SI Predicts 2019 Records

[Doc]

5 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

In the 2017 offseason I was promoting the fact that they had a lot of older players on soon-expiring contracts and few large commitments down the road and would be able to retain anyone of their young core that they needed to.     It's not hard.......the cap is malleable if you have lot's of space down the road.........which they ALWAYS had.    

 

They chose to play "cash to the cap" because it suited the narrative that the roster needed to be dissected.    Donahoe did something similar...........he took advantage of the cap chaos to unnecessarily cut Ted Washington because he didn't fit GW's defense.    Then *miraculously* he had saved the Bills from their cap crisis and was back shopping in free agency the following offseason.   

 

If their jobs were on the line you could rest assured they would have been front loading deals to keep the roster from being depleted as it transitioned and the core of prime age players was getting paid.  

 

They inherited a talented but poorly coached roster that was ready to be a 10-11 win team by sheer force of talent.........they CHOSE to reset and clear the decks of the prime age talent so that they would have 3-5 years instead of being judged in 1-2 years like any coach/GM combo would be in a situation where they inherited talent and expectations.    You could argue that they didn't have the QB to lead them to a SB but having a perennial "divisional round ceiling" didn't stop KC and Houston from getting their franchise QB's of the future.  

 

And btw...........the dead money from Wood was due to an unnecessary extension that Beane gave him.     His deal was set to expire.   That was poorly played.   He wasn't going anywhere in FA.     And the Dareus dead money PLUS the "walking dead" money that they gave Star Lotulelei only massively compounded the stupid money spent on the DT1T position.    But the thing was that they were going to have TONS of cap room in 2019 and beyond all along.    Even if they kept Gilmore and Woods and Dareus and picked up Watkins option etc..  

 

And the way they've spent their money to this point is very dubious.   18 UFA's this offseason........many with concerning past health issues.   Hopefully it works out but the 2018 UFA class was basically an 0-9 in terms of return on investment.    There have been no Tyrod from Ravens or Lorax or Zach Brown type value signings since Beane arrived.  

 

The Bills had just $18M in actual cap room prior to the 2017 FA period (cash to cap was under Ralph).  And while the cap is malleable, they made a decision not to push money down the line so that they'd have a ton available in year 3 and beyond, after they'd had a few years to reshape the roster.  Which is exactly what happened.  And again, they made the playoffs that season so...

 

The UFA's of note they lost that off-season were Gilmore, Woods, Goodwin, Brown and Robey-Coleman.  None of them were "older" and since defense hasn't been a problem, the losses of Gilmore, Brown and NRC were moot.  They also dealt Sammy.  In hindsight paying Woods $6.8M/year would have been a good move.  Would he have made a 4-5 game impact on the Bills' record last year and pushed them into the playoffs?  Doubtful, but he'd have been one less piece to have to sign this past off-season, so there's that (but I remain unconvinced that his 2018 wasn't an extreme outlier for him).  And we've beaten the Sammy thing to death and the bottom line is he hasn't come anywhere close to justifying the money he's gotten and the Bills managed to get something for him and found someone younger and cheaper in Foster to be a decoy.

 

As for value signings under Beane, he's been GM for just 2 off-seasons.  I'd consider Foster and Wallace to be "value signings."  Gaines and Kevin Johnson could very well turn out to be "value signings" this year.  We'll see.

 

And last season was mostly tanked due to the offense, and in particular the OL.  The unexpected retirement of Wood (again hindsight WRT giving him an extension and him getting injured) and psychosis of Ritchie, and also having a raw rookie QB suddenly having to start. 

Edited July 21, 2019 by Doc

[stinky finger]

On 7/17/2019 at 5:45 PM, Devilmann said:

Let their contracts play out I think McBeane deserves that. What’s one year after dealing with all the other garbage gm and coaches that have been here. 

 

They'll see full term.... at least.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

 

The Bills had just $18M in actual cap room prior to the 2017 FA period (cash to cap was under Ralph).  And while the cap is malleable, they made a decision not to push money down the line so that they'd have a ton available in year 3 and beyond, after they'd had a few years to reshape the roster.  Which is exactly what happened.  And again, they made the playoffs that season so...

