The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[Gene Frenkle]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

I wish China had been upfront about the Wuhan virus. Think about how many more lives could have been saved.

 

Or maybe GG is right and it's going to peak in various locations as it pleases and then move on. It already seems like it was in the US well before we initially thought. Maybe it's all for nothing. Nobody knows. It's frustrating.

 

Still, I agree with the cautious approach.

[Buffalo_Gal]

Just now, Gene Frenkle said:

 

Or maybe GG is right and it's going to peak in various locations as it pleases and then move on. It already seems like it was in the US well before we initially thought. Maybe it's all for nothing. Nobody knows. It's frustrating.

 

Still, I agree with the cautious approach.

I agree with that.
 

[Gene Frenkle]

23 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

You've been wrong about most everything else, why stop now? 

 

BTW, everyone has been wrong about lots of things with this virus, including you. Don't act like you've had all the answers or something like that.

[shoshin]

TX Hospitalized with Covid data through 6/22. About ~2.5-3x what it was in early June. This is why Abbott is considering new shutdowns. 

 

[Buffalo_Gal]

Just now, Gene Frenkle said:

 

BTW, everyone has been wrong about lots of things with this virus, including you. Don't act like you've had all the answers or something like that.

I know I have been wrong. I keep saying "everybody's gonna get it."  It may happen, or it may die out before that happens, or a vaccine may be developed before it happens. From what they "currently" know, it is unlikely the under 15 crowd is gonna get it. So that part of "everybody" is out.

 

[Gene Frenkle]

Just now, Buffalo_Gal said:

I know I have been wrong. I keep saying "everybody's gonna get it."  It may happen, or it may die out before that happens, or a vaccine may be developed before it happens. From what they "currently" know, it is unlikely the under 15 crowd is gonna get it. So that part of "everybody" is out.

 

 

That wasn't directed at you, but you are included in "everyone". ?

[Buffalo_Gal]

2 minutes ago, shoshin said:

TX Hospitalized with Covid data through 6/22. About ~2.5-3x what it was in early June. This is why Abbott is considering new shutdowns. 

 

4K hospitalizations out of 29 million people!? They will crucify him if he shuts down for that.

 

[spartacus]

21 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

European countries have largely closed borders right now. Easy to keep cases low once you've locked ***** down. There have not been any case rises on reopening in Europe. This could be good tracing, protecting vulnerable, and keeping travel from high case areas out (because you can't track those folks as well). 

 

I'm not sure the US can replicate that if we have high case states next to low case states and there's travel between them. 

 

But your point was why I was asking about the fact that there has been no resurgence anywhere last week. 

European countries have no ability to control their borders with their fellow EU members.

they ceded that ability to the EU.

 

[GG]

5 minutes ago, spartacus said:

European countries have no ability to control their borders with their fellow EU members.

they ceded that ability to the EU.

 

 

They reinstated border controls in April.  Some countries started opening up in June

[Buffalo_Gal]

Just now, GG said:

 

They reinstated border controls in April.  Some countries started opening up in June

Current temporary restrictions. 

 

[shoshin]

37 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

4K hospitalizations out of 29 million people!? They will crucify him if he shuts down for that.

 

 

Your "point" is senseless but you were so wrong on the masks that it's not surprising. 

 

By way of explanation, that's not how you do the math. You do it vs bed capacity. And you do that calculation regionally. 

 

 

 

 

[spartacus]

32 minutes ago, GG said:

 

They reinstated border controls in April.  Some countries started opening up in June

good luck with enforcing your borders after years of dismantling the operations

how do you enforce the rules with no employees or infrastructure no longer in place

[Buffalo_Gal]

1 minute ago, shoshin said:

 

Your "point" is senseless but you were so wrong on the masks that it's not surprising. 

 

By way of explanation, that's not how you do the math. You do it vs bed capacity. And you do that calculation regionally.

 

I was wrong about the masks!? You have not seen people cover their faces to prevent being identified while rioting and looting this past month? All the lovely little reports showing masks are little better than placebos (unless N95)?  M'kay. You and I clearly have very different ideas about "wrong." 

4K hospital beds taken by COVID-19 patients out of 80K acute care beds statewide (according to this 2016 report), in a state with 29M people is cause for a lock down? Abbot said there were 20K available beds available for COVID-19 back in April.

 

[shoshin]

33 minutes ago, GG said:

 

They reinstated border controls in April.  Some countries started opening up in June

 

If your neighbor is a low-case country willing to enact controls similar to yours, no big deal to open borders. No pee-in-the-pool issues.

