D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: I agree. Darnold to Browns and Allen to Jets. I extend to the conversation; the Bills acquire pick 2 and draft Josh Rosen ahead of Josh Allen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyrod's friend Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: I agree. Darnold to Browns and Allen to Jets. On certain days I can see the Allen bias for the Jets. He's physically similar to guys they tend to favor. But culturally, coming from the city, I just see the Mayfield/Namath attitude comparison as too strong for them to overlook. By everything I've read, Mayfield is a day one starter and the Jets FO has failed around the QB position so much they need to not be wrong on this one. I think the Jets board would go Mayfield/Rosen then Allen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoFFacet Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Just now, thebandit27 said: First, you need to look at the difference between opinion and fact. Allen, as I said, made more tight-window throws than any other QB in the class. He cannot do that if he's inaccurate. What you're talking about is completion percentage, which is affected by far more than accuracy (but that's a whole different discussion that's probably too nuanced for someone that won't decipher opinion from fact). As for mentally slow, well, he did outscore the QB field in the Wonderlic test, so that must make Mayfield and Rosen mental midgets, right? Or are you referring to on-field processing speed? That's got far more to do with experience in a system and comfort level with the people around him, but again, we're getting way too far into subject for what you're ready to discuss. Do yourself a favor and stop now. You've said some really silly things (he's a laughingstock among the analyst community, Mayfield is everyone's QB1) that can easily be disproved with a link or two (that I'm happy to provide if you want to continue), and the further we go down this rabbit hole, the worse this has the potential to get. Let's just review how we got here. This board has apparently been permeated with poor draft "analysis" from moronic pundits, the result being that people such as yourself believe in laughable things such as that Allen is any good. You also believe yourself to be a member of some majority or consensus. All hilariously wrong. The vast majority of rational analysts looking at the draft class through an objective lens and using empirical data think that Mayfield is top-3 if not #1, and Allen will bust. Obviously mentally slow = on-field processing speed. You can't explain that away with whatever word salad you just tried to use. I can't believe you even uttered the word wonderlic, a test everyone knows is non-predictive of NFL success and people only ever bring up when their guy does well on it. No offense but you come across as a very pompous individual who is ignorant of his own ignorance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said: Ledyard said he would take Darnold in the 1st due to positional value but gave him a day 2 grade. Apparently, many people are discovering that the emperor has no clothes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4merper4mer Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: How is him being slow a documented fact? I don't know how someone can document "slow". With that said, have you seen Leighton Vander Doodle interviewed? You can't watch for more than 3 seconds without being reminded of the catcher from the Major League movies. Stills hat isn't truly documenting anything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maryland-bills-fan Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 26 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: Very, very few people think Allen sucks. There is a faction of folks that don't think he's got the skill set to be an NFL QB. Most folks see the raw ability, but vary in opinion regarding how much honing of his skill set it'll take to make him successful, and what type of offense he can operate efficiently. I disagree. If he can not show sufficient accuracy playing in college, how is that going to improve against better cornerbacks and pass rushers and more complicated schemes? I would be scared of drafting him and having to depend upon him. 2nd round at best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4merper4mer Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, mannc said: Apparently, many people are discovering that the emperor has no clothes. Kim Jung QB part deux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 (edited) My current 2 most likely scenarios: #1 Cle Darnold, Trade(Buff) Rosen, NYJ Allen, Cle Barkley, Den Chubb #2 Cle Allen, NYG Darnold, NYJ Rosen, Cle Barkley, Den Chubb In both scenarios, Mayfield goes somewhere between 6-10 in a trade up. Mayfield is ahead of Allen by my ranking , but goes lower. JMO Edited April 5, 2018 by horned dogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, SoFFacet said: Let's just review