 

The UFA's of note they lost that off-season were Gilmore, Woods, Goodwin, Brown and Robey-Coleman.  None of them were "older" and since defense hasn't been a problem, the losses of Gilmore, Brown and NRC were moot.  They also dealt Sammy.  In hindsight paying Woods $6.8M/year would have been a good move.  Would he have made a 4-5 game impact on the Bills' record last year and pushed them into the playoffs?  Doubtful, but he'd have been one less piece to have to sign this past off-season, so there's that (but I remain unconvinced that his 2018 wasn't an extreme outlier for him).  And we've beaten the Sammy thing to death and the bottom line is he hasn't come anywhere close to justifying the money he's gotten and the Bills managed to get something for him and found someone younger and cheaper in Foster to be a decoy.

 

As for value signings under Beane, he's been GM for just 2 off-seasons.  I'd consider Foster and Wallace to be "value signings."  Gaines and Kevin Johnson could very well turn out to be "value signings" this year.  We'll see.

 

And last season was mostly tanked due to the offense, and in particular the OL.  The unexpected retirement of Wood (again hindsight WRT giving him an extension and him getting injured) and psychosis of Ritchie, and also having a raw rookie QB suddenly having to start. 

 

 

1) The bolded is all you need to say.   It was a choice.    They had well over $100M in uncommitted salary cap space for 2019 heading into the 2017 offseason.   They could have pushed and adjusted anything they needed to to keep long term contract guys like Gilmore and Woods and whoever.    If you need me to explain how then you haven't been paying much attention to the NFL.   Signing bonuses and amortization are nice tools but guaranteed dollars come in many malleable forms.    

 

They CHOSE not to spend then.     It was a choice.    They didn't have to stand pat in UFA or trade their existing prime young talent........but they did.    Just like they didn't have to sign Wood to an ill-fated extension or guarantee Star Lotulelei $25M+ or give Corey Coleman $3.5M for a 10 day try-out.  

 

2) The UFA's they lost were mostly prime aged players as I've said.   You think losing defensive players like Gilmore or Brown was entirely moot because the defense isn't bad............well they have since spent 3 of their 4 first round picks on defense now haven't they?    One was a boundary CB the other was a MLB.   Hmmm.   I guess you don't value draft picks but I'll take Gilmore(1st team All Pro) and Mahomes(50 TD passes 2nd most all time) over Tre White and Tre Edmunds.   So would every non-Bills NFL fan or observer.  Choices were made not forced upon them.

 

3) UFA's aren't in the pro personnel tally..........they are part of your draft work.   And as much as I like a lot of the players they have drafted it's not uncommon for drafts to look promising in the first 2-3 seasons and then fall apart.    Tre White and Matt Milano are pretty much the only McDermott draft picks we aren't still grading on a curve right now.   Zay Jones and Dion Dawkins and Tre Edmunds and Josh Allen's 2018 play won't be too appealing if repeated this year.........it will be grounds for necessary replacement.    I hope Gaines and Johnson pan out but there were talent evaluators that thought those two contracts the Bills gave two busted up vets were very generous under the circumstance...........so it could just end up being more of the same as the 2018 UFA class.    That class was 0-9.   All duds for the dollars.  Trent Murphy is the only hope for that group.   

 

    

Edited July 21, 2019 by BADOLBILZ

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

1) The bolded is all you need to say.   It was a choice.    They had well over $100M in uncommitted salary cap space for 2019 heading into the 2017 offseason.   They could have pushed and adjusted anything they needed to to keep long term contract guys like Gilmore and Woods and whoever.    If you need me to explain how then you haven't been paying much attention to the NFL.   Signing bonuses and amortization are nice tools but guaranteed dollars come in many malleable forms.    

