on this board will need medical intervention if we do - especially if it’s a DII guy. Expand IMO, I'm looking at Round 2 for my first WR and probably round 4, possibly in a trade up, for my 2nd. Something like this that I just did at The Draft Network would be great and is at least decently realistic (for now at least, obviously a lot of time for draft stock to change still): This assumes we've signed/traded for a WR that is capable of starting (even if it's just someone like Devin Funchess or Geronimo Allison or something like that) and that we've either brought Shaq back or signed a replacement for him so that we aren't relying on Alton as a starter from Day 1. Edited February 28, 2020 by DCOrange 1 1
NewEra Posted February 28, 2020 Posted February 28, 2020 On 2/28/2020 at 11:33 AM, DCOrange said: Figured I'd let you guys know that I had posted this over on Buffalo Rumblings. Here's the blurb explaining everything in it. https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2020/2/28/21157354/breakdown-of-wr-prospect-metrics-as-well-as-some-other-goodies And here's a direct link to the spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EGcKt-3OhHND7shQmY9LREGwBxtnUcFwQtQDz2U-3tk/edit?usp=sharing Essentially... 1st tab = Positional Rankings from Matt Miller combined with the schools that we've scouted to see a color-coded map of which positions we've scouted the most, who we've scouted, where they rank, etc. 2nd tab = List of prospects that we've met with at the Senior Bowl, Combine, etc. and where they rank at their position. 3rd tab = Breakdown of all the WRs using a combination of metrics from PlayerProfiler.com, Pro Football Focus, and the NFL Combine. This is color-coded relative to their peers so you can see who stands out in each category. I also have additional tables in there where I split them up based on WR type so you can see how all the slot WRs compare to one another, how the wideouts compare, etc. Expand Really appreciate your work. Well done! 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 28, 2020 Posted February 28, 2020 On 2/28/2020 at 4:49 PM, DCOrange said: IMO, I'm looking at Round 2 for my first WR and probably round 4, possibly in a trade up, for my 2nd. Something like this that I just did at The Draft Network would be great and is at least decently realistic (for now at least, obviously a lot of time for draft stock to change still): Expand Just “No” to an athletic freak DII safety at pick 22 in round 1. Doesn’t have to be a WR there. Edge. OL. But you got this guy who has never gone up against elite competition, I don’t care how great he looks there’s just no way to really tell that he’s the “Best Player Available” and not just the “Best Athlete Available”. I didn’t think folks believed that Biadasz would last anywhere close to the 3rd round. However, I take your point that Beane is unpredictable and he does love him his high-ceiling low-floor prospects in Rd 1, so Duggar in the 1st can’t be ruled out.
DCOrange Posted February 28, 2020 Author Posted February 28, 2020 On 2/28/2020 at 5:00 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said: Just “No” to an athletic freak DII safety at pick 22 in round 1. Doesn’t have to be a WR there. Edge. OL. But you got this guy who has never gone up against elite competition, I don’t care how great he looks there’s just no way to really tell that he’s the “Best Player Available” and not just the “Best Athlete Available”. I didn’t think folks believed that Biadasz would last anywhere close to the 3rd round. However, I take your point that Beane is unpredictable and he does love him his high-ceiling low-floor prospects in Rd 1, so Duggar in the 1st can’t be ruled out. Expand If not Dugger, there's Delpit, Davis, Winfield, possibly McKinney if he makes it that far. #22 is a good spot for a safety, but I think it's pretty clear Buffalo likes Dugger a lot. He has some developing to do, but Buffalo is the perfect place for that with Frazier/McD coaching him and Hyde/Poyer ahead of him on the depth chart and Dugger offers a combination of skills none of the other safeties do. I don't know what to make of Biadasz draft stock; I remember he was thought of as possibly the best IOL in the draft coming into the year. Seems like this is perceived as a really weak class for IOL and he's stumbled with Cesar Ruiz establishing himself as the #1 guy. 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 28, 2020 Posted February 28, 2020 On 2/28/2020 at 5:07 PM, DCOrange said: If not Dugger, there's Delpit, Davis, Winfield, possibly McKinney if he makes it that far. #22 is a good spot for a safety, but I think it's pretty clear Buffalo likes Dugger a lot. He has some developing to do, but Buffalo is the perfect place for that with Frazier/McD coaching him and Hyde/Poyer ahead of him on the depth chart and Dugger offers a combination of skills none of the other safeties do. I don't know what to make of Biadasz draft stock; I remember he was thought of as possibly the best IOL in the draft coming into the year. Seems like this is perceived as a really weak class for IOL and he's stumbled with Cesar Ruiz establishing himself as the #1 guy. Expand You know, I hear BPA, but at some point, you got to build a team. We got some pretty big needs on both sides of the line. I think it’s a pretty tough sell that the BPA at #22 is gonna be a safety. However, in case you are correct that the Bills will draft one of 5 or 6 safeties in preference to any great OL or Edge or LB or WR who might be available, I shall consult my fellow moderators. We shall stock the Mod Bunker in case we have to make a 3-month Strategic Retreat from the inevitable Board Mayhem that would understandably occur. Let me just say, I hope you’re wrong. 1
