Allen or Watson ( Who would you rather have leading your team Saturday)

[Jaywrizzo]

On 1/1/2020 at 6:21 PM, elijah said:

If you’re choosing Allen over Watson you’re blinding yourself as a Bills fan. 

 

This shouldn’t be a debate. 

 

Im as big of an Allen supporter as there is, but Watson is primed to be one of the best in the league for a long long time. 

Is this a serious question? Hahahahaha.....The sad part is, U people are serious.....I like Allen and what he COULD be....That dude is not even close to Watson right now....I'm sure the same people that voted Allen, would tell U he's better than a young Aaron Rogers too.....That's how crazy your answer is.

Edited January 4, 2020 by Jaywrizzo

[thebandit27]

42 minutes ago, Jaywrizzo said:

Is this a serious question? Hahahahaha.....The sad part is, U people are serious.....I like Allen and what he COULD be....That dude is not even close to Watson right now....I'm sure the same people that voted Allen, would tell U he's better than a young Aaron Rogers too.....That's how crazy your answer is.

It’s actually much closer than some folks think.

 

Just look at their respective standard and advanced passing stats from 2019. It’ll surprise you.

47 minutes ago, Chemical said:

How’d Watson do in college in the playoffs? Wish there was some precedent we could look at. 

Oh, so are we awarding Super Bowl championships for college performance now? Good, let’s sign Tebow and we’ll finally have our Lombardi!!!!!

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Allen has a better line than Watson and it isn't even really close. Last year they both had poor lines. This year Buffalo's is somewhere around average and Houston's is still bottom 5 or 6. 

It’s pretty close in adjusted sack rate:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol/2019
 

Also, Allen and Watson have a similar scramble rate according to the advanced passing stats from PFR I posted yesterday 

[JoPoy88]

3 hours ago, Bill_with_it said:

Allen without a doubt. Somebody will literally have to break him to make him quit. He showed the grit on that qb sneak a couple of games ago that he  does not know the word quit. To me thats much more important than just about anything except pin point accuracy regarding the qb spot. 

are you saying Watson lacks this so-called “grit”? I’ll take Allen too today obviously, but i just love these amorphous traits that Allen has and the other guy, whoever it is, somehow lacks.

[BringBackOrton]

21 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

It’s actually much closer than some folks think.

 

Just look at their respective standard and advanced passing stats from 2019. It’ll surprise you.

Let’s do that:

 

TD%: Watson with 5.3 to 4.3, a full percentage better. INT% is 2.4 to 2.0.

 

Y/A: 7.7 vs 6.7, Watson. A full yard more per attempt.

 

1st downs: Watson with 191 compared to 146. That’s a difference of 45 1st downs!! And yes, Watson did have 34 more attempts but that’s still a large difference. Watson also had 62 more completions on the year.

 

On target%: Watson 9th in the NFL, Josh 21st.

 

Bad throw%: Josh with the 5th most, Watson with the 22nd most.

 

Batted balls: Josh with the 13th most balls batted at the line despite being 21st in attempts. Deshaun Watson was 24th despite being 16th in attempts.

 

Completed air yards per attempt: Watson 9th, Allen 14th.

 

It’s certainly close in the way the 15th best QB in the NFL is closer to the 6th than he is to the 32nd, but definitely not close in the sense that there are a lot of statistical categories that each QB beats the other in. 

Edited January 4, 2020 by BringBackOrton

[Bill_with_it]

1 hour ago, Chemical said:

Yeah you’re right I keep seeing Watson quit so I want Allen because he doesn’t do that. 
 

 

I never said watson quit. Has watson been in an obvious qb sneek and literally man handle two dts and a lb for a first down? Has watson hurdled a6’5” lb? Has watson stiff armed the absolute life out of a 250 lb mlb? Dont put words in my mouth..

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

10 minutes ago, Bill_with_it said:

I never said watson quit. Has watson been in an obvious qb sneek and literally man handle two dts and a lb for a first down? Has watson hurdled a6’5” lb? Has watson stiff armed the absolute life out of a 250 lb mlb? Dont put words in my mouth..

this is a thread comparing two players. You said you want one because he doesn’t quit. That implies the other does. Otherwise why say it? 

[Bill_with_it]

Just now, Chemical said:

this is a thread comparing two players. You said you want one because he doesn’t quit. That implies the other does. Otherwise why say it? 

No it doesnt, if that was my intent i would have said so. The only implication that was inferred from my statement is that Allen in my opinion (which i am allowed to have right?) has no quit in him and i would say more so than Watson. That isnt to say Watson is a quitter. I never used an absolute. Do I need to post more substantive evidence than I previously stated to further solidify my stance? I can.

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

42 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

.

Oh, so are we awarding Super Bowl championships for college performance now? Good, let’s sign Tebow and we’ll finally have our Lombardi!!!!!

 
 

No, but I’m not the one making assertions. I was responding to someone who said Watson might not be able to adjust to better defenses comparatively. His track record shows the complete opposite. 