how we got here. This board has apparently been permeated with poor draft "analysis" from moronic pundits, the result being that people such as yourself believe in laughable things such as that Allen is any good. You also believe yourself to be a member of some majority or consensus. All hilariously wrong. The vast majority of rational analysts looking at the draft class through an objective lens and using empirical data think that Mayfield is top-3 if not #1, and Allen will bust. Obviously mentally slow = on-field processing speed. You can't explain that away with whatever word salad you just tried to use. I can't believe you even uttered the word wonderlic, a test everyone knows is non-predictive of NFL success and people only ever bring up when their guy does well on it. No offense but you come across as a very pompous individual who is ignorant of his own ignorance. Okay then. Why don't you go ahead and show me the "rational analysts" that have Mayfield as their QB1? I'll wait. While you're digging those up, go ahead and show me the "rational analysts" that say that Allen shouldn't be drafted at all, because if he "sucks" like most people think he does (as you originally stated), that's what they'd say. And yes, there are a great number of analysts that have Allen as one of their top QBs in the draft. Among them are guys like Mayock (2nd ranked QB), Kiper (1), McShay (2), Pete Prisco (1), Matt Miller (2), and many others. You also might want to check yourself before you accuse me of subscribing to group-think; I've published my game tape breakdown on this board for the top 6 QBs in the draft and made my rankings well-known. I don't copy anyone's work. And no, mentally slow does not mean on-field processing speed; it means dumb. Look it up. It's not my fault that you used poor wording. If you had even a scintilla of the common sense that you believe yourself to possess, you'd (a) stop overstating your point to the point of inanity, and (b) realize whose post reeks of pomposity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: I don't copy anyone's work. Does that ever happen on this site? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 15 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said: I disagree. If he can not show sufficient accuracy playing in college, how is that going to improve against better cornerbacks and pass rushers and more complicated schemes? I would be scared of drafting him and having to depend upon him. 2nd round at best. The same way that guys like Matthew Stafford, Josh McCown, Matt Ryan, and Carson Palmer went from sub-60% passers in college to efficient, accurate passers in the NFL. Folks act like improving accuracy is either rare or impossible; check out the numbers sometime, as it's actually quite common. As for 2nd round and Allen, well, you may as well take him off your board. He's very unlikely to be there in round 2, and even if he were, why take the guy if you don't think he can improve? I've said it repeatedly: if you don't see franchise potential in a guy, don't take him until day 3. His flaws aren't going to become more correctable if you take him in round 2. 11 minutes ago, horned dogs said: My current 2 most likely scenarios: #1 Cle Darnold, Trade(Buff) Rosen, NYJ Allen, Cle Barkley, Den Chubb #2 Cle Allen, NYG Darnold, NYJ Rosen, Cle Barkley, Den Chubb In both scenarios, Mayfield goes somewhere between 6-10 in a trade up. Mayfield is ahead of Allen by my ranking , but goes lower. JMO I think you're mostly on track here. My QB rankings definitely don't match up with the order that they're going to be picked 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyrod's friend Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 32 minutes ago, SoFFacet said: As I said, Ledyard is low on Mayfield, who is the QB1 according to most informed analysts. I'm a big time believer in Mayfield ... and so to me, Ledyard seems low. But ... really? You don't think that goes to Josh Rosen (or Darnold)? Which analysts are you reading that say Mayfield? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 23 minutes ago, SoFFacet said: Let's just review how we got here. This board has apparently been permeated with poor draft "analysis" from moronic pundits, the result being that people such as yourself believe in laughable things such as that Allen is any good. You also believe yourself to be a member of some majority or consensus. All hilariously wrong. The vast majority of rational analysts looking at the draft class through an objective lens and using empirical data think that Mayfield is top-3 if not #1, and Allen will bust. Obviously mentally slow = on-field processing speed. You can't explain that away with whatever word salad you just tried to use. I can't believe you even uttered the word wonderlic, a test everyone knows is non-predictive of NFL success and people only ever bring up when their guy does well on it. No offense but you come across as a very pompous individual who is ignorant of his own ignorance. With regard to QBs, in the modern era, the Wonderlic has been very accurately predictive of NFL success. Since 2000, every QB scoring less than 16 has gone onto having an unsuccessful career as a starting NFL QB. