shrader Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 36 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said: https://wgr550.radio.com/articles/opinion/sabres-still-paying-sins-tim-murray ”Sabres still playing for the sins of Tim Murray”: He goes into all the details in the article (players traded away and how they are doing elsewhere, players available at the draft picks that were traded away, etc). It’s worth a read. But it’s not just on Murray by any means. This team has been mismanaged for years. I would also say that we are still paying for the sins of Darcy Regier. His drafting was hit and miss, he overvalued his own guys, and after his failed big free agent spending spree he sold Pegula on the full on (embarrassing) tank job, the “suffering” and “5 year rebuild” in an attempt to prolong his own years on the job. Not that I disagree with the plan of drafting high for a couple/few years, I just disagree with the way it was executed. And the Pegulas deserve their share of the blame in all of this as well. Hopefully Botterill gets it right because we can’t afford too many more setbacks... Scrolling through the players, Compher is really the only one that could be a very nice help. Still, looking through all of that, I still make that O'Reilly deal in a heartbeat. The rest of the list does a nice job of condemning the end of the Regier tenure as you suggest. They didn't really give away all that much in those deals. But at the same time, I think the Regier approach would have served us much better through the tank than Murray's. Darcy was at least loading up on assets while Murray was overspending all of those assets. The drafting portion of that analysis really starts to lose me, epecially when they start out by saying with the 60th pick they could have taken someone who went 19 picks later. Ok, sure, they may have lucked out and made that right pick, but they also could have taken any of the 18 other guys who went within that window. That's far more likely than landing on the one guy in the entire wide range who has thus far amounted to anything. The "what if we picked this guy instead" argument is always too loaded with hindsight. Hell, since the team selected Brycen Martin at 74, I have a hard time believing they would have taken Point at 60th. He offers these arguments in the story, so I'll give him credit for that, but it still always bugs me. Sure, they would have had a few more bodies to work with, but looking over the rest of the picks they did wind up making over that time, I don't feel too confident that they would have made the right one. Let's not ignore that side of the equation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 6 hours ago, zow2 said: After the season, find a new coach..and get a better goaltender too. Our goalies get outplayed by the opponents goalie way too often. I have some hope for Linus that he will improve in the future. Yes, defense too...but they will have to get a new coach to get the D corrected I think. So, basically what you're saying is the team isn't good enough? LOL.... You left out the forwards. We probably need some of them as well, especially a second line center and a few wingers that can score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 1 hour ago, JohnC said: There are numerous issues that collectively add up and factor in why this team has struggled. Not being attentive to one's defensive responsibility all the way through the lines and defenders certainly is a persistent problem. If a player is deficient from a mental standpoint, regardless of the physical talent, then that player is simply deficient. There is just too much of that clueless losing sight of the player you should be responsible for. Risto is in a different category than Scandella. Risto is the first defender on a top pairing that includes the most ice time. Scandella is a third pairing backer who can easily be rotated out or given very limited minutes. You shouldn't have to do that with your first pairing defender who repeatedly has lapses. I don't want to get fixated on one player because there are so many players and issues that need to be addressed. Okposo is a high character player whose salary is dramatically higher than his contribution. We can go on and on. This season still has some time on it but it is not a major leap to believe that this roster is going to be significantly altered next year. Agreed. There are multiple issues with this team, from management to coaches to players. And we are several seasons away, AT A MINIMUM, before we are a contender because you just can't fix that many multiple issues in a shorter period of time. It's not going to happen. We have regressed as this season has progressed. And what passes for "progress" for some is a mirage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boca BIlls Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, K-9 said: Agreed. There are multiple issues with this team, from management to coaches to players. And we are several seasons away, AT A MINIMUM, before we are a contender because you just can't fix that