1 minute ago, Bill_with_it said:

No it doesnt, if that was my intent i would have said so. The only implication that was inferred from my statement is that Allen in my opinion (which i am allowed to have right?) has no quit in him and i would say more so than Watson. That isnt to say Watson is a quitter. I never used an absolute. Do I need to post more substantive evidence than I previously stated to further solidify my stance? I can.

 Great. That part is your opinion which yes you are allowed to have of course no one ever said otherwise. (Do I need to say that before every post?)

 

but it’s not based in any reality. When has Watson shown less “no quit” than Allen. One example would be nice. Was it the second Alabama game or the time he came back from his rookie season ending injury to put up just as impressive numbers year two?

[JoPoy88]

12 minutes ago, Bill_with_it said:

No it doesnt, if that was my intent i would have said so. The only implication that was inferred from my statement is that Allen in my opinion (which i am allowed to have right?) has no quit in him and i would say more so than Watson. That isnt to say Watson is a quitter. I never used an absolute. Do I need to post more substantive evidence than I previously stated to further solidify my stance? I can.

please do

[thebandit27]

1 hour ago, BringBackOrton said:

Let’s do that:

 

TD%: Watson with 5.3 to 4.3, a full percentage better. INT% is 2.4 to 2.0.

 

Y/A: 7.7 vs 6.7, Watson. A full yard more per attempt.

 

1st downs: Watson with 191 compared to 146. That’s a difference of 45 1st downs!! And yes, Watson did have 34 more attempts but that’s still a large difference. Watson also had 62 more completions on the year.

 

On target%: Watson 9th in the NFL, Josh 21st.

 

Bad throw%: Josh with the 5th most, Watson with the 22nd most.

 

Batted balls: Josh with the 13th most balls batted at the line despite being 21st in attempts. Deshaun Watson was 24th despite being 16th in attempts.

 

Completed air yards per attempt: Watson 9th, Allen 14th.

 

It’s certainly close in the way the 15th best QB in the NFL is closer to the 6th than he is to the 32nd, but definitely not close in the sense that there are a lot of statistical categories that each QB beats the other in. 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing_advanced.htm

 

There’s a fair bit that you’re leaving out:

 

That apparently huge difference between 9 and 20 in on-target percentage amounts to 3%. Not exactly the chasm you’re implying.

 

Same goes for bad throw percentage; the difference is 4%.

 

The difference in CAY/PA is half a yard.

 

Now for the stuff that you didn’t mention:

 

Allen suffered a drop rate of 7.2%—highest in the NFL. Watson’s was 4.4%. WR play matters.
 

Both QBs faced the same number of hurried despite Watson having more attempts; Allen was also hit 4 more times. OL play matters.

 

Even though their respective efficiencies on RPOs are very similar, Josh had less than half of Watson’s combined run/pass attempts from RPO plays. Play calling matters.

I find it rather interesting that you left out a significant measure of context after calling me out for cherry picking/obfuscating (actually it was for being “strawmanny” earlier in this thread (and it was in a different thread).

46 minutes ago, Chemical said:

No, but I’m not the one making assertions. I was responding to someone who said Watson might not be able to adjust to better defenses comparatively. His track record shows the complete opposite. 

 Great. That part is your opinion which yes you are allowed to have of course no one ever said otherwise. (Do I need to say that before every post?)

 

but it’s not based in any reality. When has Watson shown less “no quit” than Allen. One example would be nice. Was it the second Alabama game or the time he came back from his rookie season ending injury to put up just as impressive numbers year two?

His NFL track record?

 

Not really. He has one playoff win over the Connor Cook lead Raiders.

 

I like Watson, but let’s be accurate.

Edited January 4, 2020 by thebandit27

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

8 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing_advanced.htm

 

There’s a fair bit that you’re leaving out:

 

That apparently huge difference between 9 and 20 in on-target percentage amounts to 3%. Not exactly the chasm you’re implying.

 

Same goes for bad throw percentage; the difference is 4%.

 

The difference in CAY/PA is half a yard.

 

Now for the stuff that you didn’t mention:

 

Allen suffered a drop rate of 7.2%—highest in the NFL. Watson’s was 4.4%. WR play matters.
 

Both QBs faced the same number of hurried despite Watson having more attempts; Allen was also hit 4 more times. OL play matters.

 

Even though their respective efficiencies on RPOs are very similar, Josh had less than half of Watson’s combined run/pass attempts from RPO plays. Play calling matters.

I find it rather interesting that you left out a significant measure of context after calling me out for cherry picking/obfuscating earlier in this thread.

His NFL track record?

 

Not really. He has one playoff win over the Connor Cook lead Raiders.

 

I like Watson, but let’s be accurate.

Ok if you’re enforcing an NFL only look at their development then the point is neutral at best and I could probably make a case for Watson (playing well against NE comes to mind). 
 

