Bills fall from 6th to 10th in Draft Order

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Even if they finished 5-11 and had the 6th or 7th overall pick, do you really think Beane is gonna stand pat right there? No way. Too many needs right now. I'm pretty sure he'll wanna trade down to collect some more picks, especially if they're targeting a specific offensive player because right now, of the top 15 players, like... 12 of them are on defense. Not that I'd mind them adding a defensive player, but I think it just makes more sense for them to try to add more picks and find the best value they can when they pick.

[Clemfield2622]

2 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

to the top 10?

 

do better.

 

Chicago 2016 Leonard Floyd

Cleveland 2014 Justin Gilbert

Miami 2013 Dion Jordan

Dallas 2012 Morris Claiborne

 

Is it common, no. Are we asking for a ridiculously specific example, yes.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

2 minutes ago, Clemfield2622 said:

Chicago 2016 Leonard Floyd

Cleveland 2014 Justin Gilbert

Miami 2013 Dion Jordan

Dallas 2012 Morris Claiborne

 

Is it common, no. Are we asking for a ridiculously specific example, yes.

Well, that's kind of my point.

 

It would take a RIDICULOUSLY SPECIFIC set of circumstances for a team to trade up into the top 10 for a defender. I'd rather take the better record, and have them NOT reach for an offensive player or even worse, take a defender.

 

[BuffaloHokie13]

15 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

I'd be interested in seeing data, but that strikes me as more of an aberration than a norm.

in 2018 the Saints gave up pick 27, pick 147, and a 2019 first to move to pick 14 and take Marcus Davenport.

in 2017 the Falcons gave up pick 31, pick 95, and pick 249 to move to pick 26 for Takkarist McKinley

in 2016 the Bears gave up pick 11 and pick 106 to move to pick 9 for Leonard Floyd

in 2015 the Broncos gave up pick 28, pick 143, a 2016 5th, and a Guard to move to pick 23 for Shane Ray

in 2013 the Dolphins gave up pick 12 and pick 42 to move to pick 3 for Dion Jordan

in 2012 the Eagles gave up pick 15, pick 114, and pick 172 to move to pick 12 for Fletcher Cox

 

There's been about 1 trade up a year for a pass rusher, but usually not in the top 10.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, BuffaloHokie13 said:

in 2018 the Saints gave up pick 27, pick 147, and a 2019 first to move to pick 14 and take Marcus Davenport.

in 2017 the Falcons gave up pick 31, pick 95, and pick 249 to move to pick 26 for Takkarist McKinley

in 2016 the Bears gave up pick 11 and pick 106 to move to pick 9 for Leonard Floyd

in 2015 the Broncos gave up pick 28, pick 143, a 2016 5th, and a Guard to move to pick 23 for Shane Ray

in 2013 the Dolphins gave up pick 12 and pick 42 to move to pick 3 for Dion Jordan

in 2012 the Eagles gave up pick 15, pick 114, and pick 172 to move to pick 12 for Fletcher Cox

 

There's been about 1 trade up a year for a pass rusher, but usually not in the top 10.

 

Follow up question: in any of those circumstances, do you feel the trade up was worth it for the drafted player?

 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

in 2018 the Saints gave up pick 27, pick 147, and a 2019 first to move to pick 14 and take Marcus Davenport.

in 2017 the Falcons gave up pick 31, pick 95, and pick 249 to move to pick 26 for Takkarist McKinley

in 2016 the Bears gave up pick 11 and pick 106 to move to pick 9 for Leonard Floyd

in 2015 the Broncos gave up pick 28, pick 143, a 2016 5th, and a Guard to move to pick 23 for Shane Ray

in 2013 the Dolphins gave up pick 12 and pick 42 to move to pick 3 for Dion Jordan

in 2012 the Eagles gave up pick 15, pick 114, and pick 172 to move to pick 12 for Fletcher Cox

 

There's been about 1 trade up a year for a pass rusher, but usually not in the top 10.

 

Thanks BH. Your memory is sharper than mine. The Falcons gave an extraordinary price to get from 31 to 26 for McKinley!!!

Just now, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Follow up question: in any of those circumstances, do you feel the trade up was worth it for the drafted player?

 

 

Fletcher Cox has been worth it about three times over.

Floyd has too for a reasonably small trade up price.

I think Davenport will be really good.... he is an incomplete at this stage but it was a big price.

 

Jordan, Ray, McKinley - no.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Thanks BH. Your memory is sharper than mine. The Falcons gave an extraordinary price to get from 31 to 26 for McKinley!!!

 

Fletcher Cox has been worth it about three times over.

Floyd has too for a reasonably small trade up price.

I think Davenport will be really good.... he is an incomplete at this stage but it was a big price.

 

Jordan, Ray, McKinley - no.

 

So, follow up question to the follow up question:

 

If YOU were a GM, would you trade up for a defensive player?

 

[Clemfield2622]

4 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Follow up question: in any of those circumstances, do you feel the trade up was worth it for the drafted player?

 

Do you think that will stop teams from doing it? McBeane has traded up 4 times in 2 drafts. 

 

They gave up a 5,3,2,2,3 for Zay, Dawkins, Allen and Edmunds. That's 4 potential guys who would likely be contributing. The Allen deal "had to" be done. The others didn't. They traded up because they thought those guys were better than other guys they could have gotten in their original spots. 

 

Draft picks are lottery tickets, and GM's will always treat them as such. Sometimes you'd rather have more tickets, and sometimes you will trade extra tickets for a guy you feel is a sure winner.

 

That will never stop.  