many multiple issues in a shorter period of time. It's not going to happen. We have regressed as this season has progressed. And what passes for "progress" for some is a mirage. Only Buffalo Teams are ALWAYS multiple seasons away... every other team can manage a quick turn around except the teams in Buffalo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nextmanup Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 8 hours ago, zow2 said: I like Botts,, but if he sticks with Housley after this season I will begin to question him. It's not working. Phil coached the team to dead last place last season and they weren't supposed to be that awful. This year's club has a nice core of players and he's coaching them into the toilet...again. Whatever his tactics are,,scheme, strategy, etc.. is not working. He doesn't have the ability to push the right buttons. Geez, even Lehner and O'Reilly leave this staff and suddenly they get mentally "right" again. After the season, find a new coach..and get a better goaltender too. Our goalies get outplayed by the opponents goalie way too often. I have some hope for Linus that he will improve in the future. Yes, defense too...but they will have to get a new coach to get the D corrected I think. It's going to be really interesting to see just how bad we are down the stretch to finish the season. It's possible we could still finish with less points than the team had when GMTM and Bylsma were both fired. If Pegula could pull the trigger then, he can do it after this season too, maybe even on both of them. I don't know. I have a feeling Botterill is safe but maybe Pegula will direct Botts to fire Phil at season's end, if our point total is pathetically low enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 11 minutes ago, Nextmanup said: maybe Pegula will direct Botts to fire Phil at season's end, if our point total is pathetically low enough. They've already topped last year's 62-point total and are on pace for 86 points at the current rate. That won't be enough to make the playoffs, but a 24-point year-over-year gain would be progress... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boca BIlls Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 5 minutes ago, Lurker said: They've already topped last year's 62-point total and are on pace for 86 points at the current rate. That won't be enough to make the playoffs, but a 24-point year-over-year gain would be progress... Anything is progress from rock bottom... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfanmiami(oh) Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 (edited) 27 minutes ago, Lurker said: They've already topped last year's 62-point total and are on pace for 86 points at the current rate. That won't be enough to make the playoffs, but a 24-point year-over-year gain would be progress... If a bunch of those games during “the streak” went the other way, that gain wouldn’t be too much. Oh and in case it hasn’t been mentioned, haven’t won two in a row since Dec 11th & 13th ? Edited February 28, 2019 by billsfanmiami(oh) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnC Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, K-9 said: Agreed. There are multiple issues with this team, from management to coaches to players. And we are several seasons away, AT A MINIMUM, before we are a contender because you just can't fix that many multiple issues in a shorter period of time. It's not going to happen. We have regressed as this season has progressed. And what passes for "progress" for some is a mirage. I have said for a long time that the heart of the team's ills relates to the talent level. On the other hand I'm more upbeat in the near future than you are. I agree with you that as this season has advanced this team has regressed. But I also believe that this team is much better than last year's team. (That's not an achievement to crow about.) Last year's product was unwatchable. This year's team is more competitive even when it falls short. What I'm counting on is for our GM to make some smart moves comparable to the Skinner acquisition and more recently the Monsour pickup. It wouldn't be surprising if Risto, who has value on the market, will be auctioned off to the highest bidder to address some gaping holes on this roster, especially the building of an authentic second-line. Although this was never going to be a quick-fix the process is more advanced than you might believe. At least that is how I see it. Edited February 28, 2019 by JohnC additional information Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnC Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Attached is a link from a WGR column written by Joe DiBiase. It catalogues Tim Murray's decisions that have come to haunt this franchise. The mistake was to make expedient short term decisions that mortgaged the future. It's really upsetting how this franchise has been run. I'm more confident in our current GM. https://wgr550.radio.com/articles/opinion/sabres-still-paying-sins-tim-murray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 38 minutes