The myth of the sophomore QB slump

[Buffalo716]

11 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...850 yards rushing means he's heading for a gurney sooner than later........need a long term franchise solution at QB and not a quick injury exit.....850 is absurd.....

That's realistically what he was on pace for.

 

Correlating stays doesn't always work but I would wager he's closer to 800 than 300

 

He WAS drafted in part because his dual threat abilities

 

Shelving his running game would not be good for him. I never said run 15 times a game

 

I said 6-7 well timed scrambles which is not unheard of or crazy.

 

He got hurt last year in the pocket not outside it. TT was 190 pounds that's why he couldn't scramble

 

Cam gets designed QB runs up the gut. That's why he's been hurt

 

Allen just needs to take off in man coverage 5-7 times a game and he will get 10 yards easily then get down

 

Hes so deadly outside the pocket in the scramble drill where WRs turn and burn deep and a RB flares across the middle

 

He is going to make a living outside the pocket and that doenst mean he hasn't progressed or can't throw from inside it

 

It just means he's deadly outside it

[K-9]

13 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

That's realistically what he was on pace for.

 

Correlating stays doesn't always work but I would wager he's closer to 800 than 300

 

He WAS drafted in part because his dual threat abilities

 

Shelving his running game would not be good for him. I never said run 15 times a game

 

I said 6-7 well timed scrambles which is not unheard of or crazy.

 

He got hurt last year in the pocket not outside it. TT was 190 pounds that's why he couldn't scramble

 

Cam gets designed QB runs up the gut. That's why he's been hurt

 

Allen just needs to take off in man coverage 5-7 times a game and he will get 10 yards easily then get down

 

Hes so deadly outside the pocket in the scramble drill where WRs turn and burn deep and a RB flares across the middle

 

He is going to make a living outside the pocket and that doenst mean he hasn't progressed or can't throw from inside it

 

It just means he's deadly outside it

Per the bold, good point. I wonder how often teams are gonna turn their back on him. He killed teams on scrambles vs. man coverage last year. Especially after he came back from injury. And I think that was with Dabolls’s blessing, too. Our sieve of an OL got him beat up before his injury and I think Daboll told him if it breaks down early, GTF out of there and go. And our added speed at wideout is gonna give defenses more to think about in terms of man to man coverage as well.

[Buffalo716]

1 minute ago, K-9 said:

Per the bold, good point. I wonder how often teams are gonna turn their back on him. He killed teams on scrambles vs. man coverage last year. Especially after he came back from injury. And I think that was with Dabolls’s blessing, too. Our sieve of an OL got him beat up before his injury and I think Daboll told him if it breaks down early, GTF out of there and go. And our added speed at wideout is gonna give defenses more to think about in terms of man to man coverage as well.

Ive been a player , scout , coach my whole life and never made it to the league and I can figure that out

 

Id like to think NFL D coordinators would realize that man vs Josh is poison but they like to outsmart themselves

 

He will probably see a good amount of it and if he starts torching teams again on the ground they will not collapse the pocket and contain him. Play a spy

 

That was the TT strategy that he couldn't beat, because he is so conservative throwing

 

If you throw that at Josh I don't believe he will be scared to throw into man coverage downfield and the spy will just mean 1 less rusher or person in coverage

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

25 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

That's realistically what he was on pace for.

 

Correlating stays doesn't always work but I would wager he's closer to 800 than 300

 

He WAS drafted in part because his dual threat abilities

 

Shelving his running game would not be good for him. I never said run 15 times a game

 

I said 6-7 well timed scrambles which is not unheard of or crazy.

 

He got hurt last year in the pocket not outside it. TT was 190 pounds that's why he couldn't scramble

 

Cam gets designed QB runs up the gut. That's why he's been hurt

 

Allen just needs to take off in man coverage 5-7 times a game and he will get 10 yards easily then get down

 

Hes so deadly outside the pocket in the scramble drill where WRs turn and burn deep and a RB flares across the middle

 

He is going to make a living outside the pocket and that doenst mean he hasn't progressed or can't throw from inside it

 

It just means he's deadly outside it

 

..if, IF we want him as our long term guy, he needs to temper his tendencies and be more selective....850 yards rushing is NOT a viable "long term health plan"......Brady has miraculously steered clear of QB headhunters for YEARS.....no need for Josh to test their mettle.....

