The Ringer: How the 2018 Draft Proved That the Modern NFL Doesn’t Exist

[plenzmd1]

15 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 

 

Rosen could get lit up in preseason and really start to wonder if it's worth it. 

1

I have never understood this argument. He has lots of money so that proves he may not want to play football..but all these guys who have made over $100M if their lifetimes...and it is THEIR money not their parents...they still have incentive to keep playing??? Just makes no sense to me.

3 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I get all of that and have read the relevant articles, but my point is that he's not simply a RB when it comes to projections. A bell-cow RB who can also be a 75 catch/10 ypc/6 receiving TDs receiver is a rare talent and should not be compared to Leonard Fournette.

Levion Bell agrees with you!!!!!  

 

 

[GoBills808]

Props to any of you who can stomach an article that goes out of its way to mention that the Patriots are the 'smartest team in the league' TWICE.

[Chuck Wagon]

16 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

I have never understood this argument. He has lots of money so that proves he may not want to play football..but all these guys who have made over $100M if their lifetimes...and it is THEIR money not their parents...they still have incentive to keep playing??? Just makes no sense to me.

Levion Bell agrees with you!!!!!  

 

 

 

 

I didn't say a word about money.  My argument is solely based on the head trauma he's already received and having a world renown spine surgeon for a father.  If there's anyone I expect to be plugged in to the medical downside of playing football, it's Rosen.

Edited May 1, 2018 by Chuck Wagon

[HappyDays]

6 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Certainly a valid example. And interestingly enough, his QB coach his rookie year was Dirk Koetter. Not exactly a poor choice.

 

Yeah that's the example that scares me the most. That one and Kyle Boller (he scored a 27 on the Wonderlic, not particularly high but adequate). That being said we're talking about a very small sample size and picking any random 1st round QB would not you about a 33% chance of success. I have to just trust McDermott, Beane, and Daboll have a specific plan for Allen. One thing you can say about Gabbert is he had a bunch of injuries and coaching changes that might have hindered his development. If we develop Allen right he could be the one guy that beats the analytics.

[Mikey152]

Well, I guess we should have just drafted JT Barrett...after all, he was rated higher than Allen, Darnold and Rosen by PFF.  Better yet, we should have just kept Tyrod Taylor...his analytics show he is a top half of the NFL quarterback.  Maybe even top 10.

 

Analytics have their place.  But football isn't like other sports.  Sample sizes are too small and it's impossible to control for all the variables.  Not to mention most of these metrics are gathered via subjective analysis by people who have no business or experience grading "tape".  It's a complete farce masquerading as "advanced intelligence".  It's also full of confirmation bias, selected sets, and tons of other statistical no-no's designed to get clicks.

 

I see it as a way for people who don't have any real understanding of football and it's concepts to feel like they understand the game because they can relate more to stats.

Edited May 1, 2018 by Mikey152

[mannc]

27 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

This is a myth. Arm strength is not just about throwing the ball far. It's more about beating defenders in tight window throws. It isn't enough to have a strong arm obviously, but having an insanely talented arm like Allen's allows you to make throws all over the field that no one else in the league can make. I'm shocked that anyone who covers football for a living would say arm strength isn't an important trait. It just isn't the most important trait.

Yep.  It also forces the defense to defend the entire field, which opens up the running game, the short passing game, etc

[HappyDays]

3 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

his analytics show he is a top half of the NFL quarterback.  Maybe even top 10.

 

This isn't true. His first year the stats put Tyrod as top 10, but the past 2 years they showed him for exactly who he was - an inconsistent and below average NFL QB. Analytics and stats do have value and overall they paint an accurate picture. But there isn't a ton of data that suggests college stats translate to the pros so we can only work with the film that we have.

[Boatdrinks]

1 hour ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

I disagree. Fitz makes horrid decisions on a fairly regular basis as an NFL QB and he's very intelligent. 