 

They CHOSE not to spend then.     It was a choice.    They didn't have to stand pat in UFA or trade their existing prime young talent........but they did.    Just like they didn't have to sign Wood to an ill-fated extension or guarantee Star Lotulelei $25M+ or give Corey Coleman $3.5M for a 10 day try-out.  

 

2) The UFA's they lost were mostly prime aged players as I've said.   You think losing defensive players like Gilmore or Brown was entirely moot because the defense isn't bad............well they have since spent 3 of their 4 first round picks on defense now haven't they?    One was a boundary CB the other was a MLB.   Hmmm.   I guess you don't value draft picks but I'll take Gilmore(1st team All Pro) and Mahomes(50 TD passes 2nd most all time) over Tre White and Tre Edmunds.   So would every non-Bills NFL fan or observer.  Choices were made not forced upon them.

 

3) UFA's aren't in the pro personnel tally..........they are part of your draft work.   And as much as I like a lot of the players they have drafted it's not uncommon for drafts to look promising in the first 2-3 seasons and then fall apart.    Tre White and Matt Milano are pretty much the only McDermott draft picks we aren't still grading on a curve right now.   Zay Jones and Dion Dawkins and Tre Edmunds and Josh Allen's 2018 play won't be too appealing if repeated this year.........it will be grounds for necessary replacement.    I hope Gaines and Johnson pan out but there were talent evaluators that thought those two contracts the Bills gave two busted up vets were very generous under the circumstance...........so it could just end up being more of the same as the 2018 UFA class.    That class was 0-9.   All duds for the dollars.  Trent Murphy is the only hope for that group.   

 

    

 

Agreed. This is the part where the personal insults usually start flying.

 

Or the "hindsight" defense.

 

Or "Sorry Beane didn't do exactly what YOU wanted him to do"

 

What people who say these things don't understand is being critical of a GM or coach doesn't just happen due to some irrational hatred of the guy or organization.

 

Edited July 22, 2019 by Chemical

[Doc]

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

1) The bolded is all you need to say.   It was a choice.    They had well over $100M in uncommitted salary cap space for 2019 heading into the 2017 offseason.   They could have pushed and adjusted anything they needed to to keep long term contract guys like Gilmore and Woods and whoever.    If you need me to explain how then you haven't been paying much attention to the NFL.   Signing bonuses and amortization are nice tools but guaranteed dollars come in many malleable forms.    

 

They CHOSE not to spend then.     It was a choice.    They didn't have to stand pat in UFA or trade their existing prime young talent........but they did.    Just like they didn't have to sign Wood to an ill-fated extension or guarantee Star Lotulelei $25M+ or give Corey Coleman $3.5M for a 10 day try-out.  

 

2) The UFA's they lost were mostly prime aged players as I've said.   You think losing defensive players like Gilmore or Brown was entirely moot because the defense isn't bad............well they have since spent 3 of their 4 first round picks on defense now haven't they?    One was a boundary CB the other was a MLB.   Hmmm.   I guess you don't value draft picks but I'll take Gilmore(1st team All Pro) and Mahomes(50 TD passes 2nd most all time) over Tre White and Tre Edmunds.   So would every non-Bills NFL fan or observer.  Choices were made not forced upon them.

 

3) UFA's aren't in the pro personnel tally..........they are part of your draft work.   And as much as I like a lot of the players they have drafted it's not uncommon for drafts to look promising in the first 2-3 seasons and then fall apart.    Tre White and Matt Milano are pretty much the only McDermott draft picks we aren't still grading on a curve right now.   Zay Jones and Dion Dawkins and Tre Edmunds and Josh Allen's 2018 play won't be too appealing if repeated this year.........it will be grounds for necessary replacement.    I hope Gaines and Johnson pan out but there were talent evaluators that thought those two contracts the Bills gave two busted up vets were very generous under the circumstance...........so it could just end up being more of the same as the 2018 UFA class.    That class was 0-9.   All duds for the dollars.  Trent Murphy is the only hope for that group.  