[Buffalo716]

2 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

..if, IF we want him as our long term guy, he needs to temper his tendencies and be more selective....850 yards rushing is NOT a viable "long term health plan"......Brady has miraculously steered clear of QB headhunters for YEARS.....no need for Josh to test their mettle.....

Josh isn't Tom and will never be Tom.

 

There will NEVER be another Tom Brady again. A guy who dinks and dunks his way 80 yards down the field

 

The league IS going to mobile QBs 

 

Drafting Allen and not letting him use his legs when he's young and strong would be a mistake because it's his biggest asset

 

He is not a classic drop back passer and never will be and that doesn't mean he can't be amazing

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

5 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Josh isn't Tom and will never be Tom.

 

There will NEVER be another Tom Brady again. A guy who dinks and dunks his way 80 yards down the field

 

The league IS going to mobile QBs 

 

Drafting Allen and not letting him use his legs when he's young and strong would be a mistake because it's his biggest asset

 

He is not a classic drop back passer and never will be and that doesn't mean he can't be amazing

 

..I'm thinking we are in agreement as far as Allen's amazing skill set, particularly uncanny agility for a kid of his size.......carpe diem bro......where we may differ is how often and to what extent we call upon those attributes.....you say 850 yards rushing.....I'm thinking 450 and tack the 400 yd shortfall onto his arm...just a thought......

[Buffalo716]

9 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

..I'm thinking we are in agreement as far as Allen's amazing skill set, particularly uncanny agility for a kid of his size.......carpe diem bro......where we may differ is how often and to what extent we call upon those attributes.....you say 850 yards rushing.....I'm thinking 450 and tack the 400 yd shortfall onto his arm...just a thought......

I said 6-7 well timed rushes a game which is not alot

 

7 yards a rush would he 800 yards

 

A well timed run vs man coverage is not risky with linebackers and DBs running in man. He can get his yards and get down

 

Cam Newton has only missed 4 games in his career. 2 in 2 different seasons

 

Again I'm not saying this is sustainable yearly. Let him run 6-7 times for a few years. At 28 not so much

Edited June 28, 2019 by Buffalo716

[K-9]

26 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Ive been a player , scout , coach my whole life and never made it to the league and I can figure that out

 

Id like to think NFL D coordinators would realize that man vs Josh is poison but they like to outsmart themselves

 

He will probably see a good amount of it and if he starts torching teams again on the ground they will not collapse the pocket and contain him. Play a spy

 

That was the TT strategy that he couldn't beat, because he is so conservative throwing

 

If you throw that at Josh I don't believe he will be scared to throw into man coverage downfield and the spy will just mean 1 less rusher or person in coverage

Absolutely. Josh’s running threat is gonna force teams to counter and leave something else vulnerable in the process. The old take what they give until they adjust and then start taking what you want. And we both know Allen isn’t gun shy like the aforementioned timid one. 

[JESSEFEFFER]

I can only think of two hits Josh took on a scramble run that gave me any concern.  He did take on some tacklers on a naked bootleg where his legs buckled (home game scoreboard endzone-late 4th quarter-- Jacksonville?)   I can think of many more he took from inside the pocket that were more worrisome including the helmet to his elbow at Houston that cost him 4 games.   Defenders will take shots at him as he continues to frustrate them.

[row_33]

23 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

..I'm thinking we are in agreement as far as Allen's amazing skill set, particularly uncanny agility for a kid of his size.......carpe diem bro......where we may differ is how often and to what extent we call upon those attributes.....you say 850 yards rushing.....I'm thinking 450 and tack the 400 yd shortfall onto his arm...just a thought......

 

he should be learning to stay in the pocket a little longer this year, you are going to have to get used to getting hit while being back there

 

it might look worse coming in just after an all-time panic-stricken-run-for-your-life QB at the helm in Tyrod

 

 

 

 

 

[BillsWilson]

23 hours ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

I originally did this in consideration of the 6.5 over/under line for the Bills season but it also illustrates an important idea opposed to the myth to which you refer.  Big changes in win totals for teams having a starting QB  going into year 2 on their rookie deal are trending.  The basic thinking would be:

 

1) Rookie QBs are not fully equipped to win in year 1 and their team's record will suffer fot it.  The highly drafted QBs almost always play in year 1 but teams do not fully prepare them to do so.  It's like they are afraid to let the veterans on the team see the starting job handed to a rookie without them "earning" it, therefore the foolish effort to give the Petermans and McCarron's of the NFL the bulk of the reps.