I agree. I've always thought of Firz as a pretty smart QB except when it comes to knowing his abilities. A gunslingers mentality is fine, until you realize you don't have a gun. 

[Mikey152]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

This isn't true. His first year the stats put Tyrod as top 10, but the past 2 years they showed him for exactly who he was - an inconsistent and below average NFL QB. Analytics and stats do have value and overall they paint an accurate picture. But there isn't a ton of data that suggests college stats translate to the pros so we can only work with the film that we have.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/21251222/the-great-debate-buffalo-bills-quarterback-tyrod-taylor

[Boatdrinks]

16 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

Well, I guess we should have just drafted JT Barrett...after all, he was rated higher than Allen, Darnold and Rosen by PFF.  Better yet, we should have just kept Tyrod Taylor...his analytics show he is a top half of the NFL quarterback.  Maybe even top 10.

 

Analytics have their place.  But football isn't like other sports.  Sample sizes are too small and it's impossible to control for all the variables.  Not to mention most of these metrics are gathered via subjective analysis by people who have no business or experience grading "tape".  It's a complete farce masquerading as "advanced intelligence".  It's also full of confirmation bias, selected sets, and tons of other statistical no-no's designed to get clicks.

 

I see it as a way for people who don't have any real understanding of football and it's concepts to feel like they understand the game because they can relate more to stats.

100%. Analytics may work better in sports other than football. It's just too different a game with too many other variables. Baseball, for example is more like a skills competition. " Advanced metrics / analytics" are really just a bunch of skinny jeans wearing latte - sipping cyber-nerds trying to take over and destroy a game that is the last bastion of manhood / gladiatordom amongst the major sports. 

[MrEpsYtown]

I completely disagree with this article.

 

Old school stats like yards and completion percentage are the one that look bad for Allen. Saying Mayfield is gritty, a winner, has the it factor...that's old school crap. Mayfiled's amazing completion percentage also involved throwing a million force and bubble screens. That is an old school stat that says very little. Parcells' rules about being a senior blah blah is old school.

 

To me, Allen is the analytics pick with a little bit of old school. He is the prototype. Despite the fact that he struggled a bit at school, the analytics numbers project him to the guy who can be really special (released time, velocity, touch...all those sports science numbers). I think Siimmons' message here is all wrong. 

[GoBills808]

35 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

This is a myth. Arm strength is not just about throwing the ball far. It's more about beating defenders in tight window throws. It isn't enough to have a strong arm obviously, but having an insanely talented arm like Allen's allows you to make throws all over the field that no one else in the league can make. I'm shocked that anyone who covers football for a living would say arm strength isn't an important trait. It just isn't the most important trait.

Right. The phrase 'arm talent' doesn't simply refer to a person's ability to throw a ball far downfield, which can be accomplished by simply having a lot of natural strength in the shoulder/torso and good technique. It's referring to the ability to harness the fast-twitch muscles in your throwing arm to deliver the ball where it needs to be at times when you're off platform or simply need a combination of velocity, accuracy, and trajectory on release that simple throwing strength doesn't afford. There's a fluidity in the throwing motions of guys with this characteristic. I can personally see it most clearly in Cutler and Rodgers who imo have the most pure throwing abilities in the league...some guys refer to it as a QB's ability to 'spin' it. I don't see Allen on that level (yet, anyway) but he's definitely got the potential for it and combined with his natural strength I think there's a lot to be excited about.

[Mikey152]

For all you Stat lovers out there...

 

On 3rd down and 7-9 yards (aka the money down/distance for quarterbacks) in 2017

 

Player A:  10/24  for 132 yards and a pick.  8 first downs.

Player B:  13/22 for 124 yards and a TD.  7 first downs.

Player C:  15/22 for 236 yards and a TD.  10 first downs.

Player D:  16/28 for 162 yards and a TD.  10 first downs.

 

Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, Allen....and that doesn't even factor in running.

Edited May 1, 2018 by Mikey152

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I completely disagree with this article.