ago, billsfanmiami(oh) said: If a bunch of those games during “the streak” went the other way, that gain wouldn’t be too much. Oh and in case it hasn’t been mentioned, haven’t won two in a row since Dec 11th & 13th ? Physical maturation of guys like Mittelstadt, Thompson, Dahlin, Olofsson, Asplund, Borgen, Nylander would have a big impact on the Sabres 2019-20 point total... http://forum.canucks.com/topic/383394-top-10-largest-team-improvements-long-read/ Honourable Mention: Buffalo Sabres – 1973-74 to 1974-75 The Sabres went from 32-34-12 up to an extremely dominant 49-16-15 record team in this stretch, finishing as part of a three-way tie with 113 points for first place. This improvement was largely due to the improvement of many players already in the Sabres’ system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 1 hour ago, Boca BIlls said: Anything is progress from rock bottom... How about becoming "average" then? That's a long way from rock bottom.... Team Statistics Team AvAge GP W L OL PTS PTS% GF GA SRS SOS TG/G PP PPO PP% PPA PPOA PK% SH SHA S S% SA SV% PDO SO Buffalo Sabres 26.5 63 29 26 8 66 .524 177 197 -0.24 0.05 5.94 36 192 18.75 29 165 82.42 2 8 2057 8.6 2064 .905 99.7 2 League Average 27.8 63 32 25 7 70 .554 190 190 6.02 38 191 20.02 38 191 79.98 6 6 1984 9.6 1984 .904 4 Team Analytics (at 5-on-5) Team S% SV% PDO CF CA CF% xGF xGA aGF aGA axDiff SCF SCA SCF% HDF HDA HDF% HDGF HDC% HDGA HDCO% Buffalo Sabres 7.1 .925 99.7 2820 2899 49.3 130.8 145.5 123 135 3 1207 1297 48.2 240 262 47.8 48 16.7 43 14.1 League Average 7.5 .925 2894 2894 138.1 138.1 127 127 1282 1282 283 283 46 14.0 46 14.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boca BIlls Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Lurker said: How about becoming "average" then? That's a long way from rock bottom.... Team Statistics Team AvAge GP W L OL PTS PTS% GF GA SRS SOS TG/G PP PPO PP% PPA PPOA PK% SH SHA S S% SA SV% PDO SO Buffalo Sabres 26.5 63 29 26 8 66 .524 177 197 -0.24 0.05 5.94 36 192 18.75 29 165 82.42 2 8 2057 8.6 2064 .905 99.7 2 League Average 27.8 63 32 25 7 70 .554 190 190 6.02 38 191 20.02 38 191 79.98 6 6 1984 9.6 1984 .904 4 Team Analytics (at 5-on-5) Team S% SV% PDO CF CA CF% xGF xGA aGF aGA axDiff SCF SCA SCF% HDF HDA HDF% HDGF HDC% HDGA HDCO% Buffalo Sabres 7.1 .925 99.7 2820 2899 49.3 130.8 145.5 123 135 3 1207 1297 48.2 240 262 47.8 48 16.7 43 14.1 League Average 7.5 .925 2894 2894 138.1 138.1 127 127 1282 1282 283 283 46 14.0 46 14.0 No, right now they are actually worse then they were last year. The last 28 games they are actually worse then they were last year this same time. They have regressed horribly and all the blind "They were better then last year" crap goes out the window. Being better than rock bottom when you werent even supposed to be that bad is not an accomplishment unless you love failure. Edited February 28, 2019 by Boca BIlls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 1 hour ago, Boca BIlls said: Being better than rock bottom when you werent even supposed to be that bad is not an accomplishment unless you love failure. Who said they weren't supposed to be "that bad?" The Vegas line on their 2018-19 points total was 80.5--which is just about what they'll do, even discounting the 10-game streak... Other predictions all had them around/under 80 points as well: http://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/24806917/nhl-buffalo-sabres-2018-19-season-preview-rankings-projections-bold-predictions-playoff-chances https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nhl/columnist/allen/2018/09/26/nhl-2018-19-season-point-record-projections/1369823002/ https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/nhl-team-by-team-over-under-point-projections-for-2018-19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apuszczalowski Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 1 hour ago, JohnC said: Attached is a link from a WGR column written by Joe DiBiase. It catalogues Tim Murray's decisions that have come to haunt this franchise. The mistake was to make expedient short term decisions that mortgaged the future. It's really upsetting how this franchise has been run. I'm more confident in our current GM. https://wgr550.radio.com/articles/opinion/sabres-still-paying-sins-tim-murray So hes saying losing a bunch of bottom half guys is coming back to haunt this franchise? They used those picks and prospects to get quality, better players in most cases. Somenof those guys have already been moved again to another team. I was never a Murray fan, and the problem wasnt that he tried to rush the rebuild, his problem was he typically overpaid in trades for guys he really wanted. The Sabres had the upper hand in dealing for Kane (Winnipeg needed to get rid of him, and Buffalo was the only one who would trade for him at that time to give Winnipeg assetts they could use for the playoffs that year. A 1st was an overpayment for a goaltender who wasnt an established starter in the league. Giving up picks for Vesseys rights was a waste. I think it's a bigger issue seeing them willing to