 

2) QBs usually have multiple advantages going into year 2 as the starter that were not available to them in year 1 and they should be noticeably improved.  The entire offseason, usually within the same offense as year 1, gives them many additional months to hone their craft.

 

3) Their relatively low salary cap numbers are compatible with building the roster around them. 

 

Year 2 improvement is almost a certainty for both the QB and the team.  Teams having a sub .500 record where a rookie played at least 8 games went  12 of 14 at improving their year 2 record at least 1 game.  That elminates Mahomes, Luck, Dalton, Bridgewater and Griffen from consideration.  Glennon and Gabbert were the only over/under "losers."  That's 8 of 14 (excluding EJ) with at least a 3 game improvement and 7 of 14 with a 4 or more win improvement.  So screw the sophomore jinx crap and dare to think big.  A 4 game improvement gets the Bills in the playoffs and 5 or more threatens the Patriots for the divison.  These kinds of improvements have been happening almost every year since the current CBA was in place.  Why not the Bills in 2019?

 

QB	Drafted #	Team	Year 1	Wins	Year 2	Wins	Δ
Goff	1	Rams	2016	4	2017	11	7
Trubisky	2	Bears	2017	5	2018	12	7
Watson	12	Texans	2017	4	2018	11	7
Ponder	12	Vikings	2011	3	2012	10	7
Wentz	2	Eagles	2016	7	2017	13	6
Mariotta	2	Titans	2015	3	2016	9	6
Carr	36	Raiders	2014	3	2015	7	4
Winston	1	Buccaneers	2015	6	2016	9	3
Manuel	16	Bills	2013	6	2014	9	3
Mahomes	10	Chiefs	2017	10	2018	12	2
Bortles	3	Jaguars	2014	3	2015	5	2
Tannehill	8	Dolphins	2012	7	2013	8	1
Newton	1	Panthers	2011	6	2012	7	1
Dalton	35	Bengals	2011	9	2012	10	1
Luck	1	Colts	2012	11	2013	11	0
Mayfield	1	Browns	2018	7	2019	?	0
Darnold	3	Jets	2018	4	2019	?	0
Allen	7	Bills	2018	6	2019	?	0
Rosen	10	Cardinals	2018	3	2019	?	0
Jackson	32	Ravens	2018	10	2019	?	0
Glennon	73	Buccaneers	2013	4	2014	2	-2
Bridgewater	32	Vikings	2014	11	2015	8	-3
Gabbert	10	Jaguars	2011	5	2012	2	-3
Smith	39	Jets	2013	8	2014	4	-4
Griffen	2	Redskins	2012	10	2013	3	-7

 

Notes:

Watson only started 6 games his rookie year.

Jackson 7 games.

Kizer got traded to the Packers after year 1 so he is irrelevant to the discussion.

 

If you see any other inconsistencies/mistakes I will edit this post accordingly.

Mahomes played 1 game in 2017.  He shouldn't be on this list.

[JESSEFEFFER]

48 minutes ago, BillsWilson said:

Mahomes played 1 game in 2017.  He shouldn't be on this list.

And he wasn't because he did not fit the profile.  He was not 1 of the 14 considered because the Chiefs were not sub .500 in 2017 and he did not play enough games that year.  I included all the higher drafted QBs since the CBA began in 2011 for completeness but found only 14 of them meeting the criteria I laid out in the post for purposes of the over/under 6.5 wins betting line.  I went back and bolded the 14 names that fit the criteria.

Edited June 28, 2019 by JESSEFEFFER

[Punching Bag]

20 hours ago, Gugny said:

 

If he has 850 yards rushing, I don't think that will mean he's improved.

 

If he has 850 yards rushing because teams are double covering 2 WRs and there are a lot of underneath safe yards it is okay as long he understands that there may be players who take cheap shots he was to watch out for.

15 hours ago, K-9 said:

Per the bold, good point. I wonder how often teams are gonna turn their back on him. He killed teams on scrambles vs. man coverage last year. Especially after he came back from injury. And I think that was with Dabolls’s blessing, too. Our sieve of an OL got him beat up before his injury and I think Daboll told him if it breaks down early, GTF out of there and go. And our added speed at wideout is gonna give defenses more to think about in terms of man to man coverage as well.

 

That means defenses will be limited on what he can do which is a good thing if they are unwilling to turn their backs on him.

