GDT: New Hampshire Primary

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, B-Man said:

Turnout Numbers In New Hampshire Signal Big Trouble for Democrats

https://www.redstate.com/bonchie/2020/02/11/turnout-in-new-hampshire-spells-very-bad-news-for-democrats-in-2020/

 

Wow.

 

Guess people really read things how they want to, huh?

 

Bernie Sanders is the presumptive Democratic nominee????

 

Geez I told myself I'd stay away from this place for a few months at least because I knew there would be inevitable ridiculous overreactions in the first 2 of these contests, which are likely not going to be the first 2 contests at some point in the near future because of how poorly these 2 states represent the Democratic party demographically.

 

2 things:

 

1) Crediting the Republican primary for voter turnout in democratic numbers is pretty hilarious. Voters can't vote BOTH Democrat and Republican, so I have no clue what the hell some of you are thinking. I could see you crediting Trump, but not in a positive way. Voters will turn out in primaries as voters will turn out in the General (in greater numbers) because Trump is President... so you're right there. Afterall, as posters like @Deranged Rhino will note, New Hampshire primaries are exceeding even 2008 levels.

 

so, there's that...

 

2) Bernie as the presumptive nominee????  Look... I will vote Sanders or Warren if they become the nominee but I don't prefer them and I really don't think it will be them. Bernie won 60% of the state in 2016. Right now he doesn't even have 26%. The 3 moderates (Pete, Amy, Joe) more than double Bernie's support... and that's a big deal. It is still soooooo early in this Primary season, but 2 of the most left wing candidates have underperformed in states a lot of people thought they'd win handily. There's good reason it will likely be one of the moderates as the Democratic candidate and even the most liberal of Democratic states are seeing that...

 

it's all about beating Trump in November.

 

November... 8 months away...

[Rob's House]

Looks like Pocahontas is near the end of the road. I'm kind of surprised. I said she's a straight shooter with Commander in Chief written all over her.

 

 

[TakeYouToTasker]

2 hours ago, snafu said:

 

Is it me, or do these numbers not look too good for Bernie?

This is his backyard. This was the shoo-in primary for him. He couldn’t even get a third of the votes, and all I heard was that he had all the momentum going into the night. Big night for the phony “moderates”. Bad night for the ultra left.

 

 

 

 

 

This isn’t an improvement for Bernie, really.

 

He performed within the same margin of error last cycle.

[whatdrought]

32 minutes ago, Rob's House said:

Looks like Pocahontas is near the end of the road. I'm kind of surprised. I said she's a straight shooter with Commander in Chief written all over her.

 

 

Is it written in war paint, by chance?

[Doc Brown]

1 hour ago, TakeYouToTasker said:

This isn’t an improvement for Bernie, really.

 

He performed within the same margin of error last cycle.

It would've been way more disastrous if he lost though.  He has a solid base of supporters (around 25%) compared to any of the other candidates.  I think that was Trump's floor too if I recall correctly early in the 2016 primaries and there was talk about the plurarlity of Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich beating Trump but none of them dropped out until it was too late.  You may have a similar situation here.

[Doc Brown]

3 hours ago, snafu said:

 

Is it me, or do these numbers not look too good for Bernie?

This is his backyard. This was the shoo-in primary for him. He couldn’t even get a third of the votes, and all I heard was that he had all the momentum going into the night. Big night for the phony “moderates”. Bad night for the ultra left.

Except a lot of 2nd choice voters when polled went from Biden to Bernie, Warren to Klobachar, Biden to Buttigieg, Warren to Sanders, etc...  Ideology plays a role but there's other factors that make up people's minds (what candidate they like better on a personal level, who they think can best beat Trump, etc...).  It's really just fruitless to try and predict right now and will be interesting to see how it turns out.

[fansince88]

7 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

Wow that is baaaaaaaad for Warren

I dont know....Pete is up there.

[TakeYouToTasker]

5 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

It would've been way more disastrous if he lost though.  He has a solid base of supporters (around 25%) compared to any of the other candidates.  I think that was Trump's floor too if I recall correctly early in the 2016 primaries and there was talk about the plurarlity of Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich beating Trump but none of them dropped out until it was too late.  You may have a similar situation here.

Biden and Warren need to drop out of the race, and Kobluchar and Mr. Mayor need to figure out which way they are going to stack their ticket, otherwise Sanders will win unless the DNC spikes him again.

 

That said, I don’t think Sanders will get the support of traditional Democrats.  His base is not a Democratic base, and I think that 25% may be very isolated.