Edit: just looked up his numbers against the top defense this season. 234 yds 3TD 0INT 140rtg

 

again, I’m not the one trying to make a point, just countering someone saying he MIGHT not be able to rise to the occasion against better defenses. 

Edited January 4, 2020 by Chemical

[thebandit27]

3 minutes ago, Chemical said:

Ok if you’re enforcing an NFL only look at their development then the point is neutral at best and I could probably make a case for Watson (playing well against NE comes to mind). 

I guess I thought that was the point: that Allen and Watson has such markedly different college experiences that it’s not a valid comparison.

 

As for the case, I think I’ve been clear on my position: right now it’s Watson, but it’s a lot closer than some folks imply.

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

I guess I thought that was the point: that Allen and Watson has such markedly different college experiences that it’s not a valid comparison.

 

As for the case, I think I’ve been clear on my position: right now it’s Watson, but it’s a lot closer than some folks imply.

that’s fine, but I’m responding to someone throwing out wild speculation about a player with no basis. I’m trying to provide some reasons it is off base. Nothing more than that. 

[thebandit27]

7 minutes ago, Chemical said:

that’s fine, but I’m responding to someone throwing out wild speculation about a player with no basis. I’m trying to provide some reasons it is off base. Nothing more than that. 

Gah, ok, I misinterpreted it then.

[BringBackOrton]

54 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing_advanced.htm

 

There’s a fair bit that you’re leaving out:

 

That apparently huge difference between 9 and 20 in on-target percentage amounts to 3%. Not exactly the chasm you’re implying.

 

Same goes for bad throw percentage; the difference is 4%.

 

The difference in CAY/PA is half a yard.

 

Now for the stuff that you didn’t mention:

 

Allen suffered a drop rate of 7.2%—highest in the NFL. Watson’s was 4.4%. WR play matters.
 

Both QBs faced the same number of hurried despite Watson having more attempts; Allen was also hit 4 more times. OL play matters.

 

Even though their respective efficiencies on RPOs are very similar, Josh had less than half of Watson’s combined run/pass attempts from RPO plays. Play calling matters.

I find it rather interesting that you left out a significant measure of context after calling me out for cherry picking/obfuscating (actually it was for being “strawmanny” earlier in this thread (and it was in a different thread).

His NFL track record?

 

Not really. He has one playoff win over the Connor Cook lead Raiders.

 

I like Watson, but let’s be accurate.

Drop rate is excluded in on target throws. It’s the point of the stat. It’s also not taken to account in bad throw percentage.

 

A difference of 4% in bad throws is miniscule but a difference of 3% in drops is significant. Interesting.

 

That’s a new one, being accused of “cherry picking,” when I provided 7 stats.

 

None of the stats you provided demonstrated that Allen is better than or equal to Watson, rather that his supporting cast is better. Another interesting point.

 

Please demonstrate the advance stats that Allen beat Watson in. If they are “really close,” there has to be at least a few that Allen is better at, right? If a contest is 10 to 1, is it really close? Or 12 to 2?

Edited January 4, 2020 by BringBackOrton

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

It’s pretty close in adjusted sack rate:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol/2019
 

Also, Allen and Watson have a similar scramble rate according to the advanced passing stats from PFR I posted yesterday 

 

Pretty much supports what I said - Houston are bottom 6 and the Bills are about average. They are probably a couple of spots lower than I would have them on eye test but nothing there that significantly contradicts my view. 

36 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

His NFL track record?

 

Not really. He has one playoff win over the Connor Cook lead Raiders.

 

I like Watson, but let’s be accurate.

 

You might have been talking about BO'B here I am not sure but Watson wasn't yet drafted when they beat the Raiders. I think that was the Brocketship. 

[JaCrispy]

It’s game day!!! which, to me, is the Sabbath, or day of rest for debating the issues of our team and players...

 

Now, we must all come together as Bills fans....Let’s go Josh Allen!!! Let’s go Bills!!!??????

Edited January 4, 2020 by JaCrispy

[thebandit27]

3 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

Drop rate is excluded in on target throws. It’s the point of the stat.

True. Do you suppose that such a humongous drop rate might have a trickle-down effect on stats like YPA, TD %, INT%, and CAY/PA? That was more my point in citing that statistic.

[NewEra]

4 hours ago, Bill_with_it said:

Allen without a doubt. Somebody will literally have to break him to make him quit. He showed the grit on that qb sneak a couple of games ago that he  does not know the word quit. To me thats much more important than just about anything except pin point accuracy regarding the qb spot. 

He also showed that toughness on those 2 sailing bricks he threw to Knox in the end zone vs the pats.  I love JA, but that’s the reality of why everyone with working eyes would choose Watson over allen.  Nothing to be ashamed of, Watson is better than most imo

[BringBackOrton]

15 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

True. Do you suppose that such a humongous drop rate might have a trickle-down effect on stats like YPA, TD %, INT%, and CAY/PA? That was more my point in citing that statistic.

No. If a 4% bad throw rate isn’t significant, neither is a 3% difference in drop rate.