 

The "prime young talent" to which you refer is overblown.  Sammy hasn't cracked 600 yards since he left Buffalo and is basically just a decoy at $17M/year.  They made the right decision trading him and Foster can replicate what he can do at a fraction of the price.  Gilmore never even sniffed a Pro Bowl in his 5 years in Buffalo and is only an All-Pro because he plays under Belicheat (Malcolm Butler anyone?).  I'd take White at 1/5 the salary anyday.  And Dareus' play slipped last year as the Jags' run defense was middle of the pack and actually worse in YPR than the Bills' was.  As for Woods, no one would have considered him a "prime talent" after the 2017 season.  If he can continue producing at his 2018 level, he might be considered one but I'm sure McVay was surprised at his 2018 season.  None of the moves you've advocated would have changed much WRT either 2017 or 2018.

 

As for Mahomes, I don't recall you saying anything about him prior to the draft.  And most had concerns about him otherwise he wouldn't have made it out of the top-3.  It's just more hindsight like the "Wood extension."  It would have been interesting to see him play on the Bills' offense last year though. 

 

But we can play "what if" all day.  They did what they set out to do: rebuild the roster with their guys, clear cap space and get what they feel is their franchise QB.  And they killed the drought during the rebuild.  We'll see how it all plays out.

Edited July 22, 2019 by Doc

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

 

The "prime young talent" to which you refer is overblown.  Sammy hasn't cracked 600 yards since he left Buffalo and is basically just a decoy at $17M/year.  They made the right decision trading him and Foster can replicate what he can do at a fraction of the price.  Gilmore never even sniffed a Pro Bowl in his 5 years in Buffalo and is only an All-Pro because he plays under Belicheat (Malcolm Butler anyone?).  I'd take White at 1/5 the salary anyday.  And Dareus' play slipped last year as the Jags' run defense was middle of the pack and actually worse in YPR than the Bills' was.  As for Woods, no one would have considered him a "prime talent" after the 2017 season.  If he can continue producing at his 2018 level, he might be considered one but I'm sure McVay was surprised at his 2018 season.  None of the moves you've advocated would have changed much WRT either 2017 or 2018.

 

As for Mahomes, I don't recall you saying anything about him prior to the draft.  And most had concerns about him otherwise he wouldn't have made it out of the top-3.  It's just more hindsight like the "Wood extension."  It would have been interesting to see him play on the Bills' offense last year though. 

 

But we can play "what if" all day.  They did what they set out to do: rebuild the roster with their guys, clear cap space and get what they feel is their franchise QB.  And they killed the drought during the rebuild.  We'll see how it all plays out.

 

 

What I can tell you is that Gilmore was a 1st team All Pro last year..........and Bob Woods had over 1200 yards receiving...........Watkins lined up across from Gilmore in the AFC Championship game.   He is a proven difference maker when healthy.  If they weren't going to do that here under McDermott and Beane then that's an indictment of them not a defense.

 

Those players are all good and cost the Bills a bunch of draft capital to draft.    Re-sign them all..........2 out of 3 stay healthy......you won that deal.    And Star Lotulelei was a terrible signing..........it was a favorite as THE WORST signing by NFL observers that offseason and it only worsened when he somehow had by far the least productive season of his career.   It's almost unfathomable that they ate Dareus dead money and then guaranteed $25M to a traffic cone.  

 

All this said..........you have to be making bad decisions all the time to become or stay bad in the NFL.   It's set up to help even bad organizations remain competitive.    We shouldn't have to pretend that what McBeane have done is some kind of slam dunk.   All they've done is maintain their mediocre status...........it can still go either way but the mistakes are mounting.   They need their draft picks to step up past the stage where they needed to be graded on a curve and their UFA's to actually start panning out.   The team and staff is practically entirely hand picked.   The excuses stop here in 2019.   

[Hapless Bills Fan]

16 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

1) The bolded is all you need to say.   It was a choice.    They had well over $100M in uncommitted salary cap space for 2019 heading into the 2017 offseason.   They could have pushed and adjusted anything they needed to to keep long term contract guys like Gilmore and Woods and whoever.    If you need me to explain how then you haven't been paying much attention to the NFL.   Signing bonuses and amortization are nice tools but guaranteed dollars come in many malleable forms.    