[Punching Bag]

15 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

..if, IF we want him as our long term guy, he needs to temper his tendencies and be more selective....850 yards rushing is NOT a viable "long term health plan"......Brady has miraculously steered clear of QB headhunters for YEARS.....no need for Josh to test their mettle.....

 

Yes he has because he has got powder puff treatment by Zebras and it is unlikely he will get same treatment inside the pocket.

 

In fact I'd like on running plays he used Zebras as picks and if some get run over by defenders even the better.

15 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

That was the TT strategy that he couldn't beat, because he is so conservative throwing

 

TT was not timid in beginning and often you see this with young QBs - they become timid because coaches get too cautious.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

The one thing that may slow down Allen's development is all the churn on the O-line.  Likely during camp will different players going ion and out, then even once the line is set will take some time to jell.  The 2 things that will help some are the most experienced guy is their center so he may help settle things down and excluding Ford, the rest are vets with quite few years under their belt.  But still overall, may take some time and that could hurt Allen some the first few games.

[row_33]

3 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

The one thing that may slow down Allen's development is all the churn on the O-line.  Likely during camp will different players going ion and out, then even once the line is set will take some time to jell.  The 2 things that will help some are the most experienced guy is their center so he may help settle things down and excluding Ford, the rest are vets with quite few years under their belt.  But still overall, may take some time and that could hurt Allen some the first few games.

 

you need a team to be good to get anywhere

 

but many great QBs had NOTHING to help them out for years in their career, so this excuse gets thin quick

 

 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

3 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

The one thing that may slow down Allen's development is all the churn on the O-line.  Likely during camp will different players going ion and out, then even once the line is set will take some time to jell.  The 2 things that will help some are the most experienced guy is their center so he may help settle things down and excluding Ford, the rest are vets with quite few years under their belt.  But still overall, may take some time and that could hurt Allen some the first few games.

 

 

...."in and out" is a tough strategy on the OL...they need to jell as a complete unit.....although I don't like it, the ONLY way it could remotely work is if you had "A" Duo-left side PAIR with "B" Duo-Left side PAIR as backup(left because of Allen's blind side)....historically and from a HOF perspective, we talk about Hutch/Jones or Shell/Upshaw are legendary pairs...I'm NOT discounting the relevance or importance of the right side, but just my opinion that the blind side takes precedent.....

[LSHMEAB]

Christian Ponder won 10 games? That CAN'T be right.

 

What this chart demonstrates is that if a quarterback is going to be a franchise guy, he's probably going to start playing well in his second season. I'll grant that Allen is "raw" and the offensive personnel is still subpar, but I expect to see marked improvement across the board if he's the guy. 

 

There have been exceptions to this rule; Drew Brees comes to mind. But GENERALLY, a franchise QB is going to look like one at a young age.

[machine gun kelly]

716 and Jeff, well written and researched takes so thanks.  I couldn’t agree more with a second year, more comfortability with two of the WR in Foster and Jones, Plus al of the other pieces, including beyond offense, Oliver wreaking havoc on the interior of opposing QB’s, should give us shorter fields on average ( a boy can dream Oliver or Hughes sacking Brady three times in the first half. In September).

 

i don’t remember if Allen went to a school that  wouldn’t let their players go to minicamps until after the semester or not.  This is going to be a fun year.

 

Im the eternal optimist as many of you have said to me, and still wanting to see 10-6, and one playoff win.  That would be a great year while Father Time keeps ticking away at Brady.  Lastly, we have an extra $22 mil in cap space, and with likely cuts will climb to $33 mil, plus another $10 mil cap increase, to extend the one year prove it deals we made this year in free agency.  The future looks bright. 500 -700 rushing yards from Allen and 3500 yards passing is conceivable.

 

Have a great Sunday as we all wait for training camp and jealous I can’t be with you at the open practices.  

[Boca BIlls]

On 6/28/2019 at 4:36 PM, row_33 said:

 

he should be learning to stay in the pocket a little longer this year, you are going to have to get used to getting hit while being back there

 

it might look worse coming in just after an all-time panic-stricken-run-for-your-life QB at the helm in Tyrod

 

 

 

 

 

He doesn't have to learn it. You saw last year he stayed in the pocket as long as the poor guy could. Time he took bad hits was him sitting there trying to find a guy open. Crazy his two worst hits camen in the pocket, were both completions. The one in Houston that took him out of the game, and the one I thought he was going to get killed in the Jags game when he threw the amazing TD pass to Foster.

Edited June 30, 2019 by Boca BIlls