dump good players for lesser returns and picks. They always seem to be giving up talent and then needing to find someone else to replace them instead adding to the talent level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 (edited) 3 hours ago, Lurker said: They've already topped last year's 62-point total and are on pace for 86 points at the current rate. That won't be enough to make the playoffs, but a 24-point year-over-year gain would be progress... That 86 point pace is strictly a function of the winning streak in November. They have to capture 20 out of the 38 remaining points to get there. That’s a .526 clip. Since the streak ended, they’ve captured 30 out of 78 available points or a .394 clip which is only marginally better than last year’s .378 point pace for the season. The 10th game of the streak occurred in game 25 and gave us 36 out of the 50 points available to that point; a sizzling .720 clip. It’s been a precipitous fall over the last 38 games to say the least. With no signs of improvement as the inability to win back to back games since December 13th suggests. Edited February 28, 2019 by K-9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 (edited) 39 minutes ago, K-9 said: That 86 point pace is strictly a function of the winning streak in November. They have to capture 20 out of the 38 remaining points to get there. They'll very likely get to 80 points, which is exactly what pre-season prognostications had them doing. Just need 14 out of 38 available points (0.368)... Edited February 28, 2019 by Lurker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnC Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 28 minutes ago, apuszczalowski said: So hes saying losing a bunch of bottom half guys is coming back to haunt this franchise? They used those picks and prospects to get quality, better players in most cases. Somenof those guys have already been moved again to another team. I was never a Murray fan, and the problem wasnt that he tried to rush the rebuild, his problem was he typically overpaid in trades for guys he really wanted. The Sabres had the upper hand in dealing for Kane (Winnipeg needed to get rid of him, and Buffalo was the only one who would trade for him at that time to give Winnipeg assetts they could use for the playoffs that year. A 1st was an overpayment for a goaltender who wasnt an established starter in the league. Giving up picks for Vesseys rights was a waste. I think it's a bigger issue seeing them willing to dump good players for lesser returns and picks. They always seem to be giving up talent and then needing to find someone else to replace them instead adding to the talent level. We are not in disagreement. We basically agree with you adding more examples how Murray failed as a GM. The draft picks and players he moved were for the most part second and third line players. The area in which this team has a glaring deficit is on the second and third lines where the production doesn't rise to being close to complementary. We have a quality first line with Jack-Skinner and Reinhart. We have little scoring punch to support the top line. You are right that the players that he dealt for and gave up future assets and picks eventually were dealt. That magnified his bad decisions because the end game calculation is that he gave up assets for nothing. And as you noted he overpaid in the trades and then the return eventually was lost. That's not exhibiting wise stewardship. Compare what was given up for Skinner and the most recent acquisition in Montour. Those deals were substantially better calculated deals than what Murray made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nextmanup Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 5 hours ago, Lurker said: They'll very likely get to 80 points, which is exactly what pre-season prognostications had them doing. Just need 14 out of 38 available points (0.368)... 80 points seems high to me. I have them coming in around 76-78 points. My point earlier was that GMTM and Bylsma were both fired after a 78 point season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 8 hours ago, Lurker said: They'll very likely get to 80 points, which is exactly what pre-season prognostications had them doing. Just need 14 out of 38 available points (0.368)... I guess there’s meeting expectations and then actually showing affirmative signs of progress. In other years with other teams, an 18 point improvement over the previous season might point to an upward trajectory but not this year. Not when the vast majority of the season has been played at the .394 clip we’ve seen the last three months. Not when a team can’t win two in a row since December 13th. Not when the same defensive lapses keep costing us games. There have been been some positives like Skinner, the continued development of Eichel and Reinhart, and the promising play of Dahlin to name a few. And the streak, fools gold that it turned out to be, was a blast and fun to rally around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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