GaryPinC Posted July 27, 2020 Posted July 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, GG said: The Hasids are an old world insular sect of Judaism that's concentrated in Williamsburg (Brooklyn). It's a very close knit community that still thinks it's 19th century Hungary. Given their lifestyle and housing arrangements, this virus should have wiped them out. Yet despite the high early cases, and the Nazi mayor's best efforts, they remain very much alive. NY kids have flouted all social distancing rules ever since the bars started curbside orders. No social distancing, no masks. It's been proven that the prevalence of the spread is in the home, and that's why the worst hit neighborhoods were the ones with the largest household sizes (not poverty).Therefore, if the virus was still lingering in NY, there would have been a massive resurgence starting in mid-June. Thanks for the explanation, I'll have to dig deeper into that one. But again, acquired immunity is still a big unknown here and we're conducting so many infection tests not sure when we'll get good numbers on immunity. The virus is not gone from NYC. Rest assured of that. It could be eradicated but it requires an Asian persistence which we don't put up with sacrificing that many of our rights in this country. Also, one other big factor is your infection rate outdoors vs indoors. Certainly experts don't think it's that different but I respectfully disagree with them.
Magox Posted July 27, 2020 Posted July 27, 2020 41 minutes ago, GaryPinC said: You're certainly right about most everything except the laughable part. You keep at the efforts to control it until you get control then really need to use contact tracing to keep it under control. But even then people need to take the prevention steps. The baseline can come down, isolation and these other measures help that. You are confusing what I am saying and somehow translating it into this argument in your head. I didn't say that masks, contact tracing nor additional tests shouldn't be conducted. What I said is that when there is an outbreak, that they have a marginal effect. I said that I wear masks, more out of courtesy to my fellow neighbors. That contact tracing and additional testing in a targeted manner can help those that are most vulnerable. But, the idea that they are some sort of golden ticket solution is naive. I could list you tons of examples, which I have in previous posts. I'm not going to keep rehashing them over and over. They are there, if you want to find them, then go back and dig through the posts. 1 1
GG Posted July 27, 2020 Posted July 27, 2020 15 minutes ago, GaryPinC said: Thanks for the explanation, I'll have to dig deeper into that one. But again, acquired immunity is still a big unknown here and we're conducting so many infection tests not sure when we'll get good numbers on immunity. The virus is not gone from NYC. Rest assured of that. It could be eradicated but it requires an Asian persistence which we don't put up with sacrificing that many of our rights in this country. Also, one other big factor is your infection rate outdoors vs indoors. Certainly experts don't think it's that different but I respectfully disagree with them. Nobody is arguing that the virus is fully gone. But the sane people want to bring the discussion back to the reality of the trade-off that occurs when you lock down a region. The virus is less prevalent and is far less dangerous than what it was in March. And you have a rising number of deaths and correlated ills by maintaining strict lockdowns. If the virus was exhibiting these exact features in March, there's no chance in hell you would have a lockdown. That's the question that needs to be answered, what's the likelihood of the virus returning to March form in areas that were already hard hit? The evidence so far is clear, there's been no resurgence in any areas that were previously hard hit. 2 1
Magox Posted July 27, 2020 Posted July 27, 2020 What I like about Alex is that he cuts through the mainstream panic porn with facts and data. He's not afraid to go out on a limb and make predictions and far more often than not he is right and the mainstream analysis is wrong. Dude has been a baller when it comes to COVID-19 analysis and data. 3
GaryPinC Posted July 27, 2020 Posted July 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, GG said: Nobody is arguing that the virus is fully gone. But the sane people want to bring the discussion back to the reality of the trade-off that occurs when you lock down a region. The virus is less prevalent and is far less dangerous than what it was in March. And you have a rising number of deaths and correlated ills by maintaining strict lockdowns. If the virus was exhibiting these exact features in March, there's no chance in hell you would have a lockdown. That's the question that needs to be answered, what's the likelihood of the virus returning to March form in areas that were already hard hit? The evidence so far is clear, there's been no resurgence in any areas that were previously hard hit. Yep, I definitely agree with you about the evidence of no resurgence so far. To answer the likelihood of the virus returning in March form, two things are important, was what NYC went through because lax preparation allowed undetected superspreading or was it an isoform of the virus that drove the R0 to become very high? Not sure we have enough captured data to determine that. You can argue either way on it, you can look at Michigan's journey (similar to NYC) vs Ohio or look at California and the south.
B-Man Posted July 27, 2020 Posted July 27, 2020 MATT RIDLEY: 5 reasons why the coronavirus nightmare may soon be over.
Magox Posted July 27, 2020 Posted July 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, B-Man said: MATT RIDLEY: 5 reasons why the coronavirus nightmare may soon be over. Paywall Can you post the bullet points of each of the five?