 

Here, if you're a US state with a low case count and the state down the road is putting up 5K new cases a day, you can't effectively stop the spread of the pee from the high case state to the low case state. This was one of the most repeated criticisms of the state-by-state approach. 

 

Make no mistake: No one wanted a one-size fits all national plan. But a single plan whereby decisions were made by regions/areas makes a lot of sense. Or even following the CDC guidelines would have been sensible. We now will wait and see what happens as we reopen. Maybe the spikes will result in very little, or maybe they will be regional and there will be no spread. 

[shoshin]

14 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

I was wrong about the masks!? You have not seen people cover their faces to prevent being identified while rioting and looting this past month? All the lovely little reports showing masks are little better than placebos (unless N95)?  M'kay. You and I clearly have very different ideas about "wrong." 

 

Nothing credible ever said masks are better than placebos in this pandemic. All you found was your simple reading of a study about HCWs in hospital settings. 

 

Quote

4K hospital beds taken by COVID-19 patients out of 80K acute care beds statewide (according to this 2016 report), in a state with 29M people is cause for a lock down? Abbot said there were 20K available beds available for COVID-19 back in April.

 

 

Governor Abbott is singing a different tune these days, likely because having beds is not the same as having caregivers to man the beds. And likely because he now sees the problem up close and personal. If you look at the SE region of TX, their bed usage is getting pretty close to 100%, and if they just have one more week like the one past, they will be at 100%. They can stretch some capacity and get more people in but not a lot. 

 

For Abbott to be telling Texans not to go out if they don't need to is not the message of a TX Governor who has any chance of wanting to win re-election--it's the message of a guy who's starting to see a problem brewing. Hopefully the TX rise stops soon and he doesn't have to do more. 

 

Gov Abbott: 

 

“There remain a lot of people in the state of Texas [and also B-Gal in Buffalo NY] who think that the spread of COVID-19 is really not a challenge. Know this, and that is today, Texas will report an all-time high in the number of cases of people testing positive of more than 5,000. As you pointed out, the hospitalization rate is at an all time high. The coronavirus is serious. It’s spreading in Brazos County, across the entire state of Texas, which is exactly why action is being taken.”

 

“First, we want to make sure that everyone reinforces the best safe practices of wearing a mask, hand sanitization, maintaining safe distance, but importantly, because the spread is so rampant right now, there’s never a reason for you to have to leave your home. Unless you do need to go out, the safest place for you is at your home,”

Edited June 24, 2020 by shoshin

[spartacus]

Just now, shoshin said:

 

Nothing credible ever said masks are better than placebos in this pandemic. All you found was your simple reading of a study about HCWs in hospital settings. 

 

 

these dudes disagree in the NE Journal of Medicine article below

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2006372?fbclid=IwAR1EoJkVn0xxmfBb6RNhasEb2XXM6E2Lr-p7YOMrvMFl9iMBwKPQLl96lIo

We know that wearing a mask outside health care facilities offers little, if any, protection from infection. Public health authorities define a significant exposure to Covid-19 as face-to-face contact within 6 feet with a patient with symptomatic Covid-19 that is sustained for at least a few minutes (and some say more than 10 minutes or even 30 minutes). The chance of catching Covid-19 from a passing interaction in a public space is therefore minimal. In many cases, the desire for widespread masking is a reflexive reaction to anxiety over the pandemic.

 

probably because they understand that under the laws of physics, a covid particle up .14 micron can not be stopped by a N-95 mask that only stops particles down to .3 microns. cloth masks and other face coverings are worthless, no matter who is wearing it

 

[Koko78]

39 minutes ago, shoshin said:

Your "point" is senseless but you were so wrong on the masks that it's not surprising. 

 

By way of explanation, that's not how you do the math. You do it vs bed capacity. And you do that calculation regionally.

 

Then after you perform the regional calculation, you institute arbitrary, ridiculous, and nonsensical rules in the name of 'science'.

[bilzfancy]

Wondering what the numbers are for people testing positive that wore masks vs. those that didn't.

[shoshin]

27 minutes ago, Koko78 said:

 

Then after you perform the regional calculation, you institute arbitrary, ridiculous, and nonsensical rules in the name of 'science'.

 

A flipside option is to do nothing and pray the hospitals can keep up, which is not even bad science, but faith. 

 

 

 

Edited June 24, 2020 by shoshin

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

4K hospitalizations out of 29 million people!? They will crucify him if he shuts down for that.

 

 

Doubt he'd shut the state down at this point, but a strong case could be made for increasing "social distancing" measures if the hospitalization rate (or worse, the death rate) goes up much more.