 

They CHOSE not to spend then.     It was a choice.    They didn't have to stand pat in UFA or trade their existing prime young talent........but they did.    Just like they didn't have to sign Wood to an ill-fated extension or guarantee Star Lotulelei $25M+ or give Corey Coleman $3.5M for a 10 day try-out.  

 

2) The UFA's they lost were mostly prime aged players as I've said.   You think losing defensive players like Gilmore or Brown was entirely moot because the defense isn't bad............well they have since spent 3 of their 4 first round picks on defense now haven't they?    One was a boundary CB the other was a MLB.   Hmmm.   I guess you don't value draft picks but I'll take Gilmore(1st team All Pro) and Mahomes(50 TD passes 2nd most all time) over Tre White and Tre Edmunds.   So would every non-Bills NFL fan or observer.  Choices were made not forced upon them.

 

3) UFA's aren't in the pro personnel tally..........they are part of your draft work.   And as much as I like a lot of the players they have drafted it's not uncommon for drafts to look promising in the first 2-3 seasons and then fall apart.    Tre White and Matt Milano are pretty much the only McDermott draft picks we aren't still grading on a curve right now.   Zay Jones and Dion Dawkins and Tre Edmunds and Josh Allen's 2018 play won't be too appealing if repeated this year.........it will be grounds for necessary replacement.    I hope Gaines and Johnson pan out but there were talent evaluators that thought those two contracts the Bills gave two busted up vets were very generous under the circumstance...........so it could just end up being more of the same as the 2018 UFA class.    That class was 0-9.   All duds for the dollars.  Trent Murphy is the only hope for that group.    

 

I did my own cap assessment and basically came to the same conclusion as BadOl in 2017

McDermott and Beane chose to handle the cap situation the way they did, which created a "tight cap" situation last year.  The narrative that they inherited a talent-depleted roster that lacked cap space to re-sign the talent they had, is just not right. 

I'm not saying what they did is wrong.  It's a truism that you can't institute change - cultural change, attitude change, whatever - by keeping things the same.

But it clearly wasn't their only choice.  It was a choice. 

And it's a fact that by painting the roster as a "cupboard bare, must strip and rebuild" scenario they've bought themselves more time in the eyes of the fans (and perhaps owners) than if they kept to the "we're not as far off as people think" of Nix or "we're close" of Whaley.

I want to be Hopeful, truly I do.  But a number of the choices they've made are puzzling indeed to me, and their choices/management at QB, WR, and OL lead the way in puzzlement.
 

[PromoTheRobot]

On 7/21/2019 at 9:27 AM, Rocket94 said:

If moving Edmunds outside were to happen, who is ready to step up in the middle? This remains to be seen.

 

Edmunds is the MLB. He's not moving anywhere.

[LSHMEAB]

On 7/21/2019 at 7:27 AM, Rocket94 said:

If moving Edmunds outside were to happen, who is ready to step up in the middle? This remains to be seen.

Nobody. It's not going to happen this year. They committed to Edmunds in the middle. I would have liked to see them bring in a vet MLB. You can find "reliable" middle linebackers pretty easily. They're clearly all in. 

 

Edit; Maybe Bynes.

Edited July 22, 2019 by LSHMEAB

[Rocket94]

1 hour ago, LSHMEAB said:

Nobody. It's not going to happen this year. They committed to Edmunds in the middle. I would have liked to see them bring in a vet MLB. You can find "reliable" middle linebackers pretty easily. They're clearly all in. 

 

Edit; Maybe Bynes.

Yeah...you are absolutely right. I think the fact that we discussed it before had me believing that it was a possibility. I am anxious to see if Edmunds steps it up this year. He is 21 with tons of ability. Yeah...there are always professional linebackers around. Two more in camp today. Of the two, Bynes is an intriguing player. Not the greatest skill set but intelligent and instinctual. 

Edited July 23, 2019 by Rocket94