B-Man Posted July 27, 2020 Posted July 27, 2020 12 minutes ago, Magox said: Paywall Can you post the bullet points of each of the five? Sorry, Straight to his site.........http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/why-the-coronavirus-nightmare-may-soon-be-over/ 2
GaryPinC Posted July 27, 2020 Posted July 27, 2020 1 hour ago, Magox said: He says there’s evidence to suggest that the only effective face covering might be a visor, because the virus can spread through all mucous membranes, including via the eyes. He worries a cloth covering that only protects the nose and mouth provides a “false sense of security.” “All these countries recommending face masks haven’t made their decisions based on new studies,” Bundgaard said in an interview in Copenhagen. State epidemiologist Anders Tegnell said in June that masks are “possibly” to be recommended for people using public transport, but added that such coverings “definitely won’t become an optimal solution in any way,” in an interview with Dagens Industri. Bundgaard says the simple rules that currently exist in Denmark -- hand-washing, social distancing, self-isolating if you’re sick -- are effective because they’re easy to remember. He worries that using face masks might lead people to be “sloppy” in following the other guidelines. So on this front you were incorrect in your description to why they don't believe masks are that effective, which is something you failed to mention. That you can catch the virus through droplets in your eyes and that mask usage is highly subjective in the sense that people often times wear them wrong and providing a false sense of security. No, you failed to understand what I was saying. I was saying from this description it sounds like Bundgaard's study focused on if masks self-protect. That is one facet of mask wearing, a more important one is that it protects others. If he finds a face shield is better self-protection it doesn't invalidate the utility of masks to protect others. If his study finds masks don't significantly self-protect, we should be careful not to condemn masks unless he also shows it doesn't protect others. But I absolutely mentioned he feels like people would eschew other self protection and over-rely on masks. 1 hour ago, Magox said: I do, it's what I do for a living. It's a passion of mine. The bolded and highlighted part is all gibberish and added nothing to this discussion. I understand variables and how data is collected can affect outcomes. That gibberish means us scientists go beyond variables and how data is collected. It deals more with scope and shortcomings of the entire study. I have tried to replicate data following exact methods in peer reviewed journals and come up short. Sometimes it's a problem on my end and sometimes it's a problem with their study. 1 hour ago, Magox said: To the below point, was I one of the ones saying that it wasn't as bad the flu? Nope, you got me confused for someone else. Was I one of the ones who were attributing the rise due to increased testing? Nope, you got me confused for someone else. Even though testing clearly is a reason for the confirmed positives but prevalency is something that I follow closely with the Percent Positive rate. That was after all in a post on that very same page to the one responded to? Before you start spitting your venom, at least attribute it to the right person. I was asking because there are many who looked at the data and did just that. Glad it wasn't you, but it happens all the time. 1 hour ago, Magox said: That's not what I said, and again your ability to comprehend what you are reading is blinding you. This was in the context of Shoshin and someone else stating that increased testing and contact tracing after the first initial wave was going to be the key to controlling the spread. I said that it wouldn't work. That it wouldn't work because the baseline of true infections was too high for that to be effective. That there were way too many asymptomatics along with the confirmed positives to make this happen. They argued that it could work, I argued that I don't operate off of could's but what would happen. And what I said was correct. You have a good point and so do they. Certainly once your baseline went down it's fairly routine epidemiological methods Shoshin was talking about. My apologies for misunderstanding your end of it. 1 hour ago, Magox said: Nutty right wing extremists? Now the truth comes out. You're a partisan that is immune to facts and data. People of color and people in cities run by the left have the overwhelming % of those that have tested positive. With that statement, now I know that you are not a serious person. Haha. Nutty left wing extremists, nutty right wing extremists and me somewhere in the middle. I voted Trump too. Left wing snowflakes need their safe spaces, right wing snowflakes need their conspiracy spaces. Listen to 'em both howl and moan! 1 hour ago, Magox said: Sure there is. There is plenty of evidence to suggest that. Where have you been? Clearly you are not in tune with what's happening. Now is it conclusive evidence? No, but there is plenty of evidence to suggest that "herd immunity" would help slow the spread of the virus significantly. No conclusive data evidence? So sometimes you're all about the hard data when it suits you and sometimes you're not? Certainly acquired immunity will help slow the spread. The problem is we haven't figured out the nature of the acquired immunity, what percent of post-infected have it and for how long? 1 hour ago, Magox said: In regards to returning back to normalcy. I'm ok with wearing masks. Never said that I wasn't, in fact I have said over and over that I wear them when I am going to be near other people in public. What I did say is that they are overstated and they are. There is less than 1% doubt in my mind of that. I don't know if you're familiar with R0. If not, here's a link that does a decent job without getting lost in the weeds. https://labblog.uofmhealth.org/rounds/how-scientists-quantify-intensity-of-an-outbreak-like-covid-19 There are a lot of factors to get our R0 under 1 and keep it there. Certainly the draconian Asians are the most effective. In the absence of that, masks, social distancing, hand washing, etc. take on extra importance with a novel virus like Covid. I don't argue with you that mask wearing is overstated at times. But to avoid lockdowns we need to take their use and the other measures seriously. Not wait until a family member or friend has their lungs damaged or even dies. It rubs me the wrong way that people overblow having to wear masks so much when it's so simple and helpful an act. Sorry if you got caught in the blow-by.