[GG]

1 minute ago, TakeYouToTasker said:

Biden and Warren need to drop out of the race, and Kobluchar and Mr. Mayor need to figure out which way they are going to stack their ticket, otherwise Sanders will win unless the DNC spikes him again.

 

That said, I don’t think Sanders will get the support of traditional Democrats.  His base is not a Democratic base, and I think that 25% may be very isolated.

 

There's been an avalanche of Dem voices hitting Sanders in the last week.  I think it will be tough for him to rise above his 25% base, and Perez will start hitting the Biden & Warren campaigns to drop out very soon.

[BuffaloHokie13]

11 hours ago, B-Man said:

 STEPHEN GREEN • FEBRUARY 11@08:32 PM CHAT 0 COMMENTS

 

Warren is giving the worst-damn non-concession speech since the night Hillary passed out instead of admitting she's lost to Trump.

 

 

Warren says she wants "an America where we can breathe the air and drink the water."

 

We can't?

 

OK, chief.

Don't call her that or she'll start putting it on her job applications. 

[IDBillzFan]

9 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Bernie Sanders is the presumptive Democratic nominee????

 

Warren is done. The numbers don't lie. She has no way to get there.

 

Biden is virtually done. He's inches away from punching an old lady in the face because she said her dad was a "hunter."

 

The only thing keeping this from Bernie is, again, the DNC, who will probably shift to Bloomberg and his billions and find a way to screw Bernie again.

[transplantbillsfan]

48 minutes ago, IDBillzFan said:

 

Warren is done. The numbers don't lie. She has no way to get there.

 

Biden is virtually done. He's inches away from punching an old lady in the face because she said her dad was a "hunter."

 

The only thing keeping this from Bernie is, again, the DNC, who will probably shift to Bloomberg and his billions and find a way to screw Bernie again.

 

Again... the "moderates" got more than double the votes of Bernie in 2 of the most left leaning states democratically.

 

Those 2 states--2% of all voting delegates--do not a Democratic nominee make.

 

And even in those states Bernie underperformed.

 

But have your fun.

 

The nominee is probably not Bernie.

[GG]

2 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Again... the "moderates" got more than double the votes of Bernie in 2 of the most left leaning states democratically.

 

Those 2 states--2% of all voting delegates--do not a Democratic nominee make.

 

And even in those states Bernie underperformed.

 

But have your fun.

 

The nominee is probably not Bernie.

 

For once, I agree with you.

 

But it will be fun seeing the Bernie Bro meltdown when the inevitable happens.

[/dev/null]

2 hours ago, TakeYouToTasker said:

Biden and Warren need to drop out of the race, and Kobluchar and Mr. Mayor need to figure out which way they are going to stack their ticket

I disagree.  Warren, Biden, Klobaucher, etc need to all stay in the race and this needs to go to the convention

 

Instead of candidates regurgitating platitudes on the campaign trail, let's see what the DNC really stands for

[LeviF]

Butteggegg will be the nominee provided something weird doesn't happen with Bloomberg.  He's the sodomite son of a literal communist with a very thin veneer of disingenuous likability.  You couldn't ask for a more perfect mascot for the DNC in 2020.

[Doc Brown]

6 hours ago, TakeYouToTasker said:

Biden and Warren need to drop out of the race, and Kobluchar and Mr. Mayor need to figure out which way they are going to stack their ticket, otherwise Sanders will win unless the DNC spikes him again.

 

That said, I don’t think Sanders will get the support of traditional Democrats.  His base is not a Democratic base, and I think that 25% may be very isolated.

Trump's initial rock solid base base weren't all traditional Conservatives either.  There were some Independents who never really took an interest to politics and crossover Democrats.  His big selling point among those people was bringing jobs back from overseas because of unfair trade deals.  The hesitant Republicans voted for him in the general because they hated the other side.  I don't think that will be the case with Sanders because telling middle class people they're going to raise their taxes should be a death sentence as far as electability goes.  I could very well be wrong though.

 

It's looking at this point as similar to the 2016 GOP primaries.  I remember talk at the time of well once Rubio, Kasich, or Cruz drop off all their supporters will gravitate towards them as Trump's ceiling was low heading into Super Tuesday.  The problem was none obliged until it was too late because who doesn't want to be the next president.  The longer Biden, Klobachar, Warren, Buttigieg, and now Bloomberg stay in the more likely Sanders will squeak by with between 25 to 30% in a lot of these states.  A lot can change but that's how I see it at this point.

[B-Man]