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said: Ledyard said he would take Darnold in the 1st due to positional value but gave him a day 2 grade. He likes him "a lot" too. Yet he has 4 RBs ahead of him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Just now, Mr. WEO said: He likes him "a lot" too. Yet he has 4 RBs ahead of him? I think you are confusing with "where they should be drafted" to "first round grade". First round grade meaning from this perspective a true blue chipper. Doesn't mean that the supposed blue chipper should be selected over the QB prospect just that he believes the blue chipper will go on to have a more successful NFL career than the QB prospect. Make sense? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: He likes him "a lot" too. Yet he has 4 RBs ahead of him? What’s really funny is speculation that the Browns or Giants might use the first or second pick on someone who might be the third best RB in the class. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyrod's friend Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: The same way that guys like Matthew Stafford, Josh McCown, Matt Ryan, and Carson Palmer went from sub-60% passers in college to efficient, accurate passers in the NFL. Folks act like improving accuracy is either rare or impossible; check out the numbers sometime, as it's actually quite common. well ... it depends on the point that is being made here. A college QB can go from completing 56% of his college passes to 60-61% in the pros. Sure; some of that is talent surrounding him, some of it has to do with the offense and what the QB is being called on to achieve. But one in the pros, the numbers don't support your thesis - if you are using completion percentage as the guide. Using your examples of Ryan, Stafford and Palmer. Matthew Stafford Passing Statistics for Career Games 2009 to 2014 Games Passing Passing Year Tm G GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% Lng Y/A AY/A Y/C Y/G Rate QBR Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD Average 13 13 308 516 3619 22 14 27 183 Per 16 Games 16 16 384 644 4512 27 18 33 228 2009-2014 DET 77 77 35-42-0 1848 3099 59.6 21714 131 4.2 85 2.7 87 7.0 6.6 11.8 282.0 83.6 161 1096 6.32 5.95 4.9 Stafford isn't unusual. For six years his completion percentage was remarkably consistent. Matt Ryan was remarkably consistent around a 60% level. Palmer had a single good year (not unusual) but again, very consistent throughout his time up to his age 33 season. The 62.5% completion rate was within 1% plus/minus nearly the entire time. Carson Palmer Passing Statistics for Career Games 2004 to 2012 Games Passing Passing Year Tm G GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% Lng Y/A AY/A Y/C Y/G Rate QBR Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD Average 14 13 285 457 3274 21 14 23 159 Per 16 Games 2004-2012 CIN,RAI 122 121 54-67-0 2568 4110 62.5 29465 189 4.6 130 3.2 78 7.2 6.7 11.5 241.5 86.2 203 1434 6.50 6.02 4.7 Can Allen improve his accuracy from 56% to 61% in the pros? Possibly. You might find some examples of QBs that made that jump in accuracy after they got to the pros. Everything I've looked at leads me to believe that accuracy, as defined by completion percentage ... well, you better be pretty much happy with what you see when they get to professional level, 'cause it's going to be awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Magox said: I think you are confusing with "where they should be drafted" to "first round grade". First round grade meaning from this perspective a true blue chipper. Doesn't mean that the supposed blue chipper should be selected over the QB prospect just that he believes the blue chipper will go on to have a more successful NFL career than the QB prospect. Make sense? I did get that, but by nearly every account, Darnold is a great athlete and solid first round talent. But in this guy's mind, a quartet of RBs grade out higher than Darnold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said: I did get that, but by nearly every account, Darnold is a great athlete and solid first round talent. But in this guy's mind, a quartet of RBs grade out higher than Darnold? That's fine, you disagree with his view which could very well be right but that isn't how you framed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 16 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: The same way that guys like Matthew Stafford, Josh McCown, Matt Ryan, and Carson Palmer went from sub-60% passers in college to efficient, accurate passers in the NFL. Folks act like improving accuracy is either rare or impossible; check out the numbers sometime, as it's actually quite common. So you're saying that there is hope for Nate? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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