B-Man Posted July 27, 2020 Posted July 27, 2020 PROGRESS: Antiviral method against herpes paves the way for combatting incurable viral infections.
GaryPinC Posted July 27, 2020 Posted July 27, 2020 1 hour ago, Magox said: You are confusing what I am saying and somehow translating it into this argument in your head. I didn't say that masks, contact tracing nor additional tests shouldn't be conducted. What I said is that when there is an outbreak, that they have a marginal effect. I said that I wear masks, more out of courtesy to my fellow neighbors. That contact tracing and additional testing in a targeted manner can help those that are most vulnerable. But, the idea that they are some sort of golden ticket solution is naive. I could list you tons of examples, which I have in previous posts. I'm not going to keep rehashing them over and over. They are there, if you want to find them, then go back and dig through the posts. I don't think so. Yes, they are only part of the solution but an important part. As I said I didn't disagree with what you are saying except for the laughable part. For me, it's ok for people to latch onto them as a solution, infinitely better than pretending it's all a democrat/left wing conspiracy.
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted July 27, 2020 Posted July 27, 2020 ....strip away Trump, TDS etc and address the pandemic with him completely removed from the equation and this hypothetically being a NON-election year.......now tell me where we are in this whole Covid-19 occurrence........normal flu-like?......Hong Kong or Ebola like that took time to digest and solve?......do we measure this against 649,000 annual cardio related deaths annually to gauge where Covid-19 fits in the nation's medical challenges?.....just curious.... 1
jburt2625 Posted July 27, 2020 Posted July 27, 2020 43 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said: Dear Mr. PRESIDENT, You're a moron. Sincerely, Normal people
Magox Posted July 27, 2020 Posted July 27, 2020 (edited) @GaryPinC When there is a lack of conclusive Evidence, It’s not the evidence that suits me that I consider credible rather the preponderance of it. There is plenty of evidence to suggest that with cross reactive T cell immunities from pas human coronaviruses (common colds) along with around 20%+ COVID-19 antibody infection rate of a particular area/city does create a herd-like immunity. Reaches “burnout”. I probably have at least 10 posts regarding burnout. When cities/areas reach around this level of COVID-19 infections the virus tends to burnout. Prevalency begins to trend lower until the virus essentially run out of steam. The R-naught factor which you referenced gets to a point where there simply aren’t enough hosts to spread the virus efficiently. Why do you think places like Northern Italy, Madrid, Newark, NYC, Bridgeport, Boston, Stockholm, Brussels, among other places just seemed to burnout and not have a hint of reemergence of high viral COVID-19 prevalency? The crossreactive T cell immunities is a seldom heard story that has a lot of oomph to it. There have been recent papers written on it and the data that is available points to there being some there there. Edited July 27, 2020 by Magox 2
TH3 Posted July 27, 2020 Posted July 27, 2020 35 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said: ....strip away Trump, TDS etc and address the pandemic with him completely removed from the equation and this hypothetically being a NON-election year.......now tell me where we are in this whole Covid-19 occurrence........normal flu-like?......Hong Kong or Ebola like that took time to digest and solve?......do we measure this against 649,000 annual cardio related deaths annually to gauge where Covid-19 fits in the nation's medical challenges?.....just curious.... When you say TDS ....are you referring the smaller and smaller pool of US citizens still deranged enough to believe in him?
Magox Posted July 27, 2020 Posted July 27, 2020 This just goes back to the argument that was posed months ago that many of the people who are dying of COVID-19 were literally in their last months, weeks if not days. Palm beach’s deaths averaged 77 years old with 3 comorbidities. Read the article, it’s fascinating. Also hospital trends looking better in Florida. And check this out. The lines are empty. It’s anecdotal but it jives with the lower test positivity rate they are seeing. Very likely that Miami has hit around 20% COVID-19 antibody infections. I would imagine Miami will begin to trend down nicely in many stats across the board. 2 3
SoCal Deek Posted July 27, 2020 Posted July 27, 2020 24 minutes ago, Magox said: This just goes back to the argument that was posed months ago that many of the people who are dying of COVID-19 were literally in their last months, weeks if not days. Palm beach’s deaths averaged 77 years old with 3 comorbidities. Read the article, it’s fascinating. Also hospital trends looking better in Florida. And check this out. The lines are empty. It’s anecdotal but it jives with the lower test positivity rate they are seeing. Very likely that Miami has hit around 20% COVID-19 antibody infections. I would imagine Miami will begin to trend down nicely in many stats across the board. Those pictures are EXACTLY what testing centers look like in Southern California! Neither testing center that I visited last week had any line whatsoever for a test, and my appointment was made that same day or the night before. 1
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