DCOrange Posted February 28, 2020 Author Posted February 28, 2020 On 2/28/2020 at 5:14 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said: You know, I hear BPA, but at some point, you got to build a team. We got some pretty big needs on both sides of the line. I think it’s a pretty tough sell that the BPA at #22 is gonna be a safety. However, in case you are correct that the Bills will draft one of 5 or 6 safeties in preference to any great OL or Edge or LB or WR who might be available, I shall consult my fellow moderators. We shall stock the Mod Bunker in case we have to make a 3-month Strategic Retreat from the inevitable Board Mayhem that would understandably occur. Let me just say, I hope you’re wrong. Expand I think safety is a pretty decent need; just not necessarily for this upcoming season. But either Poyer or Hyde will be gone soon and this is a good spot to get their replacement. Bonus points with Dugger because you can use him in other spots to fill in some gaps too. It'll depend on what's available at #22; I don't really expect there to be an OLineman worth taking (I assume Beane wants to keep Ford at OT despite what he's said in the media and as mentioned before, it's a weak class for guards). That basically leaves WR, Edge, and CB as the relatively pressing needs. We can get the same quality WR in the 2nd as we do at #22 and we'll likely somewhat address it in free agency anyways. I think we'll address at least one of CB/edge in free agency if not both and don't necessarily think the corners and edge guys are worth the pick personally; certainly think you can argue for the safeties being on par if not better prospects than the options we'll likely have at corner and edge.
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted February 28, 2020 Posted February 28, 2020 (edited) On 2/28/2020 at 3:04 PM, gobills404 said: Holy cow Justin Jefferson with a contested catch rate of 92.3%! Next closest is at 66.7%. Cephus was looking like a good day 3 sleeper until he ran a 4.73 in the forty. Expand does that mean Jefferson can’t get open, or that he is always open? maybe he didn’t hear the whistle? Edited February 28, 2020 by Over 29 years of fanhood
DCOrange Posted February 28, 2020 Author Posted February 28, 2020 On 2/28/2020 at 5:33 PM, Over 29 years of fanhood said: does that mean Jefferson can’t get open, or that he is always open? maybe he didn’t hear the whistle? Expand To be fair, the contested catch rates are generally small sample size since offenses are much more spread in college. For Jefferson, he caught 12 of 13 contested passes. 1
Allen2Moulds Posted February 28, 2020 Posted February 28, 2020 On 2/28/2020 at 4:49 PM, DCOrange said: IMO, I'm looking at Round 2 for my first WR and probably round 4, possibly in a trade up, for my 2nd. Something like this that I just did at The Draft Network would be great and is at least decently realistic (for now at least, obviously a lot of time for draft stock to change still): This assumes we've signed/traded for a WR that is capable of starting (even if it's just someone like Devin Funchess or Geronimo Allison or something like that) and that we've either brought Shaq back or signed a replacement for him so that we aren't relying on Alton as a starter from Day 1. Expand I'm a big fan of Mimms, and Badazz. Mimms caught my eye a few weeks back. Like the majority of us, I was doing some armchair GM/YouTube scouting, and besides the consensus top 2 (lamb,Jeudy), the 2 that popped off the screen for me was Mimms, and Ruggs. I also like Jefferson. I like Mimms, because we can potentially draft a top OT, or DE with or 1st pick, and get someone like Mimms or Jefferson in the 2nd. Mimms just looks like a specimen. He's not just big, or fast, he's both, and can also play the position. 1
PIZ Posted February 28, 2020 Posted February 28, 2020 On 2/28/2020 at 3:41 PM, DCOrange said: I would be extremely disappointed if we do not take two. Expand Claypool and Hamler.
DCOrange Posted February 28, 2020 Author Posted February 28, 2020 On 2/28/2020 at 5:50 PM, PIZ said: Claypool and Hamler. Expand I think that would probably require having two 2nd round picks, which is doable, but obviously we'd need to make a trade to make that happen.
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted February 28, 2020 Posted February 28, 2020 On 2/28/2020 at 5:00 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said: Just “No” to an athletic freak DII safety at pick 22 in round 1. Doesn’t have to be a WR there. Edge. OL. But you got this guy who has never gone up against elite competition, I don’t care how great he looks there’s just no way to really tell that he’s the “Best Player Available” and not just the “Best Athlete Available”. I didn’t think folks believed that Biadasz would last anywhere close to the 3rd round. However, I take your point that Beane is unpredictable and he does love him his high-ceiling low-floor prospects in Rd 1, so Duggar in the 1st can’t be ruled out. Expand this is where I am too. It would be hard to rationalize taking any safety or taking a D2 player in the first round. But a D2 safety in the first round?
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