 

Old school stats like yards and completion percentage are the one that look bad for Allen. Saying Mayfield is gritty, a winner, has the it factor...that's old school crap. Mayfiled's amazing completion percentage also involved throwing a million force and bubble screens. That is an old school stat that says very little. Parcells' rules about being a senior blah blah is old school.

 

To me, Allen is the analytics pick with a little bit of old school. He is the prototype. Despite the fact that he struggled a bit at school, the analytics numbers project him to the guy who can be really special (released time, velocity, touch...all those sports science numbers). I think Siimmons' message here is all wrong. 

 

Allen is anything but an analytics pick.  He's an old school scouting pick based on projection/measurables over production/analytics and I'm not sure why you called out Simmons because he didn't author the piece. 

[BillsFan17]

3 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

For all you Stat lovers out there...

 

On 3rd down and 7-9 yards (aka the money down/distance for quarterbacks) in 2017

 

Player A:  10/24  for 132 yards and a pick.  8 first downs.

Player B:  13/22 for 124 yards and a TD.  7 first downs.

Player C:  15/22 for 236 yards and a TD.  10 first downs.

Player D:  16/28 for 162 yards and a TD.  10 first downs.

 

Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, Allen....and that doesn't even factor in running.

Little things like that are parts that were over looked by folks like my self who was a massive anti-Allen guy leading up to the draft. Thank you for posting this! I'm coming around.

[Mikey152]

1 minute ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Allen is anything but an analytics pick.  He's an old school scouting pick based on projection/measurables over production/analytics and I'm not sure why you called out Simmons because he didn't author the piece. 

 

How is past performance "analytics" any more advanced analysis than things like release time, ball velocity, etc?  Especially when performance based metrics are completely interdependent?

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, Mikey152 said:

 

How is past performance "analytics" any more advanced analysis than things like release time, ball velocity, etc?  Especially when performance based metrics are completely interdependent?

 

A QB can have all of those attributes, but what do they mean if the game is too fast and complex such that correct decisions aren't made that allow them to be leveraged into consistent and sustained success.  Funny how all of Allen's warts are magically disappearing now that he's been drafted by the Bills. 

[MrEpsYtown]

1 minute ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Allen is anything but an analytics pick.  He's an old school scouting pick based on projection/measurables over production/analytics and I'm not sure why you called out Simmons because he didn't author the piece. 

 

Oops I saw he tweeted and didn't write it. Sorry Bill

 

I disagree and maybe I'm wrong but I feel like analytics is centered around projection. Like in baseball the Mariners took a fast second baseman and looked at the ground he can cover and arm strength and such and they moved him to center field and he is killing it. It was all based on speed and projection. That's what WAR and stuff is all about.  

 

To me old school is crap like he's gritty, he's a winner, people follow him, completion percentage etc. Mayfield is the old school pick. He wins, he's a senior, his girlfriend is hot or whatever. 

 

To me analytics is projecting the throws Allen can make in the NFL, ball velocity, release time, release point, speed, etc. Playing on a crappy team hurts his old school stats, but what he can do in an NFL offense is about analyzing the throws he can make and such.

 

That is how I see it. 

[Mikey152]

5 minutes ago, BillsFan17 said:

Little things like that are parts that were over looked by folks like my self who was a massive anti-Allen guy leading up to the draft. Thank you for posting this! I'm coming around.

 

The fact of the matter is, Allen's numbers on third down look remarkably similar to Rosen's.  The big difference in their stats is that Rosen threw the ball 213 times on first down, and completed 141 (66.2%) for 1942 yards and 15/4.  Allen attempted 90(!) first down throws, completed 56 (62.2%) for 723 yards and 9/2.  

[Lurker]

1 minute ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I disagree and maybe I'm wrong but I feel like analytics is centered around projection.

 

I agree to some extent, but the biggest projection I see with Allen is a conviction that his mechanical flaws can be corrected by "good coaching."   That's old school NFL thinking in a nutshell...