Edited December 17, 2018 by Clemfield2622

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Joe in Winslow said:

 

So, follow up question to the follow up question:

 

If YOU were a GM, would you trade up for a defensive player?

 

 

For a pass rusher, yes I would. But you have to get it right. I'd trade up for a pass rusher before I'd trade up for a wide receiver quite honestly.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, Clemfield2622 said:

Do you think that will stop teams from doing it? McBeane has traded up 4 times in 2 drafts. 

 

They gave up a 5,3,2,2,3 for Zay, Dawkins, Allen and Edmunds. That's 4 guys who would likely be contributing. The Allen deal "had to" be done. The others didn't. They traded up because they thought those guys were better than other guys they could have gotten in their original spots. 

 

Draft picks are lottery tickets, and GM's will always treat them as such. Sometimes you'd rather have more tickets, and sometimes you will trade extra tickets for a guy you feel is a sure winner.

 

That will never stop.  

 

Well, all things being equal, I'd rather not live with the risk of a reach for an offensive player or the drafting of a defender.

 

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

For a pass rusher, yes I would. But you have to get it right. I'd trade up for a pass rusher before I'd trade up for a wide receiver quite honestly.

 

Fair enough.

 

[GunnerBill]

Obviously I am not saying the Bills should trade up for a pass rusher in this draft.... though I do think we need to draft one early this year. First three rounds. Our only two credible pass rushers on this team are a combined age of 67.

Edited December 17, 2018 by GunnerBill

[BuffaloHokie13]

7 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

Follow up question: in any of those circumstances, do you feel the trade up was worth it for the drafted player?

Fletcher Cox is aboslutely worth it. I also like Leonard Floyd, though he's had a slower start than I expected. Too early to consider the most recent 2, so for me it's 50/50 as far as results.

[Johnny Hammersticks]

Adding a player like Greedy Williams or Josh Allen in the first round would not be a terrible thing.  I don’t know why some folks are so rock-headed about only drafting offense in the first round.  BPA with that first pick.

[Bob in STL]

There are plenty of good players to pick in the draft.  The losing has to stop.

 

I want to beat the Pats* in their shithole stadium and then I want to beat Miami at home for our fans.  Let's finish on a win streak - 7-9 in a rebuild year and 3-3 in the division.  Keep Josh Allen's progress going.

 

Time to stop the losing mentality. 

 

 

[Clemfield2622]

4 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Well, all things being equal, I'd rather not live with the risk of a reach for an offensive player or the drafting of a defender.

 

Beane has already stated he is BPA. They will not reach for need.

 

As unpopular as it may be, if a defender is the top player on the board, they're taking a defender. That's where trading down factors in. If they have 3-4 guys rated the same and can trade down, add assets and still get a guy they like at say 16 as they would at 10, that's a win-win.

 

This is not a year where the draft prospects align with our needs. My desire to be at the top of the board is purely for trade down reasons. Would you rather finish 6-10 and pick 14 , or have finished 4-12, and pick 4th? And then theoretically trade down 1 or 2 times to 14 and add 3 or 4 more assets? That's how you fill the holes in the roster.

Edited December 17, 2018 by Clemfield2622

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, Clemfield2622 said:

theoretically

 

Key word there. Takes two to tango. Four if you're talking two trade downs.

 

 

[CLTbills]

1 hour ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

This is going to seem contrarian, especially coming from me....but I disagree. Why?

 

The Bills need OFFENSIVE help in the draft, and from what I've read/heard just about everyone in the top 10 is a defensive star. So rather than have them reach, I'd like to see them drop to take O help.

 

I agree 100%. I guess the thinking is, if you had a higher pick you could then trade down and gain additional picks... but at the end of the day... just win baby. The difference between drafting 6th and 15th is not the difference between going 12-4 and 4-12 next year. If it is, we’ve got bigger problems. 

[NoHuddleKelly12]

I don’t care about draft position right now. I do care about establishing a winning culture, JA’s confidence (and by extension, that of his young wideouts), and momentum to flash for potential established FA’s so maybe the overpayments aren’t as bad. For the draft, it’s a highly speculative science even in the best of slots (just ask the Brownies over the past decade until finally hitting the lotto this year) and I have a feeling we won’t stay pat wherever we end up regardless. Too many unknowns right now to worry about. Just win baby!!

[Clemfield2622]

1 minute ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Key word there. Takes two to tango. Four if you're talking two trade downs.

 

 

Yep. 

 

Again, it was for QB's, so it was different, but look at last year. The Colts added 2 2nd's and went from 3 to 6

 

The Bills traded 2 2nd's to go from 12 to 7.

 

So THEORETICALLY, a team like the Colts could have gone from 3 to 12 and added 4 2nd round picks. Obviously they chose not to and added Nelson, and they have been much improved. But the ability to do it was there. There is really no better chance to stock your cupboards than to be picking high and know you DON'T need a QB. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

2 minutes ago, Clemfield2622 said:

Yep. 

 

Again, it was for QB's, so it was different, but look at last year. The Colts added 2 2nd's and went from 3 to 6

 

The Bills traded 2 2nd's to go from 12 to 7.

 

So THEORETICALLY, a team like the Colts could have gone from 3 to 12 and added 4 2nd round picks. Obviously they chose not to and added Nelson, and they have been much improved. But the ability to do it was there. There is really no better chance to stock your cupboards than to be picking high and know you DON'T need a QB. 

 

And which QB is going to have teams giving up that kind of bounty? and Qhich teams are going to be looking for a QB?

Because REALLY that's where the big "trade-down" bounties are manufactured, as you said.

 

Edited December 17, 